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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

It really depends on how hard a crash out the UK chooses. Full on hard brexit will cause huge problems in NI. For example, the deal that maintains the electricity interconnecter dies. Even with a soft brexit, this is something that hasn't even been addressed yet. The first line in section 3 of Article 50 says "The treaties shall cease to apply".

But the worst aspect of this is that the UK has not been seriously preparing for brexit. The EU has. Have you looked at the EU preparedness notices? It's sobering reading. But wrt Irish freight to and from the continent, that route has already been set up and two of the biggest Ro-Ro ferries in the world are tasked for it.

Water John

£30,000 income was the threshold for immigrants yesterday. They have already rowed back on it this morning. They really haven't the foggiest notion where they are going and where they will end up with No Deal.

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

I am being accused of not opening my eyes (and it may be a fair challenge to me) but ignoring the roi predicament by continually pointing out uks is shortsighted.
I was talking to a dairy farmer the other day who said 90% of their milk crosses the border to factories in roi to turn it into powder etc of which over 90% goes to gb. In no deal scenario what is obvious long term solution. Seems obvious to me that the factories will be moving. So this is not all one way traffic.

You were talking to a Northern Irish farmer who has 90% of their milk cross the border on its way to Great Britain.. And your conclusion is that because of a border, the factories would have to move north?

Those factories in the south do not only cater to Northern Irish farmers. Where would the sense be in that? Surely if they're in the Republic, most of their milk comes from there as well, so why move and make their main suppliers deal with a border?

What is more realistic is that your Northern farmer simply has no factory to go to till adequate British factories are built up there. The powdered milk from the Irish factory finds a new home in Europe when British exports to it drop.

I have very little knowledge of this but that's what my instinct tells me.

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side.
It has been very badly handled by both sides
I think a referendum up in north would now go basically orange and green which was not the case.

Nationalists didn't vote for Brexit. The 44% of NI voters that did vote for it were overwhelmingly protestant/unionist. Many did that in the hopes of a hard border being erected and now it's biting them in the behind. No sympathy.

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

Fair enough. But does anyone on here believe it is all about finances and that identity does not come into it at all

Ok, so now it's identity. And how exactly does the status quo so negatively impact your identity?

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

I was talking to a dairy farmer the other day who said 90% of their milk crosses the border to factories in roi to turn it into powder etc of which over 90% goes to gb. In no deal scenario what is obvious long term solution. Seems obvious to me that the factories will be moving. So this is not all one way traffic.

NI dairy farmers go out of business through loss of access to EU market, RoI farmers adjust to fill the demand;
GB end-user goes out of business through loss of access to EU market, RoI competitor expands to fill the gap.

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

Fair enough. But does anyone on here believe it is all about finances and that identity does not come into it at all

Correct. But the UK is not willing to pay the price of reclaiming their 'identity'. Cake etc.

downcow

murphaph wrote: »

Are you a farmer in NI?

If so, you should be praying to God that NI can stay in the SM and CU indefinitely as if GB does decide to shift further away from the EU (perhaps after the DUP have been neutered through an unholy alliance of UKIP & Cons-anything is possible now) then British agriculture will be decimated through cheap foreign imports and at the same time GB would be completely excluded from the EU export market.

NI farmers would have the absolute luxury of being able to refocus their attention on the EU market in this scenario.

Fair enough. But does anyone on here believe it is all about finances and that identity does not come into it at all

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

I am being accused of not opening my eyes (and it may be a fair challenge to me) but ignoring the roi predicament by continually pointing out uks is shortsighted.
I was talking to a dairy farmer the other day who said 90% of their milk crosses the border to factories in roi to turn it into powder etc of which over 90% goes to gb. In no deal scenario what is obvious long term solution. Seems obvious to me that the factories will be moving. So this is not all one way traffic.

The Ulster Farmers Union are terrified of a No Deal.

downcow

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Because we will still be in the club with our 26 other mates. Do you know as a percentage how much NI goods transit via Ireland?

I am being accused of not opening my eyes (and it may be a fair challenge to me) but ignoring the roi predicament by continually pointing out uks is shortsighted.
I was talking to a dairy farmer the other day who said 90% of their milk crosses the border to factories in roi to turn it into powder etc of which over 90% goes to gb. In no deal scenario what is obvious long term solution. Seems obvious to me that the factories will be moving. So this is not all one way traffic.

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

Why are you not angry at your Uk government for putting you in this situation in the first place?

Do you think most Irish people are enjoying this situation? I've a parent who is on her way to the chemist this morning to make sure she will have access to her medications (or alternatives) if brexit comes to pass and there are shortages of stock coming from the UK. Do you think she's relishing the thought of "blaming the Brits" for all of this? Or do you think she is more concerned with sorting through the day to day and hoping Westminster get their house in order, and agree SOMETHING so we in Ireland can move on.

We know we will take a hit. Its not going to be pretty whatever happens.
And no personally I'll take my long-term chances in ROI.

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

Thanks very clear. My problem is this continual double talk from Eu etc ie NI should not worry about the backstop being permanent but in the next breath saying we insist we keep you over s barrel just in case and insist ireland have a veto in keeping backstop for ever.

Are you a farmer in NI?

If so, you should be praying to God that NI can stay in the SM and CU indefinitely as if GB does decide to shift further away from the EU (perhaps after the DUP have been neutered through an unholy alliance of UKIP & Cons-anything is possible now) then British agriculture will be decimated through cheap foreign imports and at the same time GB would be completely excluded from the EU export market.

NI farmers would have the absolute luxury of being able to refocus their attention on the EU market in this scenario.

RobMc59

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If our produce were to rot in Dublin, this would be a problem for the UK too, since they import half the food they eat. If it is rotting in Dublin or Calais, it is not on a supermarket shelf in Chelsea.

So we all lose out because of BJ,JRM and the rest of their jolly chums.:(

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

Our stuff won't be rotting in the ports. As of a few months ago, the world's largest RoRo ship (Celine) is running directly from Dublin to Zeebrugge. The EU has designated certain continental ports to handle our traffic and provided funding to carry out the necessary infrastructure improvements.

And, of course, our farmers and food processors will remain part of the single market, so will have direct and immediate access to the space on the continental supermarket shelves that used to be filled with foodstuffs produced in the UK.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

I'd say he's bricking it.

Nah - the Tories know they'll be safely on the opposition benches soon, it'll be Corbyn's mess to sort out.

mickoneill31

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

I'm happy enough to be part of the EU if the sh1t hits the fan. 9 of the 10 poorest regions in the EU are in the UK (one of those is NI) . Brexit is not going to improve that and likely to make them worse off.

Yes we should be and are working together. That doesn't mean capitulation to the UK just because they've dictated their contradictory red lines and expect the EU to bend over.

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

If our produce were to rot in Dublin, this would be a problem for the UK too, since they import half the food they eat. If it is rotting in Dublin or Calais, it is not on a supermarket shelf in Chelsea.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

They haven't thought that far ahead. But JRM has already claimed that it may take 50 years before they see the real benefits, so they are already starting to make their excuses.

So JRM can see 50 years ahead but is a bit fuzzy about next April.

Sums it up really.

Phonehead

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

You clearly haven't done any research or read/listened to any analysis on the consequences of a full Brexit crash out. Yes Ireland will suffer but the UK will suffer catastrophically. I don't believe you are a genuine contributor to this conversation if I'm honest. You've ignored all well thought out responses to your nonsense and still best the same drum

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

Grand; but they will have left long before then so there isn't much point looking to the EU to fix it.

So what happens next?

They haven't thought that far ahead. But JRM has already claimed that it may take 50 years before they see the real benefits, so they are already starting to make their excuses.

One person that really must be dreading a crash out (and thus no transition) is Liam Fox. He has basically been on a jolly for the last two years. No actual targets or deliverables.

Crash out and suddenly on 30th March everyone will want to see exactly what he has up his sleeve. Will he have 10, 20, 40, 100 trade deals ready to go? Who with, for what and on what conditions?

If not (as technically he can't negotiate until 30th March) what are the plans? Deadlines, what to do in the meantime, how will business recoup the extra costs, deal with the open borders etc.

I'd say he's bricking it.

LeinsterDub

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

Because we will still be in the club with our 26 other mates. Do you know as a percentage how much NI goods transit via Ireland?

prawnsambo

The talk of a technological solution has to stop. It's complete nonsense. As a customs officer said to a guy I follow on twitter: "Cameras can't look inside vehicles". And that's the crux of the matter. You can talk about 'trusted traders' and onsite checks in warehouses, but an open border between two different customs jurisdictions is an invitation to smugglers. There are and have been smuggling operations across open borders with much less differentiation between the two jurisdictions on either side. Like diesel smuggling across the NI border. Or cigarettes across the Gbralter border. And of course, if such a solution existed, you'd think the Swiss, Norwegians, Turkish etc. would have gladly gobbled it up. Anybody who could come up with such a system, would be Euromillions wealthy in a very short time.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think you are failing to understand just how toxic the EU has been allowed to be painted in the UK.

The EU are the foundation for each and every ill. Just look at the debate, on here and in the UK, regarding the backstop. It is the EU being troublesome, making a play on NI to try to stop the UK leaving. Using the GFA to politicise the border.

Even the £39bn is seen as blackmail money being demanded by the EU rather than the reality that it is obligations for freely entered into agreement and budget.

If the reality is as bad as the potential claims, are even if its just flowers rotting at the port, do you really think the local Tory MP is going to simply accept the responsibility for it? Not a chance. It will be the EU to blame, maybe Ireland, probably Turkey and potentially foreigners. But it certainly will not be the UK to blame

That certainly will be the case initially. However, when everybody has moved on (hopefully in our case) and their economy continues to lag, then people will ask where is the glorious future that they were promised? I'd give it about a year before the press runs out of EU stories - not least because the EU will no longer have any influence that can be demonised.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

Well, the UK government will do as they have done for the last 40+ years. Blame the EU, claim that they will do something about it, and then claim that it is impossible to work with such a protectionist elitest, anti-democratic agency.

Grand; but they will have left long before then so there isn't much point looking to the EU to fix it.

So what happens next?

badtoro

downcow wrote: »

Thargor wrote: »

Oh great get your crayons out its time for another 16 pages of downcow learns about international trade.

I’m not going to get drawn into personalising this. That is usually the action taken by someone who is beginning to realise that an issue isn’t just as black and white as they thought it was and know they aren’t good at getting their head around anything that is not simple black and white (or orange and green).
At least that is some success ðŸ˜€

While I laughed at the comment, it was perhaps against the spirit of the season.

That aside, the final sentences of your own post - without offense - do make me pity those with that point of view. The UK really are in the ha'penny place, the entire world can see it.

downcow

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

They can blame who they like but it will fall to the UK government to do something about it.

Well, the UK government will do as they have done for the last 40+ years. Blame the EU, claim that they will do something about it, and then claim that it is impossible to work with such a protectionist elitest, anti-democratic agency.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.

(a) The UK could have taken back some control if it had decided to exercise its concessions to sovereignty that come with EU membership, e.g. limiting EU migrants' access to benefits like most of the other EU countries do. But apparently the Westminster that decided to not exercise control can be trusted to exercise control now that it has no say in the matter.

(b) The €39bn divorce bill largely represents payments for the UK's suits in the EU. What were they doing to justify their EU salaries if they weren't representing Britain's interest?

(c) The UK has certainly engaged in a lot of screaming over the years, but also contributed to the EU that we have today, e.g. Article 50 was drafted by the UK; blocking third countries from accessing Galileo was a UK proposal; the EU pet passport system was proposed, designed and implemented by the UK.

Like it or not, as JRM & Co. constantly remind us, the UK voted for Brexit - so the UK is 100% to blame for this situation. No-one else.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

If the reality is as bad as the potential claims, are even if its just flowers rotting at the port, do you really think the local Tory MP is going to simply accept the responsibility for it? Not a chance. It will be the EU to blame, maybe Ireland, probably Turkey and potentially foreigners. But it certainly will not be the UK to blame

They can blame who they like but it will fall to the UK government to do something about it.

[Deleted User]

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Something that has been bugging me is people (correctly) saying that UK will blame EU for everything going wrong. However the obvious question that these posters are missing is what happens afterwards.
If you are a florist for example and your product is rotting at port, you can't become angry at EU as you would quickly realise UK has left and you no longer have representation in Europe, so your anger will be directed at local politicians as they are ones with any power to do anything.
This will lead to mass resignations and an election post hard brexit while Rome continues to burn.

You have a lot of faith in the British people which I can't agree with after the last few years. Plenty of establishment politicians will muddle through and angry votes tend to be stupid votes. There are plenty who will buy into the "Bloody EU!" line.