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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Seth Brundle

Just as a heads up to those interested in Brexit, there is a drama scheduled on Channel 4 on Jan 7th starting Benedict Cumberbach.

The summary line is "Strategist Dominic Cummings leads a campaign to convince British voters to leave the European Union."

https://youtu.be/h-YM8FnWZAU

Thargor

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just as a heads up to those interested in Brexit, there is a drama scheduled on Channel 4 on Jan 7th starting Benedict Cumberbach.

The summary line is "Strategist Dominic Cummings leads a campaign to convince British voters to leave the European Union."

https://youtu.be/h-YM8FnWZAU[url][/url]

Yeah will be interesting to see the reviews of this, and the inevitable revelations about its funding if its as generous to the protagonist as it sounds, not really the done thing to make a made for tv drama portraying someone as a hero when they're currently under criminal investigation for those same "heroics".

Thargor

Wow who could have predicted such a thing?

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1078583774533902336

prawnsambo

John Redwood just got himself a knighthood. I'm sure he always hankered after one. Wonder what the price was.

Bit cynical

road_high wrote: »

They have tons of cheap dairy, beef and sheep to export- hardly a secret is it? It’ll be soon very quantifiable indeed if the uk are as desperate for a trade deal with all and sundry as they are indicating

I thought the big worry was that the UK would not have enough food as the UK is a net importer of food. Now the big worry is that they will have a glut of food.

tuxy

Bit cynical wrote: »

I thought the big worry was that the UK would not have enough food as the UK is a net importer of food. Now the big worry is that they will have a glut of food.

He's talking about Australia who are a net exporter of food wanting a trade deal with the UK after Brexit and how Australia will have the upper hand in that deal. The problem for the UK is they may not have a significant amount of exports that Australia want.

Bit cynical

tuxy wrote: »

He's talking about Australia who are a net exporter of food wanting a trade deal with the UK after Brexit and how Australia will have the upper hand in that deal. The problem for the UK is they may not have a significant amount of exports that Australia want.

Sure, so the earlier worry that the UK would not have food to eat due to it being a net importer of food was not warranted (at least in the case of Australian food exports).

tuxy

Yes but the point was that they currently have single market access with the EU so they can sell large quantities of goods while buying all the food they need. Australia could offer loads of food to them while still making it difficult for them to sell exports. They won't starve but the worry is that Australia and other countries would take advantage of the problems caused by brexit.

Bit cynical

tuxy wrote: »

Yes but the point was that they currently have single market access with the EU so they can sell large quantities of goods while buying all the food they need. Australia could offer loads of food to them while still making it difficult for them to sell exports. They won't starve but the worry is that Australia and other countries would take advantage of the problems caused by brexit.

Yes, that is the point now. But earlier the worry was expressed that one of the big problems was that the UK importing sufficent food. This worry is now unwaranted apparently.

fash

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yes, that is the point now. But earlier the worry was expressed that one of the big problems was that the UK importing sufficent food. This worry is now unwaranted apparently.

I believe the worry on importing food relates to logistics: the UK food delivery system relies upon JIT food delivery and has no capacity to respond to the Customs and checking requirements imposed by a no deal brexit. That is only a short/medium term problem.

The second problem is that by dropping tariffs barriers, the UK will destroy its own limited food production capacity making it entirely dependent on foreign food sources- which puts it in a very weak position if there is ever an international crisis affecting food supply.

Other than those, there is no problem with food supply with brexit. (Quality of that supply may be a further headache though).

tuxy

Yes, I was just about to say no sane person was speculating that the UK would starve. But the disruption of the just in time food and medicine supply chains would have very serious consequences.

Bit cynical

fash wrote: »

I believe the worry on importing food relates to logistics: the UK food delivery system relies upon JIT food delivery and has no capacity to respond to the Customs and checking requirements imposed by a no deal brexit. That is only a short/medium term problem.

The second problem is that by dropping tariffs barriers, the UK will destroy its own limited food production capacity making it entirely dependent on foreign food sources- which puts it in a very weak position if there is ever an international crisis affecting food supply.

Other than those, there is no problem with food supply with brexit. (Quality of that supply may be a further headache though).

The logistics issue is a worry, but as you say, a short/medium term problem.

On the longer term issue, I don't think a possible deal with Australia, for example, is enough to destroy their own food industry. Australia (and New Zealand) also supply a lot of Asian countries so don't have the capacity to flood the UK market.

Other foreign suppliers will still have transport and refrigeration costs to contend with and many suppliers will still be in countries without a trade deal so tarrifs will still apply as they do now.

murphaph

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yes, that is the point now. But earlier the worry was expressed that one of the big problems was that the UK importing sufficent food. This worry is now unwaranted apparently.

You are oversimplifying things. If the UK is forced to throw the doors open to cheap food, its own agriculture sector will be wiped out overnight as it cannot compete on price.

It also depends on what sort of food. Do you really expect a head of Australian lettuce to survive the journey as well as one from Spain?

Countries trade with neighbours for a reason: it's cheaper to transport goods over shorter distances. The consumer is used to fresh food these days, not stuff pickled in the colonies and shipped home in a windjammer.

In the event of a no deal Brexit in 3 months the UK will face food shortages in anything they normally import from the continent.

Igotadose

First Gatwick airport sold to the French. Now, 108 million sterling spent on additional ferrys in contracts with France, Denmark and Seaborne (UK ferry service).

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1229/1019448-brexit-ferries/

LeinsterDub

Isn't the point that it's actually both? The UK will have a glut of certain foods and a shortage of others as the transportation network breaks down?

Sam Russell

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Isn't the point that it's actually both? The UK will have a glut of certain foods and a shortage of others as the transportation network breaks down?

As will we.

Frozen chips for the Irish market are made in the UK because we do not grow Maris Piper potatoes, favouring Roosters. In time, we will become much less dependent on processed food which is currently imported from the UK.

While we have Tesco and the like, they will find it easier to import such foods into Ireland, but if there are significant import regulations and tariffs then they might change their supply arrangements. Aldi and Lidl will be more likely to use their German origins and import from Europe.

BonnieSituation

Igotadose wrote: »

First Gatwick airport sold to the French. Now, 108 million sterling spent on additional ferrys in contracts with France, Denmark and Seaborne (UK ferry service).

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1229/1019448-brexit-ferries/

How has no one in the UK civil service gone "lads this is ****ing mental"...

I know they have... But how is this now a rational approach to a self inflicted nonsense?

Eugh.

ancapailldorcha

I'd be lying if I expected something positive to happen over the holidays but even expecting nothing, I was disappointed. What exactly is the objective of this £65? Is it a cash grab? Migrants already have to register for National Insurance so it's not a case of registering the previously unregistered. It seems like the sort of thing that the prospect of appearing callous might have prevented the Tory party from doing this before no longer impedes them.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd be lying if I expected something positive to happen over the holidays but even expecting nothing, I was disappointed. What exactly is the objective of this £65? Is it a cash grab? Migrants already have to register for National Insurance so it's not a case of registering the previously unregistered. It seems like the sort of thing that the prospect of appearing callous might have prevented the Tory party from doing this before no longer impedes them.

If they sent out vans with information on the side telling immigrants to go home or face arrest it can be taken as a given that they are no longer concerned about how they are perceived.

In fact, they are probably playing to a particular part of the electorate to strengthen their argument that they are acting. This tweet certainly shows that they are doing something to prepare for Brexit, it just so happens to be something many are repulsed by.

ancapailldorcha

Tell me how wrote: »

If they sent out vans with information on the side telling immigrants to go home or face arrest it can be taken as a given that they are no longer concerned about how they are perceived.

In fact, they are probably playing to a particular part of the electorate to strengthen their argument that they are acting. This tweet certainly shows that they are doing something to prepare for Brexit, it just so happens to be something many are repulsed by.

It looks like it'll cost more to administer than anything else. The parts of the electorate that will respond to this positively aren't the parts which will show growth in votes.

Igotadose

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd be lying if I expected something positive to happen over the holidays but even expecting nothing, I was disappointed. .

So little time left till Brexit and the politicians are off doing whatever. Like they earned an Xmas break? Corbyn's correct, bring them back to work early (Corby and correct is a very rare combination.)

Tell me how

Igotadose wrote: »

So little time left till Brexit and the politicians are off doing whatever. Like they earned an Xmas break? Corbyn's correct, bring them back to work early (Corby and correct is a very rare combination.)

So rare it isn't believable.
He suggested this knowing that there wouldn't be an appetite for it on any side of the house. His usual MO of appearing righteous when it is meaningless.

ArmaniJeanss

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd be lying if I expected something positive to happen over the holidays but even expecting nothing, I was disappointed. What exactly is the objective of this £65? Is it a cash grab? Migrants already have to register for National Insurance so it's not a case of registering the previously unregistered. It seems like the sort of thing that the prospect of appearing callous might have prevented the Tory party from doing this before no longer impedes them.

I'm guessing there'll be a few thousand not registered who'll be potential Windrushes.
Not dodgy Eastern European cash-in-hand plumbers of tabloid infamy, but that nice Mrs Schmidt down the road who came over in '89, married a local man and had 4 kids but because hubby was working she never bothered getting a NI number. All the bills in his name as well so absolutely no way of proving she's been here 29 years.

joseywhales

Sam Russell wrote: »

As will we.

Frozen chips for the Irish market are made in the UK because we do not grow Maris Piper potatoes, favouring Roosters. In time, we will become much less dependent on processed food which is currently imported from the UK.

While we have Tesco and the like, they will find it easier to import such foods into Ireland, but if there are significant import regulations and tariffs then they might change their supply arrangements. Aldi and Lidl will be more likely to use their German origins and import from Europe.

Brexit inadvertently saving the health of the nation, silver linings!

People will have to learn how to cook, god forbid.

CelticRambler

The Brits are paying the French to print their new Blue Passports; they're paying the French to process residents' permits; they're paying the French for their nuclear electricity; the French have just bought Gatwick; and now the Brits are paying the French to ferry them across the Channel.

Never mind turning the clocks back to the Imperial Britain of the 1800s - it's starting to look like they really want to go all the way back to Norman times.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd be lying if I expected something positive to happen over the holidays but even expecting nothing, I was disappointed. What exactly is the objective of this £65? Is it a cash grab? Migrants already have to register for National Insurance so it's not a case of registering the previously unregistered. It seems like the sort of thing that the prospect of appearing callous might have prevented the Tory party from doing this before no longer impedes them.

There doesn't even seem to be any mandate for such harsh anti-immigration measures. Let's assume that say 5m or 8m British people are xenophobes or racists or whatever : that still only represents a minority of the population, so it's hard to work out just what May and the Tories are up to.

Alun

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'm guessing there'll be a few thousand not registered who'll be potential Windrushes.
Not dodgy Eastern European cash-in-hand plumbers of tabloid infamy, but that nice Mrs Schmidt down the road who came over in '89, married a local man and had 4 kids but because hubby was working she never bothered getting a NI number. All the bills in his name as well so absolutely no way of proving she's been here 29 years.

There are already loads of examples of exactly this happening to people just like that who have tried to establish their right to stay in advance of this initiative. The Guardian website is full of them.

ThePanjandrum

Tell me how wrote: »

If they sent out vans with information on the side telling immigrants to go home or face arrest it can be taken as a given that they are no longer concerned about how they are perceived.

Erm, those vans (which were years ago and probably never existed except as a photo-opportunity) were specifically aimed at illegal immigrants. Could you please explain to me why illegal immigrants should not be reminded that they have no right to be in a country and should leave?

And if you are complaining about the cost to EU citizens of applying for the right to permanent residency (which the Irish do not have to apply for) then ask yourself how much it costs to apply to become an Irish Citizen or even to renew your passport. National Insurance numbers do not bestow residency rights, by the way.

And I don't think reciprocal arrangements have been offered by many EU countries.

UsedToWait

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Erm, those vans (which were years ago and probably never existed except as a photo-opportunity)

It was 2013, and it was under the current Prime Minister's remit,

And the vans did exist - though I'm guessing you knew that already.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/26/theresa-may-go-home-vans-operation-vaken-ukip

ThePanjandrum

Bit cynical wrote: »

I thought the big worry was that the UK would not have enough food as the UK is a net importer of food. Now the big worry is that they will have a glut of food.

The UK is a big importer of beef and dairy, which will protect the Northern Irish supplies but a net exporter of lamb.
UK agriculture has been badly affected by EU membership.