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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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rusty the athlete

road_high wrote: »

But it’ll be all worth it...Australia and the USA are queuing up to buy more Land Rovers and JCBs

And the brits are lining up for chlorinated chicken, hormone beef and genetically modified veggies. Yumee!

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest poll result:

Con 40% (-1)

Lab 34℅ (-5)

Lib Dem 10% (+3)

Green 4%

UKIP 4% (+1)

Which, according to Electoral Calculus, results in:

Con 333 (+15)

Lab 235 (-27)

SNP 41 (+6)

Lib Dem 19 (+7)

NI 18

Plaid Cymru 3 (-1)

Green 1

How much longer can the parliamentary labour party support Corbyn? Those numbers are beyond dismal.

Igotadose

So, it seems nothing's changed in the UK. RTE quoting the Daily Fail that "Officials are reportedly drawing up a possible Commons amendment to the Brexit vote which would give parliament the right to serve notice to the EU of an intention to quit the backstop after 12 months if Brussels fails to agree a trade deal with the UK that would resolve the issue."

I'm not sure how the backstop, once triggered, actually is withdrawn, but I expect that's not been decided - how would the EU verify the UK's in compliance without the backstop? I'm sure that'll be a very long drawn out process. But, trying to force a timeline on the EU for its removal based on Parliament voting to remove it? Not likely.

So, no progress in December, a vote coming up supposedly in January, and the clock continuing to tick

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0106/1020548-brexit-uk/

prawnsambo

Folkstonian wrote: »

Give it a rest with your snide little quips. Britain has pumped billions of pounds into the EU, provided millions of EU migrants with employment, been at the vanguard of European security and defence, led the way on huge European projects like the single market, stood up for smaller nations, including yours, against French and German ambitions for further integration, loads more.

I’ve made it known on here that I want Britain to stay, but if we don’t, we’ll good luck finding someone to fill the gap. There are few countries who could claim to be more worthwhile members.

I don't think anyone would argue with what you say in your first paragraph. All of those things and more. At the same time though, you should also accept that these things were in Britain's long term interest too.

But we're watching our friends slow march themselves into disaster. And for absolutely nothing. It's bizarre.

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

Give it a rest with your snide little quips. Britain has pumped billions of pounds into the EU, provided millions of EU migrants with employment, been at the vanguard of European security and defence, led the way on huge European projects like the single market, stood up for smaller nations, including yours, against French and German ambitions for further integration, loads more.

I’ve made it known on here that I want Britain to stay, but if we don’t, we’ll good luck finding someone to fill the gap. There are few countries who could claim to be more worthwhile members.

Fill what gap?

The constant agressor within the union. Forever looking to get opt outs and special treatment since joining.

There's alot to be gained from their exit as much as their inclusion.

One of the biggest problems as you have portrayed in your post perfectly is that Britain has always seen itself as superior never equal never willing to compromise.

There will be a whole lot of compromising for a post brexit Britain and no before you shout about that being anti British or an attempt at a cut down.

Its the reality. None are so blind and all that...

Water John

Yes UK have been fairly poor team players in the EU.
FB you are incorrect, it's quite clear from the poll data that on a 2nd Ref UK would be staying.

Seth Brundle

Folkstonian wrote: »

Give it a rest with your snide little quips. Britain has pumped billions of pounds into the EU, provided millions of EU migrants with employment, been at the vanguard of European security and defence, led the way on huge European projects like the single market, stood up for smaller nations, including yours, against French and German ambitions for further integration, loads more.

But all of that was done with British interests in mind. Britain isn't a charity or even a team player so my point is glaringly obvious.
However, your post also implies that Britain got nothing in return for all of their investments in the EU: do you believe that this is the case or do you agree that Britain got an almost equal amount back?

lawred2

TM on Marr now

ancapailldorcha

rusty the athlete wrote: »

..er, what about the 'Diversion' sign? A prophecy?

rusty the athlete wrote: »

And the brits are lining up for chlorinated chicken, hormone beef and genetically modified veggies. Yumee!

Mod: Please read the charter before posting again. This is a forum for serious discussion.

Seth Brundle

lawred2 wrote: »

TM on Marr now

Anything new being said?

FrancieBrady

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Anything new being said?

Not much. She won't hold up a vote. And she will seek to reassure over the backstop.

Akrasia

judeboy101 wrote: »

Amazon have stores in america with no checkout

Completely different system where a shop has a stock control system and every item is electronically tagged by shop staff who can verify the quantity, weight and description of the goods while tagging them, compared with a border where the exporters and importers have an incentive to understate the value or quantity of the goods or alter the description to avoid taxes or regulations....

murphaph

Akrasia wrote: »

Completely different system where a shop has a stock control system and every item is electronically tagged by shop staff who can verify the quantity, weight and description of the goods while tagging them, compared with a border where the exporters and importers have an incentive to understate the value or quantity of the goods or alter the description to avoid taxes or regulations....

Exactly. The comparison is laughable. In the case of the supermarket you can also bet that every aisle is closely monitored by CCTV (probably with AI to detect manipulation/removal of the RFID tags from the products before proceeding through the checkout scanner.)

And this is supposed to be a high tech low visibility border lol.

Akrasia

murphaph wrote: »

Exactly. The comparison is laughable. In the case of the supermarket you can also bet that every aisle is closely monitored by CCTV (probably with AI to detect manipulation/removal of the RFID tags from the products before proceeding through the checkout scanner.)

And this is supposed to be a high tech low visibility border lol.

Not to mention the fact that these systems regularly break down. What happens if the back end of the system goes offline for an update? Does the whole border close?

Or if parts of the system malfunction, do some roads close and reroute traffic elsewhere?

Anthracite

The Amazon comparison rather missed the point that Amazon are not trying to smuggle their own goods out of the shop, unpaid for.

A Dub in Glasgo

Labour are absolutely hopeless and I can only see no deal in 82 days time https://jonworth.eu/article-50-clock/

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1081890998094053376

johnnyskeleton

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour are absolutely hopeless and I can only see no deal in 82 days time https://jonworth.eu/article-50-clock/

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1081890998094053376

He had previously said he wanted to be in "a customs union" with the EU and when asked if that meant remain he said "no, we would be in a customs union not the customs union".

He is now saying that he wants to be in a customs union where each soverign state is part of the decision making process. Kind of like the way the EU's trade deal with Canada required the UKs signature, which it got.

Labour's mantra should be "whats in a name? Does that which we call the EU by any other name not smell as sweet?"

trellheim

Yes.

Marr this morning seemed to indicate its no deal unless TM gets enough off Merkel etc to reassure the mob . Look for signs of an A50 extension request in the near future to smooth the no deal

Capt'n Midnight

Turkey is in a customs union with the EU.

They don't have a veto or vote.

But they retain full control of Agriculture. Which means a Hard Border.
And an agri opt-out of a customs union is of no use to the UK as aren't a food exporter.

foxyladyxx

Teresa May's interview on Andrew Marr show

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b0kULuS5o8

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Yes.

Marr this morning seemed to indicate its no deal unless TM gets enough off Merkel etc to reassure the mob . Look for signs of an A50 extension request in the near future to smooth the no deal

This is pure magical thinking. It would be hard to find one EU country that would agree to extend this mess so that the UK can use the time to ameliorate the effects of not actually ratifying the deal they have, never mind 27.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is pure magical thinking. It would be hard to find one EU country that would agree to extend this mess so that the UK can use the time to ameliorate the effects of not actually ratifying the deal they have, never mind 27.

100% : I'd say most EU states, including Ireland, would be very angry if May came to them and said 'Can I have a three month A50 extension in order to prepare my country for a disastrous crashing out of the EU' (when she still has other options like a second referendum, withdrawing A50, caving in on her red lines etc).

Silent Running

foxyladyxx wrote: »

Teresa May's interview on Andrew Marr show

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b0kULuS5o8

What is the relevance of posting a youtube video from October 2016? Are you suggesting nothing has changed since then? I suppose you're right. We haven't moved forward at all.

prawnsambo

Silent Running wrote: »

What is the relevance of posting a youtube video from October 2016? Are you suggesting nothing has changed since then? I suppose you're right. We haven't moved forward at all.

I think the poster thought that was today's interview.

foxyladyxx

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think the poster thought that was today's interview.

So I did . .wrong video . .Apologies

In todays interview Teresa May warned that the UK would be in uncharted territory if her deal was not ratified

Silent Running

foxyladyxx wrote: »

So I did . .wrong video . .Apologies

In todays interview Teresa May warned that the UK would be in uncharted territory if her deal was not ratified

This interview serves a useful purpose, apart from showing how bad Marr is on the subject. It does highlight how little progress has been made in over 2 years of the Brexit process.

Stating things like "Britain would be in uncharted territory" is stating the blinding obvious. It was obvious over 2 years ago and it's still obvious now.

trellheim

Strazdas wrote: »

100% : I'd say most EU states, including Ireland, would be very angry if May came to them and said 'Can I have a three month A50 extension in order to prepare my country for a disastrous crashing out of the EU' (when she still has other options like a second referendum, withdrawing A50, caving in on her red lines etc).

I personally think they would grant it as long as it was before MEP elections at the end of may. It does not suit Ireland in the slightest for the UK to crash out with no deal ( by which I mean any time at all to extend our own prep and supply lines ) . Yes of course they would be angry but thats not realpolitik - some concession would be offered and accepted.

As for your points

1) 2nd Referendum - never happen under May
2) Withdraw A50 - ditto
3) Caving on a red line - perhaps but difficult to see which one - it wont be FOM and I doubt it will be the Single Market. Maybe extend CFP for extra 5 years.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

I personally think they would grant it as long as it was before MEP elections at the end of may. It does not suit Ireland in the slightest for the UK to crash out with no deal ( by which I mean any time at all to extend our own prep and supply lines ) . Yes of course they would be angry but thats not realpolitik - some concession would be offered and accepted.

Have you forgotten what you posted? Specifically that they would request an extension in order to smooth a no deal?

trellheim wrote: »

Yes.

Marr this morning seemed to indicate its no deal unless TM gets enough off Merkel etc to reassure the mob . Look for signs of an A50 extension request in the near future to smooth the no deal

bilston

Strazdas wrote: »

100% : I'd say most EU states, including Ireland, would be very angry if May came to them and said 'Can I have a three month A50 extension in order to prepare my country for a disastrous crashing out of the EU' (when she still has other options like a second referendum, withdrawing A50, caving in on her red lines etc).

Surely if it looked like a no deal was going to happen Ireland would be open to an extension of A50 for their own benefit as much as anything?

I'm not sure the rest of the EU would though.

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

Surely if it looked like a no deal was going to happen Ireland would be open to an extension of A50 for their own benefit as much as anything?

I'm not sure the rest of the EU would though.

To what end? Just to kick the ball down the road until the UK gathers it's nerve to leave with no deal?

Can't see why Ireland would go against the wishes of it's partners who just want this done now, I'd imagine.