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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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ThePanjandrum

10000maniacs wrote: »

No I didn't forget anything.
As the UK will have no trade deals with anyone when they leave, there will be no quotas on any WTO trade deals as there will be no trade deals until the UK negotiates trade deals.
Also, I am clearly not advocating Boris Johnsons suggestion if you read my post. However it is a possible option.

The existing EU quotas have been split with the UK. The UK has quotas included in the schedules.

ThePanjandrum

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well I haven't. Please provide an example.

Google it, there are plenty of examples, for instance this one

Costs and Benefits of Stopping the Clock - How Airlines Profit from Changes in the EU ETS
From 2012 flights to and from EU airports have been included in the EU emissions trading system (ETS). In November 2012 the Commission decided to ‘stop the clock’ and exempt emissions from intercontinental flights. Because airlines will have anticipated incurring costs on these routes and will have raised fares or levied surcharges to cover them, the exemption provides them with a windfall profit. This report estimates the windfall to be between EUR 700 and 1,400 million. EU airlines are expected to reap the largest share of the windfall (55%), followed by US airlines (13%).

You notice that the clock was stopped in 2012. It hasn't restarted yet.

10000maniacs

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

You forget that we have quotas on our WTO schedules to help protect our own farming industry and quotas can also be written into trade deals. Many of the imported foodstuffs aren't grown in the UK anyway so reducing tariffs on oranges and bananas, for example, will not affect our own farms

No I didn't forget anything.
As the UK will have no trade deals with anyone when they leave, there will be no quotas on any WTO trade deals as there will be no trade deals until the UK negotiates trade deals.
Also, I am clearly not advocating Boris Johnsons suggestion if you read my post. However it is a possible option.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Very rarely are these last minute negotiations bound by such a fixed deadline requiring national parliamentary approvals or whatever.

Usually if something isn't agreed at one summit it just drags on until the next.

Indeed, those are negotiations between existing member states and everyone knows there will be more summits. A country leaving the EU forever and with a strict deadline to leave is a completely different kettle of fish.

ThePanjandrum

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's going ahead according to her today.

Exactly

ThePanjandrum

cml387 wrote: »

Er, no. Have you?

Yes, he lives quite close to me.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

A trade deal takes very little time to negotiate if it's only for a limited number of items and it is mutually beneficial. If we say to Israel, "Sign this agreement and the tariffs on your citrus fruit will be reduced to zero," how long will they need to pick up a pen?

Everybody will pick up a pen for zero tariffs. But trade deals aren't for one product. There's just the teensy possibility that you might want to sell Israel something. That's when the fun starts.

ThePanjandrum

Jim2007 wrote: »

Do you realize that the Canada-EU agreement requires EU agreement for Canada to give as good a deal to the UK?

Do you understand that deals with both the US and Canada are not regional deals as set out under WTO rules and must meet the full approval process.

The only ‘easy ones’ as you call them are WTO regional deals as they have very little third party requirements. And in the case of the UK that would be Europe and that is not going so well. In fact the only regional deal they have on the cards right now is Switzerland.

Do you realise that the Canada deal has not been ratified yet?

ThePanjandrum

Scoondal wrote: »

Well yes, they could opt out of WTO rules if they set EU tariffs at zero. What then of their trade with the rest of the world ? Non WTO rules. They are either in WTO or one of the very few countries who are outside even WTO.

A trade deal takes very little time to negotiate if it's only for a limited number of items and it is mutually beneficial. If we say to Israel, "Sign this agreement and the tariffs on your citrus fruit will be reduced to zero," how long will they need to pick up a pen?

Tell me how

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Let's not be ridiculous, have you never heard the phrase "stop the clock" when the EU wants to conclude a deal after the deadline.

Nevertheless, I just want the UK to leave without May's deal.

Why?

ThePanjandrum

10000maniacs wrote: »

Only after they implement trade deals with other third countries.
On March 29th 11:00 they will have no trade deals with anyone if they crash out.
This means they could unilaterally set their own import tariffs at 0% as Boris Johnson suggested last year. But this would be idiotic, as it would undercut UK production of similar goods making them uncompetitive creating more Brexit devastation. Also it would weaken the UK's hand when negotiating tariffs with third WTO countries.

You forget that we have quotas on our WTO schedules to help protect our own farming industry and quotas can also be written into trade deals. Many of the imported foodstuffs aren't grown in the UK anyway so reducing tariffs on oranges and bananas, for example, will not affect our own farms

Headshot

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's going ahead according to her today.

That’s what she said the first time too.....,

[Deleted User]

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Let's not be ridiculous, have you never heard the phrase "stop the clock" when the EU wants to conclude a deal after the deadline.

Nevertheless, I just want the UK to leave without May's deal.

Very rarely are these last minute negotiations bound by such a fixed deadline requiring national parliamentary approvals or whatever.

Usually if something isn't agreed at one summit it just drags on until the next.

FrancieBrady

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The final date for the vote on May's deal is the day before leaving.
Don't be surprised if she delays the vote again.

It's going ahead according to her today.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Let's not be ridiculous, have you never heard the phrase "stop the clock" when the EU wants to conclude a deal after the deadline.

Well I haven't. Please provide an example.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

belgium hasn't got a government at the moment, has it? How could it agree?

Well that's that option off the table then.

I would assume that they have a government standing in until a new one is formed.

ThePanjandrum

Scoondal wrote: »

European culture does not understand "kicking the can down the road" for a late night, last minute deal. The EU has finished negotiations and has arrived at a Brexit deal with the UK government.
It is of no concern to the EU that UK politics is chaotic. The deal is already done.

Let's not be ridiculous, have you never heard the phrase "stop the clock" when the EU wants to conclude a deal after the deadline.

Nevertheless, I just want the UK to leave without May's deal.

ThePanjandrum

Scoondal wrote: »

The Brexit deal has been agreed between EU and UK. The UK parliament was due to vote on this in December. Mrs May decided to postpone the vote until January. A full month of no progress. 21 January is time up for approval by UK parliament. If it doesn't get approval by UK by this date then the withdrawal deal cannot be implemented by EU.
The UK parliament WILL NOT vote for this deal.
This is where we are with "Brexit".
So, we have either a "No Deal" brexit with WTO tariffs and rules for UK or we have a delay to the EU Article 50 process which can only happen if there is general election in UK.
Is my understanding of these facts correct ?

The final date for the vote on May's deal is the day before leaving.
Don't be surprised if she delays the vote again.

Leroy42

They dont propose anything. It is tge defining nature of the entire shambles. Everyone just says no to everything and that there must be something better.

But if asked, which they rarely are, simply espouse hope and belief and sticking to the will of the people.

An Ciarraioch

209 MPs declare opposition to No Deal, but the key question is what alternative to May's deal would they propose?

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1082046934163038210

ThePanjandrum

Akrasia wrote: »

An extension needs unanimous agreement from the EU 27. If the UK are banking on this, they'll have a lot of convincing to do and a lot of bad will.

belgium hasn't got a government at the moment, has it? How could it agree?

Hermy

Why would we rename St. Patrick's Day? And what would we call it instead?

And what has an Irish cultural festival got to do with the removal of religious ethos from the public health service, something I only commented on because of a news story mentioned by RobMc59, all of which has nothing to do with Brexit as far as I can tell.

And as to Blueshirts and people burning effigies I'm beginning to wonder did I click on the wrong thread altogether.

An Claidheamh

Hermy wrote: »

Sounds like a brilliant idea - it's past time that we removed the religious ethos from health and education - but how does that relate to Brexit?

Moving on doesn't mean changing the name of something, are we going to rename St Patrick's Day?

Yet, the Blueshirts would be up in arms if one wanted the "royal" removed from institutions in Ireland or when a man in Cork proposed renaming streets that had a former British Queen in the title.

Whatever the case, the British folks behind "Irexit" no doubt burn effigies of Catholics when they're not pretending to defend Irish culture.

aaaaaaaahhhhhh

Just FYI for people, theres a drama on Channel4 tomorrow night at 9pm called Brexit: The Uncivil War staring Benedict Cumberbatch. looks like it could be interesting.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jan/06/brexit-uncivil-war-reviews-andrew-rawnsley-gina-miller-gloria-de-piero-shahmir-sanni

branie2

I agree that it's not relevant to the thread.

Hermy

branie2 wrote: »

Try telling that to the people of Drogheda who who want the name to stay

Yeah, I'd imagine I'd have a captive audience all right.

But seriously, I don't get how this story relates to the thread.

Maybe it's something obvious but I'm not seeing it!

judeboy101 wrote: »

We just had 3 public hols/bank hols due to religion and st paddy's day round the corner. I'll take a little bit of religion if it gets me a few days off work.

You can keep your religion all you want but it won't show up in a blood test.

judeboy101

Hermy wrote: »

Sounds like a brilliant idea - it's past time that we removed the religious ethos from health and education - but how does that relate to Brexit?

We just had 3 public hols/bank hols due to religion and st paddy's day round the corner. I'll take a little bit of religion if it gets me a few days off work.

branie2

Hermy wrote: »

Sounds like a brilliant idea - it's past time that we removed the religious ethos from health and education - but how does that relate to Brexit?

Try telling that to the people of Drogheda who who want the name to stay

Hermy

RobMc59 wrote: »

...change the local hospital name from 'our Lady of lourdes'...

Sounds like a brilliant idea - it's past time that we removed the religious ethos from health and education - but how does that relate to Brexit?

cml387

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

You've never met Ken Clarke then?

Er, no. Have you?