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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Hurrache

He's also purposely avoiding the whole "take back control of our borders" nonsene by advocating no border.

Nody

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Those are unlikely to be counted among the crossing points on the Smart Border 2.0 because they would not have large volumes of goods crossing there. Of course, the EU might insist on manning the border for phytosanitary purposes but that would be its decision.

You're a fun one, "Might man the border for phytosanitary purposes". You are fully aware it's a mandatory requirement for any third party border and that would include the NI border. You know what is even more funny though? UK would need to implement the exact same thing on their side because if not any country in the world has the right to import food to UK without any controls exactly as in NI. Think about all that lovely food coming from China without any quality controls; yummy!

That is of course beyond that fact that the report you're using is assuming UK is capable of doing their part of the border checks; seeing how they have a billion euro fine for failure to check imported Chinese goods why in the seven seas do you think EU would trust them this time to do it properly?

fly_agaric

The whole argument about intelligence and good looks of the hard brexit NI border is pretty much beside the point IMO.

Would say nearly all the nationalists in the North don't want new border restrictions no matter how smart the technology is. Alot of unionists must have voted remain too to give the % obtained in NI and don't want them either. People in Ireland certainly don't want it.

The EU (as desired by the Irish Govt.) were perfectly correct to set out their stall for negotiations in such a way as to try and prevent that. Engaging with ideas of a bleeding edge IoT techno-border during the withdrawal negotiations would have been stupid. It would have been enabling the hard Brexit project and a betrayal of people in NI.

The way things are going such technologies may be needed for the border in future to try and mitigate damage caused by Brexit, but that is another story.

Hurrache

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

What makes you say that, please use actual quotes as to how it can be implemented the length of the border.

LeinsterDub

road_high wrote: »

Border infrastructure of any kind won’t last two days. It’ll all be blown up or destroyed. Rightly or wrongly this is just the nature of the North and the troubles, thanks to partition which caused all this ****e.
Normal rules don’t apply like between France and the south of England

Indeed in Northern Ireland . Signs welcoming people to Londonderry and Fáilte go i lár uaidh are constantly defaced and destroyed

listermint

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Fine with me, it's not going to be a huge problem as far as I'm concerned unless the EU still wants to slaughter animals that stray over a border.

Otherwise it should be covered by the existing passport system.

The EU the EU the EU.

The UK will have to police their own borders buddy. Trade agreements don't just work when one side tries to shrugh off its responsibilities

Your ardent need to place the blame for borders at the EU door is gas

road_high

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

Border infrastructure of any kind won’t last two days. It’ll all be blown up or destroyed. Rightly or wrongly this is just the nature of the North and the troubles, thanks to partition which caused all this ****e.
Normal rules don’t apply like between France and the south of England

ThePanjandrum

Russman wrote: »

And don’t some people’s farms / houses actually straddle the border ? You could have livestock crossing several times a day.

Fine with me, it's not going to be a huge problem as far as I'm concerned unless the EU still wants to slaughter animals that stray over a border.

Otherwise it should be covered by the existing passport system.

LeinsterDub

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Those are unlikely to be counted among the crossing points on the Smart Border 2.0 because they would not have large volumes of goods crossing there. Of course, the EU might insist on manning the border for phytosanitary purposes but that would be its decision.

So your unicornist border has magic cameras and infrastructure but only in certain places and in the places you ignore smuggling won't be off the charts because of reasons? That about the gist?

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

What makes you think that. Please use actual quotes from the Agreement instead of claiming that it's somehow inherent though unsaid.

Here's something somebody else did that will explain it for you.

Dv_vK3pX0AES0nd.jpg:large

rusty the athlete

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

That's why the brits are training 1000 police officers from the rest of the UK to deal with trouble arising from hard border (as rported in the Guardian yesterday). Meanwhile a 51 year old man is stabbed to death on a train in front of his son yesterday, two women are in critical condition after being stabbed to today and January has started with at least a murder a day. This is what the Maybot calls 'taking back control'. Pity the 1000 police officers, how the brit ruling classes like sending people 'over the top' as long as they don't have to do it themselves.

ThePanjandrum

cml387 wrote: »

I would really like to sit down and have a congenial glass of wine with Mr Clarke, he seems like a most companionable person.

You've never met Ken Clarke then?

Russman

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You know some of these border crossing are basically planks of wood over a steam? How do you propose these cameras and infrastructure are protected?

And don’t some people’s farms / houses actually straddle the border ? You could have livestock crossing several times a day.

ThePanjandrum

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You know some of these border crossing are basically planks of wood over a steam? How do you propose these cameras and infrastructure are protected?

Those are unlikely to be counted among the crossing points on the Smart Border 2.0 because they would not have large volumes of goods crossing there. Of course, the EU might insist on manning the border for phytosanitary purposes but that would be its decision.

LeinsterDub

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

You know some of these border crossing are basically planks of wood over a steam? How do you propose these cameras and infrastructure are protected?

ThePanjandrum

10000maniacs wrote: »

If there is a hard Brexit or no backstop, that would mean cancelling the Good Friday Agreement in its current form.

What makes you think that. Please use actual quotes from the Agreement instead of claiming that it's somehow inherent though unsaid.

ThePanjandrum

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A smart border is impossible regardless of the kind of Brexit. Smart borders require cameras and scanners etc. It's not possible to do so at over 300 crossings and it's debatable that such infrastructure would survive a week.

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

ThePanjandrum

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

the whole smart border 2.0 point is fine. But it requires that the EU/UK have a comprehensive trade deal first. It says as much in that paper as the first and foremost requirement.

No, it says that there must be an agreement on advanced customs cooperation, the system can still run with no trade agreement at all.

cml387

Two contrasting opinions on Radio Four's Today programme this morning.

First John (now of course Sir John) Redwood with the usual stuff about nothing to fear from a hard Brexit and everything will be fine.

Ken Clarke was more interesting in that he seems to be advocating revoking article 50 and then sorting out the real politics of withdrawal before supposedly invoking it again when parliament has made up it's mind.

Nothing new really but Ken did dismiss the referendum result as "an opinion poll".

I would really like to sit down and have a congenial glass of wine with Mr Clarke, he seems like a most companionable person.

RobMc59

Gerry T wrote: »

I don't get the tit for tat comment. Do you not mean tat for tat ?
The UK pulls out of the EU aviation and safety authority and It doesn't have it's own. So it causes a massive problem for UK airlines. And the answer to this, freeze assets it has in the EU

Now most people would say that's just feckin crazy, shot yourself in the foot and fix that by cutting of your arm

Or have I taken you up wrong ?

I meant in a theoretical worst case scenario which all agree is unlikely to happen.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

Likewise. But they seem to be slow walking themselves (yourself ) over a cliff. At some point, somebody should point out how much this shambles has cost so far, how much it's going to cost in the future with the duplication of all the things the EU used to do for the UK and balance it against the contribution payments. I'm betting that the EU system is cheaper. And better.

I agree-but do think a plus side of all this being dragged out is leavers seeing Trumps increasingly bizarre behaviour will be thinking "Are we really going to throw our lot in with them?"and might convince more to favour remain over such an uncertain future.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

And who would deny them that?-There's only the misguided souls(people like JRM and co)who have a ridiculous 19th century British empire attitude to all this-its the same with passports being produced by France and the dredging of ramsgate by the dutch-if they're the most competitive or have the expertise that's how it should be.
By the way I hope all this is irrelevant as the UK stays in the EU.

Likewise. But they seem to be slow walking themselves (yourself

) over a cliff. At some point, somebody should point out how much this shambles has cost so far, how much it's going to cost in the future with the duplication of all the things the EU used to do for the UK and balance it against the contribution payments. I'm betting that the EU system is cheaper. And better.

Gerry T

I don't get the tit for tat comment. Do you not mean tat for tat ?
The UK pulls out of the EU aviation and safety authority and It doesn't have it's own. So it causes a massive problem for UK airlines. And the answer to this, freeze assets it has in the EU

Now most people would say that's just feckin crazy, shot yourself in the foot and fix that by cutting of your arm

Or have I taken you up wrong ?

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well we do know what will happen. The EU has agreed to allow flights from the UK on a temporary basis until proper certification is in place or for nine months. All of the worst case scenarios are temporary in any case. It's just going to be more expensive for the UK because of having to take all that bureaucracy in house instead of outsourcing it to the EU.

So for the French investors, they may take a hit in earnings for a year or so, but they've still got themselves a bargain.

And who would deny them that?-There's only the misguided souls(people like JRM and co)who have a ridiculous 19th century British empire attitude to all this-its the same with passports being produced by France and the dredging of ramsgate by the dutch-if they're the most competitive or have the expertise that's how it should be.
By the way I hope all this is irrelevant as the UK stays in the EU.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe the case but it's unlikely they bought a controlling share thinking UK airports will be paralysed after 29th March-don't forget,if the armageddon scenerio comes to pass who knows what may happen-the UK may freeze all EU assets in a bizarre tit for tat squabble.

No. They literally got it for a song.

There's not insider information here on a deal on brexit. It was a bargain whatever happens.

And it's the type of bargain more foreign investors and vulture funds can expect coming.

Great news for the British people..... And not some insider need of everything being hunky dory post brexit

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Umm... that's a proposal in the event of a no-deal, not an agreement unless you can point me at something ? . In the current no-deal guidance its point-to-point only and its only a proposal, you need more than that !

More than that for what? It's not that relevant in the context of a long term investment. Nobody's saying flight issues will continue indefinitely. So whether the EU proposal goes ahead or something else is agreed, there will be business as normal after a short term hiatus.

trellheim

he EU has agreed to allow flights from the UK on a temporary basis until proper certification is in place or for nine months

Umm... that's a proposal in the event of a no-deal, not an agreement unless you can point me at something ? . In the current no-deal guidance its point-to-point only and its only a proposal, you need more than that !

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe the case but it's unlikely they bought a controlling share thinking UK airports will be paralysed after 29th March-don't forget,if the armageddon scenerio comes to pass who knows what may happen-the UK may freeze all EU assets in a bizarre tit for tat squabble.

Well we do know what will happen. The EU has agreed to allow flights from the UK on a temporary basis until proper certification is in place or for nine months. All of the worst case scenarios are temporary in any case. It's just going to be more expensive for the UK because of having to take all that bureaucracy in house instead of outsourcing it to the EU.

So for the French investors, they may take a hit in earnings for a year or so, but they've still got themselves a bargain.

Seth Brundle

10000maniacs wrote: »

If there is a hard Brexit or no backstop, that would mean cancelling the Good Friday Agreement in its current form. Which Irish party in their right mind would take on the political responsibility of doing that?

Absolutely none. It would be as a direct result of a British choice of Brexit. The Irish government have not, do not and will not have had an input into how the UK tears itself apart.

prawnsambo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A smart border is impossible regardless of the kind of Brexit. Smart borders require cameras and scanners etc. It's not possible to do so at over 300 crossings and it's debatable that such infrastructure would survive a week.

It also assumes a degree of honesty and compliance that would be impossible to guarantee. The scope for people to make very big money would be enormous.