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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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ThePanjandrum

josip wrote: »

Are the units of the Y axis GBP?

The Y axis is in GBP Billion.

Since the Brexit vote the pound has fallen by about 10% against the US$ and exports has increased by about 19%.

sKeith

Sam Russell wrote: »

There are 300 crossings on that border, with some stretches passing through houses. The real solution is a UI, but that comes with other problems, not unrelated to the existing border if it becomes a hard border.

The GFA was founded on the fact that both sides were in the SM, and only if that continues will there be no problem. Anything that causes a deviation from SM both sides of the border is asking for trouble.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

Taking the figure earlier for 300 border crossings.
There may be more.

This paper proposes setting up 'customs gateways'.
I'm guessing that they are not going to setup 300 smart gateways.
So, They will have to close 280 border crossings and redirect traffic away to one of the 20 smart custom gateways. When you close a road off, you could be seperating a house from a shop or a neighbour or family member, that are a mile down that road now, and to get to the same neighbour though a new smart customs gateway, they might have to travel 50 miles.
That is not keeping the border open. You would be seperating families and friends who at the moment live close to each other but after the smart border is established, they have to travel long distances to see each other.

This then gives reasons for these familys to be angry and try to reopen roads back up themselves.

I seriously doubt the plan involved 300 smart custom gateways, one for each existing border crossing.

CelticRambler

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems ...

... if they weren't Irish border problems. The concepts suggested are unrealistic in the context of the political (or terrorist) aspects surrounding the border. Physical infrastructure that will inevitably be a target; a complex border geography that doesn't match any of the case studies; a requirement for the UK to create and manage protocols that it has show itself incapable of handling even when they were ideas of the UK's own making (e.g. the existing trusted trader scheme); and, of course, the magical technology which doesn't actually exist in a coherent form.

Nevertheless, the WA includes provision for exactly this kind of arrangement ... just as soon as the ERG & Co. present a working model for evaluation.

Nate--IRL--

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

If the solution satisfies both sides, then it can replace the backstop when it is ready to be implemented. Everybody is happy.

Nate

sink

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The Y axis is in GBP Billion.

Since the Brexit vote the pound has fallen by about 10% against the US$ and exports has increased by about 19%.

In $ value exports have increased about 8% since the brexit vote. Meanwhile as you rightly point out the pound has fallen by 10% against the dollar. Exports have increased at a slower rate than the pound has fallen. That is equivalent of having a sale with 10% off all items and only increasing revenue by 8%, that would equate to a net loss in profitability. You've sold more stuff but the margin was lower and now you have less money after expenditure than if you never had the sale.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The Y axis is in GBP Billion.

Since the Brexit vote the pound has fallen by about 10% against the US$ and exports has increased by about 19%.

Your main export market is the EU not the US and the pound is down 16% against the Euro. (1.30 vs 1.12)

That leaves 3% growth from a 16% devaluation, and that's before taking into account inflation.

ThePanjandrum

CelticRambler wrote: »

... if they weren't Irish border problems. The concepts suggested are unrealistic in the context of the political (or terrorist) aspects surrounding the border. Physical infrastructure that will inevitably be a target; a complex border geography that doesn't match any of the case studies; a requirement for the UK to create and manage protocols that it has show itself incapable of handling even when they were ideas of the UK's own making (e.g. the existing trusted trader scheme); and, of course, the magical technology which doesn't actually exist in a coherent form.

Nevertheless, the WA includes provision for exactly this kind of arrangement ... just as soon as the ERG & Co. present a working model for evaluation.

Why not read it first. It's based on more than 200 crossing points and other crossings and requires little physical change. Of course, if people decide to destroy infrastructure then it just slows down the processing - assuming that Leo wants to build a border.

ThePanjandrum

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Your main export market is the EU not the US and the pound is down 16% against the Euro. (1.30 vs 1.12)

That leaves 3% growth from a 16% devaluation, and that's before taking into account inflation.

International statistics are given in US$, not in Euros.

ThePanjandrum

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Your main export market is the EU not the US and the pound is down 16% against the Euro. (1.30 vs 1.12)

That leaves 3% growth from a 16% devaluation, and that's before taking into account inflation.

Also, the GBP spiked before the referendum because speculators thought that the UK would remain so the actual fall in sterling is between 13 and 13.5% against the Euro. I've paid out more than £100,000 worth of Euros today so I do keep an eye on exchange rates.

Anthracite

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

...by publishing it on the internet for everyone to see.

Does the cognitive dissonance ever intrude on your conscious mind? Or is it entirely unconscious?

ThePanjandrum

sink wrote: »

In $ value exports have increased about 8% since the brexit vote. Meanwhile as you rightly point out the pound has fallen by 10% against the dollar. Exports have increased at a slower rate than the pound has fallen. That is equivalent of having a sale with 10% off all items and only increasing revenue by 8%, that would equate to a net loss in profitability. You've sold more stuff but the margin was lower and now you have less money after expenditure than if you never had the sale.

You may want to check your calculations. You seem to have taken the fall in value off twice. The actual increase in US$ terms over the period is 7%.

ThePanjandrum

Anthracite wrote: »

...by publishing it on the internet for everyone to see.

Does the cognitive dissonance ever intrude on your conscious mind? Or is it entirely unconscious?

And how many times do you look for discarded and archived items? Probably not very often. The document is there to see if you know that it exists.

Enzokk

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

Nope, there is identification system that is required at the border in that study and seeing that this is not done currently it will mean new infrastructure that needs to be built. So right there it doesn't solve the Irish Border problems at all.

jochenstacker

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

There's the usual waffle about "smart technologies" that, to me, translates to unicorn poop.
This stuck out

Non-intrusive inspection technologies: Where controls on goods or vehicles are
required, the use of scanners and other non-intrusive technologies for inspections
prior to any requirement to open or stop a vehicle.

Surely only if the occupants don't mind getting irradiated.

listermint

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Your main export market is the EU not the US and the pound is down 16% against the Euro. (1.30 vs 1.12)

That leaves 3% growth from a 16% devaluation, and that's before taking into account inflation.

I'm sure he's fully aware that the exports are currently with SM access. A matter which will stop lock stock and barrel in march.

So whilst few exporters are making hay now and the wider country is making losses. All of them will hit the wall in a few weeks time. Stone dead.

milhous

Sorry, do not want to derail current conversation just a quick question on a hard brexit as it stands at the minute. Will this just mean that things go back to customs check points etc. and we're still good to go up north?

Thinking of booking flights after March 29th from Belfast but may go through Dublin depending on answer.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

Nope, there is identification system that is required at the border in that study and seeing that this is not done currently it will mean new infrastructure that needs to be built. So right there it doesn't solve the Irish Border problems at all.

There's also talk of manned border crossings, gates for goods vehicles and CCTV/ANPR systems. None of which are currently present. And that's just from the summary.

prawnsambo

milhous wrote: »

Sorry, do not want to derail current conversation just a quick question on a hard brexit as it stands at the minute. Will this just mean that things go back to customs check points etc. and we're still good to go up north?

Thinking of booking flights after March 29th from Belfast but may go through Dublin depending on answer.

I'd book through Dublin if it's all the same. The EU have said that they will implement a short term system for allowing flights to continue to transit from UK airports to the EU, but I would be concerned about delays at the very least.

CelticRambler

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not read it first. It's based on more than 200 crossing points and other crossings and requires little physical change.

I did read it (twice, in fact) as did many of us here, and it was comprehensively discussed on this forum last year. So-called "smart" technology is only as intelligent as those making legal transactions across the border allow it to be. The "Irish border" has never been a model of legal trade.

You may also remember that the UK governement recently passed legislation specifically committing to adding no new infrastructure along the border post Brexit; so "smart" can't work. Just one of the many instances of the UK going out of its way to make life more complicated for themselves. Nothing to do with the EU.

milhous

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd book through Dublin if it's all the same. The EU have said that they will implement a short term system for allowing flights to continue to transit from UK airports to the EU, but I would be concerned about delays at the very least.

Well it's half the price. But I suppose no point in Ruining a holiday over a few hundred quid

LeinsterDub

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

You either didn't read the it, don't understand the problem, are being disingenuous or all of the above

Gerry T

milhous wrote:

Well it's half the price. But I suppose no point in Ruining a holiday over a few hundred quid

Say the flight you book was to France but the airline intended the flight to go Belfast, France, Italy, Germany, Belfast. Obviously different passengers. This could be stopped by EU in April. Indications are UK flights cane go in/out but not all about ! Plus there's the insurance issue, even if the EU says ok in principal, because the UK won't be in the EU aviation industry, do who's regulating the UK ground maintenance, including de-icing teams. An insurance co could have a major issue here. Finally some EU airport may deem the UK flight as a risk due to regulation issue and wheel out the fire brigade, ambulance etc for UK originated flights. To me if it were 100 or 200e I'd stick with Dublin

prawnsambo

milhous wrote: »

Well it's half the price. But I suppose no point in Ruining a holiday over a few hundred quid

I suspect there's a reason it's half the price. And the reason is that people are not booking. Uncertainty about what will happen post March 29th would be top of the list. And this is just another brexit bonus. At least you have a choice. Think of people booking flights from London or Manchester and what they may be facing.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

I suspect there's a reason it's half the price. And the reason is that people are not booking. Uncertainty about what will happen post March 29th would be top of the list. And this is just another brexit bonus. At least you have a choice. Think of people booking flights from London or Manchester and what they may be facing.

If the EU really forsee the worst case scenario happening isn't it strange that French investors happily bought a controlling share of Gatwick airport?

milhous

prawnsambo wrote: »

I suspect there's a reason it's half the price. And the reason is that people are not booking. Uncertainty about what will happen post March 29th would be top of the list. And this is just another brexit bonus. At least you have a choice. Think of people booking flights from London or Manchester and what they may be facing.

Yeah I'll go through Dublin. But they always tend to be a lot cheaper. Dublin and Belfast are both an hour away so I generally check both. Just saw waiting times in Belfast at the minute on Twitter, have they already started extra security protocols or something?

milhous

milhous wrote: »

Yeah I'll go through Dublin. But they always tend to be a lot cheaper. Dublin and Belfast are both an hour away so I generally check both. Just saw waiting times in Belfast at the minute on Twitter, have they already started extra security protocols or something?

https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/belfastairport?lang=en

10000maniacs

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

If there is a hard Brexit or no backstop, that would mean cancelling the Good Friday Agreement in its current form. Which Irish party in their right mind would take on the political responsibility of doing that?

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the EU really forsee the worst case scenario happening isn't it strange that French investors happily bought a controlling share of Gatwick airport?

It just shows how much Sterling has dropped.

Seeing as how they are in the business they probably in it for the long haul.

Whatever happens after Brexit planes will still fly. It's just that UK carriers will have some disadvantages compared to EU and US carriers.

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

That report was highly speculative and theoretical. Trade experts who read it said it was full of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and extremely unlikely ever to work in real life.

The British right wing press and the hard Brexiteers seized on it though and claimed for a year afterwards that it was the solution to all the Irish border problems.

20silkcut

Strazdas wrote: »

That report was highly speculative and theoretical. Trade experts who read it said it was full of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and extremely unlikely ever to work in real life.

The British right wing press and the hard Brexiteers seized on it though and claimed for a year afterwards that it was the solution to all the Irish border problems.

If such solutions existed then shops and supermarkets wouldn’t need checkouts and we would see such technology in action everyday.