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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Leroy42

I see the UK car industry has come out with a fairly robust anti No deal statement (I can't link right at the moment but Faisal Islam has it on Sky News).

PeadarCo

oscarBravo wrote:

I'm not sure it's entirely fair of him to criticise the lack of detail of hard border preparations. It's such an incredibly sensitive topic that, assuming there are contingency plans in place for border checks, they would quite probably not be published at this stage.

To be fair the biggest concern I'd have about the government's strategy is that they are not preparing people for that eventuality. Assuming Ireland stays in the EU it's the UK government that will decide if there is a hard border or not. And it's hard to predict what it will do in the coming months. While no one in the Dail wants a hard border it's outside their control at the moment. I don't know if this has been properly communicated to the public at large.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see the UK car industry has come out with a fairly robust anti No deal statement (I can't link right at the moment but Faisal Islam has it on Sky News).

I'm guessing this article as it appears on his twitter feed as the latest one.

Water John

We're pretty cohesive and switched on here in the ROI. People are aware contingency plans are prepared. We the public would adapt quite rapidly to signals from Govn't.

Nate--IRL--

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see the UK car industry has come out with a fairly robust anti No deal statement (I can't link right at the moment but Faisal Islam has it on Sky News).

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1075825172282785792

Nate

Professor Moriarty

Nody wrote: »

I'm guessing this article as it appears on his twitter feed as the latest one.

Unambiguous.

An Ciarraioch

JRM and Leave EU noting Leo's comment that Ireland has no plans for a hard Border, even though the government may well have no alternative come March.

Sam Russell

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

JRM and Leave EU noting Leo's comment that Ireland has no plans for a hard Border, even though the government may well have no alternative come March.

I think they are confusing 'No Plans' and 'No Published Plans'.

Is it possible there is a secret back channel with TM such that in the event of a 'No Deal' exit, that the UK Gov will implement full checks at ports to make an EU border unnecessary at the NI/Ire border?

It was back channels the enabled the GFA.

[Deleted User]

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think they are confusing 'No Plans' and 'No Published Plans'.

Is it possible there is a secret back channel with TM such that in the event of a 'No Deal' exit, that the UK Gov will implement full checks at ports to make an EU border unnecessary at the NI/Ire border?

It was back channels the enabled the GFA.

What you are describing is the backstop.
If that were politically feasible we wouldn't be in this mess.

Water John

Amber Rudd made it quite clear that No Deal Brexit she doesn't see happening as the vast majority in the HoC wouldn't allow it. When push comes to shove the moderates in Parliament will work together.

CelticRambler

UsedToWait wrote: »

I'm not being smart, and I'm not advocating it, but they'll get fairly cheesed off with checking under their cars every morning, if they're not careful.

They'll get cheesed off sooner with being channelled into the Non-EU lane for passport, visa and baggage checks when heading down the M1 to catch a flight from Dublin.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think they are confusing 'No Plans' and 'No Published Plans'.

Is it possible there is a secret back channel with TM such that in the event of a 'No Deal' exit, that the UK Gov will implement full checks at ports to make an EU border unnecessary at the NI/Ire border?

It was back channels the enabled the GFA.

Deleted User wrote: »

What you are describing is the backstop.
If that were politically feasible we wouldn't be in this mess.

Well if peace on the island is at stake this is the only way to try and ensure it stays peaceful and even then it may not be enough. I see this as a solution as well in case of No Deal, they have their legal obligation to keep the border open but will have to do checks at their ports. What Unionists make of this is out of their control, but it seems with the warnings that putting a border on the island will lead to violence. This way there is a chance not to return to violence and even then I fear that it will not be enough.

Enzokk

Water John wrote: »

Amber Rudd made it quite clear that No Deal Brexit she doesn't see happening as the vast majority in the HoC wouldn't allow it. When push comes to shove the moderates in Parliament will work together.

Well in that case she and the other moderates will basically have to vote against their party in the HoC, which so far only a handful has done. Will they put country before party when a lot of the moderates like Soubry have spoken against government policies but in the end voted for them in any case?

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

What you are describing is the backstop.
If that were politically feasible we wouldn't be in this mess.

No, the backstop is a legally enforced agreement that would come into effect if the UK left the CU and SM and had not come up with a magical system to render border checks unnecessary.

What I am asking about is an informal system put in place by HMG to remove the need for a hard border on a pro-tem optional basis. Checks already take place. Given the Dublin Port will have full checks, only Belfast and Larne need to implement checks a bit more than currently. It would be a UK 'initiative' in response to the EU proposals to ease the crash out elements of Brexit, and could be time limited, and the UK could terminate it at any time.

In the short term, the UK and, in particular, NI are in full compliance with SM and CU rules.

It would be remarkable if some attempt at a back channel was not tested. What did TM and Leo talk about for two hours?

briany

Water John wrote: »

Amber Rudd made it quite clear that No Deal Brexit she doesn't see happening as the vast majority in the HoC wouldn't allow it. When push comes to shove the moderates in Parliament will work together.

Will that shove be on the week of January 14th?

Scoondal

Amber Rudd is entitled to have her opinion heard.
Every UK citizen also had their opinion heard and recorded in a vote. Perhaps Amber would like to set up a dictatorship in UK.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

JRM and Leave EU noting Leo's comment that Ireland has no plans for a hard Border, even though the government may well have no alternative come March.

It depends what one means by "plans". Simon Coveney is admitting that No Deal would put Ireland in a very difficult position vis-a-vis the border.

It's easy to understand Varadkar's reluctance to even discuss this issue in public. He doesn't want to be seen talking about putting up a hard border in Ireland, the subject is sensitive in the extreme. Saying he is actively planning for it could blow up in his face almost immediately.

Beechwoodspark

CelticRambler wrote: »

They'll get cheesed off sooner with being channelled into the Non-EU lane for passport, visa and baggage checks when heading down the M1 to catch a flight from Dublin.

Won’t happen

read the Uk white paper published yest

Water John

Have a read of this. Planned cooperation already underway.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/20/theresa-may-cabinet-collectively-focused-on-passing-brexit-deal

The amendment has been signed by a number of influential Labour and Tory MPs and is expected to be voted on when the House of Commons returns from the Christmas recess.

MPs who have signed include Nicky Morgan, the Conservative chair of the Treasury committee, Labour’s Hilary Benn, who chairs the Brexit committee, Rachel Reeves, the Labour chair of the business committee, the Tory former ministers Oliver Letwin and Nick Boles, and the former Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman.

Podge_irl

Water John wrote: »

Amber Rudd made it quite clear that No Deal Brexit she doesn't see happening as the vast majority in the HoC wouldn't allow it. When push comes to shove the moderates in Parliament will work together.

I've seen this a lot but what does it really mean? The only way to stop a No Deal Brexit is to agree to May's WA deal or to revoke Article 50. That won't change between now and March so just bloody sort it out now.

Scoondal

Podge_irl wrote: »

I've seen this a lot but what does it really mean? The only way to stop a No Deal Brexit is to agree to May's WA deal or to revoke Article 50. That won't change between now and March so just bloody sort it out now.

Yes, Amber Rudd is talking complete and utter balderdash. These hard line remainers are causing as much damage to UK as the hard line brexiteers. She needs to realise that she is part of the problem.

Water John

Equivalence again, the nonsense from Brexiteers is in a league of its own.
Nadine Dorres last night, jump and we'll be fine.

Scoondal

CelticRambler wrote: »

They'll get cheesed off sooner with being channelled into the Non-EU lane for passport, visa and baggage checks when heading down the M1 to catch a flight from Dublin.

This has been happening for many years for Irish citizens travelling to EU.
UK refused to join Schengen Area. Therefore, because of Ireland / uk "free travel area" Ireland is not allowed to be in Schengen area.
I could tell you long winded stories of my non EU wife, living in Ireland, and the hassle she had from uk border control transferring within Heathrow and problems going on holiday to EU countries.

Can Ireland join the Schengen visa area if uk leave EU ?

Please ?

A Dub in Glasgo

Scoondal wrote: »

This has been happening for many years for Irish citizens travelling to EU.
UK refused to join Schengen Area. Therefore, because of Ireland / uk "free travel area" Ireland is not allowed to be in Schengen area.
I could tell you long winded stories of my non EU wife, living in Ireland, and the hassle she had from uk border control transferring within Heathrow and problems going on holiday to EU countries.

Can Ireland join the Schengen visa area if uk leave EU ?

Please ?

Ireland chose not to join Schengen after the UK decided not to join as the benefits of the Ireland-UK CTA is more important than Schengen

Scoondal

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Ireland chose not to join Schengen after the UK decided not to join as the benefits of the Ireland-UK CTA is more important than Schengen

So, Republic of Ireland was bound by uk's decision.
uk still has that influence on our country.
Perhaps we should have a vote ... If uk leaves EU, is CTA or Schengen Area more important for Repuplic of Ireland ?

A Dub in Glasgo

Scoondal wrote: »

So, Republic of Ireland was bound by uk's decision.
uk still has that influence on our country.
Perhaps we should have a vote ... If uk leaves EU, is CTA or Schengen Area more important for Repuplic of Ireland ?

Looks like you missed the point of my post especially the last bit

First Up

Scoondal wrote: »

So, Republic of Ireland was bound by uk's decision.
uk still has that influence on our country.
Perhaps we should have a vote ... If uk leaves EU, is CTA or Schengen Area more important for Repuplic of Ireland ?

We weren't "bound" by it; we were influenced by it. If the final arrangements post Brexit leave the Irish border open, then we won't be joining Schengen, for the same reasons.

If there is a border in Ireland, then we can (and probably will} join Schengen.

Beechwoodspark

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Ireland chose not to join Schengen after the UK decided not to join as the benefits of the Ireland-UK CTA is more important than Schengen

Ireland can indeed choose to join schengen in the future

Thargor

Wasnt there someone in this thread recently playing down the UKs auto industries exposure to Brexit?

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1075825172282785792

Anthracite

briany wrote: »

Man, the ERG must be rubbing their hands together at the thought of Ireland having to erect a border. It's a political win several layers deep for them.

- The UK could basically get to erecting their own border the next day. They can say, "Ah, well, we *were* committed to preserving the GFA, but Ireland already breached it, so no use crying over spilt milk."

- They can use the case of Ireland having to erect a border as the EU telling little countries what to do, even when it violates hitherto successful peace deals. Sows a few more seeds of Euro-scepticism around the place.

- Gives them a nice clean exit from the EU. No faffing around or worrying about WTO's Most Favoured Nations Rule.

- It's the result the DUP wants. Keeps them well onside and participating in the current government's C&S deal.

Hard border almost guarantees a United Ireland in the next decade or two.