Larbre34 wrote: » Put on Sky News now. Tells you everything you need to know about where we are.
trellheim wrote: » Latesthttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46784643
Leroy42 wrote: » So what do people think TM needs to get from the EU in order to get the deal agreed in HoC and what hope does she have of getting it?
Zubeneschamali wrote: » I see 3 possibilities:May runs down the clock, and MPs give in and pass her deal to avoid No Deal as the deadline looms. May tries this, an MPs do not give in and the UK crashes out with no deal. Finally, May tries this, MPs do not give in and at the last minute Parliament passes a vote instructing May to withdraw A50. I don't see how we get an election or a 2nd referendum before April, and I can't see the EU27 agreeing to extend the deadline for time for more shenanigans at Westminster.
They can get language, and I'd bet clarifying / softening language has already been worked on by the EU team - they're just withholding it to the last moment so it can be spun by May as an "achievement" before the vote. Language isn't enough for them of course, but so be it. The deal took the guts of two years to negotiate and they had plenty of time to offer substantive output. On towards the cliff edge we go...
Mrs May, who was at Alder Hey hospital in Liverpool to launch a 10-year plan for the NHS, said that after delaying the vote on her Brexit deal last month, she attended the European Council, where there was "some further movement from the EU". She said she had been speaking with European leaders in the intervening period. "In the coming days what we'll set out is not just about the EU but also about what we can do domestically, so we will be setting out measures which will be specific to Northern Ireland; we will be setting out proposals for a greater role for Parliament as we move into the next stage of negotiations," she said. "And we're continuing to work on further assurances, on further undertakings from the European Union in relation to the concern that's been expressed by Parliamentarians."
Hurrache wrote: » I think it was in the Guardian article which mentioned the Irish-German talks.
Leroy42 wrote: » read an article this morning (can't recall where!) but among the quotes were from EU members basically saying that they had given quite a lot to TM, including the UK wide CU, yet had received nothing in return and feel that giving more will no result in any change, only a demand for even more.
First Up wrote: » I don't there is much point trying to predict where UK politics is going. Both main parties are so badly split it hardly matters whose in power as neither can control their dissenting MPs. Opinion polls based only on party preference don't and can't reflect that.
Enzokk wrote: » You say there is nowhere to go, but there is the other option of actively trying to get a second referendum or to cancel article 50. They would then not be supporting Theresa May's deal and would not be allowing for a hard Brexit. At least if they did that they could get those Tory rebels on their side who do not want a hard Brexit either and would have a majority in the HoC as well for this course of action.
Russman wrote: » Interesting that it seems Labour have nowhere to go really. As you say, if they support May's deal they'll be punished by their own, and if they "allow" a no-deal they'll be punished by everyone. With a better leader they could have really made gains over the last 12 months and almost banished the Tories for a few election cycles, but Corbyn is so Brexity himself he just can't do it.
Peregrinus wrote: » Corbyn knows that he is cruising to victory at the next general election. (Does the present Tory government look to you like one that could win a fourth successive general election? No, me neither.) The tide is flowing strongly Labour's way; all he has to do is not bugger it up. He doesn't need to plunge the country into chaos in order to win the next general election. While plunging the country into chaos would probably give him a more decisive election victory, it also gives him a huge problem once he is in office, and makes it much more difficult for him to do the things he wants to do. So, given his druthers, he'd avoid a no-deal Brexit. Having said that, there is a risk that if Labour starts to bleed support from disappointed Remainers who finally realise that Corbyn is not playing a clever game to deliver Remain or a soft Brexit, Corbyn may realise that he is in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and may think, yes, he has to manouvre the Tories into a no-deal Brexit in order to be confident of winning the next election. But it's certainly not his optimal strategy.
demfad wrote: » I disagree about Labours chances in the next election. Polling reveals they are currently 6 points behind one of the most shambolic Governments in modern British history by accounts. It gets worse though: When asked how Labour would fare in the next election if they failed to resist Brexit the gap opens up to 17% 43:26. I believe Corbyn wants May's deal, his not asking her any Brexit related PMs Questions on the day of the deal indicates this. Maybe he feels that after Brexit Labour will get the voters to guarantee avoiding a Tory Brexit. But he is risking Singapore in Europe if the polls are reflecting that Labour supporters will punish Labour.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
Lorries have begun their second practice run from Manston Airport in Kent to Dover as part of the British government's first major test of its plans for UK border disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit. 'Operation Brock' is designed to test out the disused airfield near Ramsgate as a mass holding bay to ease congestion. The Heavy Goods Vehicles lined up on the runway before following a route in convoy from 8am, and then again at 11am, to Dover. The 32km journey usually takes around 30 minutes depending on traffic.
prawnsambo wrote: » Either way, that will look bad for Labour as enablers of a brexit a majority of Labour supporters are against. If they vote agianst her deal, then it's hard brexit and again a loss of support. He could engineer a situation where some Labour MPs support May's deal or he allows a free vote, but that's a risky enough approach as well.
Seth Brundle wrote: » Bloody hell... Not sure who predicted the "hundreds of thousands" of financial jobs moving but nonetheless, this shows that the whole thing is damaging for the UK.https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/assets-worth-1tn-to-shift-from-uk-to-eu-due-to-brexit-1.3749964
The expected mass exodus of UK-based bankers because of Brexit could bring up to 100,000 new jobs to Germany's Frankfurt region over the next four years, according to a study published on Friday.
Laois_Man wrote: » FYI, in its latest poll, taken over Christmas, YouGov gives the Tory's a 4% lead! That's more than they had in 2017 election results.
Assets worth nearly £800 billion ($1 trillion) are being moved from Britain to new financial hubs in the European Union ahead of Brexit, consultancy EY said on Monday. ... “The closer we get to March 29th without a deal, the more assets will be transferred and headcount hired locally or relocated,” Omar Ali, UK financial services leader at EY, said. ... Around 2,000 new European roles have been created by financial services companies in response to Brexit, with Dublin, Luxembourg, Frankfurt and Paris the most popular locations, EY said. Forecasts of hundreds of thousands of UK financial jobs moving to the EU have not materialised, and the Bank of England expects about 4,000 jobs to have moved by March 29. “Whilst roles will no doubt move from the UK, many firms are only moving those employees deemed essential and are hiring locally given the expense of relocation,” Ali said.
Peregrinus wrote: » Corbyn knows that he is cruising to victory at the next general election. (Does the present Tory government look to you like one that could win a fourth successive general election? No, me neither.)
RobMc59 wrote: » Vince Cable makes a lot of sense but would possibly be a wasted vote as he hasn't been able to repair the damage done by Clegg.
prawnsambo wrote: » The Lib-Dems are a no brexit party. And coincidentally are the only party to make gains in the last polls.
Igotadose wrote: » But, where's the "No Brexit" party? That's the problem - there's no other group standing up and saying "vote us in, we will withdraw A50."
