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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

How will brexit affect ordering from amazon?

You will pay customs duties on anything you buy. And VAT on top of that.

RobMc59

listermint wrote: »

Way off topic but that's exactly what they are doing .

But it seems yourself and and Joey feel it easier to belief someone on Facebook who told your family members that a few new locals moved in and took offense and the our lady in the name. ... Let me guess they weren't not Irish origin these new locals...

Etc etc etc.

Irexit.

Same same but different ay?

Bonus points for guessing what sort of so crap is the origin for brexit.

Il give you a hint. Irrational lies.

To be fair,it is in the newspapers-Independent,mirror etc and there have been protests in Drogheda.

Hurrache

RobMc59 wrote: »

To be fair,it is in the newspapers-Independent,mirror etc and there have been protests in Drogheda.

It's coming up on the 9 O'clock news with interviews (the demographic of the protestors say it all) so maybe they'll explain the reasons. The Indo and the Mirror would be happy to run with misinformation so as to generate controversy.

Strazdas

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

How will brexit affect ordering from amazon?

It could definitely impact on amazon uk and ebay uk. I believe if there is No Deal, post between Ireland and the UK can be opened and will be liable to extra charges (tariffs).

Jim2007

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

How will brexit affect ordering from amazon?

The same as ordering from say the US at the moment if it is a no deal situation, provided that Amazon decides to continue accepting your orders.

Here in Switzerland up to the first of January it was no problem at all ordering stuff of Amazon. But since the first of the month, Swiss VAT laws have been fully aligned with the EU and as a result they no longer are willing to ship a lot of stuff from out side the EU to Switzerland. Instead they redirect to one of their sites in Europe.

You will have to wait and see how Amazon decides to deal with it.

10000maniacs

Jim2007 wrote: »

Do you realize that the Canada-EU agreement requires EU agreement for Canada to give as good a deal to the UK?

Do you understand that deals with both the US and Canada are not regional deals as set out under WTO rules and must meet the full approval process.

The only ‘easy ones’ as you call them are WTO regional deals as they have very little third party requirements. And in the case of the UK that would be Europe and that is not going so well. In fact the only regional deal they have on the cards right now is Switzerland.

Yes I do and yes I do. When I said "easy" I was being relative. Canada is low hanging fruit, because regulation is very close to the UK. It will still take years.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

It could definitely impact on amazon uk and ebay uk. I believe if there is No Deal, post between Ireland and the UK can be opened and will be liable to extra charges (tariffs).

It’s like a step back to the 80s- and I can see our Revenue just loving it. Really going to have more direct trade with the continent rather than attached to the Uk as we so often are for trade

MrMusician18

Amazon and the like will just dispatch products destined for Ireland from continental warehouses. The only change we might see is increased delivery times.

It would be the effective end of using eBay UK in Ireland though.

cml387

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

You've never met Ken Clarke then?

Er, no. Have you?

Hermy

RobMc59 wrote: »

...change the local hospital name from 'our Lady of lourdes'...

Sounds like a brilliant idea - it's past time that we removed the religious ethos from health and education - but how does that relate to Brexit?

branie2

Hermy wrote: »

Sounds like a brilliant idea - it's past time that we removed the religious ethos from health and education - but how does that relate to Brexit?

Try telling that to the people of Drogheda who who want the name to stay

judeboy101

Hermy wrote: »

Sounds like a brilliant idea - it's past time that we removed the religious ethos from health and education - but how does that relate to Brexit?

We just had 3 public hols/bank hols due to religion and st paddy's day round the corner. I'll take a little bit of religion if it gets me a few days off work.

Hermy

branie2 wrote: »

Try telling that to the people of Drogheda who who want the name to stay

Yeah, I'd imagine I'd have a captive audience all right.

But seriously, I don't get how this story relates to the thread.

Maybe it's something obvious but I'm not seeing it!

judeboy101 wrote: »

We just had 3 public hols/bank hols due to religion and st paddy's day round the corner. I'll take a little bit of religion if it gets me a few days off work.

You can keep your religion all you want but it won't show up in a blood test.

branie2

I agree that it's not relevant to the thread.

aaaaaaaahhhhhh

Just FYI for people, theres a drama on Channel4 tomorrow night at 9pm called Brexit: The Uncivil War staring Benedict Cumberbatch. looks like it could be interesting.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jan/06/brexit-uncivil-war-reviews-andrew-rawnsley-gina-miller-gloria-de-piero-shahmir-sanni

An Claidheamh

Hermy wrote: »

Sounds like a brilliant idea - it's past time that we removed the religious ethos from health and education - but how does that relate to Brexit?

Moving on doesn't mean changing the name of something, are we going to rename St Patrick's Day?

Yet, the Blueshirts would be up in arms if one wanted the "royal" removed from institutions in Ireland or when a man in Cork proposed renaming streets that had a former British Queen in the title.

Whatever the case, the British folks behind "Irexit" no doubt burn effigies of Catholics when they're not pretending to defend Irish culture.

Hermy

Why would we rename St. Patrick's Day? And what would we call it instead?

And what has an Irish cultural festival got to do with the removal of religious ethos from the public health service, something I only commented on because of a news story mentioned by RobMc59, all of which has nothing to do with Brexit as far as I can tell.

And as to Blueshirts and people burning effigies I'm beginning to wonder did I click on the wrong thread altogether.

ThePanjandrum

Akrasia wrote: »

An extension needs unanimous agreement from the EU 27. If the UK are banking on this, they'll have a lot of convincing to do and a lot of bad will.

belgium hasn't got a government at the moment, has it? How could it agree?

An Ciarraioch

209 MPs declare opposition to No Deal, but the key question is what alternative to May's deal would they propose?

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1082046934163038210

Leroy42

They dont propose anything. It is tge defining nature of the entire shambles. Everyone just says no to everything and that there must be something better.

But if asked, which they rarely are, simply espouse hope and belief and sticking to the will of the people.

ThePanjandrum

Scoondal wrote: »

The Brexit deal has been agreed between EU and UK. The UK parliament was due to vote on this in December. Mrs May decided to postpone the vote until January. A full month of no progress. 21 January is time up for approval by UK parliament. If it doesn't get approval by UK by this date then the withdrawal deal cannot be implemented by EU.
The UK parliament WILL NOT vote for this deal.
This is where we are with "Brexit".
So, we have either a "No Deal" brexit with WTO tariffs and rules for UK or we have a delay to the EU Article 50 process which can only happen if there is general election in UK.
Is my understanding of these facts correct ?

The final date for the vote on May's deal is the day before leaving.
Don't be surprised if she delays the vote again.

ThePanjandrum

Scoondal wrote: »

European culture does not understand "kicking the can down the road" for a late night, last minute deal. The EU has finished negotiations and has arrived at a Brexit deal with the UK government.
It is of no concern to the EU that UK politics is chaotic. The deal is already done.

Let's not be ridiculous, have you never heard the phrase "stop the clock" when the EU wants to conclude a deal after the deadline.

Nevertheless, I just want the UK to leave without May's deal.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

belgium hasn't got a government at the moment, has it? How could it agree?

Well that's that option off the table then.

I would assume that they have a government standing in until a new one is formed.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Let's not be ridiculous, have you never heard the phrase "stop the clock" when the EU wants to conclude a deal after the deadline.

Well I haven't. Please provide an example.

FrancieBrady

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The final date for the vote on May's deal is the day before leaving.
Don't be surprised if she delays the vote again.

It's going ahead according to her today.

[Deleted User]

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Let's not be ridiculous, have you never heard the phrase "stop the clock" when the EU wants to conclude a deal after the deadline.

Nevertheless, I just want the UK to leave without May's deal.

Very rarely are these last minute negotiations bound by such a fixed deadline requiring national parliamentary approvals or whatever.

Usually if something isn't agreed at one summit it just drags on until the next.

Headshot

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's going ahead according to her today.

That’s what she said the first time too.....,

ThePanjandrum

10000maniacs wrote: »

Only after they implement trade deals with other third countries.
On March 29th 11:00 they will have no trade deals with anyone if they crash out.
This means they could unilaterally set their own import tariffs at 0% as Boris Johnson suggested last year. But this would be idiotic, as it would undercut UK production of similar goods making them uncompetitive creating more Brexit devastation. Also it would weaken the UK's hand when negotiating tariffs with third WTO countries.

You forget that we have quotas on our WTO schedules to help protect our own farming industry and quotas can also be written into trade deals. Many of the imported foodstuffs aren't grown in the UK anyway so reducing tariffs on oranges and bananas, for example, will not affect our own farms

Tell me how

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Let's not be ridiculous, have you never heard the phrase "stop the clock" when the EU wants to conclude a deal after the deadline.

Nevertheless, I just want the UK to leave without May's deal.

Why?

ThePanjandrum

Scoondal wrote: »

Well yes, they could opt out of WTO rules if they set EU tariffs at zero. What then of their trade with the rest of the world ? Non WTO rules. They are either in WTO or one of the very few countries who are outside even WTO.

A trade deal takes very little time to negotiate if it's only for a limited number of items and it is mutually beneficial. If we say to Israel, "Sign this agreement and the tariffs on your citrus fruit will be reduced to zero," how long will they need to pick up a pen?