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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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First Up

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

what about the 25,000 rifles and millions of bullets the Ulster Volunteers got from Germany

Except they didn't use them against the British Army, or offer Germany a back door to attack Britain.

Jim2007

First Up wrote: »

The irony is that the 1916 leaders were not executed for having the impertince to challenge British rule. They were executed for collaborating with Germany half way through the First World War.

So the idea of brave little Ireland battling alone doesn't stand up to scrutiny then any more than it does now.

That is entirely your projection and I certainly have never heard it held out as ‘as brave little Ireland’ doing anything.... and since this has nothing to do with the current to topic this where it ends.

Strazdas

First Up wrote: »

Yes, the open declaration of alliance with Germany had nothing at all to do with it

No, "treason" didn't come into it. Anyone in Dublin participating in or facilitating the Rising was deemed to have committed a serious offence under martial law and could be executed or imprisoned. Around 2000 men were subsequently imprisoned (telling us that treason wasn't the reason for them being locked up).

First Up

Jim2007 wrote:

That is entirely your projection and I certainly have never heard it held out as â€˜as brave little Irelandâ€™ doing anything.... and since this has nothing to do with the current to topic this where it ends.

You only understand something when you take the trouble to undestand the context. That applies to Irish history as much to a discussion on Boards.

blanch152

Calina wrote: »

The world in 1916 was very different to what it is now.

People who think we should all be governed by what they project a bunch of martyrs who were executed 100 plus years ago would do need to start dealing with that reality. They are not some sort of demigods whose will needs to impose for alm time.

A metric tonne of countries got independence in 1918. We are not special snowflakes and Pearse was one man. He was not Jesus.

But either way they were men of their times. We are people of ours. You are no different to any little Englander if you hark back constantly to 1916. You should give up your computer if you do. You do not get to cherry pick and you do not know what the 1916 cohort would have done. I am disgusted by people who exploit their deaths and memoried to project their own political objectives. Humanity evolves and the EU is far better for Ireland than either isolation or the acts of union.

An interesting analogy between little Englanders harkening back to the days of Empire and the 1916 republicans who recite the Proclamation by heart.

Time moves on and people need to move on with it.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Don't want to divert the thread, but 'powerless'ness doesn't also require you to be silent. And it can never happen again or we will be quickly back to a conflict that will be hard to stop.
As I said, if Brexit goes ahead without northern Ireland receiving special status, DUP/Loyalist triumphalism will be deeply divisive.

The biggest silence is if you don't make your voice heard within the democratic institutions, be they in Stormont or London.

prinzeugen

blanch152 wrote: »

An interesting analogy between little Englanders harkening back to the days of Empire and the 1916 republicans who recite the Proclamation by heart.

Time moves on and people need to move on with it.

Except the French. People go on about "Little Englanders" and "Empire" but the French still have the biggest notions of being a world power.

Non, non, non stop. Thinking they are important. Very, very reluctant to give up its colonies also.

Sam Russell

prinzeugen wrote: »

Except the French. People go on about "Little Englanders" and "Empire" but the French still have the biggest notions of being a world power.

Non, non, non stop. Thinking they are important. Very, very reluctant to give up its colonies also.

Actually, you might find it is the other way round.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/new-caledonia-votes-against-independence-from-france-1.3685945

The South Pacific archipelago of New Caledonia voted against independence from France on Sunday in a long-awaited referendum that capped a 30-year-long decolonisation process.

A “Yes” vote would have deprived Paris of a foothold in the Indo-Pacific region where China is expanding its presence, and dented the pride of a former colonial power whose reach once spanned the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacific Ocean.

Based on provisional results and with a participation rate of nearly 80 per cent, the “No” vote stood at 56.9 per cent by about 1pm GMT, local TV station NC la 1ère reported on its website.

“The New Caledonians have chosen to remain French . . . It is a vote of confidence in the French republic, its future and its values,” president Emmanuel Macron said in a speech on French television.

Anthracite

prinzeugen wrote: »

Except the French. People go on about "Little Englanders" and "Empire" but the French still have the biggest notions of being a world power.

Non, non, non stop. Thinking they are important. Very, very reluctant to give up its colonies also.

Or rather the colonies, which are regarded as a part of France, with the full rights and privileges, are very reluctant to leave France.

FrancieBrady

The trouble with colonies is that they tend to disintegrate if the colonist doesn't care about those who live there or more cynically, has no strategic interest there, which at least, keeps them on their toes regarding harmony and the happiness of the natives.
One of the lucky (if that is the right word)things here is that we know from recent memory the ingredients for conflict. And to be fair to the current government and some in the UK, they seem to be rightfully careful not create those.
We can dispute who changed FG's mind on 'special status' for northern Ireland, the good thing is that they are now actively looking for it to avoid any of the ingredients emerging here.
So far the strategy of most of the other parties of the state in allowing the government to be the lead on this has worked very well.

[Deleted User]

blanch152 wrote: »

The biggest silence is if you don't make your voice heard within the democratic institutions, be they in Stormont or London.

The DUP couldn’t care less about Stormont at the minute. Their obsession with trying to seem important within the dynamics of Westminster power politics has caused massive damage to cross community relations in NI. Arlene Foster & co don’t seem to realise that moderate elements within Nationalism that were comfortable with the current status quo are horrified by Brexit and as a consequence are moving back towards a UI as a desirable outcome. Foster would be well advised to stop neglecting local politics if she wants to avoid further destabilising the situation in NI.

Havockk

blanch152 wrote: »

The biggest silence is if you don't make your voice heard within the democratic institutions, be they in Stormont or London.

Brexit has exposed the true powerless nature of devolved governments in NI/Scotland/Wales. In truth they have no power, or voice at the table and are and will always remain at the heel of what the English desire, as long as the Union remains intact.

Mr.Nice Guy

Very much enjoyed the SNP's Joanna Cherry responding to Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC's Any Questions programme.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1076392669205708800

Speaking of the BBC, interesting discussion on Radio 4 this past weekend from the Donegal/Derry border which is worth a listen:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0001l8p

Igotadose

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Very much enjoyed the SNP's Joanna Cherry responding to Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC's Any Questions programme.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1076392669205708800

I think she'd turn it down, but Joanna Cherry for PM! Rees Mogg... ugh what an awful speaker.

Nasty little right-wing project indeed. Not little is the problem, it's a big clusterfcuk.

prawnsambo

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I took a read thru several UK centric forums that less frequently visit.

The Brexiteers are all jubilant that the EU is softening and giving the UK more and more it wants after the announcement on flights, trucking and financials. A lot of "see the airplanes and trucks will continue to operate" and so on.

By this stage brexitism is starting to resemble a religion

It's been a religion for a long time now.

1st dalkey dalkey

The UK parliament passed the European Union (Withdrawal) Act in June 2018.

It sets the withdrawal date as 29/3/19 at 11pm.

A no deal Brexit is the default position, in law.

Failing either a Parliamentary approved deal or some change to the current law, a no deal Brexit goes ahead.

Given the state of the UK Parliament at the moment neither May's deal, nor any change in the current law is likely.

There is another deadline in that Act; " fixes 21 January 2019, at the latest, when the government must decide on how to proceed if the negotiations have not reached agreement in principle on both the withdrawal arrangements and the framework for the future relationship".

That's a little over 3 weeks. Not going to happen, folks.

The only way out now is for a rebellion by MP's from both the Tory and Labour parties who would then co-operate with the Lib Dems., SNP and PC to withdraw Art 50 and scrap the whole thing for now. Realistic? Probably not.

So, No Deal Brexit it probably is, with a hard border and disrupted supplies for months.

lawred2

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

The UK parliament passed the European Union (Withdrawal) Act in June 2018.

It sets the withdrawal date as 29/3/19 at 11pm.

A no deal Brexit is the default position, in law.

Failing either a Parliamentary approved deal or some change to the current law, a no deal Brexit goes ahead.

Given the state of the UK Parliament at the moment neither May's deal, nor any change in the current law is likely.

There is another deadline in that Act; " fixes 21 January 2019, at the latest, when the government must decide on how to proceed if the negotiations have not reached agreement in principle on both the withdrawal arrangements and the framework for the future relationship".

That's a little over 3 weeks. Not going to happen, folks.

The only way out now is for a rebellion by MP's from both the Tory and Labour parties who would then co-operate with the Lib Dems., SNP and PC to withdraw Art 50 and scrap the whole thing for now. Realistic? Probably not.

So, No Deal Brexit it probably is, with a hard border and disrupted supplies for months.

you'd think it'd make sense to hedge your bets and not pass such legislation until after a withdrawal agreement made it through parliament

WomanSkirtFan8

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Very much enjoyed the SNP's Joanna Cherry responding to Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC's Any Questions programme.

Agreed. I just listened to that and she hit the nail absolutely on the head there. The peace in Northern Ireland is more important that this extremely shambolic vanity project that is brexit.

Well done Joanna Cherry. Put Mogg right in his place. Just wish there were more people/politicians in the UK that would do something like that.;)

J Mysterio

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Very much enjoyed the SNP's Joanna Cherry responding to Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC's Any Questions programme.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1076392669205708800

Most surprised by the audience reaction!

lawred2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Most surprised by the audience reaction!

Depends where that debate was

[Deleted User]

Oh I like her:D

Mr Mogg has few friends in that crowd.

1st dalkey dalkey

lawred2 wrote: »

you'd think it'd make sense to hedge your bets and not pass such legislation until after a withdrawal agreement made it through parliament

Indeed it would.

But this is May's government. The same one that delivered the Art 50 notification before knowing anything about Brexit and what it actually meant. So no real surprise there.

As politicians like to say, we are where we are. Add in Trump and the market reaction to his 'presidency' over the last few weeks and next year is looking like "interesting times", as the Chinese might say.

A Dub in Glasgo

lawred2 wrote: »

Depends where that debate was

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06wch9v

Jonathan Dimbleby presents topical debate from St John's Wood Church in London

ThePanjandrum

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Very much enjoyed the SNP's Joanna Cherry responding to Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC's Any Questions programme.

Agreed. I just listened to that and she hit the nail absolutely on the head there. The peace in Northern Ireland is more important that this extremely shambolic vanity project that is brexit.

Well done Joanna Cherry. Put Mogg right in his place. Just wish there were more people/politicians in the UK that would do something like that.;)

Nevertheless, the Moggster is in the right. The various supposed difficulties of the border are EU confections designed to give it more negotiating power with the simple-minded May and her Remainer chums.

It works because they don't challenge it.

johnnyskeleton

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Nevertheless, the Moggster is in the right. The various supposed difficulties of the border are EU confections designed to give it more negotiating power with the simple-minded May and her Remainer chums.

It works because they don't challenge it.

What part exactly is he right about? Leaving aside the fact that he referred to an Irish Prime Minister, which we don't have, he suggested that the Taoiseach said something that he didn't say, and ultimately his plan for Northern Ireland is to simply not have any border. So people can fly to Dublin and take the train up to Belfast, then over to Scotland and they have illegally entered the UK without anyone stopping them. Moreover, goods which under the new Brextied Britain should have customs paid at the border will not be paid because Mogg has suggested that they simply ignore it and then it is not a problem.

All that is fine, but it makes a bit of a mockery of the Brexit slogan to take back control of their borders!

Sam Russell

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Nevertheless, the Moggster is in the right. The various supposed difficulties of the border are EU confections designed to give it more negotiating power with the simple-minded May and her Remainer chums.

It works because they don't challenge it.

There are 300 crossings on that border, with some stretches passing through houses. The real solution is a UI, but that comes with other problems, not unrelated to the existing border if it becomes a hard border.

The GFA was founded on the fact that both sides were in the SM, and only if that continues will there be no problem. Anything that causes a deviation from SM both sides of the border is asking for trouble.

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Nevertheless, the Moggster is in the right. The various supposed difficulties of the border are EU confections designed to give it more negotiating power with the simple-minded May and her Remainer chums.

It works because they don't challenge it.

The EU wouldn't need to stage manage or artificially create problems in the negotiations though (as the ERG crowd and their press buddies claim). They can set up whatever red lines they like in the negotiations : nobody in Europe or anywhere else would give a toss whether Brexit Britain is being treated fairly or not, the current regime and its media are friendless in the world.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Nevertheless, the Moggster is in the right. The various supposed difficulties of the border are EU confections designed to give it more negotiating power with the simple-minded May and her Remainer chums.

It works because they don't challenge it.

Skipping gaily past the elephant in the room which is May, the UK generally and everyone who campaigned for Leave saying that there will be no problem with the border or the GFA. So much so, that they even put it on the statute books. But the EU done it to tie us up in knots says JRM, because something, something, uppity paddies.

Spanish Eyes

I don't think Ireland (ROI) is that interested in a UI right now. Imagine taking that lot on board.

Anyway, not long to go now. I will place a bet that a No Deal will not happen. But if I am wrong, there are certainly a lot of people in the UK Government willing and able to destroy their country for a mess of hubris.

BonnieSituation

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't think Ireland (ROI) is that interested in a UI right now. Imagine taking that lot on board.

You obviously asked all of us here in the "ROI" what we think of "that lot" and how interested we are in a UI.