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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Hurrache

MarkHenderson wrote: »

It's slowly dawning on the Irish establishment that the UK are leaving and leaving hard. The ridiculous way in which we have backed the EU at all costs whilst attempting to belittle the democratic vote of the UK electorate will come back to bite us on the arse in the future.

What? Your post doesn't tally with reality of Irish preparations put in since the referendum was announced.

Plus, we are the EU!

Peregrinus

MarkHenderson wrote: »

It's slowly dawning on the Irish establishment that the UK are leaving and leaving hard. The ridiculous way in which we have backed the EU at all costs whilst attempting to belittle the democratic vote of the UK electorate will come back to bite us on the arse in the future.

That;'s ridiculous. If anybody has been slow in facing up to the possibility of a hard Brexit it has been the UK, where you still quite regularly see the claim that a crash-out can't happen because Parliament would never allow it. As for us "backing the EU at all costs", no; we have backed our own vital interest in avoiding a hard border, and we have been right to do so. This incidentally but necessaraily involves backing the EU because we're in the EU; our position is an EU position. Happily for us (and sadly for those with the agenda of using Brexit to undermine the Good Friday Agreement) our position is also the position of the EU as a whole.

And the most absurd claim of all is that we have "attempted to belittle the vote of the UK electorate". The masters of that art are those brexiteers who claim the right to decree what form of Brexit UK voters voted for, while wholly ignoring the promises that were made to those voters, the terms of the public debate which
led up to the vote, and the expressed wishes of voters today. These people are simply attempting to hijack the vote of the UK electorate in pursuit of a project which is very different from the project that was voted for, because the are completely indifferent to what the people actually want, and actually voted for.

10000maniacs

MarkHenderson wrote: »

It's slowly dawning on the Irish establishment that the UK are leaving and leaving hard. The ridiculous way in which we have backed the EU at all costs whilst attempting to belittle the democratic vote of the UK electorate will come back to bite us on the arse in the future.

You mean we should have allowed the likes of Boris Johnson, David Davis and Dominic Rabb ride roughshod over the Good Friday Agreement?
The GFA would never have happened under the Tories and should be protected from them at all costs.

Kermit.de.frog

MarkHenderson wrote: »

It's slowly dawning on the Irish establishment that the UK are leaving and leaving hard. The ridiculous way in which we have backed the EU at all costs whilst attempting to belittle the democratic vote of the UK electorate will come back to bite us on the arse in the future.

Why?

How will it come back to bite us?

MarkHenderson

It's slowly dawning on the Irish establishment that the UK are leaving and leaving hard. The ridiculous way in which we have backed the EU at all costs whilst attempting to belittle the democratic vote of the UK electorate will come back to bite us on the arse in the future.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/_Financeguy/status/1073883694723751936

Very interesting point. New Zealand just opened an embassy in Dublin specifically for this purpose...

Peregrinus

fergiesfolly wrote: »

How about a two option referendum: No-Deal vs Remain.
But if neither option passes with a 60% majority, the UK reverts to Mays deal and leaves.

Rjd2 wrote: »

I think that's not a bad idea, but maybe three options on the ballot, mays deal, no deal and leave? Then two with most votes go to the next round. I dunno what the treshhold should be for round 1,,,maybe 50% and you win fair and square? Or maybe the two with the most votes, so Brexiters won't feel that having two brexit options is splitting their votes. . . .

There's a constraint we have to reckon with, though. Given both the terms of UK law and the practical realities, at this point there isn't time to organise and conduct a refeferendum by 29 March. There can only be a referendum if the EU grants an extension to the Art 50 notice period.

And, while I think the EU would do that to facilitate a referendum, they won't necessarily do it to facilitate any referendum; only one that they are happy to have held.

The thing about offering "no deal Brexit" as an option in a referendum, it's essentially asking the UK voters for a mandate for the government to walk out on the UK's freely-undertaking obligations as an EU member, in particular it's financial obligations. The EU would be extremely reluctant to do anything which might be seen as them legitimising such an option. Thus, they almost certainly won't grant an extension to facilitate a referendum in which one of the options is "no deal Brexit, and the EU can go whistle for its money". And they would quite possibly take a similar attitude to a no-deal Brexit which failed to respect EU citizens rights.

So I think if the UK looks for an extension of time to hold a referendum, at a minimum they are going to have to say "come what may, regardless of the outcome of the referendum, we are committed to paying the divorce bill". And they may have to give a similar assurance with respect to citizens rights. And, hey, why not, with respect to the Irish border also?

What it comes down to is this; the EU doesn't greatly care how the UK makes its sovereign decisions - referendum, parliamentary vote, reality TV show with a phone-in. That's none of the EU's business. And it follows that the EU's interests, priorities, negotiating positions etc don't depend on how the UK proposes to make a decision. So, if the UK looks for an extension of time to facilitiate a referendum, we should not expect the EU's priorities and positions to be any different from what they are now. The EU will still be concerned to ensure that financial obligations are settled, citizens rights respected and the Irish border kept open. And the UK will have to deal with that in order to get an extension of time.

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, she said two or three weeks ago that there will be no referendum while she is the PM. People seem to be nearly forgetting this.....if one goes ahead, we would have to assume she will have left office, otherwise it is not happening.

May has said a lot of things and then done the opposite. She's nothing if not flexible.

I think she is 100% committed to the deal she has negotiated, and she prefers it over either a no-deal Brexit, or remaining. If she despairs of getting it approved by Parliament but thinks there is some chance that it could win in a referendum, she could throw her weight behind a referendum.

Peregrinus

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm not convinced about the ease of a deal with China, particularly with the UK being seen as a US lapdog and the US engaging in what amounts to a trade war.

China will undoubtedly use its economic power against the UK's newfound economic embarrassment probably to drive it as a wedge into US policy. For example how is the UK going to be able to ban Huawei to please Trump while embracing Chinese trade? And how will it be able to have a policy independent of the US position without angering the US administration? The EU has leverage due to scale. The UK doesn't

I would suspect the UK's future is going to be one of being bounced around by the US, EU and China.

Up to now, China has not that interested in free trade agreements; they don't play a big part in Chinese trade policy. It currently has a network of, I think, 14 FTAs, the bulk of them with near neighbours in the Asia/Pacific region. But recently they have taken a slightly greater interest in FTAs, in reaction to Trump's loss of interest in them; as the US becomes more isolationist, China spots an opportunity to step into its shoes, to some extent, and it thinks FTAs may have a role to play here.

What China is really interested in is investment agreements, of which it has a huge network - more than a hundred (inc. one with the UK). China's enormous trade surplus with the rest of the world means that it has vast amounts of foreign currency, with which it seeks to acquire assets abroad. So it enters into investment agreements which define and (it hopes) expand its rights to buy and own businesses, infrastructure, resources, etc. in other countries. Even the trade agreements which it negotiates have a chapter on freedom of investment.

That's the context within which the UK will be seeking to negotiate a trade deal with China. I've yet to hear any Brexiter enthusiast for an independent UK trade policy, and the negotiation of lots of trade deals, discuss this in any deatil. Or, indeed, at all.

Kermit.de.frog

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Oh how naive...if the US and the UK don’t want it to happen, it won’t ...

US I can understand.

The UK is the laughing stock of the world now consigning itself to being a not important medium sized country on the edge and outside of the largest free market in the world.

They will have no say whatsoever in what the EU does on anything if Brexit goes ahead.

The ironic thing is that the UK will be less sovereign after Brexit.

Jim2007

EdgeCase wrote: »

I would suspect the UK's future is going to be one of being bounced around by the US, EU and China.

The UK is a big enough economy to be of interest to the major trading blocks, but small enough to always be the junior partner. Junior partners do not get to negotiate, they get to turn, get told what is on offer, get to decide if they accept and maybe, just maybe, get a few window dressing items to make it more palatable at home.

This is a harsh lesson the UK will have to learn.

Jim2007

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never elected them to rule me nor did anymore I know...they didn’t even get them on any ballot

Where have you been for the past two years? all of this nonsense has been long sense addressed and at this stage it is rather sad to see you are still at the level of the Daily Mail.

Now had you paid attention at the last EU parliamentary elections you would have realized that you had an opportunity to vote for Junker as Commission President in the same way as voters across Europe have an opportunity to vote for their Prime Ministers - you elect the party who then appoint the PM.

Junker was the declared candidate of the parties that won a majority at the last election that is why he was appointed. If you were not aware of this then shame on you for not knowing what you voted for. I’d say there is more than a 50% chance YOU voted for him, congrats.

10000maniacs

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

They are also protectionist, they are scared witless if the UK free of the shackles and making a fist of it...which they will.

They are "protectionist" in protecting the 28 members from third countries outside the EU undercutting and flooding us with cheaper non-regulated produce.
Also, I heard that "unelected bureaucrats" comment before from Mogg and Farage and it does not make much sense. The EU Commission execs can only propose laws in those areas where the EU governments have unanimously agreed to allow it to do under the EU treaty. They can only propose and implement EU laws in areas where they have been given permission to do so.

EdgeCase

I'm not convinced about the ease of a deal with China, particularly with the UK being seen as a US lapdog and the US engaging in what amounts to a trade war.

China will undoubtedly use its economic power against the UK's newfound economic embarrassment probably to drive it as a wedge into US policy. For example how is the UK going to be able to ban Huawei to please Trump while embracing Chinese trade? And how will it be able to have a policy independent of the US position without angering the US administration? The EU has leverage due to scale. The UK doesn't

I would suspect the UK's future is going to be one of being bounced around by the US, EU and China.

fergus1001

cryptocurrency wrote:

Oh how naive...if the US and the UK donâ€™t want it to happen, it wonâ€™t ..well not in any meaningful,way. Most European armies are complete tin pot outfits anyway.

give them good military doctrine and standardised weapons plus tanks and swear an oath to the fuher and you'd have a pretty decent army imo

LeinsterDub

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Oh how naive...if the US and the UK don’t want it to happen, it won’t ..well not in any meaningful,way. Most European armies are complete tin pot outfits anyway.

Are you suggesting the UK or US will go to war to stop it? Because otherwise they are powerless to stop it.

ancapailldorcha

Cryptocurrency banned again.

A Dub in Glasgo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The UK has plenty in the way of services, Defence , various brand Britain items which are huge in Asia. Stick a Union Jack on anything in China and people buy it, plaster it right across the bag. That blue rag of an Eu flag not so much :pac:

A lot of the Union Jackery of products has turned folk off buying those products emblazoned with a UJ in Scotland

https://peterabell.blog/tag/union-jackery/

cryptocurrency

LeinsterDub wrote: »

London is giving up their veto on that and it will be none of their business. If we want to do it London and Washington can't stop us.

Oh how naive...if the US and the UK don’t want it to happen, it won’t ..well not in any meaningful,way. Most European armies are complete tin pot outfits anyway.

LeinsterDub

cryptocurrency wrote: »

This EU army is a gawd awful idea and I can’t see how Washington or London will let it fly

London is giving up their veto on that and it will be none of their business. If we want to do it London and Washington can't stop us.

Sam Russell

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Show me a ballot where I pick these guys, see the options and watch them go at it for my vote

Did you vote for T. May, MP or D. Cameron, MP in any of the last few elections?

You could not have voted for both, because the represent different constituencies. Also, they represent safe Tory seats, so no matter which way you voted, it would not be of much affect because enough of the constituency would vote for a Tory goat if it was on the ballot paper.

The UK must be one of the least democratic countries in the EU with its FPTP system for the lower house and un-elected Peers for the upper house, and a hereditary head of state.

[Deleted User]

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The UK has plenty in the way of services, Defence , various brand Britain items which are huge in Asia. Stick a Union Jack on anything in China and people buy it, plaster it right across the bag. That blue rag of an Eu flag not so much :pac:

Most of the tat flogged with a union jack on it are made by the Chinese themselves these days.

cryptocurrency

This EU army is a gawd awful idea and I can’t see how Washington or London will let it fly

cryptocurrency

Also it is in the national security interests of the US/UK etc that the EU is put back in the Thier box

cryptocurrency

The UK has plenty in the way of services, Defence , various brand Britain items which are huge in Asia. Stick a Union Jack on anything in China and people buy it, plaster it right across the bag. That blue rag of an Eu flag not so much :pac:

LeinsterDub

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

How did you vote in the last regal election? How did you vote for the head of the department of defense? How did you vote for in the Prime Minister election?

Capt'n Midnight

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

They are also protectionist, they are scared witless if the UK free of the shackles and making a fist of it...which they will.

Please watch Yes Minister. Civil servants the world over are unelected. The leaders of the EU are elected.

Also look at our history on referendums, the only control the EU has is what has been ceded by individual countries.

If you want to point the finger , try pointing it at Westminster.

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

Eighth lesson: you cannot, and should not want to, conduct such a huge negotiation as untransparently as the U.K. has. And in the end, it does you no good to try.

At virtually every stage in this negotiation, the EU side has deployed transparency, whether on its position papers, its graphic presentations of its take on viable options and parameters, its “no deal” notices to the private sector to dictate the terms of the debate and shape the outcome.

A secretive, opaque Government, hampered of course in fairness by being permanently divided against itself and therefore largely unable to articulate any agreed, coherent position, has floundered in its wake.

It is a rather unusual experience for the EU – always portrayed as a bunch of wildly out of touch technocrats producing turgid jargon-ridden Eurocrat prose up against “genuine” politicians who speak “human” – to win propaganda battles. Let alone win them this easily.

A Dub in Glasgo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never elected them to rule me nor did anymore I know...they didn’t even get them on any ballot

Did you vote for Leo or Enda before him to be Taoiseach?

lawred2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never elected them to rule me nor did anymore I know...they didn’t even get them on any ballot

You know you don't get to vote on the majority of your own Parliament ffs

You only get to vote on those running in your constituency.

Or did you miss that?

cryptocurrency

Show me a ballot where I pick these guys, see the options and watch them go at it for my vote