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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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RobMc59

boggerman1 wrote: »

The dup have a blind sense of "loyalty" to betty Windsor.most other people in the UK couldn't really care less.for decades the dup have been pandered too and allowed do what they wanted.hard to change from always saying no to everything

No disrespect,but as British citizens isn't it normal for people from NI to be loyal to the Queen?

unit 1

So we are finally coming to the endgame of this silly escapade by the uk.

Frankly I could not believe when they voted to leave, and quickly concluded that it would be easier to find a way to stay in than to leave.

I still believe this to be the case, but it has been an unedifying affair for the uk, but it will pass quickly if they stay,

A few observations if I may.

People say that the uk economy has not collapsed. While this may be true I think that it is because there in an underlying belief that they will stay in (amoung big business) , should the unthinkable happen however a very severe sharp shock could ensue that might be very difficult to quantify.

Secondly should they leave and it were to go pear shaped then it might be likely they might want to re enter at a later date. Re entry would entail joining the euro and shengen (am I right) which I imagine would be very unpalatable to brexiteers, so much so that an arguament could be made for staying to hold onto sterling and out of shengen.

The whole process has been tiresome and drawn out by the uk footdragging, and though I hope they stay they are not exactly making it easy.

road_high

boggerman1 wrote: »

The dup have a blind sense of "loyalty" to betty Windsor.most other people in the UK couldn't really care less.for decades the dup have been pandered too and allowed do what they wanted.hard to change from always saying no to everything

The DUP are living a history and past the English and real British society hasn’t lived in over a century really.

boggerman1

Charles Babbage wrote: »

You'd wonder that the DUP do not have more sense. It is in the Brexiteers interest to decouple NI as far as possible as then GB, or England, can do its own thing. If NI remains fully connected then there is no end of trouble for their plans, as Irish American congressmen and senators will start agitating if the GFA is overthrown and this will queer their US trade deal. If the DUP somehow keep NI on board, then the wilder Brexiteer plans would lead to a border poll.

The dup have a blind sense of "loyalty" to betty Windsor.most other people in the UK couldn't really care less.for decades the dup have been pandered too and allowed do what they wanted.hard to change from always saying no to everything

An Ciarraioch

downcow wrote: »

Yes, not nuetral anymore
How you can know what my feelings were 2 years ago is another quite remarkable insight you have.

Again listen to your own language. I just heard a presenter today having to admit that he was wrong to continually use the term ‘crash out’

If the UK leaves without any replacements for current EU policies, then it is an entirely accurate term.

road_high

downcow wrote: »

Yes, not nuetral anymore
How you can know what my feelings were 2 years ago is another quite remarkable insight you have.

Again listen to your own language. I just heard a presenter today having to admit that he was wrong to continually use the term ‘crash out’

You were no more a remain voter than the man on the moon!

road_high

Theanswers wrote: »

Very few of the border counties in the ROI have a good road network...

Perhaps our government (ROI) should invest in that direction instead of below the Galway/ Dublin line...

They’re not that bad- bar Louth most of them haven’t warranted full Motorways but the other N routes have all been significantly upgraded. There is a lot of investment going into and planned for roads in donegal and Monaghan in particular.
Derry to Belfast for example would be full motorway a decade ago if it had been party of the south.

downcow

lawred2 wrote: »

You quite clearly are not neutral nor have you ever been neutral.

All your posts are a testament to your Brexiteering credentials even down to the use of jaded terminolgy such as 'remoaners'.

I'm yet to hear anyone even vaguely neutral refer to remain voters as remoaners.

Yes, not nuetral anymore
How you can know what my feelings were 2 years ago is another quite remarkable insight you have.

Again listen to your own language. I just heard a presenter today having to admit that he was wrong to continually use the term ‘crash out’

Charles Babbage

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Jacob Rees-Mogg is travelling to the North to attend a DUP fundraising dinner:

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/jacob-rees-mogg-turns-down-tories-to-fundraise-for-dup-1-8753578

You'd wonder that the DUP do not have more sense. It is in the Brexiteers interest to decouple NI as far as possible as then GB, or England, can do its own thing. If NI remains fully connected then there is no end of trouble for their plans, as Irish American congressmen and senators will start agitating if the GFA is overthrown and this will queer their US trade deal. If the DUP somehow keep NI on board, then the wilder Brexiteer plans would lead to a border poll.

downcow

EdgeCase wrote: »

He basically put vaguely estimated costs on the side of a bus and presented none of the benefits.

I mean I don't like paying for petrol but my car doesn't run without it. If you only presented the fact that petrol costs me €40 a week, I would probably stop buying it, if I didn't understand it's what makes my car go!

This is exactly the point I am making. Both sides stretched the truth.

Theanswers

road_high wrote: »

Even if the North were to get an extra billion in funding it’s still a pitiful amount compared to what it needs. Roads wise it needs tens of billions to have a network comparable to the south or even their beloved UK.
Our government speaks in billions of funding for this that and the other all the time. It’s just symbolic of what a pathetic little begging bowl NI is now

Very few of the border counties in the ROI have a good road network...

Perhaps our government (ROI) should invest in that direction instead of below the Galway/ Dublin line...

road_high

tuxy wrote: »

Have they spent the £1 billion the tories promised then?

Even if the North were to get an extra billion in funding it’s still a pitiful amount compared to what it needs. Roads wise it needs tens of billions to have a network comparable to the south or even their beloved UK.
Our government speaks in billions of funding for this that and the other all the time. It’s just symbolic of what a pathetic little begging bowl NI is now

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Gross £350m
- rebate £100m
- EU investments in the UK £90m
Net £160m

I.e. BoJo liar liar pants on fire, in reality it's less than a half of that figure in net. Apart from the fact that the figure is totally meaningless when not put into a broader context e.g. % of UK's budget and what UK gets back for it.

Economic growth has stalled so it's more like

Nett £160m less £500m = about £350m a week less money.

And that's not counting the billions set aside for Brexit preparations or the billions promised to the farmers.

Also Trump has U-turned yet again on a deal with the UK so don't expect any help from there. Brexit is just a constant drip drip of bad economic news for the UK.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46720323

Donald Trump's offer of a "quick, massive, bilateral trade deal" will not be possible if Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement is approved, the US ambassador to the UK has warned.

President Trump had previously said her Brexit proposal sounded like a "great deal for the EU".

tuxy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Jacob Rees-Mogg is travelling to the North to attend a DUP fundraising dinner:

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/jacob-rees-mogg-turns-down-tories-to-fundraise-for-dup-1-8753578

Have they spent the £1 billion the tories promised then?

McGiver

lawred2 wrote: »

and that was even pointed out and admitted during the campaign

If I remember correctly the net figure was about £210m per week... So I'm not sure who exactly was revising figures upwards to £400m per week recently..

Gross £350m
- rebate £100m
- EU investments in the UK £90m
Net £160m

I.e. BoJo liar liar pants on fire, in reality it's less than a half of that figure in net. Apart from the fact that the figure is totally meaningless when not put into a broader context e.g. % of UK's budget and what UK gets back for it.

An Ciarraioch

Jacob Rees-Mogg is travelling to the North to attend a DUP fundraising dinner:

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/jacob-rees-mogg-turns-down-tories-to-fundraise-for-dup-1-8753578

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The Bus numbers ignore the money coming back from the EU in the rebate, farming, development grants, contract for spacecraft and such that mean that the UK gets back most of the EU money directly or indirectly.

Apart from not presenting the net figure (all what you mentioned above), most importantly it doesn't substantiate the multiplication effect on the economy stemming from the EU membership. You know all the global companies that are present and employ people in the UK because of the EU membership etc., all trade enabled by the EU (45% EU, 10% EFTA, 10% EU FTAs) approx 65% of UK's exports etc.

road_high

Leroy42 wrote: »

The main problem, and why the polls haven't moved more than marginally, is that the entire UK, including the media and politicians, still operate under the notion that nothing is going to change.

Sure there may be checks at the border but a few new boats will sort that out. And a few minutes extra in the queue is no biggie.

They firmly believe, lead by the likes of IDS etc, that a deal will be done at the last minute so nothing will change. (Except all the things they don't like of course, they never seem to be able to explain this contradiction.

There’s no real realities of Brexit yet as it hasn’t actually happened- a hard Brexit has to play itself out and happen for the downsides to become lived drawbacks. Only then might some regret begin and even then I can just see them blaming the EU anyhow- it’ll be the evil EU being spiteful rather than it implementing its own rules to an outside nation

lawred2

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The UK economy is down 2.5% relative to everyone else since the referendum. And the UK can hit the reset button anytime so Brexit might not even happen.

HM Revenue & Customs are down £500m a week.
So there is no more money for the NHS (the £20Bn doesn't even cover inflation)
Total loss is more than the EU Divorce Bill

Check property values from before the referendum
Now do the same in Euro, almost every home owner in the UK is poorer.

The Bus numbers ignore the money coming back from the EU in the rebate, farming, development grants, contract for spacecraft and such that mean that the UK gets back most of the EU money directly or indirectly.

and that was even pointed out and admitted during the campaign

If I remember correctly the net figure was about £210m per week... So I'm not sure who exactly was revising figures upwards to £400m per week recently..

McGiver

Folkstonian wrote: »

Personally, I’ve always been in the group labelled unenthusiastic remainers. I think close economic partnership with the continent is vital but have little desire in being part of a political union. I know lots of people at home, mostly well educated, well off, and relatively young who would be broadly in the same category.

It sounds more like a Brexiteers' narrative, I wouldn't call that Remainer actually. The EU is a political union - something actually resembling a confederation. The following is one of the Brexiteers typical arguments - "We are/were fine with the EU as an economic block but not with a EU as a political union" and add all the red herrings about super-state, undemocratic nature of the EU (House of Lords anyone?) etc. In reality, the EU and all it's predecessors, including the EEC which UK joined, had and have political integration and political dimension at their core, since the Treaty of Rome, and even before that in 1950 Schuman's declaration (founding moment of the ECSC). In fact, the EU always was an federalist/integration project attempted via an economic integration (not the other way round). This is clear to anyone who has read anything about the history and workings of the EU. Yes, there were/are different "schools of thought" within the EU i.e. the federalists and not-so-federalists, but you would find that the reformist/not-so-federalist voice was represented mostly by the UK and gained some momentum only several years after the UK had joined the EEC once Eurosceptic/Thatcherite/Reaganite groups gained momentum in the UK. I would dare to posit that the federalists have always been the major/dominant force in the EU. I am not judging here whether that is good or bad, but just trying to show that the notion of "EU has changed from an economic block to a quasi-superstate" is blatantly untrue - it's always been a political project aimed at a gradual political integration.

The "we are OK with economic integration but not with political one" is perhaps a valid proposition but it is certainly a minority opinion and I can hardly see how it can work with the EU as it is now, with its goals and principles, and given the single currency amongst other things. Economic integration without political one has its limits (think NAFTA for example), hence this is not the EU's objective, it has gone and wants to go further than that.

Capt'n Midnight

downcow wrote: »

I don’t have the time or the energy to respond to all that. Problem is you seem to think remain told truth and leave told lies. The fact is they both equally stretched the truth. Take your first point about the bus. My understanding is that the bus said there would be £350m available to health service that is currently going to Eu this is factually correct (or as was pointed out this week it was under estimated actually over 400) this is the money that won’t go to Eu so our elect reps in UK can decide to do with it what the wish incl health service. As for the remain predictions. We were told by great and good that the economy would crash the day after the referendum if we voted out (not after we left - the day after the vote). This patently did not happen, indeed the is all time record high employment in UK today.
So while this nonsense continues I think we are headed out fast as people can see the spin of the remainders. And I say this as someone who didn’t vote because I was neutral. I am growing more of a brexiteers everyday

The UK economy is down 2.5% relative to everyone else since the referendum. And the UK can hit the reset button anytime so Brexit might not even happen.

HM Revenue & Customs are down £500m a week.
So there is no more money for the NHS (the £20Bn doesn't even cover inflation)
Total loss is more than the EU Divorce Bill

Check property values from before the referendum
Now do the same in Euro, almost every home owner in the UK is poorer.

The Bus numbers ignore the money coming back from the EU in the rebate, farming, development grants, contract for spacecraft and such that mean that the UK gets back most of the EU money directly or indirectly.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

I don’t have the time or the energy to respond to all that. Problem is you seem to think remain told truth and leave told lies. The fact is they both equally stretched the truth. Take your first point about the bus. My understanding is that the bus said there would be £350m available to health service that is currently going to Eu this is factually correct (or as was pointed out this week it was under estimated actually over 400) this is the money that won’t go to Eu so our elect reps in UK can decide to do with it what the wish incl health service.
As for the remain predictions. We were told by great and good that the economy would crash the day after the referendum if we voted out (not after we left - the day after the vote). This patently did not happen, indeed the is all time record high employment in UK today.
So while this nonsense continues I think we are headed out fast as people can see the spin of the remainders. And I say this as someone who didn’t vote because I was neutral. I am growing more of a brexiteers everyday

You quite clearly are not neutral nor have you ever been neutral.

All your posts are a testament to your Brexiteering credentials even down to the use of jaded terminolgy such as 'remoaners'.

I'm yet to hear anyone even vaguely neutral refer to remain voters as remoaners.

EdgeCase

He basically put vaguely estimated costs on the side of a bus and presented none of the benefits.

I mean I don't like paying for petrol but my car doesn't run without it. If you only presented the fact that petrol costs me €40 a week, I would probably stop buying it, if I didn't understand it's what makes my car go!

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Problem is you seem to think remain told truth and leave told lies. The fact is they both equally stretched the truth.

If you believe that, would you then agree that the whole referendum campaign and vote was contaminated, and the government should not make any decisions based on what is logically an unreliable result?

downcow wrote: »

My understanding is that the bus said there would be £350m available to health service that is currently going to Eu this is factually correct (or as was pointed out this week it was under estimated actually over 400) this is the money that won’t go to Eu so our elect reps in UK can decide to do with it what the wish incl health service.

Your understanding is wrong. You are relying entirely on figures provided by Boris Johnson that have been disputed and rejected by just about everyone else, including Nigel Farage. The 400m is Boris' projection of what the UK might have paid in 2020-2021 ... bearing in mind that the EU hasn't finalised its budget for this period; and in any case the 400m and the 350m did not take account of Britain's rebate, which reduced the actual amount to 276m/wk.

On the otherhand, yes, you are correct - once out of the EU, Westminster will be able to decide what to spend the money on. So far, we know that they've allocated £1bn as a bribe to the DUP, £4bn as a bribe to a bunch of African states; £14m to a ferry company with no ferries, and another £90m to genuine (non-British) ferry companies to keep imports flowing.

That's over a third of the "£350m a week" already spent on nothing in particular before the UK even starts spending on everything that's needed to properly "take back control" - customs officers, for example - and replacing financial supports that previously came from the EU - like farm subsidy payments. Oh, and the UK economy has been harmed by the Leave vote. It may not have been the dramatic crash predicted by some, but it is real economic damage nevertheless.

A Dub in Glasgo

SNIP. No more one-liners please.

RobMc59

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm actually more concerned that this could trigger a cascade of problems in the UK itself, leading to a big unstable mess sitting off the coast of continental Europe and attached to Ireland.

The UK could go a whole lot of different ways after Brexit but I don't honestly believe that the British public are diehard libertarians, who want their social democracy dismantled and replaced by some version of Victorian ultra capitalism of the type being proposed by some of the Tories. That's where the Tories will meet their comeuppance as they've basically sold lies about protectionism and increased public expenditure and are intent on delivering fairly brutal reforms that remove all of the safety nets.

How the British go on to interact with Europe and the world generally remains to be seen. If they think they can rebuild the empire or something equivalent they are in for a very unpleasant shock as the world has moved on and they're at best a mid sized fading old power that's increasingly irrelevant.

I would suspect the most likely outcome is they end up as a poorer state that is left trying to suck up to superpowers. The USA isn't what it used to be and may have huge internal problems to deal with after Trump. I can't see them really being that focused on what the UK is doing and it's likely China will attempt to just use its financial power to control as much as possible in the UK.

I would potentially see a much weaker Britain in a decade's time, probably dancing to Beijing's tune.

Your assessment of the UK post a hard brexit is frightening and the potential similarity to a post WW1 Germany is a sobering thought.-Let's hope it doesn't happen as the last thing the UK,or Europe needs is a vacuum into which a modern version of Oswald Mosley could step,feeding the UK public's insecurities.

Folkstonian

McGiver wrote: »

By the way, this observation has been repeatedly made by several continental European authors, seems to be the overall impression of the Irish people and I have read quite a few English authors concluding the same. Do you think it's a coincidence?

Maybe, I speak pretty good French and a fair amount of German but don’t really read much of their media outside of sports publications so I don’t actually know what they are saying about England or Brexit.

Personally, I’ve always been in the group labelled unenthusiastic remainers. I think close economic partnership with the continent is vital but have little desire in being part of a political union. I know lots of people at home, mostly well educated, well off, and relatively young who would be broadly in the same category.

Remainers, but not particularly fanatical about the European project.

So maybe there’s some truth in it, but the evidence is all quite anecdotal.

Tell me how

Folkstonian wrote: »

Very sweeping and unsubstantiated.

I don’t think there are many people in the U.K. looking to leave NATO, for instance, other than the oddball Trotskyists of Momentum.

Certainly not much appetite among the wider public.

Have you heard about the result of the referendum and seen the conversation since then?

What sort of substantiation are you looking for?

McGiver

EdgeCase wrote: »

I would suspect the most likely outcome is they end up as a poorer state that is left trying to suck up to superpowers. The USA isn't what it used to be and may have huge internal problems to deal with after Trump. I can't see them really being that focused on what the UK is doing and it's likely China will attempt to just use its financial power to control as much as possible in the UK.

I would potentially see a much weaker Britain in a decade's time, probably dancing to Beijing's tune.

Add Russian increase in collusion, spying and economic activity as well. The Chinese for sure. And US will profit from any deregulation and/or chaos regardless of their political situation as the big corporation will smell blood and go for the meat under any US leadership Trump or not, so to say.

McGiver

Folkstonian wrote: »

Very sweeping and unsubstantiated.

I don’t think there are many people in the U.K. looking to leave NATO, for instance, other than the oddball Trotskyists of Momentum.

Certainly not much appetite among the wider public.

By the way, this observation has been repeatedly made by several continental European authors, seems to be the overall impression of the Irish people and I have read quite a few English authors concluding the same. Do you think it's a coincidence?