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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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judeboy101

They are a malignant tumour in the EU as it is. Better to excise it while we can.

J Mysterio

Jean-Claude Juncker has called on the United Kingdom to “get your act together” over Brexit, branding some Britons “entirely unreasonable” for expecting Brussels to put forward a solution.

The European Commission president also rejected claims of a plot to keep the UK in the EU “by all possible means” and revealed he fears the majority of MPs “deeply distrust” both the EU and Theresa May.

Mr Juncker’s comments to German newspaper Welt am Sonntag were published as British cabinet Brexiteer Liam Fox said the chances of Britain leaving the European Union will be little more than “50-50” if UK prime minister Theresa May’s deal is rejected by Parliament.

Irish Times

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I take it Fox is trying to say to fellow Brexiteers that if they do not take the WA on offer, there is a high chance Brexit will be cancelled, either by HOC or by a second referendum, and any other option, like a threat of a crash out could get the whole Brexit mess canned.

He is also concerned that a GE could result in Corbyn getting into No 10.

Labour would know that as well. I can't see May winning over anywhere near enough Labour MP's to make up for the shortfall from her own party.

road_high

joseywhales wrote: »

They will never leave, its all just an excercise in bloodletting, if noone actually wants to leave including most of parlament, they will contrive any possible way not to leave including a deal where they don't really leave, their collective subconscious won't allow it.

If they had a referendum where they asked if all of parlaiment should commit suicide it would pass and probably be better for the country and finally satisfy the electorate.

You’d think after over two years to plan for leaving that they’d have ample time- if the will was there. They’re still stuck at “wanting to leave” but keep all the benefits and suffer no pain or inconvenience. Neither tally with “leave means leave”!

joseywhales

They will never leave, its all just an excercise in bloodletting, if noone actually wants to leave including most of parlament, they will contrive any possible way not to leave including a deal where they don't really leave, their collective subconscious won't allow it.

If they had a referendum where they asked if all of parlaiment should commit suicide it would pass and probably be better for the country and finally satisfy the electorate.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Liam Fox has come out and said that Brexit has only a 50% chance of happening if May's deal is rejected. From the BBC:

I don't know what he expects to happen. Everyone hates the deal. The Christmas break won't change that. The hardcore Brexiteers have already shown their disdain for the people of this country and there's no reason to believe that this has changed.

I take it Fox is trying to say to fellow Brexiteers that if they do not take the WA on offer, there is a high chance Brexit will be cancelled, either by HOC or by a second referendum, and any other option, like a threat of a crash out could get the whole Brexit mess canned.

He is also concerned that a GE could result in Corbyn getting into No 10.

ancapailldorcha

Liam Fox has come out and said that Brexit has only a 50% chance of happening if May's deal is rejected. From the BBC:

Senior Brexiteer minister Liam Fox says there is a 50-50 chance the UK will not leave the EU on 29 March if MPs reject Theresa May's Brexit deal next month.

The international trade secretary told the Sunday Times it would only be "100% certain" if MPs back the deal.

He said if the deal is rejected, that "would shatter the bond of trust between the electorate and Parliament".

MPs are due to vote on the withdrawal agreement in January, with the UK scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March.

The agreement negotiated by Mrs May with the EU - which sets the terms of the UK's exit and a declaration on future relations - will only come into force with a majority backing in Parliament.

The Commons vote was due to be held on 11 December but the PM postponed it once it became clear it would be defeated by a large margin.

I don't know what he expects to happen. Everyone hates the deal. The Christmas break won't change that. The hardcore Brexiteers have already shown their disdain for the people of this country and there's no reason to believe that this has changed.

road_high

Latest headlines I’m reading is that they may now extend the leave date...! Will they ever actually leave?

mickoneill31

Leroy42 wrote: »

Have they discussed this with the EU I wonder?

Doesn't read like it, but I would assume that they are aware that it not simply up to them.

Doubtful. Corbyn was saying earlier on this month that he'd delay Brexit to renegotiate the deal. That's another unicorn.
He seems to be saying and doing the minimum so when it goes tits up he can say "well they didn't do my plan which would have avoided this"

Hurrache

Interest take on what the British government are at
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1079159383123247106?s=19

Strazdas

That Dr. North guy over at the eureferendum site seems to be showing his true colours at last : demanding that Brexit be implemented no matter what the consequences, even if it means No Deal, saying a second referendum would be sacrilege and that Parliament has no right to do anything that would interfere with implementation of the referendum result.

I've always had my suspicions he is a hardcore Brexiteer and Europhobe.

Water John

Yes, whilst we know already such talks with the EU have taken place, the article does state that these have taken place, or did I read a different article.

'Brussels has made clear that it would consider putting back the date of Brexit for a good reason, but has stressed that this could not mean reopening negotiations. The EU would be willing to allow extra time for a second referendum to take place.' Quote.

Leroy42

Have they discussed this with the EU I wonder?

Doesn't read like it, but I would assume that they are aware that it not simply up to them.

And July. So what happens with the EU elections and the budget?

Water John

Basically if TM's Deal doesn't get the votes a Ref looks likely. The EU would need ' a significant move' to accede to an extension. Of course a Deal that incl staying in CU and SM would qualify too.

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Can the deadline date be delayed?

In theory, but it would need some big breakthrough on the British side. Saying "Give us a few more months so we can keep on arguing with ourselves" would be given short shrift.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

Good to hear thought and discussion has been put into avoiding a Crash out Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/29/cross-party-stop-the-clock-hard-brexit-no-deal-29-march

Senior Tory and Labour MPs are planning to force the government to delay Brexit by several months to avoid a no-deal outcome if Theresa May fails to get her deal through parliament in January, the Observer has been told.

Cross-party talks have been under way for several weeks to ensure the 29 March date is put back – probably until July at the latest – if the government does not push for a delay itself. It is also understood that cabinet ministers have discussed the option of a delay with senior backbench MPs in both the main parties and that Downing Street is considering scenarios in which a delay might have to be requested from Brussels.

One senior Tory backbencher said: “I have had these discussions with ministers. They will not say so in public but of course the option of a delay has to be looked at in detail now. If we are determined to avoid a no deal, and the prime minister’s deal fails, we will have to ask to stop the clock, and that will give time for us to decide to go whatever way we decide thereafter.”

I think the British side would have to come up with something concrete in order to halt the March 29th exit date (ie. it would have to be something dramatic like the announcement of a second referendum or a general election).

Halting the exit date for the sake of halting the exit date would probably be dismissed by the EU. They've had nearly three years to sort out the Brexit shambles and have gotten virtually nowhere.

Nody

Water John wrote: »

Good to hear thought and discussion has been put into avoiding a Crash out Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/29/cross-party-stop-the-clock-hard-brexit-no-deal-29-march

Senior Tory and Labour MPs are planning to force the government to delay Brexit by several months to avoid a no-deal outcome if Theresa May fails to get her deal through parliament in January, the Observer has been told.

Cross-party talks have been under way for several weeks to ensure the 29 March date is put back – probably until July at the latest – if the government does not push for a delay itself. It is also understood that cabinet ministers have discussed the option of a delay with senior backbench MPs in both the main parties and that Downing Street is considering scenarios in which a delay might have to be requested from Brussels.

One senior Tory backbencher said: “I have had these discussions with ministers. They will not say so in public but of course the option of a delay has to be looked at in detail now. If we are determined to avoid a no deal, and the prime minister’s deal fails, we will have to ask to stop the clock, and that will give time for us to decide to go whatever way we decide thereafter.”

Great; more UK internal debates with the assumption that EU will do whatever UK decides. At least some of the politicans do however have picked up on the minor details such as "no further negotiation" and "new referendum" being requirements but I doubt most will get that far.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Can the deadline date be delayed?

Yes but only if UK requests it and all EU27 vote to agree to the extension. EU's position is basically only way for extension is to allow a referendum or possibly a tighter deal (i.e. drop May's red lines and go for a Norway style deal) even though not stated (no renegotiation of existing deal possible) by proof of significant change basically. Gut feeling is EU would probably allow extension simply to allow Ireland, Belgium etc. shore things up further but that's for EU's benefits and not UKs benefit.

Seth Brundle

Can the deadline date be delayed?

Water John

Good to hear thought and discussion has been put into avoiding a Crash out Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/29/cross-party-stop-the-clock-hard-brexit-no-deal-29-march

Senior Tory and Labour MPs are planning to force the government to delay Brexit by several months to avoid a no-deal outcome if Theresa May fails to get her deal through parliament in January, the Observer has been told.

Cross-party talks have been under way for several weeks to ensure the 29 March date is put back – probably until July at the latest – if the government does not push for a delay itself. It is also understood that cabinet ministers have discussed the option of a delay with senior backbench MPs in both the main parties and that Downing Street is considering scenarios in which a delay might have to be requested from Brussels.

One senior Tory backbencher said: “I have had these discussions with ministers. They will not say so in public but of course the option of a delay has to be looked at in detail now. If we are determined to avoid a no deal, and the prime minister’s deal fails, we will have to ask to stop the clock, and that will give time for us to decide to go whatever way we decide thereafter.”

dr.fuzzenstein

CelticRambler wrote: »

Nothing about Brexit is causing huge controversy in the UK. Ordinary Joe goes willingly to his doom ...

It is a game of "stop hitting yourself" where the other side really is doing it all themselves.

CelticRambler

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm surprised this isn't causing huge controversy in the UK.

Nothing about Brexit is causing huge controversy in the UK. Ordinary Joe goes willingly to his doom ...

Nody

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Have you ever heard of quotas? They are one of the parts of the WTO schedules and have been divided between the EU and UK so apart from anything else, much of UK agriculture can be protected in this way so in many cases all that will be happening is that goods will be bought from the rest of the world rather than from the EU.

Oh you mean the qoutas UK submitted with EUROs in the surcharges? The same qoutas that already have over 20 countries objecting to them inc. Russia filing an official complaint stopping the process? You know the qoutas which will not be valid unless every WTO country agrees to them; are those the qoutas you are talking about? Because I only want to make sure we're talking about the same qoutas here seeing of how UK so far has made a complete and utter failure in their attempt to submit and get them approved after all. You know; the whole take back control while giving 163 countries the right to veto what UK wants etc.

On separate news UK government has offered up juicy ferry contracts around Christmas snapped up by EU ferry companies to offer more volume going over. It's always nice of the UK government to help fund the EU business in such a way esp. as it will do nothing to fix the issue of returning trucks (that are not empty). A commentator (Lucrecia) on the Indy article summed it up nicely:

In a blistering wave of genius Britain changes tack and decides to stop punching itself in the face and kicks itself in the nuts instead. And the amazing thing is it pays European companies for the pleasure.

Strazdas

EdgeCase wrote: »

The situation with citizens' rights is actually far more complex than the British media seems to think. For a start, there's actually no point in trying negotiate this with the EU as it does not have any role in the matter for citizens of 3rd countries (other than the EEA members and CH which have special status within the EU systems).

Also, ripping up long standing immigration agreements going back decades with neighbouring countries seems an extremely retrograde action.

I'm surprised this isn't causing huge controversy in the UK. By any criteria, it is a hostile gesture towards former friends and neighbours. If Ireland announced tomorrow it was ending the CTA, how would that be interpreted in Britain?

Sam Russell

murphaph wrote: »

The UK leaves the EU in three months. There is no time to negotiate a FTA with anyone. This means the UK is on most favoured nation terms immediately. That means the UK cannot discriminate against the EU or anyone else. The same tariffs has to be applied to the same types of goods regardless of origin.

The UK will have to drop tariffs to very low levels to prevent food price inflation. It's a totally vicious circle.

Or agree to the WA, or rescind Art 50.

Their choice.

murphaph

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Have you ever heard of quotas? They are one of the parts of the WTO schedules and have been divided between the EU and UK so apart from anything else, much of UK agriculture can be protected in this way so in many cases all that will be happening is that goods will be bought from the rest of the world rather than from the EU.

The UK leaves the EU in three months. There is no time to negotiate a FTA with anyone. This means the UK is on most favoured nation terms immediately. That means the UK cannot discriminate against the EU or anyone else. The same tariffs has to be applied to the same types of goods regardless of origin.

The UK will have to drop tariffs to very low levels to prevent food price inflation. It's a totally vicious circle.

Christy42

cml387 wrote: »

France have offered a similar guarantee.

Didn't all EU countries agree to this when they made the no deal plans. The one were London can keep the derivatives trading and whatever had this as a part of it. I think that was agreed by all EU countries.

EdgeCase

The situation with citizens' rights is actually far more complex than the British media seems to think. For a start, there's actually no point in trying negotiate this with the EU as it does not have any role in the matter for citizens of 3rd countries (other than the EEA members and CH which have special status within the EU systems).

In a scenario where there's a hard Brexit, UK citizens in the EU are subject to each of the 27 members national immigration laws. So, basically it could mean that UK nationals might have absolute rights to residency in Ireland, no particular fuss in Spain but might need to apply for a visa in say.. Poland or Germany.

They would be entitled to apply for Schengen visas, but they are not long term residency permits.
Schengen Visas only cover short stay (up to 90 day) scenarios. They've never covered immigration.

Basically, once UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, the EU's role in their freedom of movement ends.

You also have a problem where by a UK citizen might get a permit to live in France, but that does not mean they could then move to Spain or Germany. You're back to non-EU systems at national level.

It's likely that a 90 day visa waiver will be negotiated with most of the 27 member states, but beyond that nobody knows and it would very much depend on how nationals of those countries are treated by the UK.

Given the hostility towards central and eastern Europe in the rhetoric from Brexiteers, I could see some of it becoming problematic.

cml387

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Seriously ?

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-spain-pm-pedro-sanchez-eu-settlement-scheme-video/

France have offered a similar guarantee.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Have you ever heard of quotas? They are one of the parts of the WTO schedules and have been divided between the EU and UK so apart from anything else, much of UK agriculture can be protected in this way so in many cases all that will be happening is that goods will be bought from the rest of the world rather than from the EU.

The problem for Oz and NZ is that the continentals pay a premium relative to what the UK pays for the same product. The name of the game was to move the UK imports to the rest of the EU.

Splitting the quota means less profit for NZ and Oz because the UK quota can't be moved anymore. Something they'll bring up in any new FTA's.

NI farmers get most of their income from the EU, similar in the rest of the UK. Grove has already said continued govt subsidies will depend on farms going green or some such moving goal post.

I can't see any good news on the horizon for UK farming.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

And I don't think reciprocal arrangements have been offered by many EU countries.

Seriously ?

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-spain-pm-pedro-sanchez-eu-settlement-scheme-video/

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said the rights of the 300,000 British people living in Spain would be secured even in the case of a no deal Brexit as long as the same was offered to Spanish people in the United Kingdom.