Senior Brexiteer minister Liam Fox says there is a 50-50 chance the UK will not leave the EU on 29 March if MPs reject Theresa May's Brexit deal next month. The international trade secretary told the Sunday Times it would only be "100% certain" if MPs back the deal. He said if the deal is rejected, that "would shatter the bond of trust between the electorate and Parliament". MPs are due to vote on the withdrawal agreement in January, with the UK scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March. The agreement negotiated by Mrs May with the EU - which sets the terms of the UK's exit and a declaration on future relations - will only come into force with a majority backing in Parliament. The Commons vote was due to be held on 11 December but the PM postponed it once it became clear it would be defeated by a large margin.
ancapailldorcha wrote: » Liam Fox has come out and said that Brexit has only a 50% chance of happening if May's deal is rejected. From the BBC: I don't know what he expects to happen. Everyone hates the deal. The Christmas break won't change that. The hardcore Brexiteers have already shown their disdain for the people of this country and there's no reason to believe that this has changed.
joseywhales wrote: » They will never leave, its all just an excercise in bloodletting, if noone actually wants to leave including most of parlament, they will contrive any possible way not to leave including a deal where they don't really leave, their collective subconscious won't allow it. If they had a referendum where they asked if all of parlaiment should commit suicide it would pass and probably be better for the country and finally satisfy the electorate.
Sam Russell wrote: » I take it Fox is trying to say to fellow Brexiteers that if they do not take the WA on offer, there is a high chance Brexit will be cancelled, either by HOC or by a second referendum, and any other option, like a threat of a crash out could get the whole Brexit mess canned. He is also concerned that a GE could result in Corbyn getting into No 10.
Christy42 wrote: » Hilariously if they decode to stay they will claim the EU bullied them into it.
Seth Brundle wrote: » Can the deadline date be delayed?
J Mysterio wrote: » Jean-Claude Juncker has called on the United Kingdom to “get your act together” over Brexit, branding some Britons “entirely unreasonable” for expecting Brussels to put forward a solution. The European Commission president also rejected claims of a plot to keep the UK in the EU “by all possible means” and revealed he fears the majority of MPs “deeply distrust” both the EU and Theresa May. Mr Juncker’s comments to German newspaper Welt am Sonntag were published as British cabinet Brexiteer Liam Fox said the chances of Britain leaving the European Union will be little more than “50-50” if UK prime minister Theresa May’s deal is rejected by Parliament.Irish Times
road_high wrote: » Latest headlines I’m reading is that they may now extend the leave date...! Will they ever actually leave?
Infini wrote: » There truthfully is no extention without a 2nd referendum or A50 cancellation. The EU will not agree otherwise. They'll want a decision on this and if A50 is cancelled then that will be the end of it as in no Brexit for them as if they try cancelling in bad faith it could backfire on the UK.
Nody wrote: » I was only pondering what a GE would really do from an EU perspective. Basically for EU there are three options really from a GE. 1) Tories remain in power - Noting changed compared to today 2) Labour gains enough to get in power - They stated they want to renegotiate the deal which will not happen 3) No party gets enough vote and haggling ensues In none of those three scenarios is there a significant step change forward compared to the current status as far as EU is concerned. Hence I'd agree referendum would be about the only reason to extend excluding wanting to buy more times for Brexit crash out on the EU side (i.e. give Ireland, Belgium etc. another 6 to 12 months to get more infrastructure in place).
RobMc59 wrote: » I believe if Labour won a GE the EU would negotiate with them as they would want something completely different to the TM deal-which might suit the EU more than the deal on the table.
Evd-Burner wrote: » Unfortunately though to do that it will cause the UK a lot of short to medium term harm.
kunst nugget wrote: » And us too. People seem to be making comments about this as if we are somehow immune to the fallout from a hard Brexit. It will be an awful kick to the balls of our economy and I can't really see a way that we won't enter a recession if it happens. And the worst part is that we had no hand in being sabotaged in this way.
Water John wrote: » The EU have not ruled out a different, soft Brexit as in staying in CJU and SM. What they have ruled out is opening the present negotiations again. What is on the table is as far as UK can push. A softer option will always be considered.
kunst nugget wrote: » And us too. People seem to be making comments about this as if we are somehow immune to the fallout from a hard Brexit.
judeboy101 wrote: » Current migrant attempts to cross the channel aren't helping things.
judeboy101 wrote: » A referendum just just engrain the animosity towards europe for generations come among leavers. Even the most optimistic projections are a 60/40 remain and that is just plants the seed for future article 50's.
CelticRambler wrote: » It'll be a lesson for Ireland too - that we should have been making better use of our access to the rest of the EU and not putting so many of our eggs in the British basket. Ireland has also been somewhat short-sighted over the last few decades, depending too much on the English-speaking market - including the US - to the detriment of others. Only now those others speak English as well as we do, and have the advantage of being fluent in two or three additional languages too. They're not EU migrants, though, are they? Nothing to do with us, mate!
murphaph wrote: » In fairness to the businesses and state agencies involved, the figures clearly show we have become even less reliant on the UK market than before the referendum. It's down to under 10% of our exports which is really quite a remarkable achievement. More can and is being done right now though. Brexit may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Ireland medium term.
