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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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First Up

Hermy wrote:

Never mind how unpalatable you think they might be, if you know of convincing reasons why the UK should leave the EU, for the benefit of the debate please post them!

Most of the pro Brexit contributions here are the intellectual equivalent of ringing someone's doorbell and running away.

Don't answer.

Hermy

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Never mind how unpalatable you think they might be, if you know of convincing reasons why the UK should leave the EU, for the benefit of the debate please post them!

ambro25

I think it's useful to contrast cryptocurrency's parroted dogma, with a bit of real-world reality, to demonstrate the extent of the disconnect (and the scale of the disillusionment to inevitably follow) here.

Take the old "services and financial services" comment, basically the EU(27) needs the City because reasons, not in so many words.

This is the reality as of 20 December 2018, which I can verify independently on the ground (and have done in t'Brexit threads for the last 10 months since Brexoding here).

No experts, opinions, unicorns, Project this-or-the other required or involved whatsoever: just looking at new (UK) companies' name plates popping up in building entrances. Which media like Bloomberg and others reports upon, because it's happening, and it's causally linked to Brexit so it's newsworthy.

And it's the exact same story for the insurance sector (much under-represented in reports and articles about Brexoding City financial services, but no less important in value, revenues, tax-take and jobs). I'm not bothering with extending to Frankfurt, to Paris or to Dublin: last I heard, all of them are, each, getting more relocated financial service activity than Luxembourg. Barcelona isn't trailing by far.

Nothing unknown to regular readers and contributors, of course. But whenever idealists like cryptocurrency surface, I genuinely believe that the most appropriate (and polite) approach after a first dogmatic post should be just that: we've all heard the dogma, now this is the reality, how do you propose to deal with it practically?

Any more dogma, dog whistling or whattaboutery in reply, rather than a post genuinely engaging the debate with arguments on the merits, and it's straight to the ignore list. Save server storage and bandwidth, don't engage with types impervious to fact-based reasoning.

fash

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Ladbrokes has May replaced before end of March as 1/2 which is great news if they are on the money. Boris to the rescue with Mogg moved into cabinet. I personally would prefer Davis or Rabb which would be amazing comebacks after the charade they went through as brexit secretary(totally ignored by Brussels because they were secretly dealing with Oillie Robbins)..imagine Juncker and COs face when they suddenly have to deal with the lads they were giving the run around too and they are hard brexiteers. Could be good times.

I am still trying to work out to what extent you've drunk the Brexit cool-aid: do you agree that (whatever you think of their politics), Raab and Davis are both quite obviously dim? And that Davis is also quite obviously exceptionally lazy?
Do you also accept that Johnson (aside from the fact that he seems to have chosen his Brexit position based solely on perceived tactical advantage) is simply a "white elephant" - being charitable "big idea but no details" - type of person ( e g. see everything he did as London mayor, Boris buses, the garden bridge, airport in the Thames etc.).

In which case, how could you think that they would achieve anything?

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Scotland had their referendum and they will have to wait a bit longer before another. It was well beaten and would still lose.

Ireland can't afford the north, it would bankrupt them and most are not into it anyway.

Once Europe starts to properly melt most will count their blessings the UK left.

Aren't you the poster who claimed Corbyn would be PM? Never going to happen. He is a national security threat. You need to learn a few things first.

Corbyn will never happen, its just silly talk. He is a useful idiot in opposition for now as he is no threat to power.

Are you English, because that is a particularly arrogant English view in my opinion.
There are any number of scenarios that will bring about another Scottish Indy Ref and a first Border poll.

The fact is for above English that we are perilously close to both.
It wasn't me who claimed Corbyn would be PM (although I don't see why that couldn't happen) but it was me that said 2 years ago and since, that we are really watching a 20 year break up of the UK.
History will look back and see these shennanigans as one of the symptoms of that, as was the first Scottish Ref.

LuckyLloyd

EdgeCase wrote: »

The problem is that they don’t listen to expert opinions that contradict dogma. She’s basically just going to get ignored, just as everyone else who has pointed these facts out ad nausium over the past couple of years.

I would be very surprised if there’s a sudden shift to expert opinion being given the hearing it ought to be getting.

Maybe there will be more realistic discussion but given the track record to date, I don’t hold out much hope.

I think the statements that are going to be wild in relation to the legal parameters are the ‘we can extend article 50 for a year to achieve managed No Deal’ or ‘we can revoke Article 50 and restart the negotiatons’ type ideas. We had some opinion pieces to such effect in the Telegraph during December.

The legal perameters are pretty straightforward and easy to understand here, but that never stopped a Brexiteer before!

Anthracite

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

Again, a very interesting example of an absolutely fact-free post. If you have an argument, we are all on tenterhooks waiting to hear it.

Leroy42

Cyrpto, you obviously dislike the EU and see the UK leaving as the right move.

But given the make up of the world can you not see that consolidation is the way to go? The USA and China are the two big centres and the EU is an attempt to leverage the power of the combined to level the playing field.

Even if you are right in your position that the EU will collapse, I fail to see how the UK leaving is of an advantage, if anything it will speed up the break up. But what then? It is clear that the UK cannot go it alone. They could not get any say in the EU, have seemingly been bullied upon trying to leave and so on what basis do you think that them going it alone is beneficial?

Even if we accept the premise of your position, that the EU is bad, what is the alternative that you propose? It cannot be the the UK go it alone, even the UK agree that the EEC was a good idea. What they do not like is the continued integration. But they seem to have taken the nuclear option of going backwards in order to make a point.

But lets go along with the premise that the EU will break up. What advantage does leaving now give the UK? And why, if the EU is about to break up, why are countries such as Japan and Canada agreeing to new trade deals with them?

Anthracite

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There are weapons and there are weapons and there are services and there are financial products. There are even financial weapon products.

It is all very complex. Even google doesn't have the details handy.

The likelihood that, should these imaginary 'financial product weapons' exist, the UK would shoot themselves in the foot with them as they have with Brexit. The country is in an absolute shambles, with dreadful political leadership and a populace so riven with division that they are likely to crash out in a spectacular cock-up that will set them back 40 years.

ancapailldorcha

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

If you post like this again, you will be banned from this forum. No more trolling please.

EdgeCase

Peregrinus wrote: »

Note that the Twitter thread is from Eleanor Sharpston, a British QC who has been an Advocate General at the Court of Justice of the EU since 2006. So she writes on this stuff with some authority.

The problem is that they don’t listen to expert opinions that contradict dogma. She’s basically just going to get ignored, just as everyone else who has pointed these facts out ad nausium over the past couple of years.

I would be very surprised if there’s a sudden shift to expert opinion being given the hearing it ought to be getting.

Maybe there will be more realistic discussion but given the track record to date, I don’t hold out much hope.

Enzokk

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Just a way of saving face for the EU when in reality any legal detail on backstop being temp means they did renegotiate

So you are saying that the EU will concede that the backstop will only last until a deal is made that takes it place? That is what the EU has been saying all this time though. If however there is a time limit to the backstop in the next 2 weeks then you are right, if not then basically you are just full of hot air.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

UK accounts for 1/5th of German car exports. That is just a start. Stop trying to compare the UK to Turkey.

Is that by value or volume?

First Up

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Turkey can make suggestions but has to follow EU rules on the stuff covered by their CU.

Yes, that's a pretty logical and obvious part of being in a Customs Union.

Christy42

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Midlife wrote: »

This is a silly argument destined to go nowhere.

Your take on it seems to be that the both the EU imports (weapons and services) and exports (cars from Germany) from and to the UK are a source of strength at the negotiating table for the UK and somehow both conversly weaknesses for the EU. But obviously a similar loss of both imports and markets will not harm the UK.

This makes no sense.

It seems to be honest that you're committed in the belief that the EU is crashing down any minute now and the Uk is holding all the cards. When Boris comes back, he'll sort it all out. I don't think this is based on much other than hope and belief. To be honest though, that's as much as a lot of economists go on.

Anyway, we'll know who was right in a few years.

It's been one massive cock up though, and you can't deny that. The Uk entered negotiations with no mandate, plan or leverage and are now pissed of with what they got.

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

Ah the old I can't explain the arguments but trust me they are really good line. Shockingly unlikely to go down well on a discussion forum.

People have been talking about the break up of the EU for years. Indeed they kept saying the splits would be obvious over Brexit. Instead all the infighting has been in the United Kingdom.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not sure that something which has cost thousands their lives is comedy stuff and I for one am curious as to why they are crossing all those European countries to get to the UK?

Relatively few of them are doing this. As is typical, the media in the UK focus on asylum seekers coming to the UK, but that doesn't mean that all, or even most, asylum seekers are coming to the UK. The ones that aren't are not noticed by the UK media, but they're there all the same.

RobMc59 wrote: »

The latest suggestion by sajid javid that the migrants could be dropped off at any safe port and mentioned French and other ports is controversial but would spread the load perhaps.

No. Spreading the load would involve more asylum applications being handled by the UK, not less. The UK has 12.7% of the EU population, but only handles 4.8% of asylum applications made in the EU (as of 2017; the 2018 figures aren't out yet).

Peregrinus

black forest wrote: »

In the meantime others are putting together a quite simple evaluation of the current situation . . .

Note that the Twitter thread is from Eleanor Sharpston, a British QC who has been an Advocate General at the Court of Justice of the EU since 2006. So she writes on this stuff with some authority.

black forest

In the meantime others are putting together a quite simple evaluation of the current situation:

https://twitter.com/akulith/status/1080460889839595522

If this is not bringing clarity to some people nothing will.

sKeith

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Scotland had their referendum and they will have to wait a bit longer before another. It was well beaten and would still lose.

It was their democratic right to call another referendum anytime after the brexit vote results came in. Scotland wanted then to stay within the EU.
Scotland remaining in the UK was won because they wanted to stay within the EU and independence at the time threatened possible years of hard times before regaining EU membership. They still want to remain in the EU.
Scotland outside the EU no longer has that fear, so they will ask and be granted another referendum whenever they seek it, would you hold them in a union against their will? (UK & EU) They have not called such a referendum yet because the outcome of the current situation is still in flux, and if the UK was to remain, then scotland would remain with it. If UK was to leave the EU, then I believe Scotland would take every opurtunuty to regain access to EU, even if that route was with independence from the UK.

bobmalooka

SNIP. No more quips please.

Peregrinus

cryptocurrency wrote: »

No deal is a great deal.

For reasons which have been well-rehearsed in public discourse, "no deal" would represent an economic disaster and a political crisis for the UK. You can argue about how big a disaster and how much of a crisis, but anyone who asserts that it would be a "great deal" is either delusional or dishonest.

cryptocurrency

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are you living in some parallel universe? Parliament will dissolve before it allows a no deal.
No deal is perfect for those who want the UK to break up. I could see it happen inside 10 years after a No Deal scenario.

Scotland had their referendum and they will have to wait a bit longer before another. It was well beaten and would still lose.

Ireland can't afford the north, it would bankrupt them and most are not into it anyway.

Once Europe starts to properly melt most will count their blessings the UK left.

Aren't you the poster who claimed Corbyn would be PM? Never going to happen. He is a national security threat. You need to learn a few things first.

Corbyn will never happen, its just silly talk. He is a useful idiot in opposition for now as he is no threat to power.

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

No deal is a great deal.

UK will not break up. In fact, when the remainers look like complete hysterical babies two years from now when the collapse of the economy doesn't happen that they spent years going on about, most will never get taken seriously again. They need to be reminded each and every time they even attempt to open their mouths.

Just point and laugh at them every time they try to talk.

Blair, Clegg, Geldoff, and the rest..never on TV again. Gonna be great.

Are you living in some parallel universe? Parliament will dissolve before it allows a no deal.
No deal is perfect for those who want the UK to break up. I could see it happen inside 10 years after a No Deal scenario.

cryptocurrency

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have already been taught the lesson. Have your stuff together before coming to the negotiating table.
They got owned, basically, because the UK is basically slowly breaking up. The centre cannot hold.

The choice they have is a bad deal or No Deal. :rolleyes:

No deal is a great deal.

UK will not break up. In fact, when the remainers look like complete hysterical babies two years from now when the collapse of the economy doesn't happen that they spent years going on about, most will never get taken seriously again. They need to be reminded each and every time they even attempt to open their mouths.

Just point and laugh at them every time they try to talk.

Blair, Clegg, Geldoff, and the rest..never on TV again. Gonna be great.

Peregrinus

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

May becomes a hero by making herself and her country look like ridiculous, incompetent, self-destructive fantasists?

That can only be true if Brexiters really, really hate the UK.

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

This arrogance is what the problem is.

Can you list the EU nations. Read them, Read them twice. Then add the fact that the Eastern, Southern Med and northern European all have different ideas and values. This hasn't even started yet.

Who is going to teach the UK this lesson? The countries that matter are not on the list.

UK relations in the Anglosphere is far more important and influential. Both London and Washington know full well that Australia is a far more important strategic partner to them than the French. You couldn't even compare the two.

They have already been taught the lesson. Have your stuff together before coming to the negotiating table.
They got owned, basically, because the UK is basically slowly breaking up. The centre cannot hold.

The choice they have is a bad deal or No Deal. :rolleyes:

Midlife

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

Hang on. So you're saying THIS IS THE PLAN!!

Wow.

I agree btw on not going back. Would tear the country in two.

cryptocurrency

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is a saying 'pride comes before a fall' and it is very apt here. The UK has put it's hand up and is being taught a lesson about it's place in the world. A lesson it really didn't need to learn, it could've sat quietly at the back of the class and kept cogging the homework.

This arrogance is what the problem is.

Can you list the EU nations. Read them, Read them twice. Then add the fact that the Eastern, Southern Med and northern European all have different ideas and values. This hasn't even started yet.

Who is going to teach the UK this lesson? The countries that matter are not on the list.

UK relations in the Anglosphere is far more important and influential. Both London and Washington know full well that Australia is a far more important strategic partner to them than the French. You couldn't even compare the two.

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

There is a saying 'pride comes before a fall' and it is very apt here. The UK has put it's hand up and is being taught a lesson about it's place in the world. A lesson it really didn't need to learn, it could've sat quietly at the back of the class and kept cogging the homework.

cryptocurrency

Midlife wrote: »

This is a silly argument destined to go nowhere.

Your take on it seems to be that the both the EU imports (weapons and services) and exports (cars from Germany) from and to the UK are a source of strength at the negotiating table for the UK and somehow both conversly weaknesses for the EU. But obviously a similar loss of both imports and markets will not harm the UK.

This makes no sense.

It seems to be honest that you're committed in the belief that the EU is crashing down any minute now and the Uk is holding all the cards. When Boris comes back, he'll sort it all out. I don't think this is based on much other than hope and belief. To be honest though, that's as much as a lot of economists go on.

Anyway, we'll know who was right in a few years.

It's been one massive cock up though, and you can't deny that. The Uk entered negotiations with no mandate, plan or leverage and are now pissed of with what they got.

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

Peregrinus

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU will keep sticking to the party line even as the flames are all around them. Reminds me of the film Downfall.

It is quite amazing with all the obvious problems now and coming down the line that people are buying the EU lines.

This is an incredibly ironic post.