FrancieBrady wrote: » Problem for Rees Mogg, Farage etc is that leaving will no longer be an abstract proposition.Essentially, people are not stupid, they can clearly see through the bull**** to the real effects. I fail to see any upside for the UK so far in this Leave project.
Tell me how wrote: » But that is the central point in all this. A powerful core group with a targeted approach can sway the direction of a country. You put Rees-Mogg in to a room speaking about the benefits of Brexit. The audience is full of right wingers (because that's who invited him) and they have been instructed to cheer loudly. That night the media covers it in a positive manner and speaks of rising interest. The following day, the papers carry a similar tone. What the person on the stage actually has said is incidental to a large degree. This is how Brexit evolved.
Zubeneschamali wrote: » I think these things would make it less likely that Ireland or Poland or Italy or Denmark would actually leave, not more likely. Rees-Mogg, seriously, could anyone be a better model for a stereotypical obnoxious British bad guy? It's as if he escaped from a Harry Potter movie.
trellheim wrote: » As for DD I am in no way a Brexiteer in fact I think it is horrendous. He represents a very large constituency and blank dismissals of the premises are perhaps . From the brexiteer point of view - as I said - most of what is in that statement makes sense and it should be read in that light. Yes he's writing in the Torygraph and playing to many of the faithful but so what.
Tell me how wrote: » The UK are leaving the EU.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Farage has been doing the 'tour' (including to ireland) for years now. No effect really. There will always be anti EU sentiment, but I think seeing what just the process of leaving does, that common sense will win out for a good few years yet. And ultimately, imo the EU will be a better place after this process. It's faults have been magnified and will be addressed I think. I also think it will consolidate it's position if the UK leaves with it's damaging opt-outs and vetos and sterling.
Tell me how wrote: » Yes, but in future, any country considering leaving will have the following. The UK media loudly extolling the benefits of sovereignty and trying to influence their media. Nigel Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg attending events as guest speakers either saying how well the UK is doing, or blaming the EU for not being reasonable (thus enforcing ideals as to how bad they are). The UK suggesting that should they leave, the UK market of 70M people will likely be willing to create trade deals. All it needs to go down this dark path is a right wing government to promise a referendum on EU membership and then the dark forces will kick in. I hope I'm wrong but the hardest one to leave is the first one.
trellheim wrote: » Yes he's writing in the Torygraph and playing to many of the faithful but so what.
Tell me how wrote: » Yes, but in future, any country considering leaving will have the following. The UK media loudly extolling the benefits of sovereignty and trying to influence their media. Nigel Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg attending events as guest speakers either saying how well the UK is doing, or blaming the EU for not being reasonable (thus enforcing ideals as to how bad they are).
Professor Moriarty wrote: » It's possible but I would have thought the opposite. Any government looking at a relatively robust economy and society, like the UK, splintering and self-harming as a result of Brexit, will think twice before going down the same path.
Tell me how wrote: » However, the UK leaving the EU (irrespective of what happens to it when it is gone) is going to be damaging to the EU and I fear will increase the likelihood that others too will leave.
Westminster cannot extend A50, they can only ask the 27 to extend it. I don't think there is time now to get all 27 to agree. If the WA is voted down, the options are No Deal or withdraw A50.
trellheim wrote: » David Davis is not wrong in many ways - he is largely correct in most of that statement. It is a mistake to dismiss DD . It should be remembered he got the EU Maastricht treaty through the Commons for John Major back in the 90s . It's also a trap to fall into to regard the UK as a somewhat 'special' child who just can't see that what they are doing is complete self-harm, as it sets up a polar opposites conversation and a screaming match where no-one is listening. ( and oh look thats exactly what is happening ). That said I think there is little chance of anything but a vote on TM Deal ( and if its rejected - most likely will be then A50 extension vote and if thats voted down and it very likely will be then its no deal )
"We are building a detailed understanding of how the withdrawal from the EU will affect domestic policies, to seize opportunities and ensure a smooth process of exit." - David Davis to House of Commons, 5 September 2016
"We currently have in place an assessment of 51 sectors of the economy. "I should mention that we are also doing that assessment in a way that will throw up whether something has an impact on the individual nations of the United Kingdom, as well as on the UK as a whole." - David Davis to House of Commons, 20 October 2016
In a sometimes gruelling appearance before the Brexit select committee Davis said there had been “no systematic impact assessment” of leaving the EU, having talked previously about such apparent studies existing “in excruciating detail”. Davis insisted he had been misunderstood, saying the only work undertaken comprised broad surveys of various parts of the economy, none of which included any forecasts of how Brexit might affect them.
FrancieBrady wrote: » I fail to see what is attractive about 'leaving' after the last few years. The process alone has severely damaged the country. Any damage to Ireland or the rest of the EU is eminently repairable and recoverable. It doesn't show any signs of being the same for the UK. Brexit, if it happens is not going to cure their root issues.
Leroy42 wrote: » no answer to how they deal with a No deal
Tell me how wrote: » And the Brexiteers feel that the EU is on the brink of collapse. Personally, I think the EU is strong and the UK is shooting itself in the foot. It has increased the likelihood of the North of Ireland and Scotland separating from the rest of the UK due in part to the England centric focus on how they are managing leaving. However, the UK leaving the EU (irrespective of what happens to it when it is gone) is going to be damaging to the EU and I fear will increase the likelihood that others too will leave.
trellheim wrote: » That said I think there is little chance of anything but a vote on TM Deal ( and if its rejected - most likely will be then A50 extension vote and if thats voted down and it very likely will be then its no deal )
FrancieBrady wrote: » Second referendum, another election, withdrawal of Article 50...makes no difference, I think the concept of a 'UK' is in decline and will sunder, regardless. Brexit is only a symptom of the malaise affecting society of our nearest neighbour.
Thomas_IV wrote: » I see it that way too. The UK is doomed by that Brexit folly brought onto herself by lying politicians who managed to delude 52% of the electorate. Some of them might have waken up and realised that they have been led up the garden path, but the chances to make a u-turn by getting a BrexitRef2 are melting away.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Are you English, because that is a particularly arrogant English view in my opinion. There are any number of scenarios that will bring about another Scottish Indy Ref and a first Border poll. The fact is for above English that we are perilously close to both. It wasn't me who claimed Corbyn would be PM (although I don't see why that couldn't happen) but it was me that said 2 years ago and since, that we are really watching a 20 year break up of the UK. History will look back and see these shennanigans as one of the symptoms of that, as was the first Scottish Ref.
LuckyLloyd wrote: » David Davies with the kind of high level nonsense that will be lapped up and lauded by the Brexit base in today's Telegraph:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/02/preparing-no-deal-properly-will-get-good-brexit-democracy-demands/ Bolded emphasis is mine, and serve to highlight the most dangerous lies on offer here. What 'trade facilitation agreement' is he referencing? Oh yeah. Those temporary unilateral measures recently set out by the EU. I am left - as I so consistently find with self proclaimed 'proud Brexiteers - choosing between ignorance or grand deception as descriptors for this piece. He is lying or ignorant of the significance of the ECJ ruling on the UK's unilateral right to rescind A50. And he is lying or confused on the Canda+++ option that apparently has been "offered". As the excellent Sir Ivan Rogers speech from before Christmas noted, beware those charlatans brandishing deals with plusses as fait accomplis. This is incredibly irresponsible and dangerous nonsense - and it is only the beginning of a new round of unseemly Westminster infighting as the clock ticks down towards self inflicted economic Armageddon.
CelticRambler wrote: » How do you reconcile the notion that the EU is "chuckling smugly" when its senior politicians have said (on and off the record) that the Brexit and the current WA is a lose-lose state of affairs? Hardly the kind of thing to chuckle over. And is there any point in using the adjective "accidental" now, when the WA is on the table waiting to be approved by the UK; and expecting it to be defeated, the EU is upactivating previously-made preparations for a no-deal Brexit?Your posts echo so many of Theresa May's speeches (including various public and parliamentary addresses as recently as December) where she talks about vague ambitions for the future. Brexit, for the Brexiteers, seems to be something of a pleasant dream, in which they imagine themselves sleepwalking naked around the village green, but from which they expect to wake up very soon, to find they're safe in their comfy bed, still in their pyjamas. Meanwhile, the EU is watching a sad old lady wandering aimlessly and undressed around the high street, telling people that she used to be a famous actress once, and wondering what to do with her ...
We are told that another decisive moment looms, in the form of the forthcoming Commons vote on the proposed Withdrawal Agreement. Of course, we have been here before. We have seen many supposedly decisive moments since the 2016 referendum: triggering Article 50, passing the EU Withdrawal Act, the December meaningful vote that never was, to name but a few. Before we whip ourselves into another frenzy, perhaps it is time to take stock? I have always said that the EU would push and push until finally we reach a resolution at the eleventh hour. Recent events only reinforce my analysis. Indeed, anybody who really understands how negotiations work understands that time is our friend. We know that the EU is worried about the loss of the £39 billion “divorce” payment if there is no deal. EU Budget Commissioner Gunther Oettinger has said that the remaining 27 member states will face a hefty bill if the UK does not pay. We also know that the UK’s no deal preparations are well advanced. A senior civil servant, writing in The Telegraph last week, said the Government is failing to be frank about the degree of preparation. So this is the moment to be hard-nosed about these issues. The more we prepare to leave the EU without a deal, the more likely a good deal becomes. But getting there means ignoring the distractions, such as the briefings that Continuity Remain elements will seek to extend Article 50 or force a second referendum. It is not going to happen without a General Election. Instead, Tory MPs must remain committed to delivering the referendum result, as repeated in our manifesto, which pledged to leave the Customs Union and the Single Market and which said that no deal is better than a bad deal. To do otherwise would frankly throw our democracy’s credibility into chaos. And let’s be clear: the Withdrawal Agreement does not respect the referendum result. That is why the meaningful vote had to be delayed and one wonders if even the January vote will go ahead. Attempts to frighten MPs into supporting it are unlikely to work, because voting down this substandard deal will not result in no Brexit. How could it? There is no mechanism for that to happen. The UK will leave the EU on 29 March. That is nailed down in primary legislation and international treaty commitments. There is no wriggle room. Well informed colleagues also know there is an alternative. Both Donald Tusk and Michel Barnier have offered the UK a Canada+++ option. A Northern Ireland backstop is not necessary or wanted. International trade experts such as Shanker Singham advocate using tried and trusted techniques and procedures so that rules of origin and customs checks are conducted away from the Northern Ireland border, making a hard border unnecessary. The EU, however, will not commit to a free trade deal until we have left and that is fair enough. So we should press for early talks after March 29 with a generous offer based on tariff-free trade with few barriers. In the meantime, the Government is right to finally be vigorously preparing for a managed WTO Brexit, which holds far less risk than the various fear campaigns have tried to suggest.Be under no illusions. Leaving without a Withdrawal Agreement is not the same as leaving without agreements. There will be several deals in place, including membership of the Common Transit Convention and the WTO, a trade facilitation agreement, and others as set out recently by the EU. There is a shared interest in a good flow of traffic through our ports, and action is being taken to ensure trade continues sensibly. I appreciate we all want to get Brexit done to move on, but if we get it wrong, we are stuck with what is agreed and a bad deal will lead to more division and uncertainty. Therefore, it is crucial that we get it right whenever the moment of reckoning comes – be it mid-January or later. What this country needs now is direction and leadership. When the British people see there is hope and a path to a brighter future, they will urge our leaders to finish the job. We must stop being side-tracked by those who were never reconciled to Brexit, prepare for no deal in the sure knowledge it makes a good deal more likely, and seize the prize of a global future for the UK.
We voted to LEAVE and TAKE BACK CONTROL: not remain shackled to the EU. A managed No Deal ie a clean break Brexit is what we voted for and what the CON Party is duty bound to deliver.
cryptocurrency wrote: » Scotland had their referendum and they will have to wait a bit longer before another. It was well beaten and would still lose. Ireland can't afford the north, it would bankrupt them and most are not into it anyway. Once Europe starts to properly melt most will count their blessings the UK left. Aren't you the poster who claimed Corbyn would be PM? Never going to happen. He is a national security threat. You need to learn a few things first. Corbyn will never happen, its just silly talk. He is a useful idiot in opposition for now as he is no threat to power.
cryptocurrency wrote: » If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.
