Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's a good point. There's will be only so much finger pointing that Farage, Mogg and Johnson can do. When they're out on their own and their economy is tanking, the EU will simply be another place just like the US or India.

I think you are failing to understand just how toxic the EU has been allowed to be painted in the UK.

The EU are the foundation for each and every ill. Just look at the debate, on here and in the UK, regarding the backstop. It is the EU being troublesome, making a play on NI to try to stop the UK leaving. Using the GFA to politicise the border.

Even the £39bn is seen as blackmail money being demanded by the EU rather than the reality that it is obligations for freely entered into agreement and budget.

If the reality is as bad as the potential claims, are even if its just flowers rotting at the port, do you really think the local Tory MP is going to simply accept the responsibility for it? Not a chance. It will be the EU to blame, maybe Ireland, probably Turkey and potentially foreigners. But it certainly will not be the UK to blame

CelticRambler wrote: »

That honest analysis was done three years ago, before the referendum took place. The Brexiteers opted to not include the conclusions in their campaign propaganda. The analysis was repeated when the referendum result was announced, and the EU came up with a reasonable, sensitive solution, tailored specifically to the needs of both NI communities. The Brexiteers, egged on by the DUP, decided England's nationalistic ambitions superseded the interest of NI.

"English Channel" makes no sense in respect of Ireland, and besides everyone knows that the checks there will be the stuff of nightmares. These are the real, planned-for, money-being-spent-and-people-signing-contracts changes that happening as we speak ... yet you're still talking about it as if it's hypothetical?

As for "technology/cloud" - well, the EU has said it'll seriously consider any such proposal just as soon as the UK produces evidence of even one system that would do what's expected of it. Right now, there is no technology/cloud solution working anywhere in the world, and no company given a contract to develop it, and the UK's performance in delivering workable IT solutions is hardly reassuring.

So for practical purposes, that leaves only two points of control for goods entering and leaving NI - the Irish Sea and the NI-RoI border. Exactly how it was when this whole sorry saga began.

When somebody shows me how technology can screen thousands of lorries for chlorinated chicken, then I'll be interested in a technological solution

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island.

That honest analysis was done three years ago, before the referendum took place. The Brexiteers opted to not include the conclusions in their campaign propaganda. The analysis was repeated when the referendum result was announced, and the EU came up with a reasonable, sensitive solution, tailored specifically to the needs of both NI communities. The Brexiteers, egged on by the DUP, decided England's nationalistic ambitions superseded the interest of NI.

downcow wrote: »

There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help.

"English Channel" makes no sense in respect of Ireland, and besides everyone knows that the checks there will be the stuff of nightmares. These are the real, planned-for, money-being-spent-and-people-signing-contracts changes that happening as we speak ... yet you're still talking about it as if it's hypothetical?

As for "technology/cloud" - well, the EU has said it'll seriously consider any such proposal just as soon as the UK produces evidence of even one system that would do what's expected of it. Right now, there is no technology/cloud solution working anywhere in the world, and no company given a contract to develop it, and the UK's performance in delivering workable IT solutions is hardly reassuring.

So for practical purposes, that leaves only two points of control for goods entering and leaving NI - the Irish Sea and the NI-RoI border. Exactly how it was when this whole sorry saga began.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Something that has been bugging me is people (correctly) saying that UK will blame EU for everything going wrong. However the obvious question that these posters are missing is what happens afterwards.
If you are a florist for example and your product is rotting at port, you can't become angry at EU as you would quickly realise UK has left and you no longer have representation in Europe, so your anger will be directed at local politicians as they are ones with any power to do anything.
This will lead to mass resignations and an election post hard brexit while Rome continues to burn.

But for that to happen they would have to accept that all they were told by the UK politicians was wrong. I see no evidence of that happening. If anything, they are doubling-down on their beliefs.

So the flowers are only rotting at the port because the EU are punishing them for attempting to leave and if only the EU acted in good faith then none of this would be happening.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Something that has been bugging me is people (correctly) saying that UK will blame EU for everything going wrong. However the obvious question that these posters are missing is what happens afterwards.
If you are a florist for example and your product is rotting at port, you can't become angry at EU as you would quickly realise UK has left and you no longer have representation in Europe, so your anger will be directed at local politicians as they are ones with any power to do anything.
This will lead to mass resignations and an election post hard brexit while Rome continues to burn.

That's a good point. There's will be only so much finger pointing that Farage, Mogg and Johnson can do. When they're out on their own and their economy is tanking, the EU will simply be another place just like the US or India.

First Up

RobMc59 wrote:

If he has a different viewpoint to yours there's no need to act like that.

Well it does get frustrating when you are in discussion with people who don't know what they are talking about.

But at least its only on Boards. Imagine if it was with those in charge of Brexit......

RobMc59

Thargor wrote: »

Oh great get your crayons out its time for another 16 pages of downcow learns about international trade.

If he has a different viewpoint to yours there's no need to act like that.

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

Yes. I don’t think checks at the Irish sea would create a big problem but the way it has been approached ie “we won’t tolerate anything at Irish border or channel end off. You must split your country down the middle”. This is the arrogance that is driving the brexiteers

You talk about splitting your country... I think you should be pointing your finger at those holding power in Westminster and the DUP who are propping them up. They ran a successful campaign with nary a word mentioned about your 6 counties.
If you end up with a referendum that splits you into green and orange don't try to blame the EU or Leo Varadkar, whose predecessor did try to warn the UK electorate about the pitfalls ahead.

First Up

downcow wrote:

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side. It has been very badly handled by both sides I think a referendum up in north would now go basically orange and green which was not the case.

The EU knows exactly how traffic moves between Britain, N.I, the republic and the Continent. Every option has been studied, measured, costed and factored with WTO and other global trade agreements. Expert teams have been working on this for years.

This information and the options have been shared in full with the dunces who pass for Brexit negotiators (but we still get gibberish from the likes of Davis, JRM and Johnson.)

You've said it yourself; the objections are ideological, not technical.

There was a time when Unionist loyalty was said to be more to the half crown than the crown. Maybe we'll get back to that

Thargor wrote: »

Oh great get your crayons out its time for another 16 pages of downcow learns about international trade.

I’m not going to get drawn into personalising this. That is usually the action taken by someone who is beginning to realise that an issue isn’t just as black and white as they thought it was and know they aren’t good at getting their head around anything that is not simple black and white (or orange and green).
At least that is some success ðŸ˜€

dr.fuzzenstein

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

I love the absolute supreme confidence of the Brexiteers, as they radiate absolute certainty hat they hold all the cards, the EU will cave to their demands, it's all the fault of the evil EU and they deserve a better deal and the rest is "Waaaa! Evil EU MADE us join them! Not Fair!!!"
Whilst they know it is all their own doing, they're holding absolutely nothing, the ice is creaking beneath their feet and they're playing a game of chicken with a tree.
There is something inherently satisfying watching someone bluff to the absolute hilt, knowing that the other side knows it's a bluff, has called it and is not going to budge one smeggin' inch.
It's ALL the doing of the Brexiteers. The UK is ALREADY on a rebate that was negotiated in a special deal and finally they overegged the pudding.

Akrasia

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

The UK signed up to everything that they were 'dragged kicking and screaming into' and everything they didn't want to join they got exemptions for.

The UK had a veto all along for major changes to the way the EU works. Claiming otherwise is just false.

And of the things the UK claim they lost control over (their immigration policies for example) they still had full control over non EU migration (which half the brexit voters don't seem to realise) and there were mechanisms built into the EU treaties that allowed the UK to increase restrictions on internal EU migration that the UK didn't feel they needed to implement.

This narrative of the big bad EU bullying the poor UK is totally fabricated and now that they're being forced to integrate their fantasy into reality, the chickens are coming home to roost.

downcow wrote: »

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side.
It has been very badly handled by both sides
I think a referendum up in north would now go basically orange and green which was not the case.

I agree with your sentiment and analysis of the political divide. However, how exactly should the EU compromise?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is excellent. Here is a transcript:https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

It is quite a sobering listen (I listened to the Brexit republic podcast).

What it does show, to me anyway, is that this really is only the start of the problems. A fudge may well be found but the real problems for the UK is that everything they gain now will simply add to the price to be paid for a FTA.

That is why the position of some brexiteers, that they simply withhold the £39bn, is the fallacy it clearly is. If they crash out, when the FTA negotiations begin the 1st thing will be the repayment of outstanding monies.

And the fact is that throughout this entire process, the UK political establishment has been lying consistently to the public. Even at this stage, they don't want to paint the real picture. That a FTA will come with significant conditions, such as possible issues with Gibraltar, regulatory alignment without any say, possible payments for access to certain EU bodies etc.

None of this has been adequately addressed. Even the remainers are not being honest. It is quite clear that the UK public are not happy with the way the EU is going, simply remaining is not an adequate answer. They need to listen to the concerns, both real and imagined, and try to formulate a way to overcome them.

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

So which is it?
I think we all know that the UK would like a conversation about what might be possible at the Irish border but ireland will not let the discussion even start. So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.

But the UK has started that conversation about what is possible at the NI border. They've talked about trusted trader and technology. That conversation has taken place. And have you heard those words "unless and until" wrt the backstop? Well as soon as that technology is shown as real and reliable well no backstop.

So why are Brexiteers not dancing at the crossroads about their technology? Because they know, in fact everyone knows, there is no reliable technology in existence at the moment that can handle the scale of what is required.

And I'm curious to know what compromise you feel the Irish republic could make right now that will not leave us as pawns in later negotiations? Pawns for some who have proven themselves at best disingenuous and worst openly hostile and malevolent towards our country.

Podge_irl

downcow wrote: »

Yes. I don’t think checks at the Irish sea would create a big problem but the way it has been approached ie “we won’t tolerate anything at Irish border or channel end off. You must split your country down the middle”. This is the arrogance that is driving the brexiteers

The UK's position on the Irish border is ultimately the same as Ireland's - that there will be no hard border. Only one side seems to understand the realities of what that means though.

Thargor

Oh great get your crayons out its time for another 16 pages of downcow learns about international trade.

Podge_irl

downcow wrote: »

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side.

Ireland has done far more work on this issue than anyone in the UK has.

However, you are getting everything in the wrong order. The EU is perfectly willing to have this conversation, and indeed it will be necessary and unavoidable, as part of the negotiation on the Free Trade Agreement that both they and the UK want to sign.

That is not what is currently being discussed - the Withdrawl Agreement is a completely different issue. The WA will have effect until the FTA comes into effect.

Russman wrote: »

To be fair, its of the UK's own making (the current crisis that is). I don't think anyone would suggest the EU is by any means squeaky clean.
To me, the Irish Sea is the logical place for controls if the DUP could only see that it doesn't threaten them and they'd get the best of both worlds. English Channel is never going to happen as the EU won't cut off one of its own members because it suits a country that left/is leaving. Technology/cloud is years away IMO.

As for "take back control" - of what exactly ? What rules or arrangements have actually been to the detriment of the UK ? It all seems a bit woolly and notional tbh (no offence).

Yes. I don’t think checks at the Irish sea would create a big problem but the way it has been approached ie “we won’t tolerate anything at Irish border or channel end off. You must split your country down the middle”. This is the arrogance that is driving the brexiteers

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What compromise should the EU offer?

Maybe an honest analysis of what checks are currently happening where and how these could be developed on all 4 sites with real sensitivity to those who feel their cultures and identity are deeply untwined in these borders ie unionists and nationalists on this island. Rather than the current we only care about nationalists which inevitably creates a we only care about unionists attitude on other side.
It has been very badly handled by both sides
I think a referendum up in north would now go basically orange and green which was not the case.

Russman

downcow wrote: »

I don’t disagree with much of that. But you seem to blame UK for this situation. The UK has been dragged kicking and screaming for decades as the Eu suits have transformed the common market. The UK has had enough and wants to take back some control.
For you to say that the Eu will just refuse to negotiate on anything to do with the border is unreasonable. There are at least 4 places controls can take place ie Irish Sea, Irish border, English Channel, technology/cloud. In reality checks are happening at all these places and a bit more honest discussion between Eu ire UK etc would really help. Maybe not so much needs to change rather a truer picture painted of the reality rather than Eu trying to look like it is all-powerful, snowy white and squeaky clean.

To be fair, its of the UK's own making (the current crisis that is). I don't think anyone would suggest the EU is by any means squeaky clean.
To me, the Irish Sea is the logical place for controls if the DUP could only see that it doesn't threaten them and they'd get the best of both worlds. English Channel is never going to happen as the EU won't cut off one of its own members because it suits a country that left/is leaving. Technology/cloud is years away IMO.

As for "take back control" - of what exactly ? What rules or arrangements have actually been to the detriment of the UK ? It all seems a bit woolly and notional tbh (no offence).

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.

If a hard border (at least on paper) is needed because of a crashout, that is bad, but it can be undone directly in the next phase of talks where the UK come looking for a free trade deal: item 1: pay your bills. Item 2, citizens rights. Item 3, backstop. Item 4, free trade agreement.

But if we agree to a hard border to allow May to pass her deal, that is much worse, because it is much harder to undo.

downcow wrote: »

So which is it?
I think we all know that the UK would like a conversation about what might be possible at the Irish border but ireland will not let the discussion even start. So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.

What compromise should the EU offer?

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The latest episode of Brexit republic is great

Brexit Republic Ep 22 18-12-18

12/18/18 by RTÉ:Ireland

Episode: https://www.rte.ie/cspodcasts/media.mp3?c1=2&c2=16951747&ns_site=test&ns_type=clickin&rte_vs_ct=aud&rte_vs_sc=pod&rte_mt_sec=radio&rte_vs_sn=radio1&rte_mt_pub_dt=2018-12-18&rte_mt_prg_name=test-brexitrepublic&title=Brexit%20Republic%20Ep%2022%2018-12-18&c7=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2018%2F1218%2F20181218_webexclusi-brexitrepublic-brexitrepu_c21480725_21480730_232_.mp3&r=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcast.rasset.ie%2Fpodcasts%2Faudio%2F2018%2F1218%2F20181218_webexclusi-brexitrepublic-brexitrepu_c21480725_21480730_232_.mp3

On Thursday, December 13 Sir Ivan Rogers delivered a hard-hitting speech to the University of Liverpool's Heseltine Institute. He had a robust analysis of the current Brexit debate most recent speech. The Heseltine Institute has kindly provided us with the audio of the speech for this podcast.

It is excellent. Here is a transcript:https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

Christy42 wrote: »

.....Both sides say they don't want it at the ni border.....

.....The UK has provided a backstop that will turn into a hard border in a few years time despite their claims of not wanting KT.

So which is it?
I think we all know that the UK would like a conversation about what might be possible at the Irish border but ireland will not let the discussion even start. So when this goes pairshaped for UK and ireland remember that a very small compromise from ireland could have got this current deal over the line.