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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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keane2097

seamus wrote: »

A "managed" no deal is basically playing chicken. "The EU won't let us just crash out. So let's go with no deal and a pile of last-minute contingency arrangements will have to be put into place".

Is it theoretically possible? Well, yes. The EU could temporarily revert the competencies for various agreements, back to a local level. So Ireland could then enact emergency legislation that regulates the control of trade, flights, ships, etc between Ireland and the UK. With the understanding that six months later, everything reverts to EU rules and/or whatever new agreements have been made with the UK.

But of course, then every EU country has to do that. Ireland can't write legislation that controls the passage of flights through French airspace.

Which is chaos. And there's no carrot; no benefit to the EU of providing such an arrangement. The EU will enact its own emergency legislation to cover the union as a whole, but only insofar as it will protect EU interests. Again, there's no carrot for the EU to enact temporary emergency legislation to "save" the UK from its own fvck up.

The EU has stated pretty clearly that they're not going to kick this can down the road. They're not going to put temporary arrangements in place because the UK couldn't get its sh1t together.

What the EU puts in place to handle the world post-29th March, will be in place indefinitely.

This is it. They have the gun to their heads and are saying 'we will seriously pull the trigger so if you want to avoid being spattered with gore the only way to do so is give me everything I want'.

There seems to be a genuine incredulity on their part that we are willing to accept that we are going to get spattered in preference to giving them the unicorns they are demanding. This is despite the fact that we would have to saw off our arms to get the unicorns for them.

'I'd say we'll take the spatter there, Percy, sorry about that'.

J Mysterio

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the ira hadn't blew up the school bus Arlene Foster was on she probably would be a different person now and not the DUP leader-so it could be said that tactic was counter productive.

May have been her Father being killed which had the greater impact but thanks for your insightful contribution nonetheless.

Professor Moriarty

boggerman1 wrote: »

When the big farmers in the north who would have been staunch dup voters up to now lose their single farm payments from end of march hopefully at the next election up north they will ditch the dup and consign them to history.up to 80% of ni farmers incomes comes from EU

It's happening already. DUP got 35% in 2017 GE. They're at 30% in the polls now.

McGiver

downcow wrote:

...never mind such an undemocratic conglomerate of 27 states.

Says someone from a four nation state which is unable to arrange its affairs in decentralised or federal arrangement for the satisfaction of all the constituent nations and regions, where almost all the matters are tightly controlled by the English government, where the other three nations have basically no say in those matters, where the upper house of the parliament is unelected with hereditary seats and seats allocated for clergy, where one third of lower house seats are "safe" with no possibility of electorate ever changing their party affiliation, where the constitution is not written anywhere but made up on the go...

Yeah sure the undemocratic EU. Please read up on how undemocratic the UK is and how the EU institutions work before talking this Daily Mail nonsense on this forum.

Russman

CelticRambler wrote: »

according to WTO rules, if the UK allows one cow or one litre of milk to be brought into NI from the EU without being checked, then every country in the world can send their cattle, beef and dairy products into the UK without any checks.

Would this criteria be met by Joe Bloggs farmer who's land straddles the border and he's moving his livestock from field to field, potentially crossing the border several times ?

Professor Moriarty

Russman wrote: »

Would this criteria be met by Joe Bloggs farmer who's land straddles the border and he's moving his livestock from field to field, potentially crossing the border several times ?

Nevermind Joe Bloggs. People who would like intimate detail on such matters such consult with Slab Murphy.

Zubeneschamali

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I dunno people who run business can not afford to ignore reality.

No Deal is so completely bonkers that business people have been assuming that since MPs are not actually mad, it won't happen.

McGiver

mickoneill31 wrote:

I'm happy enough to be part of the EU if the sh1t hits the fan. 9 of the 10 poorest regions in the EU are in the UK (one of those is NI) . Brexit is not going to improve that and likely to make them worse off.

Just to be correct that so that Brexiteers can't blame you for inaccuracy:

9 out of the poorest 10 regions in Western Europe are in the UK.

The poorest regions in the whole EU would be probably in Romania or Bulgaria.

10000maniacs

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The backstop is important to us, which is why we have been focusing on it.

But thanks for the tip, anonymous member of Europe's most chaotic cabinet!

Just repeating what was said on Newsnight. Not my opinion BTW. I don't think the Brexit agreement should be tampered with in any way.

josip

Corbyn allegedly called May a 'stupid woman' during PMQs today.
It will be interesting to see what the outcome of this is.
I think it has gone to HOC VAR.

Shelga

J Mysterio wrote: »

May have been her Father being killed which had the greater impact but thanks for your insightful contribution nonetheless.

Her father wasn't killed by a bomb, he was seriously injured though.

Patrick Kielty's father was actually murdered, and yet he is able to rise above the tribalism of NI and advocate for peace via the Good Friday Agreement. Shame Foster cannot follow his example, and seems determined to burn NI to the ground instead. Why in holy hell did her party advocate a Leave vote?

Yes, Jeremy Corbyn calls Theresa May a stupid woman and is instantly labelled by James Cleverly as a misogynist. What a pathetic red herring.

Wish Corbyn had called her what she actually is- an evil, opportunistic c***.

john9876

J Mysterio wrote: »

May have been her Father being killed which had the greater impact but thanks for your insightful contribution nonetheless.

The IRA shot her father in the head in 1979 but he survived and returned to work as a police officer.
He died from a heart attack in 2011 aged 81.
Just clarifying ...

J Mysterio

Shelga wrote: »

Her father wasn't killed by a bomb, he was seriously injured though.

I see that you are correct - he was shot but survived.

intellectual dosser

josip wrote: »

Corbyn allegedly called May a 'stupid woman' during PMQs today.
It will be interesting to see what the outcome of this is.
I think it has gone to HOC VAR.

I confess to have laughed out loud at her pantomime gag...

mickoneill31

McGiver wrote: »

Just to be correct that so that Brexiteers can't blame you for inaccuracy:

9 out of 10 regions in Western Europe are in the UK.

The poorest regions in the whole EU would be probably in Romania or Bulgaria.

Ah. Anybody could have blamed me for inaccuracy. Fair enough. My fault. But still a mad statistic for a supposedly rich country.

badtoro

john9876 wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

May have been her Father being killed which had the greater impact but thanks for your insightful contribution nonetheless.

The IRA shot her father in the head in 1979 but he survived and returned to work as a police officer.
He died from a heart attack in 2011 aged 81.
Just clarifying ...

I don't have time for her but it's kinda understandable she'd be entrenched in her views after that happening.

[Deleted User]

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I confess to have laughed out loud at her pantomime gag...

What on Earth did I just watch. That was like badly orchestrated 8 Mile rap battle stuff.

Dyr

keane2097 wrote: »

This is it. They have the gun to their heads and are saying 'we will seriously pull the trigger so if you want to avoid being spattered with gore the only way to do so is give me everything I want'.

There seems to be a genuine incredulity on their part that we are willing to accept that we are going to get spattered in preference to giving them the unicorns they are demanding. This is despite the fact that we would have to saw off our arms to get the unicorns for them.

'I'd say we'll take the spatter there, Percy, sorry about that'.

They're really just counting on us blinking at the last minute.

Also possible that even if Leo does blink the EU won't.

Don't try play chicken when the stakes are much higher for you than the other fella

intellectual dosser

Deleted User wrote: »

What on Earth did I just watch. That was like badly orchestrated 8 Mile rap battle stuff.

Despite it being so pathetic in light of the current subject matter, I find PMQs so fasinating and amusing.

Looks like the media on Twitter are really trying to push the Stupid Woman soundbite. If TM had muttered 'Stupid Man' there wouldnt be half the outcry. They have bigger concerns to worry about than what Jeremy Corbyn muttered under his breath.

murphaph

badtoro wrote: »

I don't have time for her but it's kinda understandable she'd be entrenched in her views after that happening.

Surely she should be doing her utmost to prevent any border infrastructure appearing as no matter how wrong it would be, and it would be inexcusably wrong, there would be someone else shot in police uniform protecting this silly Brexit border. One dead PSNI officer is a price far too high to pay for the perceived right to continue using three pin plugs and other such nonsense.

Christy42

Distraction. Only Corbyn and a few people near him know if he said stupid woman or stupid people.

Stupid woman would have different connotations than stupid man though. If he said it he should apologise. I don't really get the point of getting so worked up when we don't know what he said.

As has been said the upcoming collapse of their economy unless they take action should possibly take center stage.

Leroy42

But once again, Corbyn has given TM a get out of jail free card.

No one is going to be talking about the 3500 soldiers being put on active duty. The £4bn+ spent on a no deal nobody seems to want. The fact she failed miserably to get any movement at the recent EU meeting. The fact that the cabinet is split. The fact that a number of her back-benchers has claimed they will resign if No deal becomes a policy. The fact that JRM and the ERG have done a complete 180 and now support TM.

Instead they will be talking about this remark.

Also, just on the remark. She is a woman, so factually he is correct to use that term. Whether she is stupid or not, well, 117 of her own party do not think she is fit to lead their party, so whilst she may not be stupid she is not exactly held in high regards. He was silly to do it though, for the reasons I have stated above.

And crazy that they will get worked up about this, but TM leads a government that has been found in contempt of parliament and hardly a word said!

Thatnastyboy

Christy42 wrote: »

Distraction. Only Corbyn and a few people near him know if he said stupid woman or stupid people.

Stupid woman would have different connotations than stupid man though. If he said it he should apologise. I don't really get the point of getting so worked up when we don't know what he said.

As has been said the upcoming collapse of their economy unless they take action should possibly take center stage.

Agree, it would have been wrong to call her a stupid man.

Baffling how they're worried about this, but not worried about the fact that everyone is now preparing for a crash out brexit...

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

You haven't answered why we should trust your judgement on violence returning over the Chief Constable of the PSNI, but that's okay as it seems we have moved on from that point.

You raised a point where Ireland will want to blame the UK if things get bad due to Brexit. You will need to explain to me how somehow the UK is not to blame for Brexit. Take it step by step on why the EU is to blame for any of this.

Then on the border, let's remember a few points. The Brexiters are objecting to the backstop being inserted but at the same time they argue that technology is available that will make the need for a backstop unnecessary. So they know that there are solutions that will ensure the backstop is not needed but they don't want the backstop in case these solutions they know is ready is not available that ensures there isn't a border. That makes zero sense.

Then if we think there are technology solutions and cameras and scanny things that will make the border frictionless, how is it not easier to have this installed at the 2(?) ports that have ferry services between Northern Ireland and the UK rather than the 208 crossings between Ireland and NI? You are going to need them to have goods checked for the ferry services between Ireland the the UK so the infrastructure will be there for that.

This way there will be no infrastructure at the border, access between Ireland and NI goes ahead as it does now without delays and cross border co-operation can continue as specified in the GFA. With the technology solutions at the ports and airports goods will have "no delay" as per Brexiteers between Ireland (and NI) and the UK so there is nothing to worry about in that sense.

In any case, Nicola Sturgeon has had her say about the new immigration plans and what it would do to Scotland.

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1075381141237059584

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1075383546217488384

Cameron laid the foundations for Scotland to leave the UK with his promises of more devolved powers during the Scottish Independence Referendum and then ignoring that pledge. The current government is cementing independence as soon as they leave the EU without a plan and forcing hardship on Scotland. The incompetence we are witnessing is really something.

And just imagine you were the opposition during all of this and not polling even 5 points better than the government. Any other time the leader of the opposition would be out of a job so quickly, yet somehow due to his own incompetence on Brexit Labour is where they are.

hotmail.com

Tories getting annoyed about the stupid woman comment is just bloody laughable. The hard right that hate Cornyn are the same lot that are "anti-pc". They should surely admire the honesty of Corbyn.

First Up

Enzokk wrote:

Then if we think there are technology solutions and cameras and scanny things that will make the border frictionless, how is it not easier to have this installed at the 2(?) ports that have ferry services between Northern Ireland and the UK rather than the 208 crossings between Ireland and NI? You are going to need them to have goods checked for the ferry services between Ireland the the UK so the infrastructure will be there for that.

The EU has been pointing this out to the UK for quite some but once again, the problem is ideological.

Enzokk

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Despite it being so pathetic in light of the current subject matter, I find PMQs so fasinating and amusing.

Looks like the media on Twitter are really trying to push the Stupid Woman soundbite. If TM had muttered 'Stupid Man' there wouldnt be half the outcry. They have bigger concerns to worry about than what Jeremy Corbyn muttered under his breath.

Christy42 wrote: »

Distraction. Only Corbyn and a few people near him know if he said stupid woman or stupid people.

Stupid woman would have different connotations than stupid man though. If he said it he should apologise. I don't really get the point of getting so worked up when we don't know what he said.

As has been said the upcoming collapse of their economy unless they take action should possibly take center stage.

This is a distraction at a time where one cannot be afforded. Phillip Hammond muttered the same phrase to a MP before. It is not language befitting any cabinet or shadow cabinet member, but it is not something that everyone including the actor Rob Lowe needs to be tweeting about.

In other news, just more stories of the referendum and meetings between Leave EU officials and Cambridge Analytica that has not been disclosed before.

Revealed: Arron Banks Brexit campaign's 'secret' meetings with Cambridge Analytica

Arron Banks’s Brexit campaign discussed ‘micro-targeting’ British voters during previously undisclosed meetings with Cambridge Analytica, openDemocracy can reveal, raising fresh concerns about ‘psychographic warfare technology’ used to target voters in the run up to the 2016 EU referendum.

Leave.EU told the UK Information Commissioner’s Office that it held only four meetings with Cambridge Analytica. Earlier this year, Banks also claimed to MPs that his Leave.EU campaign only “had two or three meetings” with Cambridge Analytica and had never paid the data analytics firms for any work.

But emails obtained by openDemocracy suggest that Banks’s Brexit campaign had additional meetings with the controversial data analytics firm, which they did not disclose either to parliament or to the information regulator, and in which they discussed in detail how to target British voters.

Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon was included in some of the email correspondence seen by openDemocracy, as was a former UKIP party secretary linked to Robert Mercer, the Trump-supporting hedge fund billionaire who controlled Cambridge Analytica.

Topics discussed at these meetings included fundraising for Leave.EU and how to build sophisticated target audiences for pro-Brexit adverts on Facebook, similar to those used by the Trump campaign.

The shame of this all will probably the realisation that will be too late that the reasons for Trump being impeached and/or resigning will have its fingerprints all over Brexit and the UK has done nothing to look into this properly or they have stalled and deflected all enquiries relating to this.

Enzokk

First Up wrote: »

The EU has been pointing this out to the UK for quite some but once again, the problem is ideological.

On the Remainiacs podcast they referred to Brexit as being like religion at this point. Those that believe in it doesn't need any evidence to the contrary as their belief in it is so strong.

As for the new immigration policy, Wes Streeting (Labour MP) just made a remark that the cabinet is good examples on how being highly paid and highly skilled are not the same.

hotmail.com

Sorry if this is a silly question, but will Irish citixens be exempt from the immigration rules in the future?

boggerman1

Pmq's today was pure pantomime stuff.if it wasn't so serious that in 100 days time Britain crashes out it would be good comedy tv.corbyn just gives the media an open goal fir them to distract from the cluster!!k about to happen by mouthing off.he's right in what he said but my god he's hopeless.
It's like as if he really doesn't want to become PM be it now or in 6 months time