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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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downcow

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Take your pick

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901452&postcount=582

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901462&postcount=583

I just got to the second

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901473&postcount=584

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901563&postcount=585

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901716&postcount=590

I just got to the second one so far and this is the thing that has turned most neutral people into brexiteers. The unapologetic use of the gfa to justify the backstop. You tell me what this has to do with gfa?

downcow

Mezcita wrote: »

Not voting was your first mistake.

And just why was that? There was no don’t know option!

seamus

downcow wrote: »

I have one solution thought Agree a backstop in the Irish see exactly the same as border backstop with same conditions for removal. I think the majority could wear that. What you think?

Yep, that's the most reasonable solution that most people could get behind. But the DUP have said they will absolutely refuse to accept that, and so the UK parliament will not accept it.

Ireland and the EU haven't been punishing the UK. It's been punishing itself by being unable to agree what it wants.

downcow

cml387 wrote: »

I suppose it's pointless saying this to those who post and run but...

When the UK voted to leave, Ireland had two choices:

1) Also leave the UK, against the wishes of the vast majority in Ireland

2)Staying in ,and defend its interests by demanding no hard border (something the UK have also pledged).

Once the vote to leave happened, no outcome was going to be good, only the least worst.

I don’t understand this. Help me

downcow

seamus wrote: »

Yep, that's the most reasonable solution that most people could get behind. But the DUP have said they will absolutely refuse to accept that, and so the UK parliament will not accept it.

Ireland and the EU haven't been punishing the UK. It's been punishing itself by being unable to agree what it wants.

A backstop in the Irish Sea has never been offered. That would solve dup concerns immediately I believe

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

I just got to the second one so far and this is the thing that has turned most neutral people into brexiteers. The unapologetic use of the gfa to justify the backstop. You tell me what this has to do with gfa?

Wait, the GFA was hardly discussed at all during the referendum campaign. In fact, as is the case right now, if those in charge had actually understood the GFA they would have known it would be impossible to leave the EU without either cutting off NI or exiting the EU but being in the customs union and the single market. This was the case before the referendum and it is still the case now.

Can you explain how this turns people that are neutral about Brexit into Brexiteers?

Thatnastyboy

downcow wrote: »

A backstop in the Irish Sea has never been offered. That would solve dup concerns immediately I believe

The DUP have consistently stated that under no circumstances would they accept an Irish sea border.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/dup-will-not-support-mays-irish-sea-border-backstop-plan-arlene-foster-37510936.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1108/1009679-dup/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/britain-will-not-accept-brexit-deal-with-irish-sea-border-raab-says-1.3632469

https://www.thejournal.ie/theresa-may-wedded-to-the-idea-of-irish-sea-border-says-dups-foster-4330964-Nov2018/

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

A backstop in the Irish Sea has never been offered. That would solve dup concerns immediately I believe

This is what the disagreement in December was all about. The EU proposed to ensure there is no border between NI and Ireland that they stay in the customs union and single market when the UK leaves both so they can stop immigration and make their own trade deals.

Edit: See post above mine.

ambro25

Shelga wrote: »

Yeah. I actually think No Deal is going to happen by default. The incompetence we’ve seen is incredible.

<...>

Any chance of parliament getting an extension to article 50, to allow time for another vote?

I’m on phone so not going to search and link, but it must be in there in one of the earlier Brexit threads, from around Summer 2017 if not earlier still: I’ve long, long thought that what will happen is no deal Brexit by ‘accident’, with ‘accident’ to be understood as the ultimate end result of political deadlock in the U.K. (rather than ERG-like ‘design’), and the deadlock itself resulting from the unlikeliest -but alas, factual- combination of factors resulting in the perfect political storm: no plan, no leadership, no opposition, no responsibility-taking by anyone, all against a hard deadline with an unavoidable effect if left unresolved.

The only realistic avenue that I see, for Parliament to secure (reminder: unanimous) grant of an extension of time under Art.50, would be if the vote includes one or both of remain and signing the WA (the only 2 options providing certainty for all the parties, reflecting the short-term left available under the current clock), with that vote to be taken sufficiently before the EU elections in May 2019, that the U.K. can put up candidates MEPs in case of ‘remain’: the EU is long past fed up with waiting for the U.K. to make up its mind, the current noises from Brussels and the latest announcement of ‘no more Brexit meetings’ in the clear is the EU making up the UK’s mind for itself.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

A backstop in the Irish Sea has never been offered. That would solve dup concerns immediately I believe

That would be wrong

A border between GB and NI is anathema to the DUP

(as are many other things)

cml387

downcow wrote: »

I don’t understand this. Help me

Sorry, point 1 should be "leave the EU":o

judeboy101

Corbin is reckon spineless, he had opportunity to push for immediate meaningful vote and fluffed it.

Shelga

judeboy101 wrote: »

Corbin is reckon spineless, he had opportunity to push for immediate meaningful vote and fluffed it.

Yeah, why did he lose his nerve??

May is blatantly stalling and the deal needs to be voted on ASAP as it’s clearly not going to change. 102 days to go FFS.

foxyladyxx

boggerman1 wrote: »

God things have ratcheted up.looking at sky news just now a leaver and a remainer debating.the Tory guy a prat but the background noise is like a football match.brexiteer supporters roaring all sorts.its getting ugly now.dunphy was right yrs ago when he called out a certain class of people as completely uneducated. Even skys political correspondent fisial can't think of his second name getting shouted "your not British anymore".

That is how I see it. Whatever the outcome there will be violence.

My personal belief is that it is satanic.. I don't say that lightly.

Nody

judeboy101 wrote: »

Corbin is reckon spineless, he had opportunity to push for immediate meaningful vote and fluffed it.

Well he's spineless if you assume that he'd wanted a vote; more realistically Corbyn wants a hard crash out to ensure that a) things are so bad his 50s vision of UK looks good by comparison and b) he is not held back by pesky EU requirements. If you assume that is true he's doing exactly what he needs to do; delay, delay, delay but ensure he's not held accountable (to much) for the crash out and enable him to try to introduce 50s communism back to the UK and take over companies he thinks the state should run (and then pay them unrealistic wages). That a majority of his party etc. does not agree does not change his view on the matter and once UK crashes out in 3 months time he can put down a vote of no confidence due to the disaster it will be and be close to guaranteed to get it through parliament.

downcow

Enzokk wrote: »

This is what the disagreement in December was all about. The EU proposed to ensure there is no border between NI and Ireland that they stay in the customs union and single market when the UK leaves both so they can stop immigration and make their own trade deals.

Edit: See post above mine.

Exactly my point. If they say exactly the same about the Irish Sea then we are all happy. ie not border in Irish Sea. Which, they no is equally important under gfa. But they really don’t give a toss about gfa or they would be staring this clearly.

downcow

lawred2 wrote: »

That would be wrong

A border between GB and NI is anathema to the DUP

(as are many other things)

I said backstop. Not border. Backstop ensures no border. I am amazed that most on here read ‘border’ when I type ‘backstop ‘. ðŸ˜€

Nody

May just announced that the vote on her deal will be between 14th and 20th Jan. which short of a miracle over Christmas will be voted down heavily and that's when the real fun begins and we can start seeing some movements in this mess.

tuxy

downcow wrote: »

I said backstop. Not border. Backstop ensures no border. I am amazed that most on here read ‘border’ when I type ‘backstop ‘. &#55357;&#56832;

Yes very different, the DUP would be happy with a border as they dislike the GFA.
It's a backstop they have massive issue with as they believe it could isolate them from the rest of the UK.

Enzokk

judeboy101 wrote: »

Corbin is reckon spineless, he had opportunity to push for immediate meaningful vote and fluffed it.

Shelga wrote: »

Yeah, why did he lose his nerve??

May is blatantly stalling and the deal needs to be voted on ASAP as it’s clearly not going to change. 102 days to go FFS.

It must be hard for someone who has been thinking for most of his political life that the EU is bad to then have to support it. I think he probably knows they shouldn't leave the EU but his instincts over the years make this almost impossible.

I am no fan of the Tories but if the polls are correct and voters will make Labour pay if there is a chaotic Brexit then so be it. They have made this decision themselves and if they want to ruin themselves for younger voters then they must go ahead and do it.

foxyladyxx wrote: »

That is how I see it. Whatever the outcome there will be violence.

My personal belief is that it is satanic.. I don't say that lightly.

Well if the news channels give airtime to people spouting rubbish as the tweet below and also that things will be the same as the 1930's if there are a new vote then you invite it to happen. I don't understand as the tweet implies how they invited Darren Grimes on to voice his opinion.

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1074688738175975424

LeinsterDub

downcow wrote: »

If there was a vote tomorrow I would vote leave as I feel the eu and Eire have fairly disgracefully used our hard earned peace as a bargaining chip to make brexit so painfull that UK won’t leave.

Unless you're speaking Irish , the name of our country is Ireland. I'd wager you don't refer to Spain as España

tuxy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Unless you're speaking Irish , the name of our country is Ireland. I'd wager you don't refer to Spain as España

To be fair even citizens of our country don't know the official name is Ireland.
They think it's the Repulbic of Ireland just because that's the name of our soccer team.

Sam Russell

tuxy wrote: »

To be fair even citizens of our country don't know the official name is Ireland.
They think it's the Repulbic of Ireland just because that's the name of our soccer team.

In most countries the popular (as in used by the generality of people) name for the country is derived from either the name printed on stamps or the name of the soccer team. (As in 'France' which is not called 'the Republic of France')

There is one massive exception to this rule - UK, or Great Britain, or England or whatever, as they do not have a national soccer team and have a postage stamp that carries no name of the state that produced it.

No wonder there is an identity problem in the UK.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

I said backstop. Not border. Backstop ensures no border. I am amazed that most on here read ‘border’ when I type ‘backstop ‘. &#55357;&#56832;

So a backstop that ensures no border between GB and NI? What problem is that trying to solve? A DUP problem?

Unless you mean an all Ireland backstop that means that GB and Ireland (North and South) remain within some tightly defined union... That's all well and good saying that but that effectively ties GB and NI long term to the EU.

Ultimately despite all the platitudes - Westminster doesn't give that much of a toss about the DUP's fears of being pushed further away from the union.

Maybe I'm missing some subtlety in what you mean..

Professor Moriarty

One of Jacob's young useful idiots just got owned on Sky. Facts are terrible things.

Headshot

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

One of Jacob's young useful idiots just got owned on Sky. Facts are terrible things.

love to see a video of this

Professor Moriarty

Headshot wrote: »

love to see a video of this

If you can find a rerun of the Kay Burley show it's on that. Tory boy still getting hammered as I write.

Winters

Enzokk wrote: »

Wait, the GFA was hardly discussed at all during the referendum campaign. In fact, as is the case right now, if those in charge had actually understood the GFA they would have known it would be impossible to leave the EU without either cutting off NI or exiting the EU but being in the customs union and the single market. This was the case before the referendum and it is still the case now.

Can you explain how this turns people that are neutral about Brexit into Brexiteers?

IF this had been fully understood then the Tories should never have signed a C&S with the DUP.

Professor Moriarty

Interesting Sky poll just out. 31% of people think May is the best person to lead Britain through Brexit. Unsurprisingly, only 24% think Corbyn is best. Labour really have missed their opportunity.

Regarding Brexit, 54% want to remain, 32% want to crash out., 14 % want May's deal. The tide might definitely be turning but a split remains.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

One of Jacob's young useful idiots just got owned on Sky. Facts are terrible things.

Here is link to their live video and you can go back on the video. Do you mean the Guido Fawkes guy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOacA3RYrXk