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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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bilston

lawred2 wrote: »

you are basing your 'point' on a fallacy

The votes in Scotland and NI were not close. Not even remotely close. It wasn't a 'slight variation'.

Ignore reality all you want and paint yourself an alternate one - doesn't make reality any less the reality that it is..

There was an opinion poll in May which showed that 69% of people in NI would vote Remain if given another chance.

Now that has to account for a hell of Unionists who have realised the DUP's stance is an absolute economic disaster for NI and has done more to destroy the Union in a single referendum campaign than the IRA managed in 30 odd years.

Of course Leavers will say it's one opinion poll, and fair enough, but it would have to be horrendously wrong if there hasn't been a big rise in support for Remain in NI.

Water John

I think my resolution for the New Year is not answer rubbish, (fake facts).

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

the DUP's stance is an absolute economic disaster for NI and has done more to destroy the Union in a single referendum campaign than the IRA managed in 30 odd years.

It still surprises me that they don't see this. It couldn't be more obvious. Are they so virulently against the GFA that they will risk everything to try and bring it to an end. Because I can see no other reason than that or rank stupidity.

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

It still surprises me that they don't see this. It couldn't be more obvious. Are they so virulently against the GFA that they will risk everything to try and bring it to an end. Because I can see no other reason than that or rank stupidity.

It's confidence that Unionists will swallow whatever happens and continue to vote DUP regardless. The electoral track record in NI suggests that this is not stupidity but rather a solid calculation.

downcow

If you believe the economists (which I don’t) the roi is destined to even more financial difficulties than the UK after 29 March

downcow

downcow wrote: »

If you believe the economists (which I don’t) the roi is destined to even more financial difficulties than the UK after 29 March

In fact if you want to follow many on here who feel it is simply about economics then roi should leave ASAP if UK goes

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

If you believe the economists (which I don’t) the roi is destined to even more financial difficulties than the UK after 29 March

Which economists are predicting a bigger hit to Ireland than the UK?

prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

If you believe the economists (which I don’t) the roi is destined to even more financial difficulties than the UK after 29 March

Yeah. Well you might find one economist saying that. Most saying not as bad as the UK but still bad enough. But we knew that before it started. Funny how we were more concerned how it would affect our friends and family up north rather than our own pockets.

bilston

downcow wrote: »

If you believe the economists (which I don’t) the roi is destined to even more financial difficulties than the UK after 29 March

If you don't believe the qualified economists, who do you listen to when trying to make an informed choice?

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

In fact if you want to follow many on here who feel it is simply about economics then roi should leave ASAP if UK goes

Can you find even on e credible economist that says Ireland would do better outside the EU after brexit? Lets stick to reality, not the fantasies that have crippled the UK.

downcow

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Which economists are predicting a bigger hit to Ireland than the UK?

https://www.irelandbeforeyoudie.com/five-ways-brexit-could-devastate-the-south-of-ireland/

bilston

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. Well you might find one economist saying that. Most saying not as bad as the UK but still bad enough. But we knew that before it started. Funny how we were more concerned how it would affect our friends and family up north rather than our own pockets.

Well it certainly won't be a bed of roses for the ROI. Even as a moderate minded Northern Unionist can see why people in the Republic would be pretty pissed off about the whole situation given they had absolutely no control over Brexit in the first place.

ancapailldorcha

downcow wrote: »

https://www.irelandbeforeyoudie.com/five-ways-brexit-could-devastate-the-south-of-ireland/

Please don't just dump links on this fourm. That's a blog post with no citations from any Economists.

listermint

downcow wrote: »

https://www.irelandbeforeyoudie.com/five-ways-brexit-could-devastate-the-south-of-ireland/

He's a journalist not an economist.

Do you just type the first thing that comes up in Google ?

First Up

downcow wrote:

If you believe the economists (which I donâ€™t) the roi is destined to even more financial difficulties than the UK after 29 March

Oh yeah?

Which economists are those?

prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

https://www.irelandbeforeyoudie.com/five-ways-brexit-could-devastate-the-south-of-ireland/

This is some clickbaity site. Where's the economist?

Nate--IRL--

downcow wrote: »

https://www.irelandbeforeyoudie.com/five-ways-brexit-could-devastate-the-south-of-ireland/

Care to highlight what part of that travel website had a quote from the economist that is predicting a bigger hit to Ireland than the UK?

Nate

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

https://www.irelandbeforeyoudie.com/five-ways-brexit-could-devastate-the-south-of-ireland/

That's an artical written by a journalist, not an economist, and it does not claim that Ireland will suffer a bigger hit than the UK. So, what was the point of posting it?

How about you try again, or just admit that your are making things up and move on.

RobMc59

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Of course the EU said that, they will not interfere in the internal workings of a member state. Those that are in the member state are free to highlight the fissures that have opened up in the 'United' Kingdom because of how Brexit has been handled by the Conservative and Unionist Party

If the EU said that`s how it is then that`s how it is,theoretical scenarios are just that,theoretical.Personally,I would be loath to hurl on the ditch about Ireland`s political situation even if I had an opinion.Some of Taoiseach Varadkar`s comments are very interesting(I wish the UK had a leader like him) but it`s Ireland`s business,even if as a citizen of a member state I possibly could.

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the EU said that`s how it is then that`s how it is,theoretical scenarios are just that,theoretical.Personally,I would be loath to hurl on the ditch about Ireland`s political situation even if I had an opinion.Some of Taoiseach Varadkar`s comments are very interesting(I wish the UK had a leader like him) but it`s Ireland`s business,even if as a citizen of a member state I possibly could.

There would be nothing wrong with you commenting on Irish politics, even if you wanted to be very critical. You're not an MP or a diplomat or something, you can say what you like.

If Irish posters can be very critical of Brexit politicians, I don't see the slightest issue with British posters being critical of Varadkar, Martin & Co.

sKeith

Why is the backstop being made such a big deal over?

Uk stated it does not want a border thru ireland.
Ireland stated it does not want a border thru ireland.
I'm sure N.I. said it doesn't want a border thru Ireland.

Conservatives are temporarily alligned with DUP and i believe its DUPs redline.

If parliment pass Mays deal, and new goverment is formed without DUP, wont the backstop not be a problem then.
Only the DUP seem to not want N.I. to have special status.

Rest of UK leaves, NI gets special status and london moves to NI and make profits that it can share with the other members of UK.

I have only heard of backstop as the reason WA is bad, for possibly locking them in unsolvable position, but it is solveable without the DUP in goverment which is only temporarily or did I miss other reason on why its bad?

Infini

downcow wrote: »

If you believe the economists (which I don’t) the roi is destined to even more financial difficulties than the UK after 29 March

Most predictions show a Hard Brexit being a speedbump for our economy: Slower Growth but well still grow and divest from the UK as a result of circumstances replacing their market with others. They show the UK as a total Dumpster Fire situation with recession (Depression level for NI) conditions as a result. They also end up having every agreement they have null and void and left either on temporary measures that are liable to be ended at a moments notice or woefully inferior to existing ones.

This is also another Brexiteer delusion: Brush off experts because they flat dont agree with you rather than debate how they make these predictions.

An Ciarraioch

sKeith wrote: »

Why is the backstop being made such a big deal over?

Uk stated it does not want a border thru ireland.
Ireland stated it does not want a border thru ireland.
I'm sure N.I. said it doesn't want a border thru Ireland.

Conservatives are temporarily alligned with DUP and i believe its DUPs redline.

If parliment pass Mays deal, and new goverment is formed without DUP, wont the backstop not be a problem then.
Only the DUP seem to not want N.I. to have special status.

Rest of UK leaves, NI gets special status and london moves to NI and make profits that it can share with the other members of UK.

I have only heard of backstop as the reason WA is bad, for possibly locking them in unsolvable position, but it is solveable without the DUP in goverment which is only temporarily or did I miss other reason on why its bad?

Corbyn has also said that Labour's (rather hazy) alternative Brexit wouldn't have a backstop, because he wants a bespoke Single Market and Customs Union deal.

McGiver

SNIP. Stop with the personal stuff please.

prawnsambo

sKeith wrote: »

Why is the backstop being made such a big deal over?

Uk stated it does not want a border thru ireland.
Ireland stated it does not want a border thru ireland.
I'm sure N.I. said it doesn't want a border thru Ireland.

Conservatives are temporarily alligned with DUP and i believe its DUPs redline.

If parliment pass Mays deal, and new goverment is formed without DUP, wont the backstop not be a problem then.
Only the DUP seem to not want N.I. to have special status.

Rest of UK leaves, NI gets special status and london moves to NI and make profits that it can share with the other members of UK.

I have only heard of backstop as the reason WA is bad, for possibly locking them in unsolvable position, but it is solveable without the DUP in goverment which is only temporarily or did I miss other reason on why its bad?

You are mostly right. The problem for the UK is that without a permanent solution to the border, the backstop will remain indefinitely as the default position.

But as long as it stands, it makes it more difficult for the rest of the UK to leave the CU or else face greater and greater divergence between NI and the UK. They are all choices for the UK. They haven't proven very good at making difficult choices.

McGiver

prawnsambo wrote:

Yes. 84% in favour of the EU. The Poles are absolutely wavering.

He meant the current Polish regime i.e. xenophobic nationalist militaristic clero-fascistic PiS. Not the Polish people.

A Dub in Glasgo

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the EU said that`s how it is then that`s how it is,theoretical scenarios are just that,theoretical.Personally,I would be loath to hurl on the ditch about Ireland`s political situation even if I had an opinion.Some of Taoiseach Varadkar`s comments are very interesting(I wish the UK had a leader like him) but it`s Ireland`s business,even if as a citizen of a member state I possibly could.

Well considering I am an Irish citizen and resident in the UK, I can talk about either

McGiver

So we've had a several dozen posts long session with a Brexiteer troll. It took me a while to go through that and frankly whilst I appreciate a difference of opinions here, I can't help myself to categorise the poster's contribution as delusional, emotional and baseless shout-outs. When asked to reply questions in a structured manner it was ignored, so we haven't got really far in terms of a discussion, it rather resembled a broken record or a monologue than a discussion.

Now, what I find interesting though is the analysis of the contributor's thought process. It helps to understand one sort of a Brexiteer (there are many types of them), the one of the extreme type. What percentage of the English electorate could fall into this? As I had mentioned in the past, based on the polls, roughly 30% of the English electorate are quite hardcore Brexiteers (who favour "no deal"). Let's say that the most extreme ones as our poster here are just 10% (which roughly corresponds with typical vote share for extreme parties in European countries) - that is at least 2M people with these kind of opinions about the EU and the UK. I find this rather depressing and alarming, because it's really a lot of people.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting to see the rise in UK nationals here opting for dual citizenship - presumably wanting to guard against any changes to the CTA:

https://www.thejournal.ie/new-lives-over-10000-people-became-irish-citizens-last-year-4418436-Jan2019/

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

So we've had a several dozen posts long session with a Brexiteer troll. It took me a while to go through that and frankly whilst I appreciate a difference of opinions here, I can't help myself to categorise the poster's contribution as delusional, emotional and baseless shout-outs. When asked to reply questions in a structured manner it was ignored, so we haven't got really far in terms of a discussion, it rather resembled a broken record or a monologue than a discussion.

Now, what I find interesting though is the analysis of the contributor's thought process. It helps to understand one sort of a Brexiteer (there are many types of them), the one of the extreme type. What percentage of the English electorate could fall into this? As I had mentioned in the past, based on the polls, roughly 30% of the English electorate are quite hardcore Brexiteers (who favour "no deal"). Let's say that the most extreme ones as our poster here are just 10% (which roughly corresponds with typical vote share for extreme parties in European countries) - that is at least 2M people with these kind of opinions about the EU and the UK. I find this rather depressing and alarming, because it's really a lot of people.

I don't know about 'hard' or 'extreme' or whatever but I would estimate that about 30% of the UK electorate are committed Brexiteers / Europhobes, who are not open to changing their minds in any way : that is their default setting.

It gives the country a massive headache going forward. No matter what happens, they are not going to shift their opinion and are probably going to strongly oppose every single Brexit outcome.