nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

The French buyers said they were surprised that they could purchase it for a significantly lesser sum than the 20 times earnings they would have normally expected. In other words, they got a substantial bargain.

That maybe the case but it's unlikely they bought a controlling share thinking UK airports will be paralysed after 29th March-don't forget,if the armageddon scenerio comes to pass who knows what may happen-the UK may freeze all EU assets in a bizarre tit for tat squabble.

LeinsterDub

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

So a smart border is impossible in a hard brexit scenario

A smart border is impossible regardless of the kind of Brexit. Smart borders require cameras and scanners etc. It's not possible to do so at over 300 crossings and it's debatable that such infrastructure would survive a week.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

As you point out sterling has dropped since 2016 but it's questionable French investors sunk billions into an airport thinking it may be able to make a profit down the line if planes are allowed to fly in and out of the UK.
Personally I'm hoping the UK comes to its senses but there are a myriad of scenarios apart from the absolute worst case some seem only to see.
I think May's deal will be rejected unless the EU ride to her rescue (it might be in their interest to help her get that deal over the line) and there is a 2nd vote and how that goes is anyone's bet.

The French buyers said they were surprised that they could purchase it for a significantly lesser sum than the 20 times earnings they would have normally expected. In other words, they got a substantial bargain.

BlitzKrieg

the whole smart border 2.0 point is fine. But it requires that the EU/UK have a comprehensive trade deal first. It says as much in that paper as the first and foremost requirement.

A bilateral EU-UK agreement regulating advanced customs cooperation avoiding
duplication and with possibility to carry out tasks on each other ;
Mutual recognition of Authorised Economic Operators (AEO);
A Customs-to-Customs technical agreement on exchange of risk data;
Pre-registration of Operators (AEO) and People (Trusted Commercial Travellers
programme in combination with a Certified Taxable Person programme);
Identification system by the border;
A Single Window with one-stop-shop-elements;
A Unique Consignment reference number (UCR);
Simplified Customs declaration system (100% electronic) with re-use of export
data for imports;
Mobile Control and Inspection Units;
Technical surveillance of the border (CCTV, ANPR etc).

So a smart border is impossible in a hard brexit scenario

And a soft brexit scenario requires guarantees from both the UK and EU not to put the Good Friday Agreement at risk

which is why the EU proposed a bloody backstop.

But the UK is so overfilled with this bizarre fear that the EU would trap them forever using the backstop that the very process that they wanted is being sunk.

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It just shows how much Sterling has dropped.

Seeing as how they are in the business they probably in it for the long haul.

Whatever happens after Brexit planes will still fly. It's just that UK carriers will have some disadvantages compared to EU and US carriers.

As you point out sterling has dropped since 2016 but it's questionable French investors sunk billions into an airport thinking it may be able to make a profit down the line if planes are allowed to fly in and out of the UK.
Personally I'm hoping the UK comes to its senses but there are a myriad of scenarios apart from the absolute worst case some seem only to see.
I think May's deal will be rejected unless the EU ride to her rescue (it might be in their interest to help her get that deal over the line) and there is a 2nd vote and how that goes is anyone's bet.

CelticRambler

judeboy101 wrote: »

Amazon have stores in america with no checkout

Motorways in Ireland have scanners that automatically log your toll before letting you through. That doesn't stop people tailgating (or "bonnetgating") to avoid paying. This kind of technology only works where either you have the manpower to enforce compliance (e.g. airport security/microwave body scanners) or where the population is habitually compliant with the law. Even in the Republic, that's not a particularly notable trait.

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

That report was highly speculative and theoretical. Trade experts who read it said it was full of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and extremely unlikely ever to work in real life.

The British right wing press and the hard Brexiteers seized on it though and claimed for a year afterwards that it was the solution to all the Irish border problems.

20silkcut wrote: »

If such solutions existed then shops and supermarkets wouldn’t need checkouts and we would see such technology in action everyday.

judeboy101 wrote: »

Amazon have stores in america with no checkout

In theory, we would need neither cash nor card but would allow facial recognition software to identify us and process payments directly from our account.

There is quite the gap between things being possible and practical, both technologically and culturally.

judeboy101

20silkcut wrote: »

If such solutions existed then shops and supermarkets wouldn’t need checkouts and we would see such technology in action everyday.

Amazon have stores in america with no checkout

20silkcut

Strazdas wrote: »

That report was highly speculative and theoretical. Trade experts who read it said it was full of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and extremely unlikely ever to work in real life.

The British right wing press and the hard Brexiteers seized on it though and claimed for a year afterwards that it was the solution to all the Irish border problems.

If such solutions existed then shops and supermarkets wouldn’t need checkouts and we would see such technology in action everyday.

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

That report was highly speculative and theoretical. Trade experts who read it said it was full of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and extremely unlikely ever to work in real life.

The British right wing press and the hard Brexiteers seized on it though and claimed for a year afterwards that it was the solution to all the Irish border problems.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the EU really forsee the worst case scenario happening isn't it strange that French investors happily bought a controlling share of Gatwick airport?

It just shows how much Sterling has dropped.

Seeing as how they are in the business they probably in it for the long haul.

Whatever happens after Brexit planes will still fly. It's just that UK carriers will have some disadvantages compared to EU and US carriers.

10000maniacs

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

If there is a hard Brexit or no backstop, that would mean cancelling the Good Friday Agreement in its current form. Which Irish party in their right mind would take on the political responsibility of doing that?

milhous

milhous wrote: »

Yeah I'll go through Dublin. But they always tend to be a lot cheaper. Dublin and Belfast are both an hour away so I generally check both. Just saw waiting times in Belfast at the minute on Twitter, have they already started extra security protocols or something?

https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/belfastairport?lang=en

milhous

prawnsambo wrote: »

I suspect there's a reason it's half the price. And the reason is that people are not booking. Uncertainty about what will happen post March 29th would be top of the list. And this is just another brexit bonus. At least you have a choice. Think of people booking flights from London or Manchester and what they may be facing.

Yeah I'll go through Dublin. But they always tend to be a lot cheaper. Dublin and Belfast are both an hour away so I generally check both. Just saw waiting times in Belfast at the minute on Twitter, have they already started extra security protocols or something?

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

I suspect there's a reason it's half the price. And the reason is that people are not booking. Uncertainty about what will happen post March 29th would be top of the list. And this is just another brexit bonus. At least you have a choice. Think of people booking flights from London or Manchester and what they may be facing.

If the EU really forsee the worst case scenario happening isn't it strange that French investors happily bought a controlling share of Gatwick airport?

prawnsambo

milhous wrote: »

Well it's half the price. But I suppose no point in Ruining a holiday over a few hundred quid

I suspect there's a reason it's half the price. And the reason is that people are not booking. Uncertainty about what will happen post March 29th would be top of the list. And this is just another brexit bonus. At least you have a choice. Think of people booking flights from London or Manchester and what they may be facing.

Gerry T

milhous wrote:

Well it's half the price. But I suppose no point in Ruining a holiday over a few hundred quid

Say the flight you book was to France but the airline intended the flight to go Belfast, France, Italy, Germany, Belfast. Obviously different passengers. This could be stopped by EU in April. Indications are UK flights cane go in/out but not all about ! Plus there's the insurance issue, even if the EU says ok in principal, because the UK won't be in the EU aviation industry, do who's regulating the UK ground maintenance, including de-icing teams. An insurance co could have a major issue here. Finally some EU airport may deem the UK flight as a risk due to regulation issue and wheel out the fire brigade, ambulance etc for UK originated flights. To me if it were 100 or 200e I'd stick with Dublin

LeinsterDub

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

You either didn't read the it, don't understand the problem, are being disingenuous or all of the above

milhous

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd book through Dublin if it's all the same. The EU have said that they will implement a short term system for allowing flights to continue to transit from UK airports to the EU, but I would be concerned about delays at the very least.

Well it's half the price. But I suppose no point in Ruining a holiday over a few hundred quid

CelticRambler

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not read it first. It's based on more than 200 crossing points and other crossings and requires little physical change.

I did read it (twice, in fact) as did many of us here, and it was comprehensively discussed on this forum last year. So-called "smart" technology is only as intelligent as those making legal transactions across the border allow it to be. The "Irish border" has never been a model of legal trade.

You may also remember that the UK governement recently passed legislation specifically committing to adding no new infrastructure along the border post Brexit; so "smart" can't work. Just one of the many instances of the UK going out of its way to make life more complicated for themselves. Nothing to do with the EU.

prawnsambo

milhous wrote: »

Sorry, do not want to derail current conversation just a quick question on a hard brexit as it stands at the minute. Will this just mean that things go back to customs check points etc. and we're still good to go up north?

Thinking of booking flights after March 29th from Belfast but may go through Dublin depending on answer.

I'd book through Dublin if it's all the same. The EU have said that they will implement a short term system for allowing flights to continue to transit from UK airports to the EU, but I would be concerned about delays at the very least.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

Nope, there is identification system that is required at the border in that study and seeing that this is not done currently it will mean new infrastructure that needs to be built. So right there it doesn't solve the Irish Border problems at all.

There's also talk of manned border crossings, gates for goods vehicles and CCTV/ANPR systems. None of which are currently present. And that's just from the summary.

milhous

Sorry, do not want to derail current conversation just a quick question on a hard brexit as it stands at the minute. Will this just mean that things go back to customs check points etc. and we're still good to go up north?

Thinking of booking flights after March 29th from Belfast but may go through Dublin depending on answer.

listermint

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Your main export market is the EU not the US and the pound is down 16% against the Euro. (1.30 vs 1.12)

That leaves 3% growth from a 16% devaluation, and that's before taking into account inflation.

I'm sure he's fully aware that the exports are currently with SM access. A matter which will stop lock stock and barrel in march.

So whilst few exporters are making hay now and the wider country is making losses. All of them will hit the wall in a few weeks time. Stone dead.

jochenstacker

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

There's the usual waffle about "smart technologies" that, to me, translates to unicorn poop.
This stuck out

Non-intrusive inspection technologies: Where controls on goods or vehicles are
required, the use of scanners and other non-intrusive technologies for inspections
prior to any requirement to open or stop a vehicle.

Surely only if the occupants don't mind getting irradiated.

Enzokk

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

Nope, there is identification system that is required at the border in that study and seeing that this is not done currently it will mean new infrastructure that needs to be built. So right there it doesn't solve the Irish Border problems at all.

ThePanjandrum

Anthracite wrote: »

...by publishing it on the internet for everyone to see.

Does the cognitive dissonance ever intrude on your conscious mind? Or is it entirely unconscious?

And how many times do you look for discarded and archived items? Probably not very often. The document is there to see if you know that it exists.

ThePanjandrum

sink wrote: »

In $ value exports have increased about 8% since the brexit vote. Meanwhile as you rightly point out the pound has fallen by 10% against the dollar. Exports have increased at a slower rate than the pound has fallen. That is equivalent of having a sale with 10% off all items and only increasing revenue by 8%, that would equate to a net loss in profitability. You've sold more stuff but the margin was lower and now you have less money after expenditure than if you never had the sale.

You may want to check your calculations. You seem to have taken the fall in value off twice. The actual increase in US$ terms over the period is 7%.

Anthracite

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

...by publishing it on the internet for everyone to see.

Does the cognitive dissonance ever intrude on your conscious mind? Or is it entirely unconscious?

ThePanjandrum

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Your main export market is the EU not the US and the pound is down 16% against the Euro. (1.30 vs 1.12)

That leaves 3% growth from a 16% devaluation, and that's before taking into account inflation.

Also, the GBP spiked before the referendum because speculators thought that the UK would remain so the actual fall in sterling is between 13 and 13.5% against the Euro. I've paid out more than £100,000 worth of Euros today so I do keep an eye on exchange rates.