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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

No, not at all and it's meant to be a goodwill gesture, not to facilitate the Brexiteers taking a wrecking ball to everything (ie. a destructive No Deal). How would it be the EU's job to help Britain out in this? This would be a hostile act by Brexit UK.

European history shows quite clearly that sufficient damage to a major power's economy can foment radicalism of the worst kind. We're already seeing fringe movements across Europe get into power from the far right in Poland and Hungary and the far left in Italy in an awkward coalition between the two.

Obviously, the EU isn't going to immolate itself for the UK's sake or that of the Brexiteers. However, it has shown on multiple occasions that it will work with the UK if it means cancelling Brexit or giving it access to the Single Market so long as the British accept the four freedoms of said market. I don't think the UK is going to turn into an economic cesspit but the best way to prevent further economic and political damage is to cancel this fell endeavour of the far right, oligarchs, press barons and foreign money men and the EU is ready to help with this.

Strazdas

Tell me how wrote: »

Have the EU not said that there will not be an extension to A50 already?

No, not at all and it's meant to be a goodwill gesture, not to facilitate the Brexiteers taking a wrecking ball to everything (ie. a destructive No Deal). How would it be the EU's job to help Britain out in this? This would be a hostile act by Brexit UK.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

No , I didn't forget at all ? To reiterate - they - the UK would request an extension from the EU to smooth a no-deal - correct. Not sure what you arent clear about in what I wrote.

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Arguments like 2nd Ref, cancel A50 - never happen under May - just simply will not - that's not who she is ( or Corbyn either ) -

I was just making sure. Because my original point still stands in that case. There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that the EU27 would agree to an extension that would be requested for that purpose.

Akrasia

trellheim wrote: »

No , I didn't forget at all ? To reiterate - they - the UK would request an extension from the EU to smooth a no-deal - correct. Not sure what you arent clear about in what I wrote.

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Arguments like 2nd Ref, cancel A50 - never happen under May - just simply will not - that's not who she is ( or Corbyn either ) -

An extension needs unanimous agreement from the EU 27. If the UK are banking on this, they'll have a lot of convincing to do and a lot of bad will.

Tell me how

trellheim wrote: »

No , I didn't forget at all ? To reiterate - they - the UK would request an extension from the EU to smooth a no-deal - correct. Not sure what you arent clear about in what I wrote.

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Arguments like 2nd Ref, cancel A50 - never happen under May - just simply will not - that's not who she is ( or Corbyn either ) -

Have the EU not said that there will not be an extension to A50 already?

trellheim

Have you forgotten what you posted? Specifically that they would request an extension in order to smooth a no deal?

No , I didn't forget at all ? To reiterate - they - the UK would request an extension from the EU to smooth a no-deal - correct. Not sure what you arent clear about in what I wrote.

1. If its going to be no deal then I reckon they will request a 3 month ( or whatever ) A50 extension at the very least to get some parking space off the M20

Arguments like 2nd Ref, cancel A50 - never happen under May - just simply will not - that's not who she is ( or Corbyn either ) -

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

Surely if it looked like a no deal was going to happen Ireland would be open to an extension of A50 for their own benefit as much as anything?

I'm not sure the rest of the EU would though.

I suspect the mood would be one of anger. The idea of an A50 extension was always that it would allow the British breathing space to solve the Brexit crisis, not to allow them take a sledgehammer to the UK-EU relationship and smash it to pieces. It is supposed to be a goodwill gesture not carte blanche for the Brexiteers to go on the rampage with their destructive No Deal.

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

I personally think they would grant it as long as it was before MEP elections at the end of may. It does not suit Ireland in the slightest for the UK to crash out with no deal ( by which I mean any time at all to extend our own prep and supply lines ) . Yes of course they would be angry but thats not realpolitik - some concession would be offered and accepted.

An extension to do what? There is not the least indication that the UK can or will get its act together in the foreseeable future, regardless of whether it's given an extension of three months or three years.

If Theresa May decides that the UK isn't adequately prepared for Brexit, all she has to do is ask for her A50-triggering letter to be returned and let her fellow Brits fight amongst themselves for another decade or so while the rest of us get on with life.

Alternatively, she can allow the process to continue until Brexit-day, then hand the reins over someone else and let her fellow Brits fight amongst themselves for another decade or so while the rest of us get on with life.

According to the Bloomberg article, TM's justification for not holding a second referendum is that "it would divide the country". If she truly believes that that is a risk for the future, she is more detached from the present than I thought.

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

Surely if it looked like a no deal was going to happen Ireland would be open to an extension of A50 for their own benefit as much as anything?

I'm not sure the rest of the EU would though.

To what end? Just to kick the ball down the road until the UK gathers it's nerve to leave with no deal?

Can't see why Ireland would go against the wishes of it's partners who just want this done now, I'd imagine.

bilston

Strazdas wrote: »

100% : I'd say most EU states, including Ireland, would be very angry if May came to them and said 'Can I have a three month A50 extension in order to prepare my country for a disastrous crashing out of the EU' (when she still has other options like a second referendum, withdrawing A50, caving in on her red lines etc).

Surely if it looked like a no deal was going to happen Ireland would be open to an extension of A50 for their own benefit as much as anything?

I'm not sure the rest of the EU would though.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

I personally think they would grant it as long as it was before MEP elections at the end of may. It does not suit Ireland in the slightest for the UK to crash out with no deal ( by which I mean any time at all to extend our own prep and supply lines ) . Yes of course they would be angry but thats not realpolitik - some concession would be offered and accepted.

Have you forgotten what you posted? Specifically that they would request an extension in order to smooth a no deal?

trellheim wrote: »

Yes.

Marr this morning seemed to indicate its no deal unless TM gets enough off Merkel etc to reassure the mob . Look for signs of an A50 extension request in the near future to smooth the no deal

trellheim

Strazdas wrote: »

100% : I'd say most EU states, including Ireland, would be very angry if May came to them and said 'Can I have a three month A50 extension in order to prepare my country for a disastrous crashing out of the EU' (when she still has other options like a second referendum, withdrawing A50, caving in on her red lines etc).

I personally think they would grant it as long as it was before MEP elections at the end of may. It does not suit Ireland in the slightest for the UK to crash out with no deal ( by which I mean any time at all to extend our own prep and supply lines ) . Yes of course they would be angry but thats not realpolitik - some concession would be offered and accepted.

As for your points

1) 2nd Referendum - never happen under May
2) Withdraw A50 - ditto
3) Caving on a red line - perhaps but difficult to see which one - it wont be FOM and I doubt it will be the Single Market. Maybe extend CFP for extra 5 years.

Silent Running

foxyladyxx wrote: »

So I did . .wrong video . .Apologies

In todays interview Teresa May warned that the UK would be in uncharted territory if her deal was not ratified

This interview serves a useful purpose, apart from showing how bad Marr is on the subject. It does highlight how little progress has been made in over 2 years of the Brexit process.

Stating things like "Britain would be in uncharted territory" is stating the blinding obvious. It was obvious over 2 years ago and it's still obvious now.

foxyladyxx

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think the poster thought that was today's interview.

So I did . .wrong video . .Apologies

In todays interview Teresa May warned that the UK would be in uncharted territory if her deal was not ratified

prawnsambo

Silent Running wrote: »

What is the relevance of posting a youtube video from October 2016? Are you suggesting nothing has changed since then? I suppose you're right. We haven't moved forward at all.

I think the poster thought that was today's interview.

Silent Running

foxyladyxx wrote: »

Teresa May's interview on Andrew Marr show

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b0kULuS5o8

What is the relevance of posting a youtube video from October 2016? Are you suggesting nothing has changed since then? I suppose you're right. We haven't moved forward at all.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is pure magical thinking. It would be hard to find one EU country that would agree to extend this mess so that the UK can use the time to ameliorate the effects of not actually ratifying the deal they have, never mind 27.

100% : I'd say most EU states, including Ireland, would be very angry if May came to them and said 'Can I have a three month A50 extension in order to prepare my country for a disastrous crashing out of the EU' (when she still has other options like a second referendum, withdrawing A50, caving in on her red lines etc).

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Yes.

Marr this morning seemed to indicate its no deal unless TM gets enough off Merkel etc to reassure the mob . Look for signs of an A50 extension request in the near future to smooth the no deal

This is pure magical thinking. It would be hard to find one EU country that would agree to extend this mess so that the UK can use the time to ameliorate the effects of not actually ratifying the deal they have, never mind 27.

foxyladyxx

Teresa May's interview on Andrew Marr show

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b0kULuS5o8

Capt'n Midnight

Turkey is in a customs union with the EU.

They don't have a veto or vote.

But they retain full control of Agriculture. Which means a Hard Border.
And an agri opt-out of a customs union is of no use to the UK as aren't a food exporter.

trellheim

Yes.

Marr this morning seemed to indicate its no deal unless TM gets enough off Merkel etc to reassure the mob . Look for signs of an A50 extension request in the near future to smooth the no deal

johnnyskeleton

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour are absolutely hopeless and I can only see no deal in 82 days time https://jonworth.eu/article-50-clock/

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1081890998094053376

He had previously said he wanted to be in "a customs union" with the EU and when asked if that meant remain he said "no, we would be in a customs union not the customs union".

He is now saying that he wants to be in a customs union where each soverign state is part of the decision making process. Kind of like the way the EU's trade deal with Canada required the UKs signature, which it got.

Labour's mantra should be "whats in a name? Does that which we call the EU by any other name not smell as sweet?"

A Dub in Glasgo

Labour are absolutely hopeless and I can only see no deal in 82 days time https://jonworth.eu/article-50-clock/

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1081890998094053376

Anthracite

The Amazon comparison rather missed the point that Amazon are not trying to smuggle their own goods out of the shop, unpaid for.

Akrasia

murphaph wrote: »

Exactly. The comparison is laughable. In the case of the supermarket you can also bet that every aisle is closely monitored by CCTV (probably with AI to detect manipulation/removal of the RFID tags from the products before proceeding through the checkout scanner.)

And this is supposed to be a high tech low visibility border lol.

Not to mention the fact that these systems regularly break down. What happens if the back end of the system goes offline for an update? Does the whole border close?

Or if parts of the system malfunction, do some roads close and reroute traffic elsewhere?

murphaph

Akrasia wrote: »

Completely different system where a shop has a stock control system and every item is electronically tagged by shop staff who can verify the quantity, weight and description of the goods while tagging them, compared with a border where the exporters and importers have an incentive to understate the value or quantity of the goods or alter the description to avoid taxes or regulations....

Exactly. The comparison is laughable. In the case of the supermarket you can also bet that every aisle is closely monitored by CCTV (probably with AI to detect manipulation/removal of the RFID tags from the products before proceeding through the checkout scanner.)

And this is supposed to be a high tech low visibility border lol.

Akrasia

judeboy101 wrote: »

Amazon have stores in america with no checkout

Completely different system where a shop has a stock control system and every item is electronically tagged by shop staff who can verify the quantity, weight and description of the goods while tagging them, compared with a border where the exporters and importers have an incentive to understate the value or quantity of the goods or alter the description to avoid taxes or regulations....

FrancieBrady

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Anything new being said?

Not much. She won't hold up a vote. And she will seek to reassure over the backstop.

Seth Brundle

lawred2 wrote: »

TM on Marr now

Anything new being said?

ancapailldorcha

rusty the athlete wrote: »

..er, what about the 'Diversion' sign? A prophecy?

rusty the athlete wrote: »

And the brits are lining up for chlorinated chicken, hormone beef and genetically modified veggies. Yumee!

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