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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Hurrache

Off topic but not really, I watched a random episode of Pop Goes Northern Ireland the other night, think Reeling in the Years entirely populated with street violence, rioting, murder and triumphalism. It was from 1995, fresh as a daisy to many of us here, the year of the infamous"they haven't gone away you know".

5 minutes watching would focus the mind of anyone downplaying the importance of the GFA.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Let's dissect this.

Firstly, the "Let's get on with it" attitude is likely a symptom of political fatigue across the UK. In the past five years, we've had 2 general elections, 2 sets of local elections, a highly divisive referendum with seconds for the Scots and European elections. That's a relatively high amount of trips to the ballot box for a country which rarely indulges in referenda. Many people are fed up of hearing about Brexit and want to get on with it. These tend to be older people while the younger tend to favour abandoning the whole fell enterprise.

Secondly, the siege mentality is a product of years of being drip-fed poison by an overwhelmingly right-wing, anti-working class Eurosceptic press whose owners despise the EU. That's basically it. The Conservative party was happy to moan about the EU without ever trying to make it work for Britain, at least in the past few decades. The quintessential countervailing example is Margaret Thatcher and the Delors commission. The EU has been depicted from being meddlesome to Mrs. Merkel's personal Fourth Reich by the British press while the Guardian has opted to become the leading producer of divisive identity politics and the BBC has striven for "Balance" by attempting to offend nobody and failing everyone.

Successive Labour and Conservative governments had opportunities to try and make the UK less unequal. Instead, they did the opposite. Smashing unions, hollowing out institutions, the Iraq war, the expenses scandal, letting the north, Scotland, Wales and NI rot while London and the southeast flourish while trying to sell off the NHS piecemeal were the orders of the day and this is the result. You can't create a chasm of inequality and then complain when people on either side of said chasm view each other with hostility. This is the result and it was made in Britain.

I've absolutely no sympathy for the "I'm bored with Brexit" brigade.

What on earth did they think they were doing when they strolled into their polling station in 2016? Leaving the EU was an extreme and most radical of policies being proposed by a far right party (UKIP) and yet they ticked X on the ballot paper as if they were voting to raise the price of postage stamps by 10p. It was always highly likely the vote to Leave would set off political chaos in Britain and chaos that would last for many years.

First Up

RobMc59 wrote:

Although the UK itself is to blame for brexit,the attitude"lets get on with it!"which seems to worryingly be growing in the UK is fuelled by what is fast becoming a siege mentality by some.

We are dealing with the Bereavement Curve. There's still a good bit to go.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

Although the UK itself is to blame for brexit,the attitude"lets get on with it!"which seems to worryingly be growing in the UK is fuelled by what is fast becoming a siege mentality by some.

Let's dissect this.

Firstly, the "Let's get on with it" attitude is likely a symptom of political fatigue across the UK. In the past five years, we've had 2 general elections, 2 sets of local elections, a highly divisive referendum with seconds for the Scots and European elections. That's a relatively high amount of trips to the ballot box for a country which rarely indulges in referenda. Many people are fed up of hearing about Brexit and want to get on with it. These tend to be older people while the younger tend to favour abandoning the whole fell enterprise.

Secondly, the siege mentality is a product of years of being drip-fed poison by an overwhelmingly right-wing, anti-working class Eurosceptic press whose owners despise the EU. That's basically it. The Conservative party was happy to moan about the EU without ever trying to make it work for Britain, at least in the past few decades. The quintessential countervailing example is Margaret Thatcher and the Delors commission. The EU has been depicted from being meddlesome to Mrs. Merkel's personal Fourth Reich by the British press while the Guardian has opted to become the leading producer of divisive identity politics and the BBC has striven for "Balance" by attempting to offend nobody and failing everyone.

Successive Labour and Conservative governments had opportunities to try and make the UK less unequal. Instead, they did the opposite. Smashing unions, hollowing out institutions, the Iraq war, the expenses scandal, letting the north, Scotland, Wales and NI rot while London and the southeast flourish while trying to sell off the NHS piecemeal were the orders of the day and this is the result. You can't create a chasm of inequality and then complain when people on either side of said chasm view each other with hostility. This is the result and it was made in Britain.

RobMc59

Hurrache wrote: »

This is exactly the type of ignorance I was talking about.

Although the UK itself is to blame for brexit,the attitude"lets get on with it!"which seems to worryingly be growing in the UK is fuelled by what is fast becoming a siege mentality by some.

FreudianSlippers

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Not me!

I wish the troika had stuck around long enough to sort out the HSE and our lawyers.

Most lawyers aren't paid by the State - you are aware of that?

Let's get them back to deal with the plumbers, electricians, taxi drivers, etc. while we're at it?

Zubeneschamali

cml387 wrote: »

I can understand the view in Britain that they are being bullied by the EU, even it's the wrong view.

After all, did we not have the same view when it came to the bailout?

Not me!

I wish the troika had stuck around long enough to sort out the HSE and our lawyers.

Hurrache

Brexit bonus for one industry anyway, so it's not all bad news.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1074987787953336322?s=19

Enzokk

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Isn't that contradictory with the point you made directly above?

My point was less eloquent than yours, but I was conveying the same message. The mooted Irish Sea border is not significantly more onerous than the current border.

Oh, yes that is true. The impact from Brexit will be severe whichever option they choose but the Irish Sea border will be less onerous.

FreudianSlippers

Enzokk wrote: »

No, any border will have a negative impact on NI. Whichever one you pick will hurt the economy, so that is why it is unfathomable to me that any party in NI would have decided Brexit is a good idea. There is nothing good about it...and yet here we are.

Isn't that contradictory with the point you made directly above?

Enzokk wrote: »

There is already a border in the Irish Sea. There are already checks happening between NI and the rest of the UK. This is what Barnier was talking about when he said they need to soften the language on the border. It will be easier to maintain no border as all parties want by increasing checks where they are already happening, instead of creating a new border that will be impossible to do.

My point was less eloquent than yours, but I was conveying the same message. The mooted Irish Sea border is not significantly more onerous than the current border.

FreudianSlippers

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Is it true that the UK is would not actually meet the democratic criteria for membership of the EU if it were applying today? Heard that somewhere but have not found a good source for it.

No, they'd be fine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_criteria#Democracy

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

I feel this is the crux of the issue. So many people have decided that it is entirely the uks responsibility to provide the answers to this problem.
I completely accept that it is a significant problem but I don’t accept that there is a Devine right for Eu to hold on to states and perceive it as the states fault if it’s peolle decide they want out.
I think it was 74 the UK people voted to join the common market and I believe would vote in a massive majority to do that again. Those that didn’t want to go I’m accepted it was democracy and work politically to get out. In 2016 Uk voted to leave a very different beast and that should be respected. If that was the starting point there would b hope of agreement but from day one Eu and ireland tried to undermine that democratic decision and most infuriatingly used the hard won gfa as the battering ram.
Those who want back in can work politically for that. If Eu transformed then I would also be working to rejoin but Eu has became arrogant, undemocratic, and on UK exit downright difficult

People knew what they voted for in 1975. The narrative has been changed since then to somehow state that they only voted for a common market.

You will see in both of these images they talk about security and political influence. It is a stretch to say that a common market only would have you involved with these with other countries as well.

downcow wrote: »

Do you not understand that if borders in ireland upset nationalists and threaten the peace, then borders in the Irish Sea upset unionists and equally threaten the peace. Unless you believe the threat is all from republicans and that loyalists are nice guys that offer no threat. That’s what I feel is unfair in the current Eu/ire analysis / manipulation. I am seriously interested in what you think about this?

There is already a border in the Irish Sea. There are already checks happening between NI and the rest of the UK. This is what Barnier was talking about when he said they need to soften the language on the border. It will be easier to maintain no border as all parties want by increasing checks where they are already happening, instead of creating a new border that will be impossible to do.

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

An Irish sea border has zero negative impact on Northern Ireland.

No, any border will have a negative impact on NI. Whichever one you pick will hurt the economy, so that is why it is unfathomable to me that any party in NI would have decided Brexit is a good idea. There is nothing good about it...and yet here we are.

downcow wrote: »

Agreed.
Just to be clear I am not a dup voter and I voted yes to the gfa.
The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

I think you may want to have a word with the Chief Constable of the PSNI.

PSNI chief warning over post-Brexit threat

The PSNI Chief Constable has accused some Westminster politicians of failing to understand the dangers of terrorism in Northern Ireland post -Brexit.

In an interview in the Sunday Times, George Hamilton warns that the government is failing to prepare for the impact of the UK leaving the EU on the peace and security in NI.

He said that he is not getting the information and clarity needed.

Mr Hamilton said that some Westminster politicians view NI as "peripheral".

"There's a feeling that as regards the Troubles and the conflict, Northern Ireland is sorted and we don't need to worry about it, when actually we're working flat out 24/7 to keep a lid on it," he said.

Mr Hamilton issued a similar warning when he appeared before the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee in June.

This is not the EU making these threats, it is the PSNI that are warning us of the threats.

Imreoir2

Sam Russell wrote: »

Did you vote for T. May, MP or D. Cameron, MP in any of the last few elections?

You could not have voted for both, because the represent different constituencies. Also, they represent safe Tory seats, so no matter which way you voted, it would not be of much affect because enough of the constituency would vote for a Tory goat if it was on the ballot paper.

The UK must be one of the least democratic countries in the EU with its FPTP system for the lower house and un-elected Peers for the upper house, and a hereditary head of state.

Is it true that the UK is would not actually meet the democratic criteria for membership of the EU if it were applying today? Heard that somewhere but have not found a good source for it.

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

Agreed.
Just to be clear I am not a dup voter and I voted yes to the gfa.
The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

You should appreciate that this
"thinly veiled threat" is coming from your very own police force.

On either side indeed.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-46180190

Imreoir2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They just signed one with Japan, something the Japanese will replicate for the UK independently. The US are ready to go as are Australia...these should be much higher priorities then the EU. These are natural friends and allies, nations that can be trusted. The five eyes security network friends.

The moon and stars have indicated they are ready to do a trade deal too don't you know. It will all be sun and roses, because.... well, just because.

flatty

downcow wrote: »

Agreed.
Just to be clear I am not a dup voter and I voted yes to the gfa.
The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

The other thing, is that the threat of a return to violence is a fact, rather than a threat per se. Perhaps "significant risk" would be a better term, but it is the Westminster govt, and predominantly teresa may with her red lines and complete disregard for the lives of others, who is responsible. It is nothing to do with Dail Eireann.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Do you not understand that if borders in ireland upset nationalists and threaten the peace, then borders in the Irish Sea upset unionists and equally threaten the peace. Unless you believe the threat is all from republicans and that loyalists are nice guys that offer no threat. That’s what I feel is unfair in the current Eu/ire analysis / manipulation. I am seriously interested in what you think about this?

The day the referendum announced, this was highlighted as an unsolvable problem for any kind of a neat and tidy Brexit. Go back to the first chapter of this thread and you'll see that "the Irish Border" was predicted to be one hell of a headache for the UK. Guess what? It barely registered on the Brexiteer's radar. "Ireland" - to them - has always been some vaguely defined concept somewhere to the west of Oxford, Cambridge and Eton, and irrelevant to British politics.

Then the English electorate voted Leave, and reality kicked in. It is not the fault of the Irish or the EU or anyone else that the Brexiteers ignored a hugely complicated aspect of their proposed separation from the EU; and it is not "unfair" that those who said two and three year ago that this would cause ructions in Westminster were proved right.

The same applies to accusations of "bullying" by the EU. Our political leaders (speaking as an EU citizen) told us that they would secure the best possible deal for us, but as it looks increasingly likely that the UK will not ratify that deal, our 27-state EU government has warned us to prepare for a no-deal Brexit and what complications that might involve. As recently as yesterday, it was reported that the UK government is not going to describe what the practical effects of a no-deal Brexit will be for the ordinary British subject in relation to travel (Sky news report).

So how can you reconcile your preference to now vote Leave when Westminster is a rudderless ship, keeping everyone (including you) in the dark, and the EU puts everything up on the internet for all to see?

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

Agreed.
Just to be clear I am not a dup voter and I voted yes to the gfa.
The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

Sorry - who do you think is threatening violence?

The violence was between two sets of people resident in UK.

Well forgive the rest of us for not wanting British people (and of course those who identify as Irish people but are resident in the UK) killing each other again.

Nasty EU again simply expecting the HMG to honour its own agreements...

Keatsian

downcow wrote: »

The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

There is no "threat" of a return to violence by Dublin or the EU. There is a warning that a hard border could provoke a return to violence by stoking resentment and giving dissidents a target. And London agrees with this analysis, which is why May committed to keeping the border open. The argument is about how an open border is achieved, not whether it ought to be an open border or not.

Captain Obvious

The EU have been incredibly kind to the UK. Not only did they set out their position from the very start, they have respected the UK's decision and been very accommodating too. The UK, on the other hand, can't even agree anything amongst themselves. They sent their most incompetent politicians to negotiate. They have bad mouthed the EU leaders and negotiators the entire time. They have continued to lie to their people. A journalist jokes about "EU bullies" to Theresa May and it's laughed at, the Luxembourg PM says "Brexit is your choice, not mine" and they lose their minds over the disrespect. The EU has been treating the UK with kids gloves and has been patting them on the head the whole time.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

Agreed.
Just to be clear I am not a dup voter and I voted yes to the gfa.
The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

Sorry, but this seems to be implying that the EU are making threats to the UK. They are not.

The threat of violence is based on the history and the recognition that there still exists real tensions within NI. It is merely stating a possible outcome.

Are you trying to suggest that there is no threat of a return to violence? That a hard border would not result in an increase in personal form the UK security forces and thus the possibility of some people taking violent action?

You think it is all just a made up threat from Leo and Tusk?

cml387

downcow wrote: »

Agreed.
Just to be clear I am not a dup voter and I voted yes to the gfa.
The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

Well I think the "threat of violence" may well have been overplayed in some quarters.

However, here's a scenario that could play out.

Smuggling is already a big problem cross border, with dissidents involved.
With a different customs arrangement and tariff regime this would increase by a vast amount.
Customs patrols would increase on both sides.
Customs patrols would be attacked.
Security forces are deployed to defend customs.
Security forces are attacked.....and so it all kicks off.

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes.

There are no "EU wishes"

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

This is exactly the type of ignorance I was talking about.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Agreed.
Just to be clear I am not a dup voter and I voted yes to the gfa.
The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

With regard to the 'border' (and where it is) and to the GFA, the 'UK' has acceded to EU wishes TWICE and have been thwarted TWICE by the DUP and others.
The problem is not Dublin, Brussels nor London therefore.

downcow

cml387 wrote: »

Now we have all these accusations thrown back and forth and tensions mounting. A situation where the taoiseach and the PM are barely on speaking terms.

That we have gone backwards so quickly in a few years, well it makes me weep.

Agreed.
Just to be clear I am not a dup voter and I voted yes to the gfa.
The thing that has wound me up most is the thinly veiled threat of a return to violence if Uk does not adhere to Eu wishes. History should show that the threat of violence against any community simply unites them, makes them stronger, and drives them into the trenches. Unfortunately I believe your pm etc has not realised the consequences of the stuff be said about return to violence. The memories are too recent to be played around with. On either side

Hurrache

Laois_Man wrote: »

I know they disagree - But where has this come from?

I think it was suggested the other day by one of the English tabloids.

FreudianSlippers

cml387 wrote: »

I can understand the view in Britain that they are being bullied by the EU, even it's the wrong view.

After all, did we not have the same view when it came to the bailout?

The IMF were probably the more vocal party in the Troika and, in fairness, they were correct.

My recollection is that the ECB and EU were against a blanket bailout of the banks.

dr.fuzzenstein

cml387 wrote: »

I can understand the view in Britain that they are being bullied by the EU, even it's the wrong view.

After all, did we not have the same view when it came to the bailout?

I remember. However, when it came to the bailout, sense prevailed.
How would it have ended up had it been put to a public vote? Who knows.

Laois_Man

cml387 wrote: »

A situation where the taoiseach and the PM are barely on speaking terms

I know they disagree - But where has this come from?