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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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LeinsterDub

downcow wrote: »

undemocratic conglomerate of 27 states.

Unelected head of state.
Unelected second house
House elected by first past the post.
Minority government destroying constitutional norms.

How is it the EU that's undemocratic?

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

No deal exit 40%

I don't think it is that high, and I don't think it matters much, because a month after a No Deal the new PM (perhaps of a new party!) will be back in talks with the EU looking for a deal, and the backstop will be item 1 on the agenda.

flatty

downcow wrote: »

Did they give any sense of what this ‘5%’ would look like. I can’t understand how it can be percentage. I think it is all or nothing. ie while it requires both Eu and UK to end it then any of the 28 countries can ensure it continues for ever. That’s the issue as I see it ie it will be permanent

They didn't, but it worried me slightly to be honest. May's deal should go, and her with it. She has all the makings of an Erdoğan-lite.
Her words and actions are an affront to leadership and democracy.

Akrasia

downcow wrote: »

I appreciate most people’s efforts on here to be honest about how they see it. Unfortunately as someone who certainly is not a dup voter and supported gfa and enjoy many friendships across the border, I see no way out of this.
I don’t believe there is an example anywhere in the world of a nation giving up a permanent veto on how the border should be managed to another state never mind such an undemocratic conglomerate of 27 states. It makes no sense and can’t happen.
And yes I understand why you all desire it.
My guess of chances going forward for what’s it worth, having read all your comments
Renegotiated deal 40%
No deal exit 40%
Mays deal 10%
Remain 5%
Something none of us have thought about 5%

There are shared borders everywhere. In fact, all borders are shared, and everywhere there are shared open borders, there are agreements on how goods are transited. There is always the option to unilaterally shut down a border at any time, but such a decision would have consequences that could start a conflict.

All borders are both mutual agreements and subject to veto.

This talk about the UK being unable to pull out not the backstop is wrong. The UK could pull out of everything and anything, they just can't do it without the consequences of having breached their international treaties.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

I appreciate most people’s efforts on here to be honest about how they see it. Unfortunately as someone who certainly is not a dup voter and supported gfa and enjoy many friendships across the border, I see no way out of this.
I don’t believe there is an example anywhere in the world of a nation giving up a permanent veto on how the border should be managed to another state never mind such an undemocratic conglomerate of 27 states. It makes no sense and can’t happen.
And yes I understand why you all desire it.
My guess of chances going forward for what’s it worth, having read all your comments
Renegotiated deal 40%
No deal exit 40%
Mays deal 10%
Remain 5%
Something none of us have thought about 5%

That is all fine, but you continually seem to place the blame onto the EU for this. This is what Brexit means, remember TM and Brexit means Brexit?

Well BRexit means either giving up the regulatory alignment of NI or installing a hard border. But, still, the UK cannot come to terms with the choice they face and want someone else to simply magic it away for them.

Enda Kenny tried to warn them, even TM tried to warn them before the vote. But the voters of the UK knew better (and since they hate being told they didn't know what they voted for it is only fair to accept that they did and they understood this would be the outcome).

The HoC seem aghast at this outcome, but it was always going to be this choice. Nothing substantial has changed from the EU side (although they have given in the many TM demands IMO).

So if it is really as unsolvable as you claim, then the only reasonable action for the UK to take is to accept they screwed up, and cancel A50. But they won't do that as it makes them feel bad so onwards we go into the abyss.

RobMc59

zapitastas wrote: »

Combat ineffective in that they were deploying bombs that were devestating large areas of English cities? Insurance companies were running scared. It was the canary warf bomb that focused minds on the process towards the GFA. The BA may still be in the north in small numbers but the visible evidence of their presence that used to scar the countryside has long since been removed

If the ira hadn't blew up the school bus Arlene Foster was on she probably would be a different person now and not the DUP leader-so it could be said that tactic was counter productive.

downcow

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is all fine, but you continually seem to place the blame onto the EU for this. This is what Brexit means, remember TM and Brexit means Brexit?

Well BRexit means either giving up the regulatory alignment of NI or installing a hard border. But, still, the UK cannot come to terms with the choice they face and want someone else to simply magic it away for them.

Enda Kenny tried to warn them, even TM tried to warn them before the vote. But the voters of the UK knew better (and since they hate being told they didn't know what they voted for it is only fair to accept that they did and they understood this would be the outcome).

The HoC seem aghast at this outcome, but it was always going to be this choice. Nothing substantial has changed from the EU side (although they have given in the many TM demands IMO).

So if it is really as unsolvable as you claim, then the only reasonable action for the UK to take is to accept they screwed up, and cancel A50. But they won't do that as it makes them feel bad so onwards we go into the abyss.

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

LeinsterDub

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the ira hadn't blew up the school bus Arlene Foster was on she probably would be a different person now and not the DUP leader-so it could be said that tactic was counter productive.

And if my aunt had balls...... I don't think anything productive is going to come from creating alternate histories.

First Up

downcow wrote:

I donâ€™t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control. For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

downcow wrote:

I donâ€™t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.

One of the main drivers in creating the Single Market was a lady called Margaret Thatcher.

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.

This is absolutely bizarre, and somewhat detached from reality.

The UK are to blame, and you somehow think that there were no UK 'suits' in EU? The reality is that the UK are being hoisted by their own petard in a lot of what's happening. Take Galileo for example, it was UK 'suits' that stuck/worked on the clause that only member states would have access to the system.

Christy42

downcow wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is all fine, but you continually seem to place the blame onto the EU for this. This is what Brexit means, remember TM and Brexit means Brexit?

Well BRexit means either giving up the regulatory alignment of NI or installing a hard border. But, still, the UK cannot come to terms with the choice they face and want someone else to simply magic it away for them.

Enda Kenny tried to warn them, even TM tried to warn them before the vote. But the voters of the UK knew better (and since they hate being told they didn't know what they voted for it is only fair to accept that they did and they understood this would be the outcome).

The HoC seem aghast at this outcome, but it was always going to be this choice. Nothing substantial has changed from the EU side (although they have given in the many TM demands IMO).

So if it is really as unsolvable as you claim, then the only reasonable action for the UK to take is to accept they screwed up, and cancel A50. But they won't do that as it makes them feel bad so onwards we go into the abyss.

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

Checks will happen in the channel. Both sides are happy with that. Both sides say they don't want it at the ni border so that leaves technology and Irish sea. The UK want technology but don't want to show what it is or any feasibility studies. As soon as they do the sea border can go.

I see this as the EU completely willing to accept the UKs solution when they have the actual product. The UK is pulling a huff and swearing they can have it without actually having it.

The UK is free to leave if they want some control back but if they could provide a solution it would be handy. The EU has been available for 2 years to negotiate and has presented a range of potential options for the UK. The UK has provided a backstop that will turn into a hard border in a few years time despite their claims of not wanting KT.

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

Up to now, the UK and Ireland have been fellow members of the EU, agreeing amongst ourselves inside the club. Now, you are leaving the club, things are different.

We are in a more adversarial relationship - the EU and Irish government sticking up for Irish and EU citizens, and the UK government sticking up for Eton&Oxford toffee nosed rich boys in Chelsea. Because those posh boys and girls need DUP support at the moment, they are pretending to care about the backstop. That will last until the next election, and then they will throw the DUP under the Brexit bus and sign up to the backstop.

Welcome to Brexitland.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

Of course the UK are to blame. Who else? Everything was working fine (from a border POV) prior to the ref, then something changed. Can't quite put my finger on it.

So the UK have decided to leave the EU, and 1 of the many consequences of that is that a decision has to be made in terms of the border in NI.

The EU have given the UK plenty of options, it is totally false to say they have not negotiated. They originally agreed with TM that a backstop would be in place unless and until.

TM then had second thoughts and wanted a UK wide CU. EU initially said no, but agreed as they see this as getting the solution overall. Ah, but the backstop is still in place, so the UK doesn't want that either.

So basically, the UK want the border to simply be ignored, allowed to remain as it is as if nothing has happened. But what about the integrity of the EU market? The UK answers to that is that is not that important and certainly less important than their problems so the EU need to solve the problem.

Kicking and screaming? You mean the democratically elected representatives of the UK had no say it what was happening within the EU? Despite being one of the senior members? Despite having all these advantages that will see them become the leading trade negotiator in the world post Brexit?

This is another fundamental dicotomy at the heart of the Brexit argument. Appartently the UK is so big and so important that EU will have option but to not only negotiate but to agree with the UK demands, yet the reason they must leave is that the EU do not value the UK and have worked completely against their interests for the last 40+ years.

The EU have said that they are willing to allow the border to remain open with additional checks in Irish Sea. That that seems a no go either. So no border, no checks on the Irish Sea, no regulatory alignment, no FoM.

One side does seem to be trying, whilst the other seems to be totally focused on only one answer.

downcow

Christy42 wrote: »

.....Both sides say they don't want it at the ni border.....

.....The UK has provided a backstop that will turn into a hard border in a few years time despite their claims of not wanting KT.

So which is it?
I think we all know that the UK would like a conversation about what might be possible at the Irish border but ireland will not let the discussion even start. So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The latest episode of Brexit republic is great

Brexit Republic Ep 22 18-12-18

12/18/18 by RTÉ:Ireland

Episode: https://www.rte.ie/cspodcasts/media.mp3?c1=2&c2=16951747&ns_site=test&ns_type=clickin&rte_vs_ct=aud&rte_vs_sc=pod&rte_mt_sec=radio&rte_vs_sn=radio1&rte_mt_pub_dt=2018-12-18&rte_mt_prg_name=test-brexitrepublic&title=Brexit%20Republic%20Ep%2022%2018-12-18&c7=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2018%2F1218%2F20181218_webexclusi-brexitrepublic-brexitrepu_c21480725_21480730_232_.mp3&r=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2018%2F1218%2F20181218_webexclusi-brexitrepublic-brexitrepu_c21480725_21480730_232_.mp3

On Thursday, December 13 Sir Ivan Rogers delivered a hard-hitting speech to the University of Liverpool's Heseltine Institute. He had a robust analysis of the current Brexit debate most recent speech. The Heseltine Institute has kindly provided us with the audio of the speech for this podcast.

It is excellent. Here is a transcript:https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

So which is it?
I think we all know that the UK would like a conversation about what might be possible at the Irish border but ireland will not let the discussion even start. So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.

What compromise should the EU offer?

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.

If a hard border (at least on paper) is needed because of a crashout, that is bad, but it can be undone directly in the next phase of talks where the UK come looking for a free trade deal: item 1: pay your bills. Item 2, citizens rights. Item 3, backstop. Item 4, free trade agreement.

But if we agree to a hard border to allow May to pass her deal, that is much worse, because it is much harder to undo.

Russman

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

To be fair, its of the UK's own making (the current crisis that is). I don't think anyone would suggest the EU is by any means squeaky clean.
To me, the Irish Sea is the logical place for controls if the DUP could only see that it doesn't threaten them and they'd get the best of both worlds. English Channel is never going to happen as the EU won't cut off one of its own members because it suits a country that left/is leaving. Technology/cloud is years away IMO.

As for "take back control" - of what exactly ? What rules or arrangements have actually been to the detriment of the UK ? It all seems a bit woolly and notional tbh (no offence).

downcow

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What compromise should the EU offer?

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side.
It has been very badly handled by both sides
I think a referendum up in north would now go basically orange and green which was not the case.

downcow

Russman wrote: »

To be fair, its of the UK's own making (the current crisis that is). I don't think anyone would suggest the EU is by any means squeaky clean.
To me, the Irish Sea is the logical place for controls if the DUP could only see that it doesn't threaten them and they'd get the best of both worlds. English Channel is never going to happen as the EU won't cut off one of its own members because it suits a country that left/is leaving. Technology/cloud is years away IMO.

As for "take back control" - of what exactly ? What rules or arrangements have actually been to the detriment of the UK ? It all seems a bit woolly and notional tbh (no offence).

Yes. I don’t think checks at the Irish sea would create a big problem but the way it has been approached ie “we won’t tolerate anything at Irish border or channel end off. You must split your country down the middle”. This is the arrogance that is driving the brexiteers

Podge_irl

downcow wrote: »

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side.

Ireland has done far more work on this issue than anyone in the UK has.

However, you are getting everything in the wrong order. The EU is perfectly willing to have this conversation, and indeed it will be necessary and unavoidable, as part of the negotiation on the Free Trade Agreement that both they and the UK want to sign.

That is not what is currently being discussed - the Withdrawl Agreement is a completely different issue. The WA will have effect until the FTA comes into effect.

Thargor

Oh great get your crayons out its time for another 16 pages of downcow learns about international trade.

Podge_irl

downcow wrote: »

Yes. I don’t think checks at the Irish sea would create a big problem but the way it has been approached ie “we won’t tolerate anything at Irish border or channel end off. You must split your country down the middle”. This is the arrogance that is driving the brexiteers

The UK's position on the Irish border is ultimately the same as Ireland's - that there will be no hard border. Only one side seems to understand the realities of what that means though.

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

So which is it?
I think we all know that the UK would like a conversation about what might be possible at the Irish border but ireland will not let the discussion even start. So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.

But the UK has started that conversation about what is possible at the NI border. They've talked about trusted trader and technology. That conversation has taken place. And have you heard those words "unless and until" wrt the backstop? Well as soon as that technology is shown as real and reliable well no backstop.

So why are Brexiteers not dancing at the crossroads about their technology? Because they know, in fact everyone knows, there is no reliable technology in existence at the moment that can handle the scale of what is required.

And I'm curious to know what compromise you feel the Irish republic could make right now that will not leave us as pawns in later negotiations? Pawns for some who have proven themselves at best disingenuous and worst openly hostile and malevolent towards our country.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is excellent. Here is a transcript:https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

It is quite a sobering listen (I listened to the Brexit republic podcast).

What it does show, to me anyway, is that this really is only the start of the problems. A fudge may well be found but the real problems for the UK is that everything they gain now will simply add to the price to be paid for a FTA.

That is why the position of some brexiteers, that they simply withhold the £39bn, is the fallacy it clearly is. If they crash out, when the FTA negotiations begin the 1st thing will be the repayment of outstanding monies.

And the fact is that throughout this entire process, the UK political establishment has been lying consistently to the public. Even at this stage, they don't want to paint the real picture. That a FTA will come with significant conditions, such as possible issues with Gibraltar, regulatory alignment without any say, possible payments for access to certain EU bodies etc.

None of this has been adequately addressed. Even the remainers are not being honest. It is quite clear that the UK public are not happy with the way the EU is going, simply remaining is not an adequate answer. They need to listen to the concerns, both real and imagined, and try to formulate a way to overcome them.

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side.
It has been very badly handled by both sides
I think a referendum up in north would now go basically orange and green which was not the case.

I agree with your sentiment and analysis of the political divide. However, how exactly should the EU compromise?

Akrasia

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

The UK signed up to everything that they were 'dragged kicking and screaming into' and everything they didn't want to join they got exemptions for.

The UK had a veto all along for major changes to the way the EU works. Claiming otherwise is just false.

And of the things the UK claim they lost control over (their immigration policies for example) they still had full control over non EU migration (which half the brexit voters don't seem to realise) and there were mechanisms built into the EU treaties that allowed the UK to increase restrictions on internal EU migration that the UK didn't feel they needed to implement.

This narrative of the big bad EU bullying the poor UK is totally fabricated and now that they're being forced to integrate their fantasy into reality, the chickens are coming home to roost.

dr.fuzzenstein

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

I love the absolute supreme confidence of the Brexiteers, as they radiate absolute certainty hat they hold all the cards, the EU will cave to their demands, it's all the fault of the evil EU and they deserve a better deal and the rest is "Waaaa! Evil EU MADE us join them! Not Fair!!!"
Whilst they know it is all their own doing, they're holding absolutely nothing, the ice is creaking beneath their feet and they're playing a game of chicken with a tree.
There is something inherently satisfying watching someone bluff to the absolute hilt, knowing that the other side knows it's a bluff, has called it and is not going to budge one smeggin' inch.
It's ALL the doing of the Brexiteers. The UK is ALREADY on a rebate that was negotiated in a special deal and finally they overegged the pudding.

downcow

Thargor wrote: »

Oh great get your crayons out its time for another 16 pages of downcow learns about international trade.

I’m not going to get drawn into personalising this. That is usually the action taken by someone who is beginning to realise that an issue isn’t just as black and white as they thought it was and know they aren’t good at getting their head around anything that is not simple black and white (or orange and green).
At least that is some success ðŸ˜€

First Up

downcow wrote:

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side. It has been very badly handled by both sides I think a referendum up in north would now go basically orange and green which was not the case.

The EU knows exactly how traffic moves between Britain, N.I, the republic and the Continent. Every option has been studied, measured, costed and factored with WTO and other global trade agreements. Expert teams have been working on this for years.

This information and the options have been shared in full with the dunces who pass for Brexit negotiators (but we still get gibberish from the likes of Davis, JRM and Johnson.)

You've said it yourself; the objections are ideological, not technical.

There was a time when Unionist loyalty was said to be more to the half crown than the crown. Maybe we'll get back to that