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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Folkstonian

listermint wrote: »

Ah you must mean like the multiple opt outs the UK obtained over the years....

Well, not quite. Opt outs are negotiated and formalised in legal treaties. They are very different to what the French government are doing.

I sense the obvious disdain you have for the concept of opt outs - but the primary responsibility of national governments is still, even as members of the EU, to do what they see is in their citizens’ best interests.

If that means deciding not to participate in certain EU policy areas, so what? Compromise and cooperation are at the heart of what the EU is, and it works best when that compromise goes both ways.

Until a couple of years ago, with opt outs from the Schengen Area and the Euro, I thought british politicians had been doing a good on that front!

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

So why wouldn't Ireland consider extending A50 if it actually helped them deal with the consequences of a no deal Brexit?

It would be seen as a hostile act by the UK in bad faith, a V sign to Europe. They would still have the option of calling a second referendum or withdrawing A50 or calling a general election but instead they would be saying 'Hi EU & Ireland, can you please help us smash up the UK-EU relationship forever?'

Scoondal

Igotadose wrote: »

Simpler than that:
UK can vote to approve the deal negotiated with the EU by TM and her government. Or, the UK can crash out with no deal and WTO processes lurched into place. There's nothing 'automatic' about an Art. 50 extension - UK would have to ask and the EU approve it. Nothing's been asked for. Some tea-leave readers think that if the UK goes instead for a new election, the EU might grant an extension but all this is speculative, not definitive. EU could just as soon say, "Sorry, it's March 29th, you're done, best of luck and tally ho."

It *may* be that, once May's deal is approved, an extension might be granted by the EU to implement that deal - but that's not so clear to me that they're tied, I believe the plan is that once May's deal is approved, it takes effect in December 2019.

But Mrs May's/UK government's deal will never be approved by the UK parliament.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

So why wouldn't Ireland consider extending A50 if it actually helped them deal with the consequences of a no deal Brexit?

At some point the uncertainty needs to end. An extension will not really help that because it will just pile more uncertainty on top. There might be some benefit at the margins, but three months or whatever extension is sought will only add the possibility of another extension being looked for on another pretext. To be fair, the government will be better placed to assess the benefits and so far they've been pretty much on top of the situation. So if they believe it's of use to us, I'd be happy enough.

Scoondal

European culture does not understand "kicking the can down the road" for a late night, last minute deal. The EU has finished negotiations and has arrived at a Brexit deal with the UK government.
It is of no concern to the EU that UK politics is chaotic. The deal is already done.

Igotadose

Scoondal wrote: »

The Brexit deal has been agreed between EU and UK. The UK parliament was due to vote on this in December. Mrs May decided to postpone the vote until January. A full month of no progress. 21 January is time up for approval by UK parliament. If it doesn't get approval by UK by this date then the withdrawal deal cannot be implemented by EU.
The UK parliament WILL NOT vote for this deal.
This is where we are with "Brexit".
So, we have either a "No Deal" brexit with WTO tariffs and rules for UK or we have a delay to the EU Article 50 process which can only happen if there is general election in UK.
Is my understanding of these facts correct ?

Simpler than that:
UK can vote to approve the deal negotiated with the EU by TM and her government. Or, the UK can crash out with no deal and WTO processes lurched into place. There's nothing 'automatic' about an Art. 50 extension - UK would have to ask and the EU approve it. Nothing's been asked for. Some tea-leave readers think that if the UK goes instead for a new election, the EU might grant an extension but all this is speculative, not definitive. EU could just as soon say, "Sorry, it's March 29th, you're done, best of luck and tally ho."

It *may* be that, once May's deal is approved, an extension might be granted by the EU to implement that deal - but that's not so clear to me that they're tied, I believe the plan is that once May's deal is approved, it takes effect in December 2019.

Scoondal

The Brexit deal has been agreed between EU and UK. The UK parliament was due to vote on this in December. Mrs May decided to postpone the vote until January. A full month of no progress. 21 January is time up for approval by UK parliament. If it doesn't get approval by UK by this date then the withdrawal deal cannot be implemented by EU.
The UK parliament WILL NOT vote for this deal.
This is where we are with "Brexit".
So, we have either a "No Deal" brexit with WTO tariffs and rules for UK or we have a delay to the EU Article 50 process which can only happen if there is general election in UK.
Is my understanding of these facts correct ?

bilston

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Can you find me anyone (never mind "many") who thinks Ireland won't be negatively affected by a no deal brexit?

So why wouldn't Ireland consider extending A50 if it actually helped them deal with the consequences of a no deal Brexit?

trellheim

He says, as France ploughs ahead with plans to break EU rules on budgetary deficits. Brussels has sent a strongly worded letter, but seems unwilling to do much more.

Everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others.
Folkstonian is online now Report Post

And non-sequiturs like that help facilitate the discussion in what way ? Olly Robbins sat down with TM's red lines , with Sabine Weyand and Michel Barnier for an age in the various tunnels and what emerged is the deal that the UK now do not like.

If it wasnt the backstop it'd be something else for the Tories to pick a fight with itself over. Only the hardest of Brexits will satisfy ERG & co , and right at this moment they are on course for that so why would they change ?

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

He says, as France ploughs ahead with plans to break EU rules on budgetary deficits. Brussels has sent a strongly worded letter, but seems unwilling to do much more.

Everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others.

Ah you must mean like the multiple opt outs the UK obtained over the years....

Folkstonian

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't think anyone would argue with what you say in your first paragraph. All of those things and more. At the same time though, you should also accept that these things were in Britain's long term interest too.

But we're watching our friends slow march themselves into disaster. And for absolutely nothing. It's bizarre.

I don’t disagree. I’ve long been of the opinion that Britain’s economy, security and influence are all enhanced inside the EU

Folkstonian

CelticRambler wrote: »

No pecking order in the EU - we're all equals!

[Or, to quote J-C Junker, "we are all Irish" - something that the hard Brexiteers are having considerably difficulty understanding. ]

He says, as France ploughs ahead with plans to break EU rules on it’s budgetary deficit. Brussels has sent a strongly worded letter, but seems unwilling to do much more.

Everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

My wife's family in Drogheda have said the whole town is up in arms because someone has come up with the idea to change the local hospital name from 'our Lady of lourdes'because some newer residents find it offensive. If that's true it's controversial imo.

That's utter waffle.

Its actually a lie. And probably spread through Facebook idiots.

The HSE are changing the structure of hospitals nationally the name change was part of that plan and it's not decided.

So this crap about some new locals having a problem with it sounds like something irexit crowd would get a hard on to propagate

I expect you'll go and correct your wife's family on that ...

RobMc59

My wife's family in Drogheda have said the whole town is up in arms because someone has come up with the idea to change the local hospital name from 'our Lady of lourdes'because some newer residents find it offensive. If that's true it's controversial imo.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

No pecking order in the EU - we're all equals!

[Or, to quote J-C Junker, "we are all Irish" - something that the hard Brexiteers are having considerably difficulty understanding. ]

You are correct-I'm just distraught because I don't want the UK to leave

CrabRevolution

bilston wrote: »

Well despite what many wish to think the Republic of Ireland will be affected negatively by a no deal Brexit...maybe the Irish govt would like a bit more time to prepare.

Can you find me anyone (never mind "many") who thinks Ireland won't be negatively affected by a no deal brexit?

Capt'n Midnight

Why should we facilitate UK ?

The best option for us is if they Remain.

We don't want to make Hard Brexit look like anything other than the unmitigated disaster it will be. We just need to look at the best long term option rather than sacrificing ourselves on their alter for some unknown short term gain.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

And what at the present time is the UK position in the world-i was under the impression it was just above France in the pecking order..

No pecking order in the EU - we're all equals!

[Or, to quote J-C Junker, "we are all Irish" - something that the hard Brexiteers are having considerably difficulty understanding.

]

bilston

FrancieBrady wrote: »

To what end? Just to kick the ball down the road until the UK gathers it's nerve to leave with no deal?

Can't see why Ireland would go against the wishes of it's partners who just want this done now, I'd imagine.

Well despite what many wish to think the Republic of Ireland will be affected negatively by a no deal Brexit...maybe the Irish govt would like a bit more time to prepare.

Water John

Prawn, we'll wait and see how it plays out. I'm just putting there what I think is a likely scenario.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

No, but EU hauliers could choose not to operate in a country that was so disorganised - there's plenty of work to be had driving freight across the other 27 countries (and beyond) without having your fleet sitting idle in HardBrexitland.

And besides, as was discussed earlier, for the same reason it would be in the UK's interest to facilitate the rapid departure of empty continental trucks so that they could go and fetch some more food and medicines for the masses.

The EU is "as ready as it will ever be" for a no-deal Brexit; and we've all had enough of the nonsensical behaviour in Westminster. "Please, Sir, can I've some more [time]..." is not a good enough reason to grant an extension for no reason other than to faff about for a while longer.

If they really need more time (and yes, they really need more time) they can cancel Brexit completely and spend a decade understanding their place in the world.

And what at the present time is the UK position in the world-i was under the impression it was just above France in the pecking order..

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

So 9 days to the vote she loses. Then Jeremy has his no confidence pitch he loses. We're at the 12th Jan
Does a 2nd Ref get through the HoC between the 12 and 21st?
TM will be backed by Tories in the no confidence vote but could then be gone within a week.

No chance. The clock ran out on a second referendum at least six months ago. They might get an A50 extension if it's for that purpose, but I suspect that the terms of the second referendum would have to be suitably set to get that approval. No pigs in a poke.

Water John

So 9 days to the vote she loses. Then Jeremy has his no confidence pitch he loses. We're at the 12th Jan
Does a 2nd Ref get through the HoC between the 12 and 21st?
TM will be backed by Tories in the no confidence vote but could then be gone within a week.

prawnsambo

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that most Tories think the EU will fold at the lat minute and give them everything they want. It wont.

Like brexit, they all have different views on what they want. The remainer types think that if it falls, A50 will be withdrawn or the option will be there. The hardline brexiters hope it fails and they get their hard brexit. Those in the middle are watching the others to see which way to jump in order to maximise the benefit to themselves.

Sam Russell

road_high wrote: »

Did I read 60% of Tory MPs polled are still opposed to Mays deal? In such circumstances it’ll be next to impossible to get it over the line. Psychologically they seem to be heading that way, as if No Deal is some kind of option without consequences and they’ll all just get their way in the end

I think that most Tories think the EU will fold at the lat minute and give them everything they want. It wont.

road_high

Did I read 60% of Tory MPs polled are still opposed to Mays deal? In such circumstances it’ll be next to impossible to get it over the line. Psychologically they seem to be heading that way, as if No Deal is some kind of option without consequences and they’ll all just get their way in the end

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

Yes, thats one view, and another might be the likely net gain from granting such an extension to both sides, not just the UK. Those trucks stuck on the M20 would not all be UK trucks.

No, but EU hauliers could choose not to operate in a country that was so disorganised - there's plenty of work to be had driving freight across the other 27 countries (and beyond) without having your fleet sitting idle in HardBrexitland.

And besides, as was discussed earlier, for the same reason it would be in the UK's interest to facilitate the rapid departure of empty continental trucks so that they could go and fetch some more food and medicines for the masses.

The EU is "as ready as it will ever be" for a no-deal Brexit; and we've all had enough of the nonsensical behaviour in Westminster. "Please, Sir, can I've some more [time]..." is not a good enough reason to grant an extension for no reason other than to faff about for a while longer.

If they really need more time (and yes, they really need more time) they can cancel Brexit completely and spend a decade understanding their place in the world.

1st dalkey dalkey

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe the case but it's unlikely they bought a controlling share thinking UK airports will be paralysed after 29th March-don't forget,if the armageddon scenerio comes to pass who knows what may happen-the UK may freeze all EU assets in a bizarre tit for tat squabble.

The Armageddon will not effect airports as much as airlines.
The UK will still have millions of people flying somewhere and airports will still serve that large market.
The company involved is Vinci and they are already involved in many non EU countries.
"Vinci, corporately styled VINCI, is a French concessions and construction company founded in 1899 as Société Générale d'Enterprises. It employs over 194,000 people, operates in more than 100 countries and is the largest construction company in the world by revenue."

trellheim

ACD : I agree Brexit should be cancelled 100% - just cant see it happening in the current climate

Where they park their trucks is not the EU's problem. Neither is it the EU's problem if they don't have enough border control officers, or agreements for the continuing supply of medicines and other imports. They've had two years to organise their no-deal preparations. The EU has found the time and funding to put arrangements in place, so why didn't the Brits?

"Not my problem, mate"

Yes, thats one view, and another might be the likely net gain from granting such an extension to both sides, not just the UK. Those trucks stuck on the M20 would not all be UK trucks.

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Where they park their trucks is not the EU's problem. Neither is it the EU's problem if they don't have enough border control officers, or agreements for the continuing supply of medicines and other imports. They've had two years to organise their no-deal preparations. The EU has found the time and funding to put arrangements in place, so why didn't the Brits?

"Not my problem, mate"