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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Peter Flynt

Since it's the First of January in the year of our brexit . . . No better time for a prediction.

Prediction: Brexit won't happen.

Why?

Because it's a bat**** crazy idea pandering to racists & loons.
I suspect that May will not get her deal through Westminster and, after two failed attempts, is forced to resign. Meanwhile an amendment (to May's deal) in parliament will be voted on and passed to . . . .and the amendment will be along the lines of a referendum: May's EU deal or Remain!.

The EU will allow A50 to be extended to accommodate this with the referendum taking place in early May.
A second referendum will bring a substantial 'remain' victory, along with international humiliation for the UK. Realising they're gonna lose loony brexiteers will call for a boycott among original brexiteers in order to try and discredit the vote.

This will have knock on effects in the UK with, possibly, civil and social unrest as all the racists come out with yellow vests on feeling that their brexit has been stolen from them. Army called in with police to restore order which will carry on throughout the summer.

Midlife

downcow wrote: »

Tell me what you guys think people of UK should do.
They have had the biggest vote in history which said they want to leave the Eu.
Are you guys really suggesting that is ignored?
Eu are pissing off many nations with their arrogance and lack of democracy.
I will be honest. I would hate to see us stay now (given the way Eu is behaving) and then find out a few years down the line that a few other nations has had the balls to actually leave.
I like European people, love visiting European countries, liked the concept of the common market, love the diversity of foreign nationals from Eu and rest of world living and working amongst us but I’m afraid I have had too much of Eu arrogance.
Advise me what we should do.
My thought is that we should negotiate right to the wire to get best deal possible. (I think that is maybe what we are doing).

Not disagreeing but would it be possible to have examples of EU arrogance/lack of democracy?

I think changing fundamentally the trajectory of an entire nation because some people come across as arrogant is a bit much to be honest. Maybe it's worth changing anyway but that's a pretty bad reason.

RobMc59

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Since it's the First of January in the year of our brexit . . . No better time for a prediction.

Prediction: Brexit won't happen.

Why?

Because it's a bat**** crazy idea pandering to racists & loons.
I suspect that May will not get her deal through Westminster and, after two failed attempts, is forced to resign. Meanwhile an amendment (to May's deal) in parliament will be voted on and passed to . . . .and the amendment will be along the lines of a referendum: May's EU deal or Remain!.

The EU will allow A50 to be extended to accommodate this with the referendum taking place in early May.
A second referendum will bring a substantial 'remain' victory, along with international humiliation for the UK. Realising they're gonna lose loony brexiteers will call for a boycott among original brexiteers in order to try and discredit the vote.

This will have knock on effects in the UK with, possibly, civil and social unrest as all the racists come out with yellow vests on feeling that their brexit has been stolen from them. Army called in with police to restore order which will carry on throughout the summer.

I hope you are correct that there will be a substantial remain victory but if that happens it will only result in humiliation for the brexiteers,the rest of the sane people in the UK will see it as a victory for common sense and annoyance for all those who would like to see the fragmentation of the EU.

Nody

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Since it's the First of January in the year of our brexit . . . No better time for a prediction.

Prediction: Chaos Brexit by mainly incompetence with a bit of a push from the disaster capitalists ensuring things remain unstable

Why?

Because any other option requires UK politicians to suddenly collectively pull their heads out of their arses and start cooperating across party lines without either parties leadership's support (and most likely against their will with the whips working for the party leader) which there have been zero signs of since the vote and I don't believe in miracles. Remember crash out Brexit (or Chaos Brexit as I've renamed it) is the default option. To avoid this 50.1% of the parliament need not only agree on an alternative, vote for it, but also somehow make the government enact said decision on top of making the government ask for more time as there's not enough time now before crash out to get it voted through in Europe. And this is to be done without the support of the Leadership in Tories or Labour to reach this new deal and get it sorted.

I fully agree there is no majority for May's deal. I fully agree there's no majority for Chaos Brexit. But I also believe there is no majority for ANY deal in ANY form which means the default option is what will happen in reality on 29th March. Not because it's desired (beyond a handful of individuals) but because it's the default option which happens when they can't agree on a plan of action that will be voted through. I'm sure the parliament will tell the government to go back to the negotiation table etc. but the reality is there is no better deal coming, there is no renegotiation that will happen and no matter what there's not going to be enough people to vote to agree May's deal and instead will argue about remaining etc. And as they do ding dong here comes 11pm 29th March and the debate is still ongoing...

Peter Flynt

RobMc59 wrote: »

I hope you are correct that there will be a substantial remain victory but if that happens it will only result in humiliation for the brexiteers,the rest of the sane people in the UK will see it as a victory for common sense and annoyance for all those who would like to see the fragmentation of the EU.

Brexit was always primarily about the break up of the European Union, and not Britain's exit from the EU.

The brexiteers HATE the EU because they see it as a power stealing the limelight from their British Empire (which still exists in their minds. . . some of them call it the 'Anglosphere'). It was never meant to be like this. . . They won the war (and only they, no one else was involved).

As Michael Heseltine stated. . . You cannot reason with these people. Never could.
At some point the adults in the room have to take control.

Peter Flynt

Nody wrote: »

Prediction: Chaos Brexit by mainly incompetence with a bit of a push from the disaster capitalists ensuring things remain unstable

Why?

Because any other option requires UK politicians to suddenly collectively pull their heads out of their arses and start cooperating across party lines without either parties leadership's support

And that's precisely what will happen to prevent Chaos Brexit, as you term it.

There's no more than 200 MPs (at an absolutely maximum) to think that Brexit should go ahead. The rest will have to band together and ignore their leaders and whips, and the catalyst for doing this will probably be an amendment to May's current deal to allow for a second referendum.

In fact I did state that May would be forced out (in post above). One way she could keep her job, although very unlikely as her fate rests with delivering brexit given all of the "brexit means brexit" crap she has spouted, is that a group of cross party MPs could pledge to support her deal if she puts a second referendum in as part of the deal.

I don't think she could realistically go for this but stranger things have happened.

Strazdas

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Brexit was always primarily about the break up of the European Union, and not Britain's exit from the EU.

The brexiteers HATE the EU because they see it as a power stealing the limelight from their British Empire (which still exists in their minds. . . some of them call it the 'Anglosphere'). It was never meant to be like this. . . They won the war (and only they, no one else was involved).

As Michael Heseltine stated. . . You cannot reason with these people. Never could.
At some point the adults in the room have to take control.

Also, a smokescreen for Britain's internal problems. Sooner than admit their political system was messed up and failing badly, they conveniently had the EU to blame for everything.

The fact that they cannot 'do' Brexit is very revealing. The system is a shambles and they don't know how to proceed with Brexit nor how to cancel it.

Nody

Peter Flynt wrote: »

The rest will have to band together and ignore their leaders and whips, and the catalyst for doing this will probably be an amendment to May's current deal to allow for a second referendum.

And that's the flaw in your thinking imo; even the most stout Remainers have bent under the whip multiple times due to promises that remained unfulfilled. The problem is not having enough people being Pro Brexit; it's getting enough people to defy the whip in both parties AND unite in a common cause which they have not done. They did not do it for the Brexit yes/no vote, they did not do it on the vote if parliament would have a say or not and I don't see them all suddenly getting a spine and deciding to change their behavior this time. They will follow the whip because in the end they are craven people who care more about the fact they will have the party behind them in the next election than how their voters will fare from it all; esp. once they can blame someone else (Tories, bullies in EU etc.) and their career is hence what they care for accordingly.

cryptocurrency

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Brexit was always primarily about the break up of the European Union, and not Britain's exit from the EU.

The brexiteers HATE the EU because they see it as a power stealing the limelight from their British Empire (which still exists in their minds. . . some of them call it the 'Anglosphere'). It was never meant to be like this. . . They won the war (and only they, no one else was involved).

As Michael Heseltine stated. . . You cannot reason with these people. Never could.
At some point the adults in the room have to take control.

I wholeheartedly disagree. The Brexiteers are clearly Democrats who believe in the will of the people and that the EU is moving the exact opposite way to the rest of the world. The UK has always been more global in its outlook and will prosper post a no deal brexit. The biggest fear in the EU is an independent and prosperous UK. The current deal with the backstop is designed to make the UK free and competitive on their doorstep.

Peter Flynt

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I wholeheartedly disagree. The Brexiteers are clearly Democrats who believe in the will of the people . . .

The will of the people. . . I see the brexiteers are still using that stupid phrase

1st dalkey dalkey

I would tend to agree with Nody

Failing some major about turns, there is little room for anything but a no deal.

Corbyn has stood on the ditch throughout waiting for May to fall. He will still be waiting on Brexit day, because much as brexiter Tories hate her plan, they hate him more.

I'm not convinced that a re-run of the referendum would give a major victory to the Remain side, and anything other then a major victory would make things worse.

The bottom line is that the UK has a major attitude problem towards the EU, driven mainly by its supposedly 'free' press and the lazy attitude of its politicians to UK problems i.e. blame the EU.
For as long as that attitude persists the EU is probably better off without them.

Folkstonian

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Brexit was always primarily about the break up of the European Union, and not Britain's exit from the EU.

The brexiteers HATE the EU because they see it as a power stealing the limelight from their British Empire (which still exists in their minds. . . some of them call it the 'Anglosphere'). It was never meant to be like this. . . They won the war (and only they, no one else was involved).

As Michael Heseltine stated. . . You cannot reason with these people. Never could.
At some point the adults in the room have to take control.

No, no... This is your projection of why you think people voted to leave, with a healthy splash of Anglophobia mixed in.

I know lots of people who voted to leave, for lots of different reasons. None of which were ‘frustration at the EU stealing the British Empire’s limelight’.

I’d gamble even without knowing a thing about you that you don’t know anyone who voted to leave, and don’t really know as much about English people as you think.

Granted, as an outside observer your input is irrelevant, but it’s really quite tiresome to hear the pro-EU camp on the one hand accuse leave voters of being reborn Victorian Imperialists, whilst anti-EU voters suspect remainers of all looking to make Britain a mere subservient territory of a fully federalised EU.

So much hyperbole, so much nonsense on both sides. No wonder dialogue continually breaks down.

megaten

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The Brexiteers are clearly Democrats who believe in the will of the people

Can you prove this in any way.

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

Tell me what you guys think people of UK should do. They have had the biggest vote in history which said they want to leave the Eu. Are you guys really suggesting that is ignored?

Lets not make that referendum something it was not, its legal basis made it nothing more than a glorified opinion poll. It was advisory and it's a good thing too. Had it been binding then the rampant corruption would have left it wide open to legal challenge which could easily have nullified the result.

Peter Flynt

Nody wrote: »

And that's the flaw in your thinking imo; even the most stout Remainers have bent under the whip multiple times due to promises that remained unfulfilled. The problem is not having enough people being Pro Brexit; it's getting enough people to defy the whip in both parties AND unite in a common cause which they have not done. They did not do it for the Brexit yes/no vote, they did not do it on the vote if parliament would have a say or not and I don't see them all suddenly getting a spine and deciding to change their behavior this time. They will follow the whip because in the end they are craven people who care more about the fact they will have the party behind them in the next election than how their voters will fare from it all; esp. once they can blame someone else (Tories, bullies in EU etc.) and their career is hence what they care for accordingly.

It's a fair point and if they vote brexit they deserve all that it brings.

However I think 2019 will see a reverse.

All it takes is an amendment to, say, May's deal or a one page act of parliament in a private members bill or something.

prawnsambo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I wholeheartedly disagree. The Brexiteers are clearly Democrats who believe in the will of the people and that the EU is moving the exact opposite way to the rest of the world. The UK has always been more global in its outlook and will prosper post a no deal brexit. The biggest fear in the EU is an independent and prosperous UK. The current deal with the backstop is designed to make the UK free and competitive on their doorstep.

Please explain this. Sounds great and all, but what way is the world moving that the EU is counter to.

Peter Flynt

Folkstonian wrote: »

I know lots of people who voted to leave, for lots of different reasons. None of which were ‘frustration at the EU stealing the British Empire’s limelight’.

That's what's in the national psyche of millions of English people. This is why the old primarily voted brexit as opposed to the young. The old grew up in a land forever talking of the war, the Empire, the royal family and heroic tales of derring-do.

Brexit is English nationalism primarily based on racism and xenophobia.

Can I also state that the percentage number of foreign born people in Ireland exceeds that of the UK and we did not invade anyone and nick their land.

cryptocurrency

megaten wrote: »

Can you prove this in any way.

The backed following through with a clear referendum result. There is zero trust of most remainers now, most clearly despise democracy.
I noticed today that Leo is warning of Russian interference in the upcoming European Parliment Elections when everyone knows in advance that the eurosceptic movements everywhere will see huge gains. This is designed to discredit the results in advance so expect the likes of Tusk, Junker, Vohs, Barnier, Blair, Campbell all really ramp up the Russian claims in the coming months. They will probably use this to ensure the masses voices are trampled further for future elections. The EU is toast if they let the people of Europe have a real voice on it.

I'm fairly certain the EU is toast anyway and the horse has well and truly bolted.

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

Please explain this. Sounds great and all, but what way is the world moving that the EU is counter to.

I think that much should be obvious. The EU stands for openness, human rights, consumer protection and a rules based order. It is surrounded by other powers that have come to stand for isolationism, a race to the bottom on regulation and workers rights and a might is right approach to the international order.

cryptocurrency

prawnsambo wrote: »

Please explain this. Sounds great and all, but what way is the world moving that the EU is counter to.

The EU is looking inward and becoming increasingly socialist and totalitarian with very poor growth and huge youth unemployment while the eastern nation's boom. A global nation like the UK just doesn't want to sit on a sinking ship while there is serious money to be made in the rest of the world.

People cite all these deals the EU has here and there but never go into the detail of these deals. The UK is looking for real free trade, real free markets without the socialist/communist characteristics that the EU like to creep into theirs.

prawnsambo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The backed following through with a clear referendum result. There is zero trust of most remainers now, most clearly despise democracy.
I noticed today that Leo is warning of Russian interference in the upcoming European Parliment Elections when everyone knows in advance that the eurosceptic movements everywhere will see huge gains. This is designed to discredit the results in advance so expect the likes of Tusk, Junker, Vohs, Barnier, Blair, Campbell all really ramp up the Russian claims in the coming months. They will probably use this to ensure the masses voices are trampled further for future elections. The EU is toast if they let the people of Europe have a real voice on it.

I'm fairly certain the EU is toast anyway and the horse has well and truly bolted.

If you think the Russians aren't involved in trying to undermine elections in the world, you have your head deeply buried in the sand. It's not even circumstantial evidence now, there is direct evidence piling up. They're not even subtle about it.

The EU is one of Putin's biggest bogeymen. Sanctions, legislation and action on offshore accounts and money laundering. He's finding it harder and harder to protect his ill-gotten gains.

cryptocurrency

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think that much should be obvious. The EU stands for openness, human rights, consumer protection and a rules based order. It is surrounded by other powers that have come to stand for isolationism, a race to the bottom on regulation and workers rights and a might is right approach to the international order.

The EU doesn't stand for openness at all in economic terms and many of your ideas for consumer protection is just corporate communism by stealth by closing barriers to entry for many industries for most of the subjects of the EU.
If the EU is so good for workers why is it that the average EU subjects life is not improving like say these from Asia where real markets are happening.

1st dalkey dalkey

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU is looking inward and becoming increasingly socialist and totalitarian with very poor growth and huge youth unemployment while the eastern nation's boom. A global nation like the UK just doesn't want to sit on a sinking ship while there is serious money to be made in the rest of the world.

People cite all these deals the EU has here and there but never go into the detail of these deals. The UK is looking for real free trade, real free markets without the socialist/communist characteristics that the EU like to creep into theirs.

"Real free trade and real free markets" will have your workforce paid Indian or Malaysian wage levels.
Is that what they were told pre referendum?

Peter Flynt

cryptocurrency wrote: »

People cite all these deals the EU has here and there but never go into the detail of these deals. The UK is looking for real free trade, real free markets without the socialist/communist characteristics that the EU like to creep into theirs.

On 29th March 2019 the UK will 750+ trade deals with various countries and other economic entities based on its membership of the European Union.

One day later it will have NONE.

So best of luck.

Tell me how

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU doesn't stand for openness at all in economic terms and many of your ideas for consumer protection is just corporate communism by stealth by closing barriers to entry for many industries for most of the subjects of the EU.
If the EU is so good for workers why is it that the average EU subjects life is not improving like say these from Asia where real markets are happening.

Who do you think has the better quality of life, on average. Those in Asia, or those in the EU?
Where do you think all the sweat shops are located?

(In fact, don't bother answering that. I believe that you are deliberately adopting a position which you know is false. Your motivations for doing that are your own, but I'm not going to engage further. I'd love to debate with someone who talks some sense and advocates for Brexit, I wonder why is it that they do not appear on this thread.)

RobMc59

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The backed following through with a clear referendum result. There is zero trust of most remainers now, most clearly despise democracy.
I noticed today that Leo is warning of Russian interference in the upcoming European Parliment Elections when everyone knows in advance that the eurosceptic movements everywhere will see huge gains. This is designed to discredit the results in advance so expect the likes of Tusk, Junker, Vohs, Barnier, Blair, Campbell all really ramp up the Russian claims in the coming months. They will probably use this to ensure the masses voices are trampled further for future elections. The EU is toast if they let the people of Europe have a real voice on it.

I'm fairly certain the EU is toast anyway and the horse has well and truly bolted.

Why do you think Putin is throwing his pennys worth in?-He want`s the EU and NATO to splinter-divided we fall and all that..Russia has systematically been meddling in every important vote/referendum it can under the direction of Putin the former KGB and stazi operative

prawnsambo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU is looking inward and becoming increasingly socialist and totalitarian with very poor growth and huge youth unemployment while the eastern nation's boom. A global nation like the UK just doesn't want to sit on a sinking ship while there is serious money to be made in the rest of the world.

People cite all these deals the EU has here and there but never go into the detail of these deals. The UK is looking for real free trade, real free markets without the socialist/communist characteristics that the EU like to creep into theirs.

This is just so much nonsense. You have said exactly zero here. Just dogma and propaganda. Tell me of this socialist/communist stuff that the EU 'creeps' into deals. Are you actually expecting me to take this stuff seriously?

1st dalkey dalkey

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU doesn't stand for openness at all in economic terms and many of your ideas for consumer protection is just corporate communism by stealth by closing barriers to entry for many industries for most of the subjects of the EU.
If the EU is so good for workers why is it that the average EU subjects life is not improving like say these from Asia where real markets are happening.

The EU doesn't have 'subjects', it has members.

And they are doing OK, thank you.

Well enough that the UK has to worry about immigrants and not emigrants.

Although that might change post a hard Brexit.

cryptocurrency

prawnsambo wrote: »

If you think the Russians aren't involved in trying to undermine elections in the world, you have your head deeply buried in the sand. It's not even circumstantial evidence now, there is direct evidence piling up. They're not even subtle about it.

The EU is one of Putin's biggest bogeymen. Sanctions, legislation and action on offshore accounts and money laundering. He's finding it harder and harder to protect his ill-gotten gains.

Didn't they say the Russians spent $80k on Facebook and won the presidency, $80k to win the presidency..that easy.

Think they said $40k won the Brexit vote despite international interference from Obama saying about being bottom of the Q, the government spending £10 million posting every single home in the nation that they should vote to remain and a coordinated media campaign warning of the EU cutting off medical supplies, cheese, water, planes, more cheese, the internet, Xfactor and Stella Artois.

Yeah sure Russia is all over it, they are that good that if they pumped in another $278 into Peter Casey he'd now be president.

cryptocurrency

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is just so much nonsense. You have said exactly zero here. Just dogma and propaganda. Tell me of this socialist/communist stuff that the EU 'creeps' into deals. Are you actually expecting me to take this stuff seriously?

You don't think they are quite protectionist? The Americans seem to think so esp when trying to sell them agri products.