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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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listermint

EdgeCase wrote: »

Yeah, it's largely that they're trying to align themselves with what they see as a largely working class and what should be a traditional labour vote.

Much like the democrats have lost blue-collar voters to Trump, there is a large fear in Labour of losing because of being too close to a policy that's seen as Blairite. That's why Tony Blair's intervention is very counterproductive, unlike John Major who isn't a divisive figure.

I think you're into perfect storm scenarios in the UK on a whole load of issues that are pushing it towsrds a crash out. All sorts of odd political issues are lining up against undoing Brexit, even if there might be a majority in favour of a very soft exit from the EU, I think you'll see a crash out due to political paralysis.

Ya blairite a period when working class people enjoyed a huge amount of economic growth and a boom in wages and quality of life.

Perplexing whatever about the whole Iraq war stuff the country was flying then.

EdgeCase

Yeah, it's largely that they're trying to align themselves with what they see as a largely working class and what should be a traditional labour vote.

Much like the democrats have lost blue-collar voters to Trump, there is a large fear in Labour of losing because of being too close to a policy that's seen as Blairite. That's why Tony Blair's intervention is very counterproductive, unlike John Major who isn't a divisive figure.

I think you're into perfect storm scenarios in the UK on a whole load of issues that are pushing it towsrds a crash out. All sorts of odd political issues are lining up against undoing Brexit, even if there might be a majority in favour of a very soft exit from the EU, I think you'll see a crash out due to political paralysis.

Keatsian

Strazdas wrote: »

Corbyn, the hard Brexiteer. Just when you thought things couldn't get any more ridiculous :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu

There is nothing there that suggests he's a hard Brexiter. From what I've read, Labour supporters are mostly Remainers, but the party's internal polling suggests that adopting a no Brexit position will cost it seats in a general election.

Right now, should May wobble on Brexit and seek to extend or even withdraw the article 50 notification, ERG types - eager to frustrate the business of government while running the clock down until March 29th - have the nuclear option of backing a no confidence motion and triggering a general election, which they might favour over allowing May to buy more time from the EU. Similarly, the DUP might decide to turn on her (and Corbyn has been making overtures to it with talk of a deal that requires no border in the Irish Sea). If a general election comes to pass, Labour won't want to have provoked the pro-Brexit press and alienated leave voters by backing a new referendum.

Should Labour secure power before March 29th, I fully expect Corbyn would seek an extension of A50 with a promise to the EU that he will want a softer Brexit, and then Remainers can pressure him to permit a second referendum. Right now, it makes sense to insist that Labour will "respect the referendum" result, but oppose May's deal and claim it can deliver a better one, while remaining agnostic on a new peoples' vote. You can't lead the country from the opposition benches, and Labour can leave grappling with the contradictions of Brexit to a time when it is in power.

Russman

It’s almost incredible that it looks like a majority of halfway sane MPs are going to allow their country be driven off the cliff by the hard core of the ERG on one side and Corbyn on the other. Surely this paralysis will stop at some point - or will it take the sight of tailbacks at Dover and shortages of essentials to give them some backbone to shout stop ?

Charles Babbage

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

They'll use drones, no worries.

I would say a drone over Cullyhanna would not last as long as one over Gatwick.

briany

EdgeCase wrote: »

I think you're all forgetting that May seems to want to cling to power. It would take an awful lot to get her to just resign because the deal gets voted down.

I think you'd have to have a proper motion of no confidence by the House and even then because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act there's no guarantee that it would necessarily lead to fresh elections.

People say May's desperate to cling on to power but I don't think she's into power for power's sake. I don't think most politicians are because they show themselves to be gladly willing to relinquish their positions if their power puts them at the center of a big enough sh*t show.

At the point that May's deal fails, she could reach the point where it's evident that she cannot impress her vision of Brexit, and a relatively soft landing, upon her parliamentary colleagues. At that point, she's looking down the barrel of presiding over the single biggest sh*t showing in recent British history, and is little more than a patsy for Brexit's true architects to simultaneously harangue and hide beyond. The only reason not to pull the ripcord then is out of a feeling of duty to Queen and Country, but with so many British MPs currently in dereliction of that, I don't think anyone would truly notice one more.

EdgeCase

I think you're all forgetting that May seems to want to cling to power. It would take an awful lot to get her to just resign because the deal gets voted down.

I think you'd have to have a proper motion of no confidence by the House and even then because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act there's no guarantee that it would necessarily lead to fresh elections.

bob mcbob

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Corbyn sticking to his guns regarding Brexit.

Ideally he would win an election and go back and get a better deal.

You have to look at this in the light of the Scottish Indy ref in 2014. Labour campaigned against a lot of their natural supporters and were destroyed in the next election.

While I am no fan of Corbyn, I would do exactly the same, promise all things to all men, with no commitments and let the Tories fight out their civil war.

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is why I don't see a 2nd ref happening.

Just who is going to lead and support it? The Tories, as a party can't. Labour seem totally opposed. They are not going to work together.

The SNP and Lib Dems? No chance.

I'll just throw out a scenario.

May's vote fails in Jan.

May resigns. Government goes into meltdown. GE called.

Labour gains some seats, but not enough for a government by itself. Brings the SNP and the Lib Dems on board. Lib Dems want a second ref as a condition. SNP want an indy ref 2 as a condition. Corbyn argues them down to an indy ref if they back a second EU ref, and if that ref still results in the the UK leaving the EU.

The EU grants an extension to A50 in light of this development. The Labour coalition + some moderate Tory rebels back the required legislation.

The electorate of the UK vote to stay in the EU.

Bingo bango bongo.

Rjd2

I think what must be infuriating for a lot of Labour supporters, the base is much more receptive to a second referendum than Corbyn might think.

May is actually in a worse position than Jez, as she knows Brexit is a bad idea, but the majority of Tory voters support it. If she or any other Tory leader was to go for a second referendum and it lost they would be finished. Heck even someone like Rudd if somehow became leader would never suggest a second referendum.

Corbyn can still tackle the issues that made working class voters vote Brexit. I don't believe that for Labour Brexit voters that leaving is as important as it for Tories grassroots. Even if Jez could not smooth it over with Labour Leavers, the impact of that loss would be compensated by pro European brits voters who are aghast at his current stance.

Rjd2

Strazdas wrote: »

Corbyn is such a total liability that Labour would probably heavily lose a GE (incredible as that sounds).

Looks like we are back to seeing what it is that the Tories do next.

Labour no matter the next leader will probably win the next election just due to how stale and awful the Tories are.

The concern its not the cert it should be that Corbyn will lead the next government, I make it 60-40 that he will. It should be much more comfortable than that.

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is why I don't see a 2nd ref happening.

Just who is going to lead and support it? The Tories, as a party can't. Labour seem totally opposed. They are not going to work together.

The SNP and Lib Dems? No chance.

I think its a case of hoping that the polls get so crap for Labour that Corbyn is forced into backing it. Its possible, but he is shown no sign of backing down whatsoever. The likes of Blair been so prominent when it comes to chatter about a second referendum probably hardens his resolve.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is why I don't see a 2nd ref happening.

Just who is going to lead and support it? The Tories, as a party can't. Labour seem totally opposed. They are not going to work together.

The SNP and Lib Dems? No chance.

Corbyn is such a total liability that Labour would probably heavily lose a GE (incredible as that sounds).

Looks like we are back to seeing what it is that the Tories do next.

Leroy42

This is why I don't see a 2nd ref happening.

Just who is going to lead and support it? The Tories, as a party can't. Labour seem totally opposed. They are not going to work together.

The SNP and Lib Dems? No chance.

Strazdas

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

Christ.

The EU wouldn't give this clown five minutes if that's his position. His strategy is virtually identical to that of May's, meaning there would be nothing to be discussed.

Ronan|Raven

Strazdas wrote: »

Corbyn, the hard Brexiteer. Just when you thought things couldn't get any more ridiculous :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu

Christ.

Strazdas

Corbyn, the hard Brexiteer. Just when you thought things couldn't get any more ridiculous :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu

Rjd2

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Corbyn sticking to his guns regarding Brexit.

Ideally he would win an election and go back and get a better deal.

Borderhopper

seamus wrote: »

While a good half of the planet are leaving work with the intention of getting drunk, relaxing with family and forgetting about current affairs, the UK government has taken the opportunity to publish its healthcare plan in the event of a no-deal:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/brexit-operational-readiness-guidance-for-the-health-and-social-care-system-in-england

Choice section noted by a UK healthcare professional;

Loose lips sink ships, keep calm and carry on. And so forth.

Asking healthcare providers to be propaganda mouthpieces and assist in rationing medicines. Not because of war, but because of an entirely self-inflicted and voluntary scenario, which they could still avoid with the flick of a pen.

Agreed with NHS England. Brexit in a nutshell.

I posted earlier about how almost all hospital diagnostic materials are supplied from EU, and rely on JIT almost as much as the auntimotive industry. NHS Trusts in NI have been asked to stockpile at least 6 weeks of supplies, where a delivery usually covers 3 weeks and is in excess of £200,000 for each Trust, with every Trust in GB doing the same, it's both a massive financial burden for overstretched services and a supply problem- everyone will be chasing fewer and fewer reagents.

There's a sense of panic setting in the NHS, belatedly. Last week advice from above was that no change was necessary, this week staff from across the border have been advised "to leave earlier to avoid potential delays" and stockpile materials.

Capt'n Midnight

Worrying UK economic news.
Industry has stopped investing. The Consumer is getting deeper in debt.
And it's worse than the economists polled predicted.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-economy/uk-economy-relies-on-stretched-consumers-as-brexit-hits-investment-idUSKCN1OK0W9

ONS statistician Rob Kent-Smith said households spent more than they received for an unprecedented eighth quarter in a row, raising questions about their ability to keep on spending and driving the country’s economy.

Capt'n Midnight

downcow wrote: »

Help me with something. As a unionist living in NI and committed to peace and good relations with our southern neighbours. When people on here say ‘no hard border’ it implies there is some sort of soft border compromise that they would accept. What are the additional measures that you could contemplate that might help this over the line and help unionists accept passport control, checks, etc within our country eg Larne?

Maybe you should check on what the rules are today.

Go to http://www.poferries.com/eu/cairnryan-larne/faqs
click on Do I need a passport? and you get referred to
We’re not the experts so it’s best to check with those in-the-know before you travel - https://www.gov.uk/uk-border-control.

Meanwhile down here it's

British or Irish citizens travelling on our Irish Sea routes do not need a passport to travel to Britain or Ireland but are advised to take a form of identity. A driving licence, citizenship card or utility bill will usually suffice. A birth certificate will provide adequate proof of identity for your child to travel on our sailings.

dr.fuzzenstein

zapitastas wrote: »

The whole episode with the drone and Gatwick inspires little confidence in the performance of all of this wonderful tech that is soon to come that will mean a frictionless border

They'll use drones, no worries.

zapitastas

The whole episode with the drone and Gatwick inspires little confidence in the performance of all of this wonderful tech that is soon to come that will mean a frictionless border

UsedToWait

Guardian reporting:

A six-day trip to the US by former Brexit secretary David Davis was partly funded by an American lobbying organisation that is alleged to favour weakening European Union regulations on environmental and food standards.

The Oklahoma-based organisation, the E Foundation, paid £5,362 to Davis, who was accompanied by fellow Brexiter Owen Paterson on the trip last month. The organisation represents agricultural and energy interests.

The E Foundation attracted attention this year when undercover reporters from Greenpeace’s investigative unit, Unearthed, recorded its director saying that he aimed to raise thousands of dollars from US donors to campaign on Brexit

I know the forum rules are against just posting links, but there isn't much to add...

Edit: for background on these 'think tanks' / lobbyists, and their malign influence on Brexit, read Caroe Cadwalladr, and an excellent citizen journalist Facts Central (@StillDelvingH) on Twitter.

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In the meantime, the best thing we can do for the North after Brexit is work to get Stormont restored, and leave the Border poll until there's consensus that the time is right for one.

After Brexit we will have even less influence and those still waiting on rights, all others on these islands enjoy, will be even more vulnerable. If you think the DUP will behave like benign wallflowers after Brexit I think you are deluding yourself.
Their triumphalism alone will be seriously divisive.

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'In the meantime' we cannot 'forget' anything, which is what you were proposing.

In the meantime, the best thing we can do for the North after Brexit is work to get Stormont restored, and leave the Border poll until there's consensus that the time is right for one.

FrancieBrady

First Up wrote: »

That's what the GFA is about. When nationalists can outvote the unionists they can take it further.

In the meantime......

'In the meantime' we cannot 'forget' anything, which is what you were proposing.

Kermit.de.frog

snowstorm445 wrote: »

This is the sort of attitude we’re up against. It’s these sorts of comments that make you hope it’s a hard Brexit. They entirely deserve what’s coming. https://mobile.twitter.com/patcondell/status/1076146151752192000

Don't feed the trolls by posting links to tweets of absolute nobodies?

briany

lawred2 wrote: »

That lad seems to have gotten favorable responses from a collection of people who appear to be Irish

First on the chain of comments is someone using the Twitter handle, "The One Ruler', and has a Celtic cross as an avatar. Wouldn't take a rocket scientist to see that someone like that is probably going to be anti-EU, and vehemently so. That's if it even is a person and not a troll.

lawred2

snowstorm445 wrote: »

This is the sort of attitude we’re up against. It’s these sorts of comments that make you hope it’s a hard Brexit. They entirely deserve what’s coming. https://mobile.twitter.com/patcondell/status/1076146151752192000

That lad seems to have gotten favorable responses from a collection of people who appear to be Irish

briany

snowstorm445 wrote: »

This is the sort of attitude we’re up against. It’s these sorts of comments that make you hope it’s a hard Brexit. They entirely deserve what’s coming. https://mobile.twitter.com/patcondell/status/1076146151752192000

I wouldn't focus in on this kind of sh*t-stirring without also stopping to consider whether how much of the overall UK population it represents. The amount of British people who are Brexit-aware, pro-Brexit, anti-EU and anti-Irish gives us a relatively small subset. Those people would deserve the hardship of a no-deal Brexit, if that is indeed what a no-deal would bring to the UK. For all the normal British people, though, not so much.