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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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ThePanjandrum

Russman wrote: »

And don’t some people’s farms / houses actually straddle the border ? You could have livestock crossing several times a day.

Fine with me, it's not going to be a huge problem as far as I'm concerned unless the EU still wants to slaughter animals that stray over a border.

Otherwise it should be covered by the existing passport system.

road_high

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

Border infrastructure of any kind won’t last two days. It’ll all be blown up or destroyed. Rightly or wrongly this is just the nature of the North and the troubles, thanks to partition which caused all this ****e.
Normal rules don’t apply like between France and the south of England

listermint

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Fine with me, it's not going to be a huge problem as far as I'm concerned unless the EU still wants to slaughter animals that stray over a border.

Otherwise it should be covered by the existing passport system.

The EU the EU the EU.

The UK will have to police their own borders buddy. Trade agreements don't just work when one side tries to shrugh off its responsibilities

Your ardent need to place the blame for borders at the EU door is gas

LeinsterDub

road_high wrote: »

Border infrastructure of any kind won’t last two days. It’ll all be blown up or destroyed. Rightly or wrongly this is just the nature of the North and the troubles, thanks to partition which caused all this ****e.
Normal rules don’t apply like between France and the south of England

Indeed in Northern Ireland . Signs welcoming people to Londonderry and Fáilte go i lár uaidh are constantly defaced and destroyed

Hurrache

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

What makes you say that, please use actual quotes as to how it can be implemented the length of the border.

fly_agaric

The whole argument about intelligence and good looks of the hard brexit NI border is pretty much beside the point IMO.

Would say nearly all the nationalists in the North don't want new border restrictions no matter how smart the technology is. Alot of unionists must have voted remain too to give the % obtained in NI and don't want them either. People in Ireland certainly don't want it.

The EU (as desired by the Irish Govt.) were perfectly correct to set out their stall for negotiations in such a way as to try and prevent that. Engaging with ideas of a bleeding edge IoT techno-border during the withdrawal negotiations would have been stupid. It would have been enabling the hard Brexit project and a betrayal of people in NI.

The way things are going such technologies may be needed for the border in future to try and mitigate damage caused by Brexit, but that is another story.

Nody

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Those are unlikely to be counted among the crossing points on the Smart Border 2.0 because they would not have large volumes of goods crossing there. Of course, the EU might insist on manning the border for phytosanitary purposes but that would be its decision.

You're a fun one, "Might man the border for phytosanitary purposes". You are fully aware it's a mandatory requirement for any third party border and that would include the NI border. You know what is even more funny though? UK would need to implement the exact same thing on their side because if not any country in the world has the right to import food to UK without any controls exactly as in NI. Think about all that lovely food coming from China without any quality controls; yummy!

That is of course beyond that fact that the report you're using is assuming UK is capable of doing their part of the border checks; seeing how they have a billion euro fine for failure to check imported Chinese goods why in the seven seas do you think EU would trust them this time to do it properly?

Hurrache

He's also purposely avoiding the whole "take back control of our borders" nonsene by advocating no border.

prawnsambo

Nody wrote: »

You're a fun one, "Might man the border for phytosanitary purposes". You are fully aware it's a mandatory requirement for any third party border and that would include the NI border. You know what is even more funny though? UK would need to implement the exact same thing on their side because if not any country in the world has the right to import food to UK without any controls exactly as in NI. Think about all that lovely food coming from China without any quality controls; yummy!

That is of course beyond that fact that the report you're using is assuming UK is capable of doing their part of the border checks; seeing how they have a billion euro fine for failure to check imported Chinese goods why in the seven seas do you think EU would trust them this time to do it properly?

It's also £2.7 billion of uncollected tariffs. The UK has a great reputation for looking after their obligations to other countries already. Will be fun times all round when they start trying to make trade deals all on their lonesome.

Seth Brundle

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

How exactly will it be perfectly possible?
How will it tell the contents of a van travelling by at 100km/h?
How will it tell if the products travelling across the border are legal and not something being smuggled?
If it were perfectly possible then someone somewhere around the world would have demonstrated it working. Can you please show us where online we can read about this demo?

LeinsterDub

Nody wrote: »

You're a fun one, "Might man the border for phytosanitary purposes". You are fully aware it's a mandatory requirement for any third party border and that would include the NI border. You know what is even more funny though? UK would need to implement the exact same thing on their side because if not any country in the world has the right to import food to UK without any controls exactly as in NI. Think about all that lovely food coming from China without any quality controls; yummy!

That is of course beyond that fact that the report you're using is assuming UK is capable of doing their part of the border checks; seeing how they have a billion euro fine for failure to check imported Chinese goods why in the seven seas do you think EU would trust them this time to do it properly?

I'm not sure they are fully aware of anything. Their posts seem to illustrate a profound lack of understanding. Perhaps it's feigned.

Seth Brundle

fly_agaric wrote: »

The way things are going such technologies may be needed for the border in future to try and mitigate damage caused by Brexit, but that is another story.

Well given that thousands of British soldiers couldn't defend the border in the past, they're right to consider anything else!

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

The EU the EU the EU.

The UK will have to police their own borders buddy. Trade agreements don't just work when one side tries to shrugh off its responsibilities

Your ardent need to place the blame for borders at the EU door is gas

Especially when Brexit was supposed to mean controlling one's own borders

fly_agaric

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Well given that thousands of British soldiers couldn't defend the border in the past, they're right to consider anything else!

Yes. I don't personally know enough about NI/border area to really predict how bad the backlash might be to any sort of checks/customs related infrastructure reappearing around the border on either the UK or Irish sides.

It is not an experiment I'd like to be making (I don't like juggling with live hand grenades either), and the Irish govt. and the EU seem to agree with that!

Of course the hard Brexiteers are courageous revolutionaries, so what the hell I suppose!
It's not Mogg's or Boris's bum that will be on the line anyway.

Seth Brundle

fly_agaric wrote: »

Of course the hard Brexiteers are courageous revolutionaries, so what the hell I suppose!
It's not Mogg's or Boris's bum that will be on the line anyway.

From what I can tell there are two types of hard Brexiteer when it comes to the impact on NI:
1. the DUP type who are so afraid of the possibility of becoming more Irish that they'll bite their nose to spite their face.
2. the English Tory type who doesn't give a flying feck about Ireland, north or south, so absolutely doesn't care what happens to those pesky Irish (who really should know their place anyhow).

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

Which means the UK can happily sign up to the Backstop because it won't ever be needed

Russman

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Fine with me, it's not going to be a huge problem as far as I'm concerned unless the EU still wants to slaughter animals that stray over a border.

Otherwise it should be covered by the existing passport system.

And if even one of these crossing is made “tarriff free”, are there WTO implications for the UK and any other country wanting to send livestock to, say England ?

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Which means the UK can happily sign up to the Backstop because it won't ever be needed

Yeah, that's the backstop paradox. Something that simultaneously isn't needed and can't be escaped. Depending on the day of the week or the latest pronouncement from an ERG type.

Seth Brundle

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, that's the backstop paradox. Something that simultaneously isn't needed and can't be escaped.

Schrodinger's Border?

Nody

Russman wrote: »

And if even one of these crossing is made “tarriff free”, are there WTO implications for the UK and any other country wanting to send livestock to, say England ?

Well I got this funny feeling that the current 10% checks done from NI to UK mainland for agricultural goods may "temporarily" go up to 100%. They will come down to normal level of course; just now right now... (stated by Tories/Labour as they throw NI under the 350MM to NHS bus).

rusty the athlete

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, that's the backstop paradox. Something that simultaneously isn't needed and can't be escaped. Depending on the day of the week or the latest pronouncement from an ERG type.

Its a completely new discipline called Quantum Politics.

road_high

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's also £2.7 billion of uncollected tariffs. The UK has a great reputation for looking after their obligations to other countries already. Will be fun times all round when they start trying to make trade deals all on their lonesome.

Brexit confirmed what a disorganized, untrustworthy bunch their government are. Doesn’t exactly bode well when they dive into the sharks pond of world trade deals.
I think they genuinely thought the non EU world had some kind of teary eyed nostalgia just dying to “ help out” their long lost cousins in the old country

Nody

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Its a completely new discipline called Quantum Politics.

Nah; it was already instituted by George Orwell and it's known as Doublethink.

“Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”

road_high

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Indeed in Northern Ireland . Signs welcoming people to Londonderry and Fáilte go i lár uaidh are constantly defaced and destroyed

Or the welcome to Northern Ireland ones which are frankly even more ridiculous

UsedToWait

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

Nody wrote: »

You're a fun one, "Might man the border for phytosanitary purposes". You are fully aware it's a mandatory requirement for any third party border and that would include the NI border. You know what is even more funny though? UK would need to implement the exact same thing on their side because if not any country in the world has the right to import food to UK without any controls exactly as in NI. Think about all that lovely food coming from China without any quality controls; yummy!

That is of course beyond that fact that the report you're using is assuming UK is capable of doing their part of the border checks; seeing how they have a billion euro fine for failure to check imported Chinese goods why in the seven seas do you think EU would trust them this time to do it properly?

I was unaware of the origins of the poster's username, but it seems apt:

At first all went well. Panjandrum rolled into the sea and began to head for the shore, the Brass Hats watching through binoculars from the top of a pebble ridge [...] Then a clamp gave: first one, then two more rockets broke free: Panjandrum began to lurch ominously. It hit a line of small craters in the sand and began to turn to starboard, careering towards Klemantaski, who, viewing events through a telescopic lens, misjudged the distance and continued filming. Hearing the approaching roar he looked up from his viewfinder to see Panjandrum, shedding live rockets in all directions, heading straight for him. As he ran for his life, he glimpsed the assembled admirals and generals diving for cover behind the pebble ridge into barbed-wire entanglements. Panjandrum was now heading back to the sea but crashed on to the sand where it disintegrated in violent explosions, rockets tearing across the beach at great speed.

Given the results of the trial, it is perhaps not surprising that the project was scrapped almost immediately over safety concerns. However, it has since been suggested that the entire project was a hoax devised as part of Operation Fortitude, to convince the Germans that plans were being developed to attack the heavily fortified defences surrounding the Pas-de-Calais rather than the less-defended Normandy coastline.[1]

fly_agaric

(Assume) it is probably the dictionary definition (the boss, chief bottle washer!) rather than the mad scientist WW2 weapon of that name but it is a bit funny alright given the thread topic. Probably everyone just wants to run for cover and hide from Brexit at this stage.

Capt'n Midnight

road_high wrote: »

Or the welcome to Northern Ireland ones which are frankly even more ridiculous

Right now in Pettigo if you take one road there are signs telling you which county you are in.

Or you can cross the border on another road 200m away with no signs.
https://www.google.com/maps/@54.552095,-7.8330588,3a,87.3y,246.21h,108.22t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sdEK71RUBCgvHb_zcjFnBWg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

_Puma_

The tip of the iceberg.....

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1067715341424431106?s=19

road_high

_Puma_ wrote: »

The tip of the iceberg.....

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1067715341424431106?s=19

But it’ll be all worth it...Australia and the USA are queuing up to buy more Land Rovers and JCBs

Capt'n Midnight

road_high wrote: »

But it’ll be all worth it...Australia and the USA are queuing up to buy more Land Rovers and JCBs

As they say down under "If you want to go to the outback take a Land Rover"

But they also say "If you want to come back take a Landcruiser"

Oz only accounts for less than 2% of UK vehicle exports.
It's just not going to replace the 60%+ that goes to the EU customs union.