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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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[Deleted User]

boggerman1 wrote: »

When the big farmers in the north who would have been staunch dup voters up to now lose their single farm payments from end of march hopefully at the next election up north they will ditch the dup and consign them to history.up to 80% of ni farmers incomes comes from EU

I posted over a year ago that the DUP stance is very like the Unionist stance on Home Rule over a century ago

back then unionists leaders were willing to get involved in a shooting war with the forces of the British monarchy to prove how British they were

Today the DUP leaders are willing to sacrifice the livelihood of their voters to prove how British they are.

Ray Bloody Purchase

boggerman1 wrote: »

It's like as if he really doesn't want to become PM be it now or in 6 months time

He's probably kacking his pants in case it would come to that. Who would want to preside over that sh1tshow?

First Up

hotmail.com wrote:

Sorry if this is a silly question, but will Irish citixens be exempt from the immigration rules in the future?

I think the UK said they would but nothing is finalised yet.

FreudianSlippers

First Up wrote: »

I think the UK said they would but nothing is finalised yet.

Unless they blow up the GFA/CTA then it should be fine. Who knows what'll happen now though!?

robinph

hotmail.com wrote: »

Sorry if this is a silly question, but will Irish citixens be exempt from the immigration rules in the future?

Should be as the rules allowing UK/ Irish citizens to live and work in UK/ Ireland are separate to anything to do with the EU. But as far as I've seen nobody has actually bothered to confirm that.

In theory all UK citizens could up sticks and move to Ireland for a couple of years and then reclaim their EU citizenship, plus Irish citizenship, by naturalisation. Likewise when the UK develops their unicorn farms all Irish citizens can head over and claim their free unicorn and magic money tree whilst blowing raspberries at the rest of the EU who won't be allowed in.

Next time the UK looks like they are going to make a tit of themselves with a stupid referendum, could I ask for the whole of Ireland to register to vote in the UK and help save us from ourselves please.

FreudianSlippers

I'm no fan of Corbyn and I think he's made an absolute balls of Brexit in opposition, but he very clearly said "stupid people". But no matter what he said, he's given the Conservatives an early Christmas present by saying anything - stupid people/women/men whatever.

robinph

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'm no fan of Corbyn and I think he's made an absolute balls of Brexit in opposition, but he very clearly said "stupid people". But no matter what he said, he's given the Conservatives an early Christmas present by saying anything - stupid people/women/men whatever.

When they first played that on the news right after saying that he said "stupid woman" it obviously looked like that was what he said as they planted that seed of thought in your head, but on looking at it again (with the sound off so as not to distract) it is "people" and he says it as looking along the whole font bench.

Shelga

robinph wrote: »

When they first played that on the news right after saying that he said "stupid woman" it obviously looked like that was what he said as they planted that seed of thought in your head, but on looking at it again (with the sound off so as not to distract) it is "people" and he says it as looking along the whole font bench.

Such a totally ridiculous item for the media to be jumping on, either way.

100 days til potential economic Armageddon and this is what they're focused on.

[Deleted User]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46617152

Brexit: EU reveals no-deal plans

Among other things, the measures would temporarily allow:

Flights from the UK into and overflying the EU to be allowed for 12 months to ensure "basic connectivity"
Hauliers to carry freight by road into the EU for a nine-month period without having to apply for permits
UK financial services regulations - in a limited number of areas such as derivatives trading - to be recognised as equivalent to the EU's for one or two years

As usual, the EU trying to be pragmatic.

john9876

john9876 wrote: »

The IRA shot her father in the head in 1979 but he survived and returned to work as a police officer.
He died from a heart attack in 2011 aged 81.
Just clarifying ...

Just as an aside, her fathers name was John Kelly ... I would have thought Kelly is predominantly a Catholic name ... perhaps she has some in her family tree?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Take the NI-specific stuff elsewhere please.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46617152

Brexit: EU reveals no-deal plans

Among other things, the measures would temporarily allow:
Flights from the UK into and overflying the EU to be allowed for 12 months to ensure "basic connectivity"

Hauliers to carry freight by road into the EU for a nine-month period without having to apply for permits

UK financial services regulations - in a limited number of areas such as derivatives trading - to be recognised as equivalent to the EU's for one or two years

As usual, the EU trying to be pragmatic.

Doesn't this effectively remove the biggest issues in regards to hard brexit?

Give it a few minutes. You'll have a few posters coming in telling us that the dictatorial EU is demanding their members undertake this and bullying the UK into accepting these new rules.

On a separate point, on BBCR4, Sajid Javid (or at least I think it was him) refused to state that the Tories are still aiming for immigration in the 10's of thousands. Al he would say is that their intention was so aim for the manifesto.

I found this really odd, since clearly immigration is one of the driving factors behind Brexit and clearly a key issue for TM yet despite the 'ending of FoM forever' pledge they cannot commit to any numbers!

FreudianSlippers

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46617152

Brexit: EU reveals no-deal plans

Among other things, the measures would temporarily allow:
Flights from the UK into and overflying the EU to be allowed for 12 months to ensure "basic connectivity"

Hauliers to carry freight by road into the EU for a nine-month period without having to apply for permits

UK financial services regulations - in a limited number of areas such as derivatives trading - to be recognised as equivalent to the EU's for one or two years

As usual, the EU trying to be pragmatic.

I find it to be extremely generous to the UK in terms of a transition period given this is the "no-deal" outcome.

listermint

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I find it to be extremely generous to the UK in terms of a transition period given this is the "no-deal" outcome.

Extremely, Its removing alot of the brexit shock that they should be rightly experiencing tbh. The electorate kinda need that shock to see the government get a kick up the arse. I think the timelines are too long frankly.

ancapailldorcha

Shelga wrote: »

Such a totally ridiculous item for the media to be jumping on, either way.

100 days til potential economic Armageddon and this is what they're focused on.

Is it? They actually want a no deal Brexit and it could be argued that they are actively in favor of things which are inimical to the interests of working class people.

Meanwhile, Brexit has hoovered up huge amounts of time, money and resources which could have been deployed on the NHS, infrastructure, automation, etc....

[Deleted User]

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I find it to be extremely generous to the UK in terms of a transition period given this is the "no-deal" outcome.

The contrast between that which helps all, and the UK's announcement of 3,500 troops on stand-by, is quite jarring.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

The contrast between that which helps all, and the UK's announcement of 3,500 troops on stand-by, is quite jarring.

But doesn't it prove IDS, DD etc right that the EU will cave in the end? Basically the EU are bending their own rules to avoid a hard Brexit, despite the UK doing nothing to help.

So the UK are getting rid of FoM, but will still have access to the EU market. Seems like a win win for the UK. And does anybody really think these timelines won't be extended?

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Is it? They actually want a no deal Brexit and it could be argued that they are actively in favor of things which are inimical to the interests of working class people.

Meanwhile, Brexit has hoovered up huge amounts of time, money and resources which could have been deployed on the NHS, infrastructure, automation, etc....

That's a very broad brush stroke. I don't think, for example, The Guardian, The Mirror or Sky News could be described as pro Brexit, never mind pro No Deal.

Tell me how

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I find it to be extremely generous to the UK in terms of a transition period given this is the "no-deal" outcome.

I agree. And will allow Hard Brexiteers to claim 'Project Fear' was false as they will completely ignore the fact that such concessions were made.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's a very broad brush stroke. I don't think, for example, The Guardian, The Mirror or Sky News could be described as pro Brexit, never mind pro No Deal.

The Guardian and The Mirror certainly don't so that's a fair point. It was a broad generalisation but Murdoch owns Sky News which is likely being held in check by regulations on broadcasters.

blanch152

robinph wrote: »

Should be as the rules allowing UK/ Irish citizens to live and work in UK/ Ireland are separate to anything to do with the EU. But as far as I've seen nobody has actually bothered to confirm that.

In theory all UK citizens could up sticks and move to Ireland for a couple of years and then reclaim their EU citizenship, plus Irish citizenship, by naturalisation. Likewise when the UK develops their unicorn farms all Irish citizens can head over and claim their free unicorn and magic money tree whilst blowing raspberries at the rest of the EU who won't be allowed in.

Next time the UK looks like they are going to make a tit of themselves with a stupid referendum, could I ask for the whole of Ireland to register to vote in the UK and help save us from ourselves please.

The biggest obstacle to the Common Travel Area in the medium term could be young British people looking to move to Ireland for work, passport, education etc. Our infrastructure is already struggling with the current levels of immigration, any increase is problematic.

[Deleted User]

Leroy42 wrote: »

But doesn't it prove IDS, DD etc right that the EU will cave in the end? Basically the EU are bending their own rules to avoid a hard Brexit, despite the UK doing nothing to help.

So the UK are getting rid of FoM, but will still have access to the EU market. Seems like a win win for the UK. And does anybody really think these timelines won't be extended?

It's an EU-first set of measures that has the knock-on effect of making the UK's crash and burn a bit less firey.

I don't think it's necessarily a cave or suggests there will be a cave-in on key things like the backstop. In fact, we should really be happy for things like this coming out since it lessens the pressure on the EU in the final stretch.

What we're worried about is far greater than some life support for key transport and finance.

Enzokk

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I find it to be extremely generous to the UK in terms of a transition period given this is the "no-deal" outcome.

I do wonder if some of have to do with EU countries needing time to implement plans as well. While there will be pain it really does no-one any favours by hurting yourself as well just for the sake of it. I mean lets be honest a lot of people from the EU will need flights by UK airlines as much as UK citizens.

Leroy42 wrote: »

But doesn't it prove IDS, DD etc right that the EU will cave in the end? Basically the EU are bending their own rules to avoid a hard Brexit, despite the UK doing nothing to help.

So the UK are getting rid of FoM, but will still have access to the EU market. Seems like a win win for the UK. And does anybody really think these timelines won't be extended?

If anything these plans will make the hurt for the UK so much more as they will have a false sense of security that the EU will cave. Once these time frames elapse though you will see the full force of Brexit and at that time the EU will have no appetite to give in to the UK rebate again but only full EU membership will all of its trimmings will be available.

Leroy42

But if we should have learned anything throughout this process it is that the UK will do anything to avoid making a decision.

This merely takes away all the needs for them to make any decisions. As was pointed out earlier, a key line for the Brexiteers is so claim that the forecasts of doom and recession upon voting to leave never came to pass so all forecasts can be ignored.

Thus, on 30th April, if everything is working perfectly fine for the man or woman in the street, then they will be quite confident to simply claim that they were right all along.

I see it as a total cave by the EU. It might be pragmatic, but it proves that the EU has a weakness it wants to avoid at all costs and the UK can now use this to their advantage.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

If anything these plans will make the hurt for the UK so much more as they will have a false sense of security that the EU will cave. Once these time frames elapse though you will see the full force of Brexit and at that time the EU will have no appetite to give in to the UK rebate again but only full EU membership will all of its trimmings will be available.

Isn't that just another way to say the EU are kicking the can down the road? Failing to face up the realities?

downcow

Enzokk wrote: »

You haven't answered why we should trust your judgement on violence returning over the Chief Constable of the PSNI,

I am surprised you take the chief con as gospel. Of course he needs his budget increased. We have had relative peace for 20 years (at least less killings than Dublin). How long are we expected to go on under the shadow of the nasty sectarian campaign. We need to move on. It’s over. Don’t be influenced by the sectarian dinasaurs of the ira and uda.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Isn't that just another way to say the EU are kicking the can down the road? Failing to face up the realities?

Well I don't see the EU doing anything at this point for the UK that is against their own members interests. The only reason that they would provide these plans would be that their own members need the time and not the UK.

This is the same discussion as when someone says that the EU will force us to drop the backstop, when have they ever done something against their own interests?

[Deleted User]

Leroy, small measures don't solve Dover, or medicine, or a myriad of other things that would smack the UK extremely hard. Their trade deals with the world will be gone.

I personally see no reason for the EU to not mitigate damage to itself just because it makes the UK's exit slightly less worse.

Tell me how

downcow wrote: »

I am surprised you take the chief con as gospel. Of course he needs his budget increased. We have had relative peace for 20 years (at least less killings than Dublin). How long are we expected to go on under the shadow of the nasty sectarian campaign. We need to move on. It’s over. Don’t be influenced by the sectarian dinasaurs of the ira and uda.

His budget is hardly going to be increased if he cannot show evidence (to his government) that it is warranted. That evidence is not necessarily going to make it in to the public domain to be analysed and improved.
You can't have management by referendum on every activity.

cml387

UK airlines will lose fifth freedom rights however. They would not be allowed to operate between EU airports.