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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

Yes. I don’t think checks at the Irish sea would create a big problem but the way it has been approached ie “we won’t tolerate anything at Irish border or channel end off. You must split your country down the middle”. This is the arrogance that is driving the brexiteers

You talk about splitting your country... I think you should be pointing your finger at those holding power in Westminster and the DUP who are propping them up. They ran a successful campaign with nary a word mentioned about your 6 counties.
If you end up with a referendum that splits you into green and orange don't try to blame the EU or Leo Varadkar, whose predecessor did try to warn the UK electorate about the pitfalls ahead.

RobMc59

Thargor wrote: »

Oh great get your crayons out its time for another 16 pages of downcow learns about international trade.

If he has a different viewpoint to yours there's no need to act like that.

First Up

RobMc59 wrote:

If he has a different viewpoint to yours there's no need to act like that.

Well it does get frustrating when you are in discussion with people who don't know what they are talking about.

But at least its only on Boards. Imagine if it was with those in charge of Brexit......

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Something that has been bugging me is people (correctly) saying that UK will blame EU for everything going wrong. However the obvious question that these posters are missing is what happens afterwards.
If you are a florist for example and your product is rotting at port, you can't become angry at EU as you would quickly realise UK has left and you no longer have representation in Europe, so your anger will be directed at local politicians as they are ones with any power to do anything.
This will lead to mass resignations and an election post hard brexit while Rome continues to burn.

That's a good point. There's will be only so much finger pointing that Farage, Mogg and Johnson can do. When they're out on their own and their economy is tanking, the EU will simply be another place just like the US or India.

Leroy42

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Something that has been bugging me is people (correctly) saying that UK will blame EU for everything going wrong. However the obvious question that these posters are missing is what happens afterwards.
If you are a florist for example and your product is rotting at port, you can't become angry at EU as you would quickly realise UK has left and you no longer have representation in Europe, so your anger will be directed at local politicians as they are ones with any power to do anything.
This will lead to mass resignations and an election post hard brexit while Rome continues to burn.

But for that to happen they would have to accept that all they were told by the UK politicians was wrong. I see no evidence of that happening. If anything, they are doubling-down on their beliefs.

So the flowers are only rotting at the port because the EU are punishing them for attempting to leave and if only the EU acted in good faith then none of this would be happening.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island.

That honest analysis was done three years ago, before the referendum took place. The Brexiteers opted to not include the conclusions in their campaign propaganda. The analysis was repeated when the referendum result was announced, and the EU came up with a reasonable, sensitive solution, tailored specifically to the needs of both NI communities. The Brexiteers, egged on by the DUP, decided England's nationalistic ambitions superseded the interest of NI.

downcow wrote: »

There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help.

"English Channel" makes no sense in respect of Ireland, and besides everyone knows that the checks there will be the stuff of nightmares. These are the real, planned-for, money-being-spent-and-people-signing-contracts changes that happening as we speak ... yet you're still talking about it as if it's hypothetical?

As for "technology/cloud" - well, the EU has said it'll seriously consider any such proposal just as soon as the UK produces evidence of even one system that would do what's expected of it. Right now, there is no technology/cloud solution working anywhere in the world, and no company given a contract to develop it, and the UK's performance in delivering workable IT solutions is hardly reassuring.

So for practical purposes, that leaves only two points of control for goods entering and leaving NI - the Irish Sea and the NI-RoI border. Exactly how it was when this whole sorry saga began.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

That honest analysis was done three years ago, before the referendum took place. The Brexiteers opted to not include the conclusions in their campaign propaganda. The analysis was repeated when the referendum result was announced, and the EU came up with a reasonable, sensitive solution, tailored specifically to the needs of both NI communities. The Brexiteers, egged on by the DUP, decided England's nationalistic ambitions superseded the interest of NI.

"English Channel" makes no sense in respect of Ireland, and besides everyone knows that the checks there will be the stuff of nightmares. These are the real, planned-for, money-being-spent-and-people-signing-contracts changes that happening as we speak ... yet you're still talking about it as if it's hypothetical?

As for "technology/cloud" - well, the EU has said it'll seriously consider any such proposal just as soon as the UK produces evidence of even one system that would do what's expected of it. Right now, there is no technology/cloud solution working anywhere in the world, and no company given a contract to develop it, and the UK's performance in delivering workable IT solutions is hardly reassuring.

So for practical purposes, that leaves only two points of control for goods entering and leaving NI - the Irish Sea and the NI-RoI border. Exactly how it was when this whole sorry saga began.

When somebody shows me how technology can screen thousands of lorries for chlorinated chicken, then I'll be interested in a technological solution

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's a good point. There's will be only so much finger pointing that Farage, Mogg and Johnson can do. When they're out on their own and their economy is tanking, the EU will simply be another place just like the US or India.

I think you are failing to understand just how toxic the EU has been allowed to be painted in the UK.

The EU are the foundation for each and every ill. Just look at the debate, on here and in the UK, regarding the backstop. It is the EU being troublesome, making a play on NI to try to stop the UK leaving. Using the GFA to politicise the border.

Even the £39bn is seen as blackmail money being demanded by the EU rather than the reality that it is obligations for freely entered into agreement and budget.

If the reality is as bad as the potential claims, are even if its just flowers rotting at the port, do you really think the local Tory MP is going to simply accept the responsibility for it? Not a chance. It will be the EU to blame, maybe Ireland, probably Turkey and potentially foreigners. But it certainly will not be the UK to blame

[Deleted User]

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Something that has been bugging me is people (correctly) saying that UK will blame EU for everything going wrong. However the obvious question that these posters are missing is what happens afterwards.
If you are a florist for example and your product is rotting at port, you can't become angry at EU as you would quickly realise UK has left and you no longer have representation in Europe, so your anger will be directed at local politicians as they are ones with any power to do anything.
This will lead to mass resignations and an election post hard brexit while Rome continues to burn.

You have a lot of faith in the British people which I can't agree with after the last few years. Plenty of establishment politicians will muddle through and angry votes tend to be stupid votes. There are plenty who will buy into the "Bloody EU!" line.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

If the reality is as bad as the potential claims, are even if its just flowers rotting at the port, do you really think the local Tory MP is going to simply accept the responsibility for it? Not a chance. It will be the EU to blame, maybe Ireland, probably Turkey and potentially foreigners. But it certainly will not be the UK to blame

They can blame who they like but it will fall to the UK government to do something about it.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.

(a) The UK could have taken back some control if it had decided to exercise its concessions to sovereignty that come with EU membership, e.g. limiting EU migrants' access to benefits like most of the other EU countries do. But apparently the Westminster that decided to not exercise control can be trusted to exercise control now that it has no say in the matter.

(b) The €39bn divorce bill largely represents payments for the UK's suits in the EU. What were they doing to justify their EU salaries if they weren't representing Britain's interest?

(c) The UK has certainly engaged in a lot of screaming over the years, but also contributed to the EU that we have today, e.g. Article 50 was drafted by the UK; blocking third countries from accessing Galileo was a UK proposal; the EU pet passport system was proposed, designed and implemented by the UK.

Like it or not, as JRM & Co. constantly remind us, the UK voted for Brexit - so the UK is 100% to blame for this situation. No-one else.

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

They can blame who they like but it will fall to the UK government to do something about it.

Well, the UK government will do as they have done for the last 40+ years. Blame the EU, claim that they will do something about it, and then claim that it is impossible to work with such a protectionist elitest, anti-democratic agency.

downcow

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

badtoro

downcow wrote: »

Thargor wrote: »

Oh great get your crayons out its time for another 16 pages of downcow learns about international trade.

I’m not going to get drawn into personalising this. That is usually the action taken by someone who is beginning to realise that an issue isn’t just as black and white as they thought it was and know they aren’t good at getting their head around anything that is not simple black and white (or orange and green).
At least that is some success ðŸ˜€

While I laughed at the comment, it was perhaps against the spirit of the season.

That aside, the final sentences of your own post - without offense - do make me pity those with that point of view. The UK really are in the ha'penny place, the entire world can see it.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

Well, the UK government will do as they have done for the last 40+ years. Blame the EU, claim that they will do something about it, and then claim that it is impossible to work with such a protectionist elitest, anti-democratic agency.

Grand; but they will have left long before then so there isn't much point looking to the EU to fix it.

So what happens next?

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think you are failing to understand just how toxic the EU has been allowed to be painted in the UK.

The EU are the foundation for each and every ill. Just look at the debate, on here and in the UK, regarding the backstop. It is the EU being troublesome, making a play on NI to try to stop the UK leaving. Using the GFA to politicise the border.

Even the £39bn is seen as blackmail money being demanded by the EU rather than the reality that it is obligations for freely entered into agreement and budget.

If the reality is as bad as the potential claims, are even if its just flowers rotting at the port, do you really think the local Tory MP is going to simply accept the responsibility for it? Not a chance. It will be the EU to blame, maybe Ireland, probably Turkey and potentially foreigners. But it certainly will not be the UK to blame

That certainly will be the case initially. However, when everybody has moved on (hopefully in our case) and their economy continues to lag, then people will ask where is the glorious future that they were promised? I'd give it about a year before the press runs out of EU stories - not least because the EU will no longer have any influence that can be demonised.

prawnsambo

The talk of a technological solution has to stop. It's complete nonsense. As a customs officer said to a guy I follow on twitter: "Cameras can't look inside vehicles". And that's the crux of the matter. You can talk about 'trusted traders' and onsite checks in warehouses, but an open border between two different customs jurisdictions is an invitation to smugglers. There are and have been smuggling operations across open borders with much less differentiation between the two jurisdictions on either side. Like diesel smuggling across the NI border. Or cigarettes across the Gbralter border. And of course, if such a solution existed, you'd think the Swiss, Norwegians, Turkish etc. would have gladly gobbled it up. Anybody who could come up with such a system, would be Euromillions wealthy in a very short time.

LeinsterDub

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

Because we will still be in the club with our 26 other mates. Do you know as a percentage how much NI goods transit via Ireland?

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

Grand; but they will have left long before then so there isn't much point looking to the EU to fix it.

So what happens next?

They haven't thought that far ahead. But JRM has already claimed that it may take 50 years before they see the real benefits, so they are already starting to make their excuses.

One person that really must be dreading a crash out (and thus no transition) is Liam Fox. He has basically been on a jolly for the last two years. No actual targets or deliverables.

Crash out and suddenly on 30th March everyone will want to see exactly what he has up his sleeve. Will he have 10, 20, 40, 100 trade deals ready to go? Who with, for what and on what conditions?

If not (as technically he can't negotiate until 30th March) what are the plans? Deadlines, what to do in the meantime, how will business recoup the extra costs, deal with the open borders etc.

I'd say he's bricking it.

Phonehead

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

You clearly haven't done any research or read/listened to any analysis on the consequences of a full Brexit crash out. Yes Ireland will suffer but the UK will suffer catastrophically. I don't believe you are a genuine contributor to this conversation if I'm honest. You've ignored all well thought out responses to your nonsense and still best the same drum

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

They haven't thought that far ahead. But JRM has already claimed that it may take 50 years before they see the real benefits, so they are already starting to make their excuses.

So JRM can see 50 years ahead but is a bit fuzzy about next April.

Sums it up really.

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

If our produce were to rot in Dublin, this would be a problem for the UK too, since they import half the food they eat. If it is rotting in Dublin or Calais, it is not on a supermarket shelf in Chelsea.

mickoneill31

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

I'm happy enough to be part of the EU if the sh1t hits the fan. 9 of the 10 poorest regions in the EU are in the UK (one of those is NI) . Brexit is not going to improve that and likely to make them worse off.

Yes we should be and are working together. That doesn't mean capitulation to the UK just because they've dictated their contradictory red lines and expect the EU to bend over.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

I'd say he's bricking it.

Nah - the Tories know they'll be safely on the opposition benches soon, it'll be Corbyn's mess to sort out.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

Our stuff won't be rotting in the ports. As of a few months ago, the world's largest RoRo ship (Celine) is running directly from Dublin to Zeebrugge. The EU has designated certain continental ports to handle our traffic and provided funding to carry out the necessary infrastructure improvements.

And, of course, our farmers and food processors will remain part of the single market, so will have direct and immediate access to the space on the continental supermarket shelves that used to be filled with foodstuffs produced in the UK.

RobMc59

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If our produce were to rot in Dublin, this would be a problem for the UK too, since they import half the food they eat. If it is rotting in Dublin or Calais, it is not on a supermarket shelf in Chelsea.

So we all lose out because of BJ,JRM and the rest of their jolly chums.:(

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

Thanks very clear. My problem is this continual double talk from Eu etc ie NI should not worry about the backstop being permanent but in the next breath saying we insist we keep you over s barrel just in case and insist ireland have a veto in keeping backstop for ever.

Are you a farmer in NI?

If so, you should be praying to God that NI can stay in the SM and CU indefinitely as if GB does decide to shift further away from the EU (perhaps after the DUP have been neutered through an unholy alliance of UKIP & Cons-anything is possible now) then British agriculture will be decimated through cheap foreign imports and at the same time GB would be completely excluded from the EU export market.

NI farmers would have the absolute luxury of being able to refocus their attention on the EU market in this scenario.

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

I am not clear why many posters on here seem to think NI is going to be in a bigger mess than ROI. If the sh1t hits the fan I would rather be in the UK than ireland. But we should be genuinely working together to ensure the sh1t doesn’t hit the fan.
When your stuff is rotting at the ports you will be ok cause you will have the pleasure of blaming the brits for it all

Why are you not angry at your Uk government for putting you in this situation in the first place?

Do you think most Irish people are enjoying this situation? I've a parent who is on her way to the chemist this morning to make sure she will have access to her medications (or alternatives) if brexit comes to pass and there are shortages of stock coming from the UK. Do you think she's relishing the thought of "blaming the Brits" for all of this? Or do you think she is more concerned with sorting through the day to day and hoping Westminster get their house in order, and agree SOMETHING so we in Ireland can move on.

We know we will take a hit. Its not going to be pretty whatever happens.
And no personally I'll take my long-term chances in ROI.

downcow

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Because we will still be in the club with our 26 other mates. Do you know as a percentage how much NI goods transit via Ireland?

I am being accused of not opening my eyes (and it may be a fair challenge to me) but ignoring the roi predicament by continually pointing out uks is shortsighted.
I was talking to a dairy farmer the other day who said 90% of their milk crosses the border to factories in roi to turn it into powder etc of which over 90% goes to gb. In no deal scenario what is obvious long term solution. Seems obvious to me that the factories will be moving. So this is not all one way traffic.

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

I am being accused of not opening my eyes (and it may be a fair challenge to me) but ignoring the roi predicament by continually pointing out uks is shortsighted.
I was talking to a dairy farmer the other day who said 90% of their milk crosses the border to factories in roi to turn it into powder etc of which over 90% goes to gb. In no deal scenario what is obvious long term solution. Seems obvious to me that the factories will be moving. So this is not all one way traffic.

The Ulster Farmers Union are terrified of a No Deal.