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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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road_high

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

As they say down under "If you want to go to the outback take a Land Rover"

But they also say "If you want to come back take a Landcruiser"

Oz only accounts for less than 2% of UK vehicle exports.
It's just not going to replace the 60%+ that goes to the EU customs union.

Maybe the US, India and Africa will take the rest? I mean they all have such a love for all things British and Britain, they must be dying to take up the slack!

Capt'n Midnight

road_high wrote: »

Maybe the US, India and Africa will take the rest? I mean they all have such a love for all things British and Britain, they must be dying to take up the slack!

Outside of the EU the big markets are US and China.

Neither will give the UK a fair deal.

Next comes Turkey who MUST follow EU rules.
Then it's car exporting countries who already have a FTA with the EU. And Russia with it's own special niceties.

Without a good deal the UK car industry is screwed.
It will be an uphill battle to keep existing EU terms and conditions And/Or negotiate new deals with countries that comprise 1% or less of their current export market.

And that's before you consider that under WTO rules many UK cars have so many imported parts they aren't even considered 'UK' under the rules.

Also UK exports to former Commonwealth country's haven't increased despite the fall in Sterling.

Hurrache

The Washington Post

Britain clings to imperial nostalgia as Brexit looms

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/04/britain-clings-imperial-nostalgia-brexit-looms/

Strazdas

_Puma_ wrote: »

The tip of the iceberg.....

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1067715341424431106?s=19

This crazy stuff was inevitable once we got into January 2019 without an exit deal and not even a glimpse of a deal in sight. We're only weeks away from Brexit and they're still arguing and as divided as ever.

Calina

To implement any sort of technology based solution on a border, you have to define the underlying processes.

These are dependent on what the actual relationship will be. As such, bleating about the possibility is intellectually dishonest. The relationship has to be agreed before the business processes can be defined in such a way that a technological solution can be defined and implemented.

An Ciarraioch

Latest poll result:

Con 40% (-1)

Lab 34℅ (-5)

Lib Dem 10% (+3)

Green 4%

UKIP 4% (+1)

Which, according to Electoral Calculus, results in:

Con 333 (+15)

Lab 235 (-27)

SNP 41 (+6)

Lib Dem 19 (+7)

NI 18

Plaid Cymru 3 (-1)

Green 1

foxyladyxx

_Puma_ wrote: »

The tip of the iceberg.....

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1067715341424431106?s=19

Have been reading his twitter feed.

Project fear no doubt!!

An Ciarraioch

Guardian with new Brexit polling - Remain has a clear lead in every potential second referendum scenario, and Labour could see an electoral collapse if it assisted Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

foxyladyxx

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Guardian with new Brexit polling - Remain has a clear lead in every potential second referendum scenario, and Labour could see an electoral collapse if it assisted Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

That puts the cat among the pigeons,

I would have thought that leavers were well out in the lead.

_Puma_

foxyladyxx wrote: »

Have been reading his twitter feed.

Project fear no doubt!!

"Project fear" steadily manifesting into irredeemable reality.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Guardian with new Brexit polling - Remain has a clear lead in every potential second referendum scenario, and Labour could see an electoral collapse if it assisted Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

British people should be very angry about this. The main opposition party refusing to oppose the government at a time of national crisis and people saying they will vote for virtually anyone else unless Labour oppose May's Brexit plans.

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest poll result:

Con 40% (-1)

Lab 34℅ (-5)

Lib Dem 10% (+3)

Green 4%

UKIP 4% (+1)

Which, according to Electoral Calculus, results in:

Con 333 (+15)

Lab 235 (-27)

SNP 41 (+6)

Lib Dem 19 (+7)

NI 18

Plaid Cymru 3 (-1)

Green 1

Surely Labour look at this and see that the current policy, if indeed having no policy can be so described, is a disaster.

Everyone associated with Labour should be ashamed that a government as inept and divided as this one is actually gaining in support.

prawnsambo

Strazdas wrote: »

British people should be very angry about this. The main opposition party refusing to oppose the government at a time of national crisis and people saying they will vote for virtually anyone else unless Labour oppose May's Brexit plans.

Well when you see the Lib-Dems as the only party making ground and the opposition losing to them, you'd think that would concentrate minds in the Labour party. But I suspect we'll be watching squadrons of pigs flying past in perfect V formation before that happens.

LeinsterDub

foxyladyxx wrote: »

Have been reading his twitter feed.

Project fear no doubt!!

You will of course be able to point out which tweets and why it's project fear?

foxyladyxx

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You will of course be able to point out which tweets and why it's project fear?

Sure /.Here you go .

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1067715341424431106?s=19

LeinsterDub

foxyladyxx wrote: »

Sure /.Here you go .

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1067715341424431106?s=19

Is it your content every tweet in this thread is project fear or just the first one. If it's just the first one why so?

foxyladyxx

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Is it your content every tweet in this thread is project fear or just the first one. If it's just the first one why so?

I was being ironic.
I am on a British forum where every post that makes any semblance of sense is greeted with the roar of ''Project Fear''

The reality of a crash out Brexit fills me with fear.. I hope and pray that sanity will prevail.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well when you see the Lib-Dems as the only party making ground and the opposition losing to them, you'd think that would concentrate minds in the Labour party. But I suspect we'll be watching squadrons of pigs flying past in perfect V formation before that happens.

Problem is you have a hard Brexiteer as the Opposition leader. He's hiding behind the 'will of the people' and 'respecting the result of the referendum' nonsense when in truth he could come out and say he wanted to see Brexit chucked in the garbage bin and nobody would bat an eyelid.

Hurrache

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Labour could see an electoral collapse if it assisted Brexit:

That seems inevitable so since Corbyn is set on it. How awful a party must they be if they're losing percentage points and the Tories gaining them in this ridiculous situation they find themselves in.

prawnsambo

Strazdas wrote: »

Problem is you have a hard Brexiteer as the Opposition leader. He's hiding behind the 'will of the people' and 'respecting the result of the referendum' nonsense when in truth he could come out and say he wanted to see Brexit chucked in the garbage bin and nobody would bat an eyelid.

He's the worst leader Labour have ever had. By a large margin. But the rest of the party are too afraid of his grassroots support to do anything about it. It's like a bad movie where a bunch of highly coincidental and ridiculous events conspire to destroy the protagonist's life, except there's no redemption arc. The UK is going down the tube because... reasons.

Leroy42

Yes, but what are the grassroots doing about it? Cornyn was elected very much against the wishes of the parliamentary party, carried by the grassroots.

My recollection is that this was largely down to younger voters seeing Corbyn as a new way. Yet we are told that younger voters are more remain.

So what gives? Where are this grassroots now demanding their vote be respected?

Leroy42

10000maniacs

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest poll result:

Con 40% (-1)

Lab 34℅ (-5)

Lib Dem 10% (+3)

Green 4%

UKIP 4% (+1)

Which, according to Electoral Calculus, results in:

Con 333 (+15)

Lab 235 (-27)

SNP 41 (+6)

Lib Dem 19 (+7)

NI 18

Plaid Cymru 3 (-1)

Green 1

Labour should be eating the Tories alive in 2019, but they can't because the party is equally divided on Brexit. Brexit is 180 degrees out of sync with the 2 biggest UK parties in the Commons and that is the problem. Neither party can claim "Leave" or "Remain" as a policy and party labels have rarely been of so little use in predicting how people stand on a huge issue like Brexit. Young pro-Remain supporters who brought Labour back from the brink in 2017 are now beginning to see through Corbyn's relatively successful masking and finessing of his Brexit stance and he probably now sickens them to the core. The Lib Dems should be the huge anti-Brexit party now and would have been if Clegg hadn't have gone into coalition with the Tories in 2010. A squandered opportunity for them.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

This crazy stuff was inevitable once we got into January 2019 without an exit deal and not even a glimpse of a deal in sight. We're only weeks away from Brexit and they're still arguing and as divided as ever.

I reckoned their economy would have came through relatively unscathed if they’d signed up to the deal late 2018- that way, businesses would have had what they crave- certainty and pushed ahead with plans and investment for 2019- they all start off January in total limbo still meaning much of this year will be a write off as money goes elsewhere.
Really desperate way to run a country and an economy

road_high

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely Labour look at this and see that the current policy, if indeed having no policy can be so described, is a disaster.

Everyone associated with Labour should be ashamed that a government as inept and divided as this one is actually gaining in support.

It’s hard when their own leader is a hard Brexiter himself! He has always had a disdain for the EU-neo liberalist pro business, Anti state aid and so on....

FrancieBrady

The Tory-Labour fiddling while Rome London burns thing is reflected in the polls. There is no clarity to be gained from either a referendum or an election.

I cannot see a way out here. Looking like a No Deal because the UK is in disarray as a concept. They have to sort that union first before they can be a worthwhile member of any other union. Never thought I would see it tbh.

Folkstonian

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest poll result:

Con 40% (-1)

Lab 34℅ (-5)

Lib Dem 10% (+3)

Green 4%

UKIP 4% (+1)

Which, according to Electoral Calculus, results in:

Con 333 (+15)

Lab 235 (-27)

SNP 41 (+6)

Lib Dem 19 (+7)

NI 18

Plaid Cymru 3 (-1)

Green 1

I’m not actually surprised that Labour are steadily falling behind in the polls.

Corbyn’s Labour being in power is a desperate prospect. He is surrounded by (or rather, he has surrounded himself with) some seriously, deeply, unpleasant individuals.

His fanatical supporters from momentum hunt in packs on social media, aggressively dismissing anything and anyone that demonstrates a link between Jezza and some truly nasty antisemites

it’s a really ugly form of modern politics and it makes me feel somewhat reassured that the electorate haven’t completely lost their senses now that he is being shown up for the useless fool he is

The so called sensible, centrist majority in the parliamentary Labour Party should be ashamed for their complete refusal to do anything but watch as their party goes to hell in a handcart

Folkstonian

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Tory-Labour fiddling while Rome London burns thing is reflected in the polls. There is no clarity to be gained from either a referendum or an election.

I cannot see a way out here. Looking like a No Deal because the UK is in disarray as a concept. They have to sort that union first before they can be a worthwhile member of any other union. Never thought I would see it tbh.

Give it a rest with your snide little quips. Britain has pumped billions of pounds into the EU, provided millions of EU migrants with employment, been at the vanguard of European security and defence, led the way on huge European projects like the single market, stood up for smaller nations, including yours, against French and German ambitions for further integration, loads more.

I’ve made it known on here that I want Britain to stay, but if we don’t, we’ll good luck finding someone to fill the gap. There are few countries who could claim to be more worthwhile members.

FrancieBrady

Folkstonian wrote: »

Give it a rest with your snide little quips. Britain has pumped billions of pounds into the EU, provided millions of EU migrants with employment, been at the vanguard of European security and defence, held the led the way on huge European project like the single market, stood up for smaller nations, including yours, against French and German ambitions for further integration, loads more.

I’ve made it known on here that I want Britain to stay, but if we don’t, we’ll good luck finding someone to fill the gap. There are few countries who could claim to be more worthwhile members.

Nothing snide about it. More a realistic assessment.

If you cannot see the malaise within the UK that is your problem. I can see it, as most in the EU can.

rusty the athlete

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Right now in Pettigo if you take one road there are signs telling you which county you are in.

Or you can cross the border on another road 200m away with no signs.
https://www.google.com/maps/@54.552095,-7.8330588,3a,87.3y,246.21h,108.22t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sdEK71RUBCgvHb_zcjFnBWg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

..er, what about the 'Diversion' sign? A prophecy?