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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Jim2007

downcow wrote: »

UK has stated clearly they will absolutely not be creating any border in ireland and wto can’t insist. The only people who will insist on Irish border is Eu so it will wither be the Irish army or an Eu army that will secure it if they create it. Simple. Unless maybe this is not being reported in ireland?

To be clear there is no WTO requirement for a hard border but there is a requirement to treat all members the same. Meaning if the UK wishes to do anything other than trade with the dozen or so non members, they will either have completely open borders or put a hard border in NI.

Perhaps you should consider posting your crap on the Daily Mail as it is not up to the standards here.

Russman

downcow wrote: »

Oh dear oh dear.
I have already said I was neutral during vote, if anything I leaned towards remain. But I think you are highlighting why people like me are be pushed to an exit position.
UK has stated clearly they will absolutely not be creating any border in ireland and wto can’t insist. The only people who will insist on Irish border is Eu so it will wither be the Irish army or an Eu army that will secure it if they create it. Simple. Unless maybe this is not being reported in ireland?

Surely that negates one of the main arguments for Brexit and taking back control of borders yadda yadda yadda ? How will they stop the potential car load of terrorists/contraband/smugglers who get the ferry from France to Rosslare and drive up to Larne and head across to Britain if there are no checks ? Not only would there be no checks but they'd have no say in framing the rules around there being no checks.

seamus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/16/jaguar-land-rover-to-axe-up-to-5000-jobs

5000 jobs! Wow I mean just wow. And yet the reality deniers continue to pretend it's not happening

It's bizarre. I flicked onto BBC news on Sunday (might have been BBC 2, 3 or 4) and happened to have a report on Brexit - May in trouble, Ireland saying this, etc.

The last piece was about the high street. Sales are down on the UK high street, again. As it has been for 3 or 4 years in a row. With one notable exception - online sales in the UK are also down.

Economic growth up, Xmas sales down. Odd combination.

What's the cause of this? According to their analyst, British people are paying down their debt from the last financial crisis rather than spending it in shops.

Not even a hint of the B-word, or the state of Sterling. Other media are more than happy to talk about Brexit uncertainty hurting the economy, but not the BBC.

Peregrinus

downcow wrote: »

Oh dear oh dear.
I have already said I was neutral during vote, if anything I leaned towards remain. But I think you are highlighting why people like me are be pushed to an exit position.
UK has stated clearly they will absolutely not be creating any border in ireland and wto can’t insist.

Link to a statement by HMG, please, which says that they will absolutely not be creating any border in Ireland.

And then, after you've done that, not before, please discuss whether you believe that statement to be credible, and why.

downcow wrote: »

The only people who will insist on Irish border is Eu so it will wither be the Irish army or an Eu army that will secure it if they create it. Simple. Unless maybe this is not being reported in ireland?

The claim has been widely reported in Ireland; it just isn't widely believed because, honestly, it doesn't look very plausible or credible.

downcow

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ah, so now as well as Brexiting, you would like the Republic to join a solo Customs Union with the UK and have a customs border with the rest of the EU?

No - you are Brexiting, not us. You are the ones changing the current peaceful status quo, not us.

I'd sooner see your lot try and enforce a hard border in Ireland. How many troops failed to do it last time, 27000 I think. About a third of your current army.

Oh dear oh dear.
I have already said I was neutral during vote, if anything I leaned towards remain. But I think you are highlighting why people like me are be pushed to an exit position.
UK has stated clearly they will absolutely not be creating any border in ireland and wto can’t insist. The only people who will insist on Irish border is Eu so it will wither be the Irish army or an Eu army that will secure it if they create it. Simple. Unless maybe this is not being reported in ireland?

Peregrinus

downcow wrote: »

What do you mean by ‘hard’ border? And you are having a laugh if you want me to believe that the Eu interest is in ensuring UK keeps a promise with itself.

No, the UK is expected to honour the guarantee it has given to Ireland and the EU.

downcow wrote: »

And give me that definition of ‘hard’ border please

It's right there in the Joint Report, para 43:

The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls.

(And of course the mechanism by which this commitment will be honoured - if all else fails, the backstop - is also right there in the Joint Report.)

Russman

downcow wrote: »

If Eu are concerned about have checks then why not propose for them to be within their jurisdiction ie English Channel between France and ireland rather than demanding they are within the UK jurisdiction??

Why would the EU cut off one of its own members (ie Ireland) by doing that just to suit the UK ?
This craic of nobody wants to put up a border and if nobody bothers with one then everything will be fine is a bit mad. There simply has to be a border if there's no agreement, its not rocket science. The EU (which includes us) can't have a situation where there are goods of an unknown standard/nature freely entering their marketplace.

Podge_irl

downcow wrote: »

That’s a fairly one sided view. The UK have no intention of creating any border or checks at Irish border. It is eu that is threatening them (which is ironic as the eu paints itself as the open all embracing one). If Eu are concerned about have checks then why not propose for them to be within their jurisdiction ie English Channel between France and ireland rather than demanding they are within the UK jurisdiction??

No matter how many times this is said, it is not correct. You can not simply let people and products from a different regulatory system flow unchecked across your border.

Peregrinus

downcow wrote: »

That’s a fairly one sided view. The UK have no intention of creating any border or checks at Irish border.

No, no. You can't take this seriously. The default condition for international borders is that they are controlled. The border in Ireland is open because of bilaterally agreed arrangements that keep it open. The UK is proposing to withdraw from those arrangements; that alone makes it impossible to say (with a straight face) that they "have no intention of creating any border or checks". It's like me removing the chair from under you, while saying that I have no intention of causing you to fall.

And where the stated reason for the UK withdrawing from those arrangements is "to take back control of our borders", it's doubly hard to take seriously the pretence that they have no intention of controlling their only land border.

downcow wrote: »

It is eu that is threatening them (which is ironic as the eu paints itself as the open all embracing one). If Eu are concerned about have checks then why not propose for them to be within their jurisdiction ie English Channel between France and ireland rather than demanding they are within the UK jurisdiction??

Because why should Ireland be cut off from its markets to facilitate the UK's Brexit policy? Brexit is a UK desire, and the UK can hardly demand that Ireland should bear the downsides of Brexit so the UK doesn't have to. Bad enough that they should impose the downside on Northern Ireland, which doesn't want to Brexit but at least gets to participate in whatever benefits are supposed to flow from Brexit, but it would be outragous to suggest that they could impose the downside on another state in order to implement a UK policy without inconvenience to the UK.

The open border in Ireland, we must remember, is not something imposed on the UK by the EU; it's a stated objective of the UK. Indeed, of all their objectives in relation to Brexit, it's the one that is stated in the strongest terms; it's a "guarantee". If the British are serious in their stated objectives, and if they wish to be taken in good faith, then people will expect that guarantee to mean that the UK is willing to agree and enter into effective arrangements to ensure that there is no hard border in Ireland; if the guarantee doesn't mean at least that, then the guarantees of the UK are empty and worthless. And that's not something, I think, that patriotic British citizens would ever wish to have said about their country.

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

T If Eu are concerned about have checks then why not propose for them to be within their jurisdiction ie English Channel between France and ireland rather than demanding they are within the UK jurisdiction??

Ah, so now as well as Brexiting, you would like the Republic to join a solo Customs Union with the UK and have a customs border with the rest of the EU?

No - you are Brexiting, not us. You are the ones changing the current peaceful status quo, not us.

I'd sooner see your lot try and enforce a hard border in Ireland. How many troops failed to do it last time, 27000 I think. About a third of your current army.

downcow

cml387 wrote: »

The EU are asking Britain to keep to a redline that Britain itself imposed upon itself, i.e. no hard border between N.I and ROI.

What do you mean by ‘hard’ border? And you are having a laugh if you want me to believe that the Eu interest is in ensuring UK keeps a promise with itself. Let’s be honest with each other at least. And give me that definition of ‘hard’ border please

Christy42

downcow wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That is entirely in Westminster's power, they don't have to ask the EU for it. The EU is simply interested in conditions in NI so that no border is needed on the island of Ireland. The only reason an Irish Sea border would be needed is if Britain diverges from those conditions.

Of course, we all know the Brexiteers are dying to diverge so that they can do trade deals with Atlantis and Elfland, but that is not the EUs doing.

Exactly. The Eu is trying to dictate what happens in a country outside the Eu ie NI They should focus on solving their problem within their jurisdiction

They are trying to protect an agreement a member state (Ireland) entered into.

The UK has not declared they want out of that agreement (nor will they given the unrest it would cause) and until it does the EU will try and protect it.

cml387

downcow wrote: »

Exactly. The Eu is trying to dictate what happens in a country outside the Eu ie NI They should focus on solving their problem within their jurisdiction

The EU are asking Britain to keep to a redline that Britain itself imposed upon itself, i.e. no hard border between N.I and ROI.

downcow

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That is entirely in Westminster's power, they don't have to ask the EU for it. The EU is simply interested in conditions in NI so that no border is needed on the island of Ireland. The only reason an Irish Sea border would be needed is if Britain diverges from those conditions.

Of course, we all know the Brexiteers are dying to diverge so that they can do trade deals with Atlantis and Elfland, but that is not the EUs doing.

Exactly. The Eu is trying to dictate what happens in a country outside the Eu ie NI They should focus on solving their problem within their jurisdiction

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

Quite simply the same guarantees of no border in Irish Sea as eu are wanting on the Irish border.

That is entirely in Westminster's power, they don't have to ask the EU for it. The EU is simply interested in conditions in NI so that no border is needed on the island of Ireland. The only reason an Irish Sea border would be needed is if Britain diverges from those conditions.

Of course, we all know the Brexiteers are dying to diverge so that they can do trade deals with Atlantis and Elfland, but that is not the EUs doing.

downcow

Peregrinus wrote: »

This is certainly possible; it's the situation that prevails right now, and it's a situation that the EU would be perfectly happy to see continue indefinitely.

But having an open border isn't like having open curtains; a decision that can be made independently of other considerations like laws, customs, taxes, etc. A border is simply the point at which one set of laws and taxes gives way to another. Having an open border requires alignment of the laws and taxes on each side. Currently they are aligned, which is why the borders are open right now. It's the UK that wants to dismantle this alignment; it's therefore the UK whose position precludes the request you are making.

Your request can only be met by the UK either abandoning Brexit, or committing to a UK-wide very soft Brexit. Which is a perfectly reasonable thing to ask, but make no mistake; you have to ask it of the UK, since only the UK can grant it.

That’s a fairly one sided view. The UK have no intention of creating any border or checks at Irish border. It is eu that is threatening them (which is ironic as the eu paints itself as the open all embracing one). If Eu are concerned about have checks then why not propose for them to be within their jurisdiction ie English Channel between France and ireland rather than demanding they are within the UK jurisdiction??

Zubeneschamali

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well that's exactly my point

So you think Labour should have deliberately done badly in the election so that the Tories could win outright and do exactly as they wanted?

I can see why Corbyn might not agree.

Hurrache

prinzeugen wrote: »

The official statement from JLR did not mention Britex once.

Why would it as it's not a thing, no matter how often you type it. Unless you do mean a fabric company or are mistyping the child car seat company?

Akrasia

Here's another analogy
You're working at a big company who have just announced that they're making changes to work conditions
They're cutting pensions for everyone
They're cutting wages for everyone
They're cutting health insurance for everyone

The staff go for a ballot on industrial action which is carried

After a strike, they come back with a deal, which is:
The company will honour existing pensions and only cut them from now on (meaning young people get shafted while older people are fine)
They're not cutting wages for everyone, they're freezing them for 5 years and cutting them for new hires (meaning senior employees keep their high wages while junior employees will fall below the poverty line
They're not cutting health insurance for employees, but no longer providing subsidised health cover for the spouses and children of employees (again, affecting younger employees more than older staff)

In the 'only one vote counts' version of democracy, if the union leadership (made of mostly older and more experienced workers) decide to accept the deal than that's fine for everyone despite the majority of the membership being screwed to protect the interests of the leadership

In the version of democracy where the members get a vote on the final deal, the leaders would be told to take a long walk off a short plank and to negotiate a deal that benefits everyone and not just a small subsection of the membership.

lawred2

Water John wrote: »

The Tories own Brexit, blaming anyone else is just deflection.

A failure to offer a credible alternative or counter narrative on Brexit for the last two years is entirely labour's own doing.

Enzokk

Water John wrote: »

The Tories own Brexit, blaming anyone else is just deflection.

And yet if the polls are to be believed if Labour gives the Tories an easy ride they will lose votes to the LibDems and will not pick up any Leave voters. So while they are not responsible if they allow a hard Brexit to go through they will be held responsible by their own voters.

Peregrinus

downcow wrote: »

Quite simply the same guarantees of no border in Irish Sea as eu are wanting on the Irish border. It’s not much to ask that we don’t have greater checks at a regional border inside a nation that at a international border. I am baffled why this is being seen as an unreasonable request. Same conditions ie prob won’t happen, most likely temp and both eu and UK must agree to its removal. Simple.

This is certainly possible; it's the situation that prevails right now, and it's a situation that the EU would be perfectly happy to see continue indefinitely.

But having an open border isn't like having open curtains; a decision that can be made independently of other considerations like laws, customs, taxes, etc. A border is simply the point at which one set of laws and taxes gives way to another. Having an open border requires alignment of the laws and taxes on each side. Currently they are aligned, which is why the borders are open right now. It's the UK that wants to dismantle this alignment; it's therefore the UK whose position precludes the request you are making.

Your request can only be met by the UK either abandoning Brexit, or committing to a UK-wide very soft Brexit. Which is a perfectly reasonable thing to ask, but make no mistake; you have to ask it of the UK, since only the UK can grant it.

prawnsambo

MarkHenderson wrote: »

As it should. The electorate is constantly told that the ballot box is the real place to protest and make a change and the majority in the UK could possibly have that taken from them by the establishment. Sometimes violence is inevitable. Think the miners strikes times 100.

You mean by themselves. Nobody asking for a second referendum is proposing taking the vote from the people who voted to leave the last time around. This snapshot democracy is a strange thing. Especially from the standpoint of a country that has probably the least democratic electoral system in Europe: One third safe seats in parliament, an unelected house of lords and a FPTP system that disenfranchises people depending on where they live.

Oh, and no actual written constitution.

Akrasia

MarkHenderson wrote: »

As it should. The electorate is constantly told that the ballot box is the real place to protest and make a change and the majority in the UK could possibly have that taken from them by the establishment. Sometimes violence is inevitable. Think the miners strikes times 100.

Also Sky news has been ridiculously anti Brexit/democracy since the day of the peoples vote. Good enough for them.

This is a shocking statement!

Democracy does mean change is best brought about by the ballot box, but what you've just supported is the concept that the public should only get asked one question once, and then after that, they have to accept whatever the political establishment interpret that vote to mean no questions asked.

That's nonsense. The 'people's vote' campaigners are pro democracy. They want the chance to ratify the 'deal' negotiated by their government

Those who oppose a referendum on the deal and threaten violence are not democratic, they're trying to initimidate and frighten and bully their way into having things their way.

Democracy isn't a 'fire and forget' single use weapon. It's a process. The people made a decision in 2016 to leave the EU (in the context of some illegal, misleading and manipulative campaigning on the leave side) but since then it has become patently obvious that that single question wasn't high resolution enough to capture what it was that people actually preferred.

If you're working and want a change to your employment conditions, your union will ballot its members for industrial action. If the members agree, they go on strike until the leadership brings proposals, a deal, back to the membership to vote on. If the members don't like the deal, they can vote to reject it. If you want something to be democratic, the final decision should be with the electorate, not the first vague 'mandate'.

When you have thugs and totalitarians threatening violence because they know that their side would lose in an upcoming vote, that's not democracy.

Peregrinus

MarkHenderson wrote: »

As it should. The electorate is constantly told that the ballot box is the real place to protest and make a change and the majority in the UK could possibly have that taken from them by the establishment.

No. But they are in danger of having it stolen from them by the leadership of the Brexit movement.

It was a deliberate policy on the part of leading Leavers, during the 2016 referendum, not to articulate a practical, workable vision of Brexit. They were concerned that once they got specific and particular they would start to lose support from people who disliked the EU, but also disliked this or that feature of the model of Brexit proposed. So they campaigned on the basis of an "all things to all men" Brexit. The UK would keep all the advantages of EU membership, without the obligations of being a member. The UK would massively disrupt its trading relationships, with no impact on trade. The UK would control immigration, with no effect on the correponding rights of British citizens. And so forth.

The tactic worked, in so far as the Leavers won the referendum. And, given the thin margin of victory, it was probably a necessary tactic.

But it left the job half-done. They had secured a mandate for leaving in principle, but no mandate for any policy to leave. Or, if you prefer, a similar mandate for a large variety of different and inconsistent policies for leaving. If the referendum confers a mandate for a no-deal Brexit, it also confers an equally strong mandate for an EEA Brexit, and a Norway plus Brexit, and a Canada Brexit, and every other kind of Brexit, realistic or unrealistic.

So the second half of the challenge was actually to come up with a practical, workable, viable, non-disastrous model for Brexiting, and to consolidate public support for it. Having won the referendum, there was very much a following wind for this project. Leavers were flushed with victory, and disposed to be enthusiastic in their consideration of actual proposals to effect Brexit. Remainers, for the most part, accepted that they had lost the referendum and that Brexit would ensue; they might hope to influence the shape of that Brexit but not, for the most part, to avert it.

And this was where the leave movement dropped the ball. Various leaders either withdrew from the field entirely, or leant their names and reputations to frankly ludicrous proposals (not looking at anyone in particular, Boris) or tried to press for an ultra-hard Brexit which, a moment's thought would have shown, was unlikely to obtain and retain enduring public support. None of them seemed to recognise the challenge that they had set themselves, and certainly none of them stepped to that challenge and tried to meet it.

I think their mistake was to treat the referendum as the final victory, rather than what it was - a golden opportunity. The result was that, having created that golden opportunity for themselves, they then squandered it. If they had seriously set about devising a Brexit which could command the broad assent of the British people, they were well set to succeed in that. But they never tried, and now the moment has passed. They have done more to alienate potential support than can be remedied at this stage.

The wise Brexiter would have welcomed a second referendum - would, indeed, have seen it as part of an overall strategy to obtain, first, democratic agreement in principle to brexit and, secondly, democratic endorsement of a specific brexit proposal, akin to the endorsement of the terms of EC membership secured by the 1975 referendum, which famously settled matters for a generation. That would be an enduring victory for Brexit. But it's a victory Brexiters have chosen not to seek.

Brexit supporters may be angry at the way events are unfolding but, if their anger is directed at the establishment, it is misdirected; their problems are the result of choices made by their own leadership. And if their anger is directed at the prospect of a second referendum, well, that confirms that they know they have lost the support of the people for Brexiting. If they thought the people would reaffirm their support, they would welcome a second vote.

downcow

Peregrinus wrote: »

What do you mean by "a backstop in the Irish sea"?

Quite simply the same guarantees of no border in Irish Sea as eu are wanting on the Irish border. It’s not much to ask that we don’t have greater checks at a regional border inside a nation that at a international border. I am baffled why this is being seen as an unreasonable request. Same conditions ie prob won’t happen, most likely temp and both eu and UK must agree to its removal. Simple.

[Deleted User]

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If Labour were actively for Remain and overturning the Referendum result, the Tories would have done better in that GE, not worse.

Well that's exactly my point

A better GE result would have meant no DUP propping up the government and thus the border and backstop would not have become the drama they became.
The WA would have been agreed months ago.

Remember May and the EU had this sorted in early Dec 2017 before the DUP got wind of it.

Zubeneschamali

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Had Labour had a more unambiguous on Brexit back in April 2017 May would have not dared called a GE

If Labour were actively for Remain and overturning the Referendum result, the Tories would have done better in that GE, not worse.

Leroy42

Sky have been anti democracy? Really.
Have you examples? What alternative are they pushing?

Water John

The Tories own Brexit, blaming anyone else is just deflection.