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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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20silkcut

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Problem is England and the British Empire spent a few hundred years fighting all those European countries
(Despite the English being part Saxon/viking/irish/Roman/Norman...) and sinking their ships to maintain trade supremacy

The English education system is still quite narrow minded and insular. This whoke brexit shambles can be seen partly as a product of that

I think brexit has highlighted this and it is shockingly embarrassing for the English education system.
In the last three years large swathes of the British public and political class have displayed a complete absence of understanding of the relationship between Britain and Ireland for the last 200 years.
There is a complete absence of understanding of who emerged as the strongest countries after world war 2 and how Britain was defeated and destroyed in all but name and her empire left in tatters.
There is a complete absence of understanding of international trade and political alliances and a complete ignorance of any benefits of EU membership which is staggering.
Despite the fact that Britain has prospered immensely since joining the EEC. Some of its towns and cities have doubled in size over the last 50 years and its infrastructure is second to none.
This has somehow been construed to be a negative however.

robinph

10000maniacs wrote: »

I see Varadkar is starting to get under the BBC's skin. They are putting subtitles on his recent interviews. I wonder is this just BBC making a little Brexit statement?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46751625/brexit-was-a-problem-created-in-the-uk-leo-varadkar

That is probably just so people don't have to turn the volume up. They do it with loads of videos whoever is speaking in whatever language.

10000maniacs

RobMc59 wrote: »

Just reading about Taoiseach Varadkar speaking to Merkel about the wording of the TM agreement-why is TM fiddling whilst he is so proactive?-Any chance of a leader swap?:)

I see Varadkar is starting to get under the BBC's skin. They are putting subtitles on his recent interviews. I wonder is this just BBC making a little Brexit statement?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46751625/brexit-was-a-problem-created-in-the-uk-leo-varadkar

mrbrianj

Bambi wrote: »

I think the 2008 crash shows we haven't had that good for that long, it's more an inevitable consequence of a ruling class that's out of touch with a sizable proportion of the population on a few key issues.

Thats a good point, but if you consider the ruling class as the real rulers - (ie the non politicans) and that things like 2008 may have enlightened them to the possible advantages of a devalued sterling and cheaper cost base in the uk.

a simplified example is their car industry, the 10% tariffs for future exports to the EU will be more than covered out by reduction in the pound and labour costs, whilst they may also get a sales bounce from how european made cars are now going to be more expensive to the UK market. Great news if you own the company and whip profits out of the UK.

Not so cool if you work on the factory floor and you are now eating chlorinated chicken or hormone beef for lunch and can no longer afford your 2 weeks in Benidorm as the euro is too expensive. Not cool at all if you work in one of the other industries or services that wont survive Brexit.

When you hear mention of taking back control, you have to think taking back control of who?

Leroy42

Michael Gove was out yesterday saying that tariffs on beef and sheep would be 40% in a No deal. Guess Gove has suddenly turned as well now.

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

Thus TM now needs to deal with her own parliament.

She needs to convince parliament, and the population, that a deal which nobody likes is absolutely the deal that was voted for based on a result of 34% voting one way, 33% voting another way and the other 33% not being arsed to get out of bed and vote.

She has delivered exactly what was asked for by the vote.

Leroy42

What can TM realistically be doing? She has a deal in her hand. IMO, it is actually quite a decent deal that she has landed. The problem is that it is neither as good as the deal they currently have (Remain) and delivers none of the benefits that a No Deal would (sovereignty etc) and she has allowed the narrative that a No deal is basically risk free to continue throughout her time as PM.

The only talks she should be having is with the HoC. EU is done, is was a long negotiation and both sides seem to have come to an agreement. The EU seem to feel that they have given everything that can be given and cannot move any further.

Thus TM now needs to deal with her own parliament.

RobMc59

Just reading about Taoiseach Varadkar speaking to Merkel about the wording of the TM agreement-why is TM fiddling whilst he is so proactive?-Any chance of a leader swap?:)

jochenstacker

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Yes, the disconnect continues, it ll be interesting to see the world post brexit/trump/rise of the right etc etc, I suspect it won't be rosey

Ok, may have misinterpreted your post.

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

What is the UK going to bring to the developing world that they don't already have

Leadership, apparently.

Good thread below about the wrongheaded notion the Brits have that everyone else is in need of their leadership, from the Empire to the Commonwealth to Europe and now on to the developing world.

Wait, I forgot EFTA, some of them think they should lead that.

https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1079767307155574789

Dyr

jochenstacker wrote: »

It may be human nature. When everyone has it too good for too long, some people get edgy, unhappy and aggressive.

I think the 2008 crash shows we haven't had that good for that long, it's more an inevitable consequence of a ruling class that's out of touch with a sizable proportion of the population on a few key issues.

Wanderer78

jochenstacker wrote:

Disconnect my eye. Going back even two generations in my family, there is two world wars and a time where electricity, telephone, central heating, cars and going to the shop for groceries where very far from the norm. Enough of those times eating meat was only reserved for the men of the house because they worked very hard. The rest made do with grains, potato and veg. What do we have today? People live a life that was completely unthinkable even 100 years ago. Yes, electricity, phones, radio, and cars existed. But there was only one of each in each town. The rest could not even dream of having these luxuries. So when people sit in their house with central heating, electricity, phone, internet, 50 inch 4k telly, latest smartphone, laptops, several cars in the drive, fridge full of food, several holidays a year, eating out and they complain that we are living in some sort of dystopian Hellscape, well, who is disconnected from reality now? Human history has been one long and bloody streak of misery, violence, war, oppression, hunger, disease and violence.

Yes, the disconnect continues, it ll be interesting to see the world post brexit/trump/rise of the right etc etc, I suspect it won't be rosey

jochenstacker

Wanderer78 wrote: »

'Everyone has had it too good for too long', the plot thickens, or maybe the disconnect continues!

Disconnect my eye.
Going back even two generations in my family, there is two world wars and a time where electricity, telephone, central heating, cars and going to the shop for groceries where very far from the norm.
Enough of those times eating meat was only reserved for the men of the house because they worked very hard.
The rest made do with grains, potato and veg.
What do we have today?
People live a life that was completely unthinkable even 100 years ago. Yes, electricity, phones, radio, and cars existed. But there was only one of each in each town.
The rest could not even dream of having these luxuries.
So when people sit in their house with central heating, electricity, phone, internet, 50 inch 4k telly, latest smartphone, laptops, several cars in the drive, fridge full of food, several holidays a year, eating out and they complain that we are living in some sort of dystopian Hellscape, well, who is disconnected from reality now?
Human history has been one long and bloody streak of misery, violence, war, oppression, hunger, disease and violence.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

I wonder what the age breakdown of these Tory party members is?

Sad that the majority of people under 45 who will have to deal with this s*** are being held hostage by the older generation

It was broken down on the previous page. In short, 124,000 members from a very narrow social strata. As you would expect. Although I was surprised as to how few they are.

PopePalpatine

Infini wrote: »

I'd be honest considering the ways he's acted and the damage him and his cohorts risk causing I wouldn't be suprised if he ends up with a permenant police escort or forced to live under armed guard for the rest of his days. There's being an idiot and then theres been a incompetent fool and theres plenty of suspicions hes got financial motivations to cause a car crash Brexit.

Honestly trying to blame Ireland for his governments failures isn't gonna fly with anyone except the willfully ignorant who refuse to accept the factual truth before them.

Something tells me JRM will be well-settled in some tax haven when the riots begin.

Zubeneschamali

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Ineos is targeting sales of around 25,000 units per year.

Nissan produce half a million cars a year in Sunderland.

For now.

CelticRambler

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I am a libertarian and love freedom. It is what pulled me into the Crypto in 2012 as most libertarians were looking for money that could not be debased by the state.

First of all, crypto: thanks for (finally) posting something with properly discussable points!

And now: your example of choosing cryptocurrency as a champion of libertarianism is quite pertinent to the wbole Brexit debate. While the concept looks great on paper - or at least it did ten years ago - the last two years have shown that the reality is very different, and the "money" was very easily debased by various shadowy agents around the globe, making the currency unstable and completely useless for ordinary life. In fact, it was only when the State (several states) started intervening, that it began to recover the stability and purpose for which it was originally designed.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

My love of freedom means the vote in my eyes must be respected and should also explain why I don't like the EU. Libertarians all hate the EU, it's against everything they hold dear.

An inherently contradictory attitude!

How can you (or anyone professing to love freedom) hate an organisation which has as its core philosophy Four Freedoms, and four freedoms that are indivisible and non-negotiable, as the British are finding out?

Secondly, if you love freedom, surely that requires you to support the position of the Remainers/Second Referendum/People's Vote, who want the result of the first vote confirmed, seeing as everyone now knows that the campaign was significantly interfered with by outside forces - the very opposite of national "free will" ?

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU is doomed to fail and is holding back many nations. The real future is the developing world and Ireland should join the UK in taking it to them.

You're probably right: the EU is doomed to fail - like the USSR and the Holy Roman Empire. Give it another hundred years or so and who knows what might happen. But as things stand at the moment, the UK is likely to break up much sooner than the EU, which is still on target to add new members in the coming decade.

As for the "developing world" - where is that again?

It's another Brexiteer fantasy - these imaginary nations that need the guiding light of British benevolence to achieve their full potential. In reality (there's that annoying spanner in the works again :P ) most of the "developing world" has already emerged from its colonial past and is now competing on level-ish terms for what's left of the earth's resources. In case you haven't noticed, the first thing they did was take many of the UK's manufacturing jobs; the next thing they did was sell their mineral rights to the Chinese.

What is the UK going to bring to the developing world that they don't already have, and what added value could Ireland contribute to a UK offer that wouldn't be so much more as part of an EU package?

nice_guy80

jochenstacker wrote: »

The UK reminds me of a sullen teenager living at home saying "this is a prison and you're opressing me, you're the worst parents ever, I'm moving out!"
And then continues to stay whilst complaining bitterly about unfair treatment and harassment.
And the same with this anti EU feeling amongst the usual cranks and malcontents. They keep bleating on about freedom and somehow being opressed. (a theme emerges)
And it can be said that the EU is the most advanced form of democracy and civilisation the world has ever seen.
I take it you're not family with the history of Europe over the last few thousand years. I'll give you a clue, war and bloodshed was the most favourite past time of nations.
You want freedom?
You're living it, buddy.

Problem is England and the British Empire spent a few hundred years fighting all those European countries
(Despite the English being part Saxon/viking/irish/Roman/Norman...) and sinking their ships to maintain trade supremacy

The English education system is still quite narrow minded and insular. This whoke brexit shambles can be seen partly as a product of that

lawred2

josip wrote: »

I think it would be an even worse feeling for him to be your representative and you hadn't voted for him.

I was more trying to put myself in the shoes of the sort of person who would vote for such a caricature villain but yeah hard going being those that voted for the other guy.

Wanderer78

jochenstacker wrote:

It may be human nature. When everyone has it too good for too long, some people get edgy, unhappy and aggressive. Maybe they need chaos and uncertainty to thrive. This is evident on both sides, either lefties throwing stones and Molotov cocktails or right-wing skinhead assholes. And of course the pseudo "intellectuals" firing them on and trolling on the internet. One can only hope that there are enough sensible people left (at least in Europe) who know that just because some people love nothing more than waving their banner on a burning barricade, doesn't mean they have a plan or idea beyond chaos.

'Everyone has had it too good for too long', the plot thickens, or maybe the disconnect continues!

bilston

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If required ?

1,000 won't be enough if there is a hard border.

Last time there was a hard border 3,000 people died.

In addition to a much bigger police force, who had guns and armoured cars, there were also 27,000 troops.

See above.

“We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.”
- who pays the rough men ?

You probably know that Ayn Rand took social security. And you probably expect to benefit at the expense of the have-nots. Brexit means austerity will continue for years for those who don't have decent jobs or pensions.

The British Army is a lot smaller now that is was during the Troubles. There won't be 20,000 troops to send to NI. Although I seriously doubt there would be a return to violence on that scale anyway.

bilston

igCorcaigh wrote: »

"Most Tory members would choose no deal over May's Brexit plan"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/04/most-tory-members-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan

"Survey also finds that in two-option poll, 76% would choose no deal over remain"

I wonder what the age breakdown of these Tory party members is?

Sad that the majority of people under 45 who will have to deal with this s*** are being held hostage by the older generation

jochenstacker

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You could have spent a lot of time arguing on political forums on the Internet with “libertarians” / “anarcho - capitalists” during the last economic crash if you had little to do with your time. The essential success of political centerism in the western world for 30 years has produced radical thinking on the edges. That radicalism craves the kind of tumultuous political / economic events we have seen the past decade and essentially cheers it on. It’s the faux thinking man’s politics of anger, a way of pretending your MAGA cap has a political philosophy behind it.

It may be human nature. When everyone has it too good for too long, some people get edgy, unhappy and aggressive. Maybe they need chaos and uncertainty to thrive.
This is evident on both sides, either lefties throwing stones and Molotov cocktails or right-wing skinhead assholes. And of course the pseudo "intellectuals" firing them on and trolling on the internet.
One can only hope that there are enough sensible people left (at least in Europe) who know that just because some people love nothing more than waving their banner on a burning barricade, doesn't mean they have a plan or idea beyond chaos.

In short:
Just because you're angry and shout very loud, doesn't make you right.

First Up

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Seriously , if cars need too many imported parts then they lose the Made in UK status and good look with the trade deals.

My point is that trade deals don't matter if you have nothing to trade.

The motor car industry is in effect the assembly of parts made elsewhere. Tariffs won't strangle it but delays at ports will.

LuckyLloyd

You could have spent a lot of time arguing on political forums on the Internet with “libertarians” / “anarcho - capitalists” during the last economic crash if you had little to do with your time. The essential success of political centerism in the western world for 30 years has produced radical thinking on the edges. That radicalism craves the kind of tumultuous political / economic events we have seen the past decade and essentially cheers it on. It’s the faux thinking man’s politics of anger, a way of pretending your MAGA cap has a political philosophy behind it.

jochenstacker

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I am a libertarian and love freedom. It is what pulled me into the Crypto in 2012 as most libertarians were looking for money that could not be debased by the state.
My love of freedom means the vote in my eyes must be respected and should also explain why I don't like the EU. Libertarians all hate the EU, it's against everything they hold dear.

The EU is doomed to fail and is holding back many nations. The real future is the developing world and Ireland should join the UK in taking it to them.

I understand it would not be wise for Ireland to leave the EU right now but its collapse would mean we can remain friends with our neighbours and say at least we tried and hung in there with them...but now we need to head off and make some real cash.

The UK reminds me of a sullen teenager living at home saying "this is a prison and you're opressing me, you're the worst parents ever, I'm moving out!"
And then continues to stay whilst complaining bitterly about unfair treatment and harassment.
And the same with this anti EU feeling amongst the usual cranks and malcontents. They keep bleating on about freedom and somehow being opressed. (a theme emerges)
And it can be said that the EU is the most advanced form of democracy and civilisation the world has ever seen.
I take it you're not family with the history of Europe over the last few thousand years. I'll give you a clue, war and bloodshed was the most favourite past time of nations.
You want freedom?
You're living it, buddy.

Peregrinus

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I still can't see parliament allowing that to happen. At least not without revoking or extending A50 first.

Parliament can't extend A50. It can merely ask the government to ask the EU to agree to an extension. It's no certain that the EU would agree. The wouldn't agree just for the pleasure of prolonging the agony; there would have to be good reason to think that granting the extension would break the logjam in some way. "We can't make up our minds!" is not a reason for granting an extension.

Parliament can revoke A50 - or, at least, it can direct the government to revoke it. (Whether the government would comply, and what constituational crisis might ensue if it didn't, are not the EU's problem). But the revocation would have to be an unequivocal termination of the Brexit process; it couldn't be a revocation for the purposes of having a bit of a think about it, or another referendum. If they tried to do that the EU could try to reject the revocation it as invalid, and the whole dispute would end up back in the ECJ.

igCorcaigh

fergus1001 wrote: »

I really think no deal is what is coming

I still can't see parliament allowing that to happen. At least not without revoking or extending A50 first.

fergus1001

igCorcaigh wrote:

May really needs Labour MPs to rebel

I really think no deal is what is coming

Theresa May has no time and no support to try anything else

get ready for the recession everyone

Peregrinus

igCorcaigh wrote: »

"Most Tory members would choose no deal over May's Brexit plan"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/04/most-tory-members-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan

"Survey also finds that in two-option poll, 76% would choose no deal over remain"

"Tory members" are a small, declining and unrepresentative group, though. Party membership stood at 124,000 in March 2018 - down from 134,000 in 2013 and 177,000 in 2010. (And 3 milliion in the 1950s!) The Tory party is now smaller than the SNP, which has 125,500 members (and much smaller than Labour, with 540,000 members).

But it's not just that the Tory party is small; it's also very unrepresentative. The party membership is 71% male, 86% drawn from the ABC1 social class and 97% white. They are drawn disproportionately from the south of England, excluding London, and they have an average age of 57. Only 5% of them belong to a trade union; fewer than the 6% who belong to Saga, the organisation that sells holidays, insurance, etc to the over-50s.

In short, what Tory party members would choose may not be all that relevant. What matters is what Parliament would choose.