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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

It won’t happen again. Not possible.

Seriously? :eek: I passed four burning pyres this afternoon when I went shopping in the middle-of-nowhere France, disgruntled peasants protesting about who-the-feck-knows. Do you really believe that the PSNI warnings about a re-kindling of violence amongst known troublemakers (that you say have been comprehensively infiltrated) is just another part of Project Fear? Well, good luck to you if Brexit turns hard ...

foxyladyxx

downcow wrote: »

I guess you don’t really believe that. The troubles ended because the ira were so incredibly infiltrated. Stakeknife, Maginnis (your presidential candidate), etc, etc. They were defeated and the the loyalists turned up the volume with their disgraceful sectarian campaign which more than matched the ira sectarian campaign. Support in both communities deminished. I won’t happen again. Not possible.

I have been told that paramilitaries on both sides are well prepared and ready to go into action should a hard border be reintroduced on the border.

downcow

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the debate your are trying to have is irrelevant. The UK have said that they have no intention of having a hard border. So what is their solution to the problem of not having a hard border.

The EU has proposed that NI be allowed to stay aligned to the EU in order to satisfy the UK line about he border, yet this seems to be not a runner in the UK.

So, the default position, which is what will happen in Dover etc, is a border. What is the solution to avoid that in Ireland. At present, it seems to amount to "we simply won't bother".

It’s a very fair question. I think some unionists could stomach some checks on Irish Sea if they could see some fair play ie some checks at French/ire border and maybe some very light stuff at Irish border. Spread it out so as it doesn’t leave any one side feeling they are taking all the pain.

J Mysterio

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

No. The current British Army numbers 77,000.

In the past 27,000 couldn't stop 40% of the vehicle fuel being laundered or smuggled. It would leave just 50,000 for GB and the rest of the world, if you include rotation and training and holidays .

And the UK Govt has already ruled out more CCTV cameras.

Good. London is absolutely plastered with them, its frightening.

Harry Palmr

Some might like to have a look a this, obviously it's only covering large companies plans for Brexit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/brexit-impact-tracker/

am i bovvered

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah ... you might want to revise you history of The Troubles.......

Fantastic post.

I try to remind people of this history. It is amazing how quickly it’s all forgotten or twisted.
Personally, I think John Major was extremely irresponsible and immoral, doing a dodgy deal just to hang onto power for a few more months.

Anyone who thinks that there is no chance of violence emerging in the North again is naive.

irelandrover

downcow wrote: »

It’s a very fair question. I think some unionists could stomach some checks on Irish Sea if they could see some fair play ie some checks at French/ire border and maybe some very light stuff at Irish border. Spread it out so as it doesn’t leave any one side feeling they are taking all the pain.

Why should there be any change to the Irish/ French border. Neither of those countries voted to change their borders.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

It’s a very fair question. I think some unionists could stomach some checks on Irish Sea if they could see some fair play ie some checks at French/ire border and maybe some very light stuff at Irish border. Spread it out so as it doesn’t leave any one side feeling they are taking all the pain.

What???

(a) There are already checks at the France-Ireland border (passport, because we're not in Schengen; and phyto-sanitary because we care about the health of our agricultural economy). The EU suggested that extending this model to cover NI would be a good idea, seeing as it's not physically attached to GB and has loads of different rules anyway. The UK government objected.
(b) "One side" in NI has decided that they want everyone - including the 60% who voted Remain - to take all of the pain that English nationalists wish upon themselves. Why should the Irish (of the Republic or the North) have to suffer for that?

Also, I'm still waiting for you to say whether or not you are happy to give up your cattle-related income in favour of American and Argentinian cowboys, if/when Boris and Jacob decide not to impose border controls on UK imports.

mickoneill31

Brexit Republic podcast is really good today. They broadcast sir Ivan Rogers speech at a university recently. Makes the UK government sound like a bunch of incompetent novices.

https://pca.st/zE66

J Mysterio

downcow wrote: »

So what are you saying? Which side should we wind up? Where should the passports be checked? Irish Sea or Irish border? Or could the English Channel be a more sensitive place to do it? Don’t expect anyone to suggest Channel as that might upset a few old cork republicans ðŸ˜€

Look, you can have the best of both worlds up there in Northern Ireland. You can have full access to the UK market and you can have full access to Ireland. No restrictions, trading in both, and retaining a first class set of rights afforded to you by the EU while remaining a UK citizen. That's seemingly a fantastic deal which essentially renders NI a 'special economic zone'.

This would be a boon to a NI which, among other problems, has a dysfunctional economy. Its a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Were I you, I'd be very much in favour of remaining in the EU (where NI already receives big grants from the EU) or at the very least bang the drum for what is a wonderful deal for NI.

NI will be screwed in a no deal scenario. The funding lost from the EU will have to be made up from a UK purse which will be collapsing. There will have to be job losses to a bloated public sector which will cause hardship. It is this which could well lead to a United Ireland. Taking May's deal, everyone just carries on as befofe and we put this all behind us.

Igotadose

J Mysterio wrote: »

Look, you can have the best of both worlds up there in Northern Ireland. You can have full access to the UK market and you can have full access to Ireland. No restrictions, trading in both, and retaining a first class set of rights afforded to you by the EU while remaining a UK citizen. That's seemingly a fantastic deal which essentially renders NI a 'special economic zone'.

This would be a boon to a NI which, among other problems, has a dysfunctional economy. Its a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Imagine looking back in 30 years and NI being the strong part of the UK everyone wants to live in, where Britain's the backwater with relic industries and an ugly overpopulation problem. Maybe with the WA NI is actually the one part of the pre-Brexit UK that, economically, improves from Brexit.

Hurrache

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Just listened to that...individual...Brendan O'Neil on Sean O'Rourke today. Well worth a listen to hear an Oxford University expert on Irish politics absolutely hand his arse to him. He tries to frame the remain argument and the border issues as "anti-Irish"!

https://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=b9_21480635_15036_18-12-2018_

He's such an obnoxious asshole. He has this equivalence to the "I'm not racist but...", his peasant stock ancestry, as a way to excuse his denigrating of all things Oirland because, you know, he's one of us. He actually claimed to hark back to the days of singing Irish ditties about freedom and such when he was a kid as opposed to now in which he claims we are being dictated to by the EU

McGiver

J Mysterio wrote: »

That is an absolutely disgraceful article. Unbelievably this repugnant buffoon is very often on Sky's Press Preview. 'The Editor of Spiked Online'.

Edit: also snap.

It's behind a paywall, would you mind posting it here? or at least the worst passages

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

It’s a very fair question. I think some unionists could stomach some checks on Irish Sea if they could see some fair play ie some checks at French/ire border and maybe some very light stuff at Irish border. Spread it out so as it doesn’t leave any one side feeling they are taking all the pain.

Are Unionists that precious?

"We want nothing to do with you or your ways but would you do this one thing for us to make sure we can have some warm fuzzies?"

Recently a lot of noise has been made of FG and Varadkar and Coveney's stance toward the UKGovt.

Which has made a lot of northern Unionists break out the "how durr deys"... At some point the goodwill has got to end or the toddler just won't grow up.

4068ac1elhodqr

J Mysterio wrote: »

Good. London is absolutely plastered with them, its frightening.

They're currently running trials of FRS's, which means they would require less CCTVs if a system/network of facial recognition cameras ever switches from the current volountary trials into real world use.

Perhaps the trials are running now, in preperation for brexit day.

ilovesmybrick

Hurrache wrote:

He's such an obnoxious asshole. He has this equivalence to the "I'm not racist but...", his peasant stock ancestry, as a way to excuse his denigrating of all things Oirland because, you know, he's one of us. He actually claimed to hark back to the days of singing Irish ditties about freedom and such when he was a kid as opposed to now in which he claims we are being dictated to by the EU

Wouldn't you love to see him come back to his "peasant" roots and try that one out on the west coast. It's easy to toss these things across the Irish Sea, but you wouldn't be long doing it if you're actually in or familiar with the country.

Leroy42

Spread it out? This is a UK decision, why should Ireland or anyone else pay a price?

2+ years after the ref, 100 days until the exit date and still the UK have no solution. It's all 'hey what about this, or bit if that'

It really is quite simple, hard border or maintain alignment. Pick one.

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

What???

(a) There are already checks at the France-Ireland border (passport, because we're not in Schengen; and phyto-sanitary because we care about the health of our agricultural economy). The EU suggested that extending this model to cover NI would be a good idea, seeing as it's not physically attached to GB and has loads of different rules anyway. The UK government objected.
(b) "One side" in NI has decided that they want everyone - including the 60% who voted Remain - to take all of the pain that English nationalists wish upon themselves. Why should the Irish (of the Republic or the North) have to suffer for that?

Also, I'm still waiting for you to say whether or not you are happy to give up your cattle-related income in favour of American and Argentinian cowboys, if/when Boris and Jacob decide not to impose border controls on UK imports.

I didn’t see that question earlier. I have just been listening to radio ulster (you can verify it online) and a so-called expert was being asked about what would happen immediately in a no deal Brexit. He was painting a fairly glum picture but he did say when asked about farming that prices of farm produce would jump due to no access to Eu stuff. Just interesting. I don’t take in everything experts say mind you

10000maniacs

Just watching Channel 4 News and there's Shangar Singham from the Institute For Economic Affairs saying that tomorrow the EU will announce a 6 to 9 month delay in applying WTO rules to Britain after March 29th in a no-deal scenario. Is this correct?

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

Spread it out? This is a UK decision, why should Ireland or anyone else pay a price?

Ireland already does spread it out- we are not a member of Schengen to facilitate UK dislike thereof - so the passports section of the border is and will remain between the British isles and the continent- rather than between the future EU/UK border.

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

I didn’t see that question earlier. I have just been listening to radio ulster (you can verify it online) and a so-called expert was being asked about what would happen immediately in a no deal Brexit. He was painting a fairly glum picture but he did say when asked about farming that prices of farm produce would jump due to no access to Eu stuff. Just interesting. I don’t take in everything experts say mind you

You think a country that imports half its food will prevent a single carrot from the EU entering?

bilston

I'd say in a no deal scenario the border will remain soft initially. It will be pressure from France and Germany etc which will ultimately lead to a hard border being created. Basically Ireland would be forced to choose between a hard border on the island of Ireland or checks in the Celtic Sea. It will be the proverbial rock and a hard place. It will of course not be of their doing and will be completely of their control and I'm sure will create a lot of resentment between Ireland and the UK.

The British govt probably realise this and will try and absolve themselves of the blame should a hard border occur.

The above scenario may or may not play out. But if it does I could certainly see it being a catalyst to violence, probably on a lower scale than in the past but once the genie is out of the bottle good luck trying to get it back in...

murphaph

bilston wrote: »

I'd say in a no deal scenario the border will remain soft initially. It will be pressure from France and Germany etc which will ultimately lead to a hard border being created. Basically Ireland would be forced to choose between a hard border on the island of Ireland or checks in the Celtic Sea. It will be the proverbial rock and a hard place. It will of course not be of their doing and will be completely of their control and I'm sure will create a lot of resentment between Ireland and the UK.

The British govt probably realise this and will try and absolve themselves of the blame should a hard border occur.

The above scenario may or may not play out. But if it does I could certainly see it being a catalyst to violence, probably on a lower scale than in the past but once the genie is out of the bottle good luck trying to get it back in...

The UK in this scenario would be facing far more serious issues at Dover. Issues that could collapse Brexit and see the UK begging for any trade deal NI or no NI.

Podge_irl

bilston wrote: »

I'd say in a no deal scenario the border will remain soft initially. It will be pressure from France and Germany etc which will ultimately lead to a hard border being created. Basically Ireland would be forced to choose between a hard border on the island of Ireland or checks in the Celtic Sea.

It will be porous initially (and probably forever frankly) but by no definition will it officially be "soft". Countries simply do not choose to have completely unregulated land borders and it is not something you can just turn a blind eye to.

tuxy

10000maniacs wrote: »

Just watching Channel 4 News and there's Shangar Singham from the Institute For Economic Affairs saying that tomorrow the EU will announce a 6 to 9 month delay in applying WTO rules to Britain after March 29th in a no-deal scenario. Is this correct?

No idea but I guess it's possible since it would give EU countries time to find alternative supply lines.
Don't think it would do the UK much good as I can't see them getting anything organised in 9 months.

J Mysterio

McGiver wrote: »

It's behind a paywall, would you mind posting it here? or at least the worst passages

Link works for me.

An Ciarraioch

Seems bizarre for Irish Ferries to scrap Rosslare to Cherbourg, given the potential next year?

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-ferries-rosslare-france-service-4403460-Dec2018/

First Up

An Ciarraioch wrote:

Seems bizarre for Irish Ferries to scrap Rosslare to Cherbourg, given the potential next year?

I had assumed the IF Rosslare service would continue but the WBY has way more capacity anyway so I guess they have done their sums and off loading the OW may make more sense. We'll see.

Its a blow for Rosslare but I presume Stena will still operate to Cherbourg and with Brittany Ferries going from Cork, the South of the country won't be cut off.

Incidentally I heard Mary Wilson interview someone about it this afternoon on RTE and neither of them seemed to know what they were talking about.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah ... you might want to revise you history of The Troubles. The IRA were never "defeated". Sinn Féin negotiated on their behalf with the British (and Irish) government to move their fight into the political arena rather than the (para)military theatre. Things were going quite well, including an IRA ceasefire when the negotiations hit a wall. The Tory Party found itself somewhat dependent on the DUP for support in Westminster. Every other party to the negotiations (Irish Govt, the US, the EU observers, and Sinn Féin/IRA) told the Tory-DUP alliance that they were being thick eejits and should continue continue with the negotiations according to the already agreed terms. (Does any of this sound familiar?) They refused, and the IRA decided to remind them of what not having a ceasefire looked like:

The 1996 Docklands bombing quickly brought the Tories to their senses, talks resumed and the GFA was born, without the DUP's support. At no point in the process was the IRA defeated, and in case you missed it, their Chief of Staff ran as a Presidential candidate in Ireland a few years back, and subsequently had dinner with the Queen in Buckingham Palace at her invitation.

That kind of peaceful co-existence of two previously sworn enemies is one of the many benefits of EU membership; unfortunately, the devil's alliance of the Tories and the DUP has come back to haunt Britain once again.

PS - you may recall that the previous occasion on which the Tories and the DUP got into bed together was to introduce something called the Poll Tax. That worked out splendidly, didn't it?

If the terrorists return nobody wins-North,the Republic or mainland UK and in the event of an acrimonious no deal brexit we would probably see the rise of ultra right wing political groups in the UK which in itself could lead to a nightmarish scenario.

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Seems bizarre for Irish Ferries to scrap Rosslare to Cherbourg, given the potential next year?

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-ferries-rosslare-france-service-4403460-Dec2018/

Link from reputable source
https://afloat.ie/port-news/ferry-news/item/41342-w-b-yeats-makes-debut-in-france-port-though-routes-from-rosslare-unlikely-to-operate-in-2019

Not really. The road from Rosslare to Dublin isn't great.

And for foot passengers it's not an easy connection unless you plan on staying overnight.

Or a few more hours on the ferry and you end up in Dublin which is where most of the traffic is headed. The Ferry to Belgium does the same.