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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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intellectual dosser

cml387 wrote: »

UK airlines will lose fifth freedom rights however. They would not be allowed to operate between EU airports.

Just between EU airports? Would the British Airways flight from London City to New York that stops in Shannon be impacted?

lawred2

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Ah look, we're all well aware over here what the DUP are like. However it looks like it's a steep learning curve for the UK government to realise what happens in their own jurisdiction. Are you really surprised that the DUP are full of that level of hypocrisy!

Interesting to see how the DUP react to the cessation of CAP payments..

ilovesmybrick

LeinsterDub wrote:

No special status for Northern Ireland! So how our all our special statuses coming along!

Ah look, we're all well aware over here what the DUP are like. However it looks like it's a steep learning curve for the UK government to realise what happens in their own jurisdiction. Are you really surprised that the DUP are full of that level of hypocrisy!

Bit cynical

Podge_irl wrote: »

It is even noted in the document that "This is subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring conditions of fair competition." Nothing has been arranged or agreed with the UK.

I would say that a public statement from the UK will be forthcoming shortly.

Podge_irl

Bit cynical wrote: »

Officially yes, but behind the scenes there will have been confidential discussions and arrangements.

The announcement is the closest thing you will see diplomatically to "we'll allow them this once, but the idiots better get their stuff sorted soon". I do not know what about the UK's approach makes you think they would in any way have the capability or desire to engage in such arrangements. This is the EU's contingency plan - the same plan that the UK has only just started to actually look at properly.

It is even noted in the document that "This is subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring conditions of fair competition." Nothing has been arranged or agreed with the UK.

Tell me how

_Puma_ wrote: »

Theresa Mays's "deal" was an olive branch by the EU27 to help TM galvonise the now increasing "Remain" vote into some sort half way house between Remain and not walking off a cliff, but in true Tory fashion, she only managed to further fragment her party.

There is nothing else that can be done for them. Best look away now as things will get ugly and anything that is uttered by the EU27 will be interpreted as a sign of weakness by the Brexiters. Let them at it, let them consume themselves, let them stare off the cliff and let them jump if needs be.

We should be entirely focused on preparing and managing the fallout from inside the EU27, as we see from todays commissions brexit preparation plans.

I disagree that it was an olive branch as such. I feel that it was the EU making the best of a bad situation while protecting the interests of the remaining 27 (as they should do) as much as possible.

Focusing on managing the fallout is effectively saying that a hard border is required on the island of Ireland. That is not in our interest.

Akrasia

Bit cynical wrote: »

Still wrong I'm afraid. If you said that flights would be grounded between the UK and the EU you were wrong. Face up to it.

And the misplaced gloating has started....

Nate--IRL--

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is within their power to protect EU citizens' rights within the UK.

Apologies, I misread your initial post.

Nate

Akrasia

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I would expect that the UK will see this as a form of Victory at the EU caving in to their demands.

This is going to weaken Mays position significantly and strengthen the Moggs and Farages and it makes a 2nd referendum less likely.

Poor call from the EU

Bit cynical

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

They can't say that, it isn't in their power to do so. It is for each individual state to decide.

It is within their power to protect EU citizens' rights within the UK.

Bit cynical

Podge_irl wrote: »

The UK and the EU have "arranged" absolutely nothing. The EU have decided to allow the UK certain freedoms but a strictly time-limited period.

Officially yes, but behind the scenes there will have been confidential discussions and arrangements.

Nate--IRL--

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well I think the UK have already said that EU citizens rights will be protected in the event of no deal some time ago.

They can't say that, it isn't in their power to do so. It is for each individual state to decide.

Nate

Podge_irl

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think the important thing is that in the event of a no deal scenario, planes flying to and from the UK won't be grounded. This was a worry for Ireland. The UK and the EU have arranged that this won't be the case. Well done to both sides, and in particular the EU.

The UK and the EU have "arranged" absolutely nothing. The EU have decided to allow the UK certain freedoms but a strictly time-limited period.

Bit cynical

Christy42 wrote: »

Note that citizen rights are directly dependent on the UK reciprocating.

Well I think the UK have already said that EU citizens rights will be protected in the event of no deal some time ago.

_Puma_

Tell me how wrote: »

Would this not strengthen sympathy for remainers? Very few of them would have supported her in any of these decisions.

Theresa Mays's "deal" was an olive branch by the EU27 to help TM galvonise the now increasing "Remain" vote into some sort half way house between Remain and not walking off a cliff, but in true Tory fashion, she only managed to further fragment her party.

There is nothing else that can be done for them. Best look away now as things will get ugly and anything that is uttered by the EU27 will be interpreted as a sign of weakness by the Brexiters. Let them at it, let them consume themselves, let them stare off the cliff and let them jump if needs be.

We should be entirely focused on preparing and managing the fallout from inside the EU27, as we see from todays commissions brexit preparation plans.

Christy42

The rules are in place so the UK will reciprocate. They largely have to and this feels like the EU telling the UK what to do and when. Note that citizen rights are directly dependent on the UK reciprocating. Given this was a major point it would be a big step back for the UK to do so.

It keeps airports open and allows us to keep our lines of transit through the UK in all likelihood. The UKs big issue is taxes on exports which has not gone away. Financial services are bare bones and time limited.

These rules are also at the EUs whim to remove at any given moment.

Honestly it could be seen as a way to soften the blow as businesses move from the UK.

Bit cynical

robinph wrote: »

Only for as long as the EU feels like allowing it to happen, and for a maximum of a year. If the UK screws about more, or ignores the fact that they still need to negotiate replacement deals within that 12 months, then the EU can just pull the plug overnight without warning.

I think the important thing is that in the event of a no deal scenario, planes flying to and from the UK won't be grounded. This was a worry for Ireland. The UK and the EU have arranged that this won't be the case. Well done to both sides, and in particular the EU.

[Deleted User]

Bit cynical wrote: »

Still wrong I'm afraid. If you said that flights would be grounded between the UK and the EU you were wrong. Face up to it.

Face up to what exactly? At this particular moment in time, there still cannot be flights. The UK needs to make a similar commitment.

Am I currently wrong, or are you currently wrong? Are either of us wrong? Why does it matter?

You're the type of person who'd claim y2k was a lie and simply fear mongering while ignoring the efforts made to mitigate the problems.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/denisstaunton/status/1075357988376981504

No special status for Northern Ireland! So how our all our special statuses coming along!

Tell me how

_Puma_ wrote: »

Who cares how this is going to be spun in British newspapers or to the British public. We are through the looking glass now and what we are seeing from the EU are pragmatic measures for the benefit of its 27 members due to a very unpragmatic decision by British ruling class.

Any series of measures to limit chaos in the 27 will be spun in anyway possible for the brexiters as a victory for brexit and leverage for a "future" trade negotiation. What will actually happen will "Britain" will become a rogue state and will be viewed as a hostile nation in terms of trade negotiations with the EU.

From reading this thread and various British based forums, these people do not in any way, sign up to the EU as it is incepted as a economic and political union between countries as equals. Call it a hangover from imperialism or whatever but the only true cure for "Brexit" is brexit. I once had sympathy for Remainers but not anymore after the absolute pantomine of Thereasa Mays government from the GE, getting into bed with the DUP, the invocation of A50 and her two "speeches" to placate her mainly brexit leaning parliamentary party and her "deal" s**tshow..

Its time we focused on the fallout for Ireland, managing the chaos and potential jettisoning of NI from the unholy union of "Great Britain and Northern Ireland" when things start to deteriorate rapidly across the Irish sea.

Would this not strengthen sympathy for remainers? Very few of them would have supported her in any of these decisions.

_Puma_

Who cares how this is going to be spun in British newspapers or to the British public. We are through the looking glass now and what we are seeing from the EU are pragmatic measures for the benefit of its 27 members due to a very unpragmatic decision by British ruling class.

Any series of measures to limit chaos in the 27 will be spun in anyway possible for the brexiters as a victory for brexit and leverage for a "future" trade negotiation. What will actually happen will "Britain" will become a rogue state and will be viewed as a hostile nation in terms of trade negotiations with the EU.

From reading this thread and various British based forums, these people do not in any way, sign up to the EU as it is incepted as a economic and political union between countries as equals. Call it a hangover from imperialism or whatever but the only true cure for "Brexit" is brexit. I once had sympathy for Remainers but not anymore after the absolute pantomine of Thereasa Mays government from the GE, getting into bed with the DUP, the invocation of A50 and her two "speeches" to placate her mainly brexit leaning parliamentary party and her "deal" s**tshow..

Its time we focused on the fallout for Ireland, managing the chaos and potential jettisoning of NI from the unholy union of "Great Britain and Northern Ireland" when things start to deteriorate rapidly across the Irish sea.

robinph

Bit cynical wrote: »

Still wrong I'm afraid. If you said that flights would be grounded between the UK and the EU you were wrong. Face up to it.

Only for as long as the EU feels like allowing it to happen, and for a maximum of a year. If the UK screws about more, or ignores the fact that they still need to negotiate replacement deals within that 12 months, then the EU can just pull the plug overnight without warning.

Tell me how

Tell me how wrote: »

I agree. And will allow Hard Brexiteers to claim 'Project Fear' was false as they will completely ignore the fact that such concessions were made.

And here they are.

Bit cynical wrote: »

Still wrong I'm afraid. If you said that flights would be grounded between the UK and the EU you were wrong. Face up to it.

Demonstrating perfectly how to completely ignore the relevance or the activities which influence an evolving situation.

The last couple of years and in particular in relation to Brexit (and him across the water to the west) have really been an eye opener for me as to the level which people and large groups can flat out lie simply because their desire to be right or to win or whatever way you want to describe it is overrides their fear of having been found to be a liar. I always knew people told lies, and of course, it would be very naive to not think politics involves a lot of the dark arts. But the degree to which they are comfortable doing so in the face of clear objective provable evidence is both astounding and worrying.

robinph

Berserker wrote: »

Same could be said for any other young person who wants to come here and work.

Not those from another non-EU country though. UK citizens also get full rights of residency in Ireland as if they were Irish themselves (except for voting in referendums and for the president) which is more than another EU citizen moving over would get.

Bit cynical

Deleted User wrote: »

No Deal and no flights are the default if no actions are taken to prevent them.

Claiming talk of no flights to be false is a distortion of the truth. If there are flights, it's because the EU decided to be the adults in the room. Remember, this stuff only applies if the UK manages to continue acting like angsty teenagers and do the sum total of nothing for over two years.

Still wrong I'm afraid. If you said that flights would be grounded between the UK and the EU you were wrong. Face up to it.

Tell me how

Berserker wrote: »

Labour under Corbyn are beyond a joke and I really wouldn't want to predict anything where they are involved. Can't get over his stupidity today with his "stupid woman" remark to May. All he needs to do to warm himself and his party to the people is keep his head down and speak some sense about Brexit when asked. We get this kind of nonsense instead.

The 'Stupid woman' comment, has distracted from how firmly May put him in his box.

Using the Christmas period tradition of pantomime, she got to make fun of his activities in relation to a motion of No Confidence to use the "Oh no he isn't" phrase, have her back benchers chime in with "Oh yes he is" and telling him he himself should "look behind you" at his back benchers who are sick of him.

I'm suspect it was something she had pre-planned as when Bercow interrupted her to silence shouters, she then started again to deliver it in full.

Yet another example to add to the calamitous behaviour by elected representatives on all sides throughout the Brexit discussion.

Seth Brundle

Deleted User wrote: »

I presume the UK will reciprocrate the measures. But who knows. The media could try to spin it as the EU expecting the UK to sign up to its demands or some nonsense.

I would expect that the UK will see this as a form of Victory at the EU caving in to their demands.

[Deleted User]

I presume the UK will reciprocrate the measures. But who knows. The media could try to spin it as the EU expecting the UK to sign up to its demands or some nonsense.

Tell me how

Bit cynical wrote: »

The aspects of it that said that flights between the UK and EU desinations would be grounded were indeed false.

Because of the Eu measures. Not because there are agreements in place or that there is no need for such agreements.

Berserker

Deleted User wrote: »

Say two years from now, which of them is more likely to want to rejoin the EU? I'd have thought Labor the less likely as it's Corbyn's thing, whereas the Tories might come back around and listen to business after their die-hards are proven wrong.

Labour under Corbyn are beyond a joke and I really wouldn't want to predict anything where they are involved. Can't get over his stupidity today with his "stupid woman" remark to May. All he needs to do to warm himself and his party to the people is keep his head down and speak some sense about Brexit when asked. We get this kind of nonsense instead.