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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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cryptocurrency

Leroy42 wrote: »

They can't even manage to negotiate a deal with the EU, what deals are they going to be able to sign with these other countries.

India has already stated that increased Visas will form a part of any trade deal. The US are able to force the UK into an illegal war, what makes you think the UK will suddenly be able to drive trade talks?

Asia? Like Japan, the same Japan who just agreed a deal with the EU?

And the commonwealth. Like who? Australia have already said they will await other deals before committing to anything.

And what are the keys factors of these deals that are not available within the EU?

That’s May, if they had some hard Brexiteers in charge it will be different. Only way to deal with the EU is to be bullish. Trump would eat them for breakfast.

cryptocurrency

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Three of the people you mention were Prime Minister's of their respective countries while the other held senior Ministries. Each of them were elected time and time again by their electorates.

They aren't exactly career bureaucrats like you make them out to be.

I never elected them to rule me nor did anymore I know...they didn’t even get them on any ballot

A Dub in Glasgo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

I hear this shite sometimes in work and when I point out that the head of state of the UK is unelected and a large part of the system of governence in the UK is unelected (almost 800 members of the House of Lords!!) and the FPTP system is hardly a beacon for democracy, they squirm in their seat and become very quiet as they realise how pathetic they sound

cryptocurrency

blackcard wrote: »

You mean places where the EU already have trade deals?

They just signed one with Japan, something the Japanese will replicate for the UK independently. The US are ready to go as are Australia...these should be much higher priorities then the EU. These are natural friends and allies, nations that can be trusted. The five eyes security network friends.

cryptocurrency

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I hear this shite sometimes in work and when I point out that the head of state of the UK is unelected and a large part of the system of governence in the UK is unelected (almost 800 members of the House of Lords!!) and the FPTP system is hardly a beacon for democracy, they squirm in their seat and become very quiet as they realise how pathetic they sound

I don’t , I think the UK has Greta system. I relate far more to what is happening and the politicians in the UK then I do in Europe...couldn’t care less about them in Europe to be honest. Tusk may as well be the leader of Cambodia for all that it matters to me.

Hurrache

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats

Can't believe there's still people posting here who don't know how the EU works. You're like a bot with all the clichés.

A Dub in Glasgo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I don’t , I think the UK has Greta system. I relate far more to what is happening and the politicians in the UK then I do in Europe...couldn’t care less about them in Europe to be honest. Tusk may as well be the leader of Cambodia for all that it matters to me.

Well I gathered that from your last few posts

[Deleted User]

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They just signed one with Japan, something the Japanese will replicate for the UK independently. The US are ready to go as are Australia...these should be much higher priorities then the EU. These are natural friends and allies, nations that can be trusted. The five eyes security network friends.

Why would the Japanese replicate it independently?

Japan knows that the UK is in a tight corner and will drive a hard bargain.

Think about it. What has the UK got that Japan urgently needs and cannot get anywhere else?

This is not a negotiation between friends, it is strictly business.

cryptocurrency

Show me a ballot where I pick these guys, see the options and watch them go at it for my vote

lawred2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never elected them to rule me nor did anymore I know...they didn’t even get them on any ballot

You know you don't get to vote on the majority of your own Parliament ffs

You only get to vote on those running in your constituency.

Or did you miss that?

A Dub in Glasgo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never elected them to rule me nor did anymore I know...they didn’t even get them on any ballot

Did you vote for Leo or Enda before him to be Taoiseach?

Capt'n Midnight

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

They are also protectionist, they are scared witless if the UK free of the shackles and making a fist of it...which they will.

Please watch Yes Minister. Civil servants the world over are unelected. The leaders of the EU are elected.

Also look at our history on referendums, the only control the EU has is what has been ceded by individual countries.

If you want to point the finger , try pointing it at Westminster.

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

Eighth lesson: you cannot, and should not want to, conduct such a huge negotiation as untransparently as the U.K. has. And in the end, it does you no good to try.

At virtually every stage in this negotiation, the EU side has deployed transparency, whether on its position papers, its graphic presentations of its take on viable options and parameters, its “no deal” notices to the private sector to dictate the terms of the debate and shape the outcome.

A secretive, opaque Government, hampered of course in fairness by being permanently divided against itself and therefore largely unable to articulate any agreed, coherent position, has floundered in its wake.

It is a rather unusual experience for the EU – always portrayed as a bunch of wildly out of touch technocrats producing turgid jargon-ridden Eurocrat prose up against “genuine” politicians who speak “human” – to win propaganda battles. Let alone win them this easily.

LeinsterDub

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

How did you vote in the last regal election? How did you vote for the head of the department of defense? How did you vote for in the Prime Minister election?

cryptocurrency

The UK has plenty in the way of services, Defence , various brand Britain items which are huge in Asia. Stick a Union Jack on anything in China and people buy it, plaster it right across the bag. That blue rag of an Eu flag not so much :pac:

cryptocurrency

Also it is in the national security interests of the US/UK etc that the EU is put back in the Thier box

cryptocurrency

This EU army is a gawd awful idea and I can’t see how Washington or London will let it fly

[Deleted User]

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The UK has plenty in the way of services, Defence , various brand Britain items which are huge in Asia. Stick a Union Jack on anything in China and people buy it, plaster it right across the bag. That blue rag of an Eu flag not so much :pac:

Most of the tat flogged with a union jack on it are made by the Chinese themselves these days.

Sam Russell

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Show me a ballot where I pick these guys, see the options and watch them go at it for my vote

Did you vote for T. May, MP or D. Cameron, MP in any of the last few elections?

You could not have voted for both, because the represent different constituencies. Also, they represent safe Tory seats, so no matter which way you voted, it would not be of much affect because enough of the constituency would vote for a Tory goat if it was on the ballot paper.

The UK must be one of the least democratic countries in the EU with its FPTP system for the lower house and un-elected Peers for the upper house, and a hereditary head of state.

LeinsterDub

cryptocurrency wrote: »

This EU army is a gawd awful idea and I can’t see how Washington or London will let it fly

London is giving up their veto on that and it will be none of their business. If we want to do it London and Washington can't stop us.

cryptocurrency

LeinsterDub wrote: »

London is giving up their veto on that and it will be none of their business. If we want to do it London and Washington can't stop us.

Oh how naive...if the US and the UK don’t want it to happen, it won’t ..well not in any meaningful,way. Most European armies are complete tin pot outfits anyway.

A Dub in Glasgo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The UK has plenty in the way of services, Defence , various brand Britain items which are huge in Asia. Stick a Union Jack on anything in China and people buy it, plaster it right across the bag. That blue rag of an Eu flag not so much :pac:

A lot of the Union Jackery of products has turned folk off buying those products emblazoned with a UJ in Scotland

https://peterabell.blog/tag/union-jackery/

ancapailldorcha

Cryptocurrency banned again.

LeinsterDub

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Oh how naive...if the US and the UK don’t want it to happen, it won’t ..well not in any meaningful,way. Most European armies are complete tin pot outfits anyway.

Are you suggesting the UK or US will go to war to stop it? Because otherwise they are powerless to stop it.

fergus1001

cryptocurrency wrote:

Oh how naive...if the US and the UK donâ€™t want it to happen, it wonâ€™t ..well not in any meaningful,way. Most European armies are complete tin pot outfits anyway.

give them good military doctrine and standardised weapons plus tanks and swear an oath to the fuher and you'd have a pretty decent army imo

EdgeCase

I'm not convinced about the ease of a deal with China, particularly with the UK being seen as a US lapdog and the US engaging in what amounts to a trade war.

China will undoubtedly use its economic power against the UK's newfound economic embarrassment probably to drive it as a wedge into US policy. For example how is the UK going to be able to ban Huawei to please Trump while embracing Chinese trade? And how will it be able to have a policy independent of the US position without angering the US administration? The EU has leverage due to scale. The UK doesn't

I would suspect the UK's future is going to be one of being bounced around by the US, EU and China.

10000maniacs

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

They are also protectionist, they are scared witless if the UK free of the shackles and making a fist of it...which they will.

They are "protectionist" in protecting the 28 members from third countries outside the EU undercutting and flooding us with cheaper non-regulated produce.
Also, I heard that "unelected bureaucrats" comment before from Mogg and Farage and it does not make much sense. The EU Commission execs can only propose laws in those areas where the EU governments have unanimously agreed to allow it to do under the EU treaty. They can only propose and implement EU laws in areas where they have been given permission to do so.

Jim2007

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never elected them to rule me nor did anymore I know...they didn’t even get them on any ballot

Where have you been for the past two years? all of this nonsense has been long sense addressed and at this stage it is rather sad to see you are still at the level of the Daily Mail.

Now had you paid attention at the last EU parliamentary elections you would have realized that you had an opportunity to vote for Junker as Commission President in the same way as voters across Europe have an opportunity to vote for their Prime Ministers - you elect the party who then appoint the PM.

Junker was the declared candidate of the parties that won a majority at the last election that is why he was appointed. If you were not aware of this then shame on you for not knowing what you voted for. I’d say there is more than a 50% chance YOU voted for him, congrats.

Jim2007

EdgeCase wrote: »

I would suspect the UK's future is going to be one of being bounced around by the US, EU and China.

The UK is a big enough economy to be of interest to the major trading blocks, but small enough to always be the junior partner. Junior partners do not get to negotiate, they get to turn, get told what is on offer, get to decide if they accept and maybe, just maybe, get a few window dressing items to make it more palatable at home.

This is a harsh lesson the UK will have to learn.

Kermit.de.frog

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Oh how naive...if the US and the UK don’t want it to happen, it won’t ...

US I can understand.

The UK is the laughing stock of the world now consigning itself to being a not important medium sized country on the edge and outside of the largest free market in the world.

They will have no say whatsoever in what the EU does on anything if Brexit goes ahead.

The ironic thing is that the UK will be less sovereign after Brexit.

Peregrinus

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm not convinced about the ease of a deal with China, particularly with the UK being seen as a US lapdog and the US engaging in what amounts to a trade war.

China will undoubtedly use its economic power against the UK's newfound economic embarrassment probably to drive it as a wedge into US policy. For example how is the UK going to be able to ban Huawei to please Trump while embracing Chinese trade? And how will it be able to have a policy independent of the US position without angering the US administration? The EU has leverage due to scale. The UK doesn't

I would suspect the UK's future is going to be one of being bounced around by the US, EU and China.

Up to now, China has not that interested in free trade agreements; they don't play a big part in Chinese trade policy. It currently has a network of, I think, 14 FTAs, the bulk of them with near neighbours in the Asia/Pacific region. But recently they have taken a slightly greater interest in FTAs, in reaction to Trump's loss of interest in them; as the US becomes more isolationist, China spots an opportunity to step into its shoes, to some extent, and it thinks FTAs may have a role to play here.

What China is really interested in is investment agreements, of which it has a huge network - more than a hundred (inc. one with the UK). China's enormous trade surplus with the rest of the world means that it has vast amounts of foreign currency, with which it seeks to acquire assets abroad. So it enters into investment agreements which define and (it hopes) expand its rights to buy and own businesses, infrastructure, resources, etc. in other countries. Even the trade agreements which it negotiates have a chapter on freedom of investment.

That's the context within which the UK will be seeking to negotiate a trade deal with China. I've yet to hear any Brexiter enthusiast for an independent UK trade policy, and the negotiation of lots of trade deals, discuss this in any deatil. Or, indeed, at all.