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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

I personally think they would grant it as long as it was before MEP elections at the end of may. It does not suit Ireland in the slightest for the UK to crash out with no deal ( by which I mean any time at all to extend our own prep and supply lines ) . Yes of course they would be angry but thats not realpolitik - some concession would be offered and accepted.

An extension to do what? There is not the least indication that the UK can or will get its act together in the foreseeable future, regardless of whether it's given an extension of three months or three years.

If Theresa May decides that the UK isn't adequately prepared for Brexit, all she has to do is ask for her A50-triggering letter to be returned and let her fellow Brits fight amongst themselves for another decade or so while the rest of us get on with life.

Alternatively, she can allow the process to continue until Brexit-day, then hand the reins over someone else and let her fellow Brits fight amongst themselves for another decade or so while the rest of us get on with life.

According to the Bloomberg article, TM's justification for not holding a second referendum is that "it would divide the country". If she truly believes that that is a risk for the future, she is more detached from the present than I thought.

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

Surely if it looked like a no deal was going to happen Ireland would be open to an extension of A50 for their own benefit as much as anything?

I'm not sure the rest of the EU would though.

I suspect the mood would be one of anger. The idea of an A50 extension was always that it would allow the British breathing space to solve the Brexit crisis, not to allow them take a sledgehammer to the UK-EU relationship and smash it to pieces. It is supposed to be a goodwill gesture not carte blanche for the Brexiteers to go on the rampage with their destructive No Deal.

trellheim

Have you forgotten what you posted? Specifically that they would request an extension in order to smooth a no deal?

No , I didn't forget at all ? To reiterate - they - the UK would request an extension from the EU to smooth a no-deal - correct. Not sure what you arent clear about in what I wrote.

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Arguments like 2nd Ref, cancel A50 - never happen under May - just simply will not - that's not who she is ( or Corbyn either ) -

Tell me how

trellheim wrote: »

No , I didn't forget at all ? To reiterate - they - the UK would request an extension from the EU to smooth a no-deal - correct. Not sure what you arent clear about in what I wrote.

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Arguments like 2nd Ref, cancel A50 - never happen under May - just simply will not - that's not who she is ( or Corbyn either ) -

Have the EU not said that there will not be an extension to A50 already?

Akrasia

trellheim wrote: »

No , I didn't forget at all ? To reiterate - they - the UK would request an extension from the EU to smooth a no-deal - correct. Not sure what you arent clear about in what I wrote.

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Arguments like 2nd Ref, cancel A50 - never happen under May - just simply will not - that's not who she is ( or Corbyn either ) -

An extension needs unanimous agreement from the EU 27. If the UK are banking on this, they'll have a lot of convincing to do and a lot of bad will.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

No , I didn't forget at all ? To reiterate - they - the UK would request an extension from the EU to smooth a no-deal - correct. Not sure what you arent clear about in what I wrote.

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Arguments like 2nd Ref, cancel A50 - never happen under May - just simply will not - that's not who she is ( or Corbyn either ) -

I was just making sure. Because my original point still stands in that case. There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that the EU27 would agree to an extension that would be requested for that purpose.

Strazdas

Tell me how wrote: »

Have the EU not said that there will not be an extension to A50 already?

No, not at all and it's meant to be a goodwill gesture, not to facilitate the Brexiteers taking a wrecking ball to everything (ie. a destructive No Deal). How would it be the EU's job to help Britain out in this? This would be a hostile act by Brexit UK.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

No, not at all and it's meant to be a goodwill gesture, not to facilitate the Brexiteers taking a wrecking ball to everything (ie. a destructive No Deal). How would it be the EU's job to help Britain out in this? This would be a hostile act by Brexit UK.

European history shows quite clearly that sufficient damage to a major power's economy can foment radicalism of the worst kind. We're already seeing fringe movements across Europe get into power from the far right in Poland and Hungary and the far left in Italy in an awkward coalition between the two.

Obviously, the EU isn't going to immolate itself for the UK's sake or that of the Brexiteers. However, it has shown on multiple occasions that it will work with the UK if it means cancelling Brexit or giving it access to the Single Market so long as the British accept the four freedoms of said market. I don't think the UK is going to turn into an economic cesspit but the best way to prevent further economic and political damage is to cancel this fell endeavour of the far right, oligarchs, press barons and foreign money men and the EU is ready to help with this.

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Where they park their trucks is not the EU's problem. Neither is it the EU's problem if they don't have enough border control officers, or agreements for the continuing supply of medicines and other imports. They've had two years to organise their no-deal preparations. The EU has found the time and funding to put arrangements in place, so why didn't the Brits?

"Not my problem, mate"

trellheim

ACD : I agree Brexit should be cancelled 100% - just cant see it happening in the current climate

Where they park their trucks is not the EU's problem. Neither is it the EU's problem if they don't have enough border control officers, or agreements for the continuing supply of medicines and other imports. They've had two years to organise their no-deal preparations. The EU has found the time and funding to put arrangements in place, so why didn't the Brits?

"Not my problem, mate"

Yes, thats one view, and another might be the likely net gain from granting such an extension to both sides, not just the UK. Those trucks stuck on the M20 would not all be UK trucks.

1st dalkey dalkey

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe the case but it's unlikely they bought a controlling share thinking UK airports will be paralysed after 29th March-don't forget,if the armageddon scenerio comes to pass who knows what may happen-the UK may freeze all EU assets in a bizarre tit for tat squabble.

The Armageddon will not effect airports as much as airlines.
The UK will still have millions of people flying somewhere and airports will still serve that large market.
The company involved is Vinci and they are already involved in many non EU countries.
"Vinci, corporately styled VINCI, is a French concessions and construction company founded in 1899 as Société Générale d'Enterprises. It employs over 194,000 people, operates in more than 100 countries and is the largest construction company in the world by revenue."

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

Yes, thats one view, and another might be the likely net gain from granting such an extension to both sides, not just the UK. Those trucks stuck on the M20 would not all be UK trucks.

No, but EU hauliers could choose not to operate in a country that was so disorganised - there's plenty of work to be had driving freight across the other 27 countries (and beyond) without having your fleet sitting idle in HardBrexitland.

And besides, as was discussed earlier, for the same reason it would be in the UK's interest to facilitate the rapid departure of empty continental trucks so that they could go and fetch some more food and medicines for the masses.

The EU is "as ready as it will ever be" for a no-deal Brexit; and we've all had enough of the nonsensical behaviour in Westminster. "Please, Sir, can I've some more [time]..." is not a good enough reason to grant an extension for no reason other than to faff about for a while longer.

If they really need more time (and yes, they really need more time) they can cancel Brexit completely and spend a decade understanding their place in the world.

road_high

Did I read 60% of Tory MPs polled are still opposed to Mays deal? In such circumstances it’ll be next to impossible to get it over the line. Psychologically they seem to be heading that way, as if No Deal is some kind of option without consequences and they’ll all just get their way in the end

Sam Russell

road_high wrote: »

Did I read 60% of Tory MPs polled are still opposed to Mays deal? In such circumstances it’ll be next to impossible to get it over the line. Psychologically they seem to be heading that way, as if No Deal is some kind of option without consequences and they’ll all just get their way in the end

I think that most Tories think the EU will fold at the lat minute and give them everything they want. It wont.

prawnsambo

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that most Tories think the EU will fold at the lat minute and give them everything they want. It wont.

Like brexit, they all have different views on what they want. The remainer types think that if it falls, A50 will be withdrawn or the option will be there. The hardline brexiters hope it fails and they get their hard brexit. Those in the middle are watching the others to see which way to jump in order to maximise the benefit to themselves.

Water John

So 9 days to the vote she loses. Then Jeremy has his no confidence pitch he loses. We're at the 12th Jan
Does a 2nd Ref get through the HoC between the 12 and 21st?
TM will be backed by Tories in the no confidence vote but could then be gone within a week.

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

So 9 days to the vote she loses. Then Jeremy has his no confidence pitch he loses. We're at the 12th Jan
Does a 2nd Ref get through the HoC between the 12 and 21st?
TM will be backed by Tories in the no confidence vote but could then be gone within a week.

No chance. The clock ran out on a second referendum at least six months ago. They might get an A50 extension if it's for that purpose, but I suspect that the terms of the second referendum would have to be suitably set to get that approval. No pigs in a poke.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

No, but EU hauliers could choose not to operate in a country that was so disorganised - there's plenty of work to be had driving freight across the other 27 countries (and beyond) without having your fleet sitting idle in HardBrexitland.

And besides, as was discussed earlier, for the same reason it would be in the UK's interest to facilitate the rapid departure of empty continental trucks so that they could go and fetch some more food and medicines for the masses.

The EU is "as ready as it will ever be" for a no-deal Brexit; and we've all had enough of the nonsensical behaviour in Westminster. "Please, Sir, can I've some more [time]..." is not a good enough reason to grant an extension for no reason other than to faff about for a while longer.

If they really need more time (and yes, they really need more time) they can cancel Brexit completely and spend a decade understanding their place in the world.

And what at the present time is the UK position in the world-i was under the impression it was just above France in the pecking order..

Water John

Prawn, we'll wait and see how it plays out. I'm just putting there what I think is a likely scenario.

bilston

FrancieBrady wrote: »

To what end? Just to kick the ball down the road until the UK gathers it's nerve to leave with no deal?

Can't see why Ireland would go against the wishes of it's partners who just want this done now, I'd imagine.

Well despite what many wish to think the Republic of Ireland will be affected negatively by a no deal Brexit...maybe the Irish govt would like a bit more time to prepare.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

And what at the present time is the UK position in the world-i was under the impression it was just above France in the pecking order..

No pecking order in the EU - we're all equals!

[Or, to quote J-C Junker, "we are all Irish" - something that the hard Brexiteers are having considerably difficulty understanding.

]

Capt'n Midnight

Why should we facilitate UK ?

The best option for us is if they Remain.

We don't want to make Hard Brexit look like anything other than the unmitigated disaster it will be. We just need to look at the best long term option rather than sacrificing ourselves on their alter for some unknown short term gain.

CrabRevolution

bilston wrote: »

Well despite what many wish to think the Republic of Ireland will be affected negatively by a no deal Brexit...maybe the Irish govt would like a bit more time to prepare.

Can you find me anyone (never mind "many") who thinks Ireland won't be negatively affected by a no deal brexit?

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

No pecking order in the EU - we're all equals!

[Or, to quote J-C Junker, "we are all Irish" - something that the hard Brexiteers are having considerably difficulty understanding. ]

You are correct-I'm just distraught because I don't want the UK to leave

RobMc59

My wife's family in Drogheda have said the whole town is up in arms because someone has come up with the idea to change the local hospital name from 'our Lady of lourdes'because some newer residents find it offensive. If that's true it's controversial imo.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

My wife's family in Drogheda have said the whole town is up in arms because someone has come up with the idea to change the local hospital name from 'our Lady of lourdes'because some newer residents find it offensive. If that's true it's controversial imo.

That's utter waffle.

Its actually a lie. And probably spread through Facebook idiots.

The HSE are changing the structure of hospitals nationally the name change was part of that plan and it's not decided.

So this crap about some new locals having a problem with it sounds like something irexit crowd would get a hard on to propagate

I expect you'll go and correct your wife's family on that ...

Folkstonian

CelticRambler wrote: »

No pecking order in the EU - we're all equals!

[Or, to quote J-C Junker, "we are all Irish" - something that the hard Brexiteers are having considerably difficulty understanding. ]

He says, as France ploughs ahead with plans to break EU rules on it’s budgetary deficit. Brussels has sent a strongly worded letter, but seems unwilling to do much more.

Everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others.

Folkstonian

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't think anyone would argue with what you say in your first paragraph. All of those things and more. At the same time though, you should also accept that these things were in Britain's long term interest too.

But we're watching our friends slow march themselves into disaster. And for absolutely nothing. It's bizarre.

I don’t disagree. I’ve long been of the opinion that Britain’s economy, security and influence are all enhanced inside the EU

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

He says, as France ploughs ahead with plans to break EU rules on budgetary deficits. Brussels has sent a strongly worded letter, but seems unwilling to do much more.

Everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others.

Ah you must mean like the multiple opt outs the UK obtained over the years....

trellheim

He says, as France ploughs ahead with plans to break EU rules on budgetary deficits. Brussels has sent a strongly worded letter, but seems unwilling to do much more.

Everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others.
Folkstonian is online now Report Post

And non-sequiturs like that help facilitate the discussion in what way ? Olly Robbins sat down with TM's red lines , with Sabine Weyand and Michel Barnier for an age in the various tunnels and what emerged is the deal that the UK now do not like.

If it wasnt the backstop it'd be something else for the Tories to pick a fight with itself over. Only the hardest of Brexits will satisfy ERG & co , and right at this moment they are on course for that so why would they change ?