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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Seems bizarre for Irish Ferries to scrap Rosslare to Cherbourg, given the potential next year?

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-ferries-rosslare-france-service-4403460-Dec2018/

I suspect Cherbourg (which takes a lot of British traffic) would become a pain to get passengers on and off of. So delays and costs.

EdgeCase

I would be careful about statements from anyone other than the European Commission outlining what the EU 'will do'. There's a bit of a history of wishful thinking and lack of a proper subjective case in English resulting in statements about how the EU will do x, y and z when they mean the EU might do x, y or z.

I regularly see speculation phrased like that.

First Up

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Or a few more hours on the ferry and you end up in Dublin which is where most of the traffic is headed. The Ferry to Belgium does the same.

Which ferry to Belgium?

EdgeCase

France at the moment wouldn't be the most stable of routes either. You could be jumping out of the frying pan of Brexit and into the French strikes that are likely to get worse before they eventually cool down.

Having access to France would be great, if it weren't for the endless strikes that are likely. Routes into Belgium and the Netherlands are definitely more reliable.

J Mysterio

First Up wrote: »

Which ferry to Belgium?

Zeebrugge presumably.

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

Guys can I reassure you the NI troubles are over. End off. No threat to south and no threat to NI. There is no stomache for it and those that are interested are being tracked in such a way that they can’t move. When was the last troubles killing (I know there is some drugs stuff. Indeed the most recent up here was exported from your little fued in Dublin). Maybe a decade ago

Could you tell me why I should take your word over the Chief Constable of the PSNI?

10000maniacs wrote: »

Just watching Channel 4 News and there's Shangar Singham from the Institute For Economic Affairs saying that tomorrow the EU will announce a 6 to 9 month delay in applying WTO rules to Britain after March 29th in a no-deal scenario. Is this correct?

I am not saying that this couldn't happen, but the IEA is one of those "charities" where we don't know who funds them. What we do know is that they have come out with policies favouring the tobacco industry after receiving money from the same industry. I don't trust any organisation that is not open about its funding.

First Up

J Mysterio wrote:

Zeebrugge presumably.

Freight only I think.

First Up

prawnsambo wrote:

I suspect Cherbourg (which takes a lot of British traffic) would become a pain to get passengers on and off of. So delays and costs.

The WBY will still go into Cherbourg. Its only the Irish port that's changing.

listermint

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Link from reputable source
https://afloat.ie/port-news/ferry-news/item/41342-w-b-yeats-makes-debut-in-france-port-though-routes-from-rosslare-unlikely-to-operate-in-2019

Not really. The road from Rosslare to Dublin isn't great.

And for foot passengers it's not an easy connection unless you plan on staying overnight.

Or a few more hours on the ferry and you end up in Dublin which is where most of the traffic is headed. The Ferry to Belgium does the same.

The M11 is due to open mid 2019 it's ahead of schedule

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1075022994374840320

UK going all in on it bluff or are we through the looking glass?

EdgeCase

First Up wrote: »

The WBY will still go into Cherbourg. Its only the Irish port that's changing.

Does that not add a significant amount of time effectively sailing down the Irish coast instead of taking a shorter point-to-point route though?

A truck could drive to the Southeast far faster than a ferry could chug down the coast.

From a national interest point of view, we would want to be ensuring fast links between a southern port and France.

Essentially Irish Ferries seem to be more about tourism than freight on that route.

bilston

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah ... you might want to revise you history of The Troubles. The IRA were never "defeated". Sinn Féin negotiated on their behalf with the British (and Irish) government to move their fight into the political arena rather than the (para)military theatre. Things were going quite well, including an IRA ceasefire when the negotiations hit a wall. The Tory Party found itself somewhat dependent on the DUP for support in Westminster. Every other party to the negotiations (Irish Govt, the US, the EU observers, and Sinn Féin/IRA) told the Tory-DUP alliance that they were being thick eejits and should continue continue with the negotiations according to the already agreed terms. (Does any of this sound familiar?) They refused, and the IRA decided to remind them of what not having a ceasefire looked like:

The 1996 Docklands bombing quickly brought the Tories to their senses, talks resumed and the GFA was born, without the DUP's support. At no point in the process was the IRA defeated, and in case you missed it, their Chief of Staff ran as a Presidential candidate in Ireland a few years back, and subsequently had dinner with the Queen in Buckingham Palace at her invitation.

That kind of peaceful co-existence of two previously sworn enemies is one of the many benefits of EU membership; unfortunately, the devil's alliance of the Tories and the DUP has come back to haunt Britain once again.

PS - you may recall that the previous occasion on which the Tories and the DUP got into bed together was to introduce something called the Poll Tax. That worked out splendidly, didn't it?

You're confusing the Unionist parties.

Also what did the UUP (you really meant the UUP) have to do with the Poll Tax?

Nody

LeinsterDub wrote: »

UK going all in on it bluff or are we through the looking glass?

Does it matter? Looking at UK's papers on what will happen, their "back up plans" etc. I'd not hold my breath on their success either way. Sure, go ahead and activate the plans; of course the EU countries have already been doing this for much longer. And here's the real kicker; unlike EU UK needs to somehow recreate all the relevant competencies in 101 days as well as getting all laws, approvals and treaties in place for them to work from Nuclear agreements to flights to even basic things such as phytosanitary rules and compliance to replacing every single wooden pallet with a certified one (when they were in EU they did not need heat treated pallets; being outside of EU they do). Yea I'm sure the UK government got it all under control; nothing to worry about here...

prawnsambo

Nody wrote: »

Does it matter? Looking at UK's papers on what will happen, their "back up plans" etc. I'd not hold my breath on their success either way. Sure, go ahead and activate the plans; of course the EU countries have already been doing this for much longer. And here's the real kicker; unlike EU UK needs to somehow recreate all the relevant competencies in 101 days as well as getting all laws, approvals and treaties in place for them to work from Nuclear agreements to flights to even basic things such as phytosanitary rules and compliance to replacing every single wooden pallet with a certified one (when they were in EU they did not need heat treated pallets; being outside of EU they do). Yea I'm sure the UK government got it all under control; nothing to worry about here...

I don't think they'd ever admit it, but it must be dawning on them what they were paying the £9 billion a year for.

J Mysterio

Some more cheery Brexit news from UK Independent:

Six million British businesses put on high alert as government approves full plan for no-deal Brexit

"HMRC has already contacted around 150,000 exporters last week to notify them about changes to customs arrangements, with officials set to email a further 80,000 key businesses and business groups relating to no-deal Brexit this week."

"The government will also make available a 100-page “partnership pack” for all of the UK’s firms, setting out measures that should be taken in relation to customs, VAT and regulatory changes.

"Ministers have already announced plans to stockpile food and medicines, chartering ferries to bring in extra supplies and providing extra resources for border agencies. Downing Street said that advice on no-deal preparations will also be going out to households by various channels over the coming weeks."

Im sure all the households will be mighty reassured and pleased with the no deal advice to come. What will it be? 'Strap in!', 'buckle up!', 'Tips for Surviving Mad Max Wasteland,'

Just the various headlines say it all really.

▪ 'Dutch PM Rutte warns his voters against emulating ‘chaos’ of Brexit' ▪ 'Business leaders urge May to call fresh Brexit referendum' ▪ 'Government to place 3,500 troops on standby for no-deal Brexit chaos' ▪ 'As it happened - May challenges Corbyn to table full no-confidence motion'

Thargor

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1075043470841167877

Are they actually trying to break up the UK do you think?

First Up

EdgeCase wrote:

Does that not add a significant amount of time effectively sailing down the Irish coast instead of taking a shorter point-to-point route though?

A truck could drive to the Southeast far faster than a ferry could chug down the coast.

From a national interest point of view, we would want to be ensuring fast links between a southern port and France.

Essentially Irish Ferries seem to be more about tourism than freight on that route.

I'm sure IF have tested this with their freight customers.

The Stena service from Rosslare to Cherbourg is still available.

Personally I'm happy to spend an extra hour or two at sea instead of the drive to and from Rosslare.

J Mysterio

In other news, Belgium's PM Charles Michel has just resigned after a no confidence vote. Trying to find the numbers from the vote, which is proving tricky.

He resigned after attempts to stabilise government apparently failed after his Flemish coalition partner abandoned goverment amid protests at the Belgians endorsing the refugee pact.

In other other news, only one country out of 186 backed the US in United Nations vote against agreement to support refugees.

Strange, turbulent times all round really. You would almost feel secure and insulated here in Ireland except we aren't really. England's problems are ours too ultimately, be it through trade, influence or the effect on NI.

andrewfaulk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Zeebrugge presumably.

CLDN run Dublin to Zeebrugge and Dublin to Rotterdam

murphaph

3 remain Tories openly stating they will resign the whip if no deal becomes government policy. Claims many others ready to do the same.

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Seems bizarre for Irish Ferries to scrap Rosslare to Cherbourg, given the potential next year?

Elsewhere on boards.ie it's explained that this appears to be due to a mixture of technical problems and pure bad luck for Irish Ferries (a perfect storm :rolleyes: of severely delayed delivery of their new ship, damage to another, need for not-so-routine maintenance, and a WTF-Brexit)

J Mysterio

Can't disagree with this from Justine Greening MP:

Justine Greening says it is 'simply wrong' for MPs to take two-week Christmas break while Brexit crisis unresolved

In the Commons Brexit debate Justine Greening, the Conservative pro-European former cabinet minister, said there was “no excuse” for delaying the vote on the Brexit deal until the middle of January. She said:

We have spent two and a half years going round in circles and we cannot simply go nowhere, we have to now take some decisions about going somewhere ...

MPs in this place would be happy to delay recess, frankly I’d be happy to sit through Christmas and into the new year if it meant we could find a direction on Brexit for businesses and people who want certainty about where this country is going.

People simply won’t understand why this place is packing up and having a two week holiday when we face the biggest constitutional crisis that this country has had in decades, it is simply wrong, the government has to recognise this.

You imagine the Christmas can't come soon enough for Ms Theresa 'Delay' May.

Professor Moriarty

murphaph wrote: »

3 remain Tories openly stating they will resign the whip if no deal becomes government policy. Claims many others ready to do the same.

This is just May's final death throes. She stands or falls on her deal and it hasn't a hope of passing through parliament. It can't be postponed any further so this is a desperate attempt to scare MPs into accepting her deal. It's extremely unlikely to succeed so, as things stand, she has about four weeks left as PM.

Water John

If you want a further dose of B O'Neill, he's reviewing the papers on Sky 10.30.

BTW in 47 mins time, it will be 100 days to Brexit.

[Deleted User]

Water John wrote: »

If you want a further dose of B O'Neill, he's reviewing the papers on Sky 10.30.

No and there's nothing more to be said.

CelticRambler

bilston wrote: »

You're confusing the Unionist parties.

Also what did the UUP (you really meant the UUP) have to do with the Poll Tax?

I'll accept that I've muddled up my unionists - these Irish all look the same from a distance. :cool:

In the face of Tory rebels (numerous abstentions and votes against) Margaret Thatcher needed unionist support to be sure of getting the legislation passed. Rather ironically for the English, the poll tax was not applicable in NI. I'm sure there was a side-deal done to cement the arrangement, but I can't remember what it was and google is saturated with links comparing the Poll Tax and Brexit fiascos so I'm not searching any further ... :P

Water John

Anna Botting not giving O'Neill any room and Jenny Kleeman savages him.
O'Neill says we could run the border the same as the toll with cameras, WTF?

Intimates that achieving Brexit is more important than delayed access to a doctor.

WomanSkirtFan8

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

No and there's nothing more to be said.

Agreed. He's as dellusional as the rest of the brexiteers. As the old saying goes, "less said, easily mended."

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

Anna Botting not giving O'Neill any room and Jenny Kleeman savages him.
O'Neill says we could run the border the same as the toll with cameras, WTF?

Intimates that achieving Brexit is more important than delayed access to a doctor.

Botting quickly exposed his crap about "project fear".

Professor Moriarty

O'Neill did himself no favours whatsoever. Came across as a lightweight one trick pony.