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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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FrancieBrady

J Mysterio wrote: »

Nonsense. Blair and Major are entitled to their opinion. If May hadn't made such a hames of the last few years, i'm sure they would be more than happy to keep schtum.

The UK should listen to it's wizened elder statesmen. This is an existential crisis!

British prime minister Theresa May has accused Tony Blair of “insulting” the British people and the office of prime minister by “undermining” Brexit talks with calls for a second referendum.

The talks are over! The deal has been agreed and won't be renegotiated!

No problem with them having an opinion, but travelling to Brussels to express it?

road_high

J Mysterio wrote: »

Offering no deal on the ballot is playing Russian Roulette (pun not intended). The people - largely uniformed still - are seemingly so vexed and tired of the EU and Brexit, they are likely to vote 'no deal' to bring this to a conclusion (and finally destroy Britain).

There is a huge anti EU anti European vibe in England in particular. I don’t think people here fully grasp that, it trumps all logic of course.
A lot of them will vote out out of pure spite towards Europe. It’s the electoral equivalent of cutting off your nose to spite your face but they’ll do it...

[Deleted User]

J Mysterio wrote: »

Offering no deal on the ballot is playing Russian Roulette (pun not intended). The people - largely uniformed still - are seemingly so vexed and tired of the EU and Brexit, they are likely to vote 'no deal' to bring this to a conclusion (and finally destroy Britain).

I ventured into the BBC comments earlier and a surprising amount of people thought no deal was just leaving SM and CU.

J Mysterio

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

There has been 2 years of debate, even the most blinkered strictly come dancing watching airheads would have heard some of the arguments, if there's a no deal vote well then thats that imho

There's a reason that May keeps on repeating 'the people just want me to get on with it'. It's because they do. They are tired of the process, tired of the EU and tired of people talking the UK down.

In so many of the vox pops people still say they don't understand the complexities but that the UK 'can be great again'. Leave the EU and make the UK great again.

prawnsambo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Depends. Say you run it as a three-way FPTP referendum. What happens if Remain wins with 35% of the vote while No deal takes 34% with the deal taking 31%? I like the French-style option where you run Remain vs Leave and then another referendum of Deal or no Deal.

Three way referendums are a spectacularly bad idea. Especially in the UK where the electoral system is so technically simple. FPTP wth single seat constituencies is about as simple as it gets. No deal as an option should be off the table and robustly debunked from on high. It staggers me that it is even being considered and the only reason for it, is that those who want to leave the EU most, have basically fallen back on it since they can't come up with an alternative that actually makes sense.

And I think for a referendum to even happen, May has to go. She is the single biggest impediment to it because of her red lines and no deal is better than a bad deal rhetoric. She can't row back and she can't go forward, so she has to go.

road_high

J Mysterio wrote: »

There's a reason that May keeps on repeating 'the people just want me to get on with it'. It's because they do. They are tired of the process, tired of the EU and tired of people talking the UK down.

In so many of the vox pops people still say they don't understand the complexities but that the UK 'can be great again'. Leave the EU and make the UK great again.

Yes, make it great again by effectively pouring petrol on and setting a match to free access to your largest trading partners!

J Mysterio

prawnsambo wrote: »

Three way referendums are a spectacularly bad idea. Especially in the UK where the electoral system is so technically simple. FPTP wth single seat constituencies is about as simple as it gets. No deal as an option should be off the table and robustly debunked from on high. It staggers me that it is even being considered and the only reason for it, is that those who want to leave the EU most, have basically fallen back on it since they can't come up with an alternative that actually makes sense.

And I think for a referendum to even happen, May has to go. She is the single biggest impediment to it because of her red lines and no deal is better than a bad deal rhetoric. She can't row back and she can't go forward, so she has to go.

I agree with the first paragraph, not so much on the second. While May has been a disaster, who could replace her and agree a deal in the time alotted? Unbelievably, the other Tories are mostly worse then her when it comes to blinkered thinking and unreasonable demands.

I see that it has to be May to conclude this, unless there is to be a GE, which of course isnt to be reccommended either.

May has finally accepted that the deal is as good as it gets, which is something that probably hasnt got the attention it deserves. In Brussels, she had no more demands and only sought clarification. On the EU side, they are so frustrated, they could barely gather the energy or will to even offer that.

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Depends. Say you run it as a three-way FPTP referendum. What happens if Remain wins with 35% of the vote while No deal takes 34% with the deal taking 31%? I like the French-style option where you run Remain vs Leave and then another referendum of Deal or no Deal.

If either Leave or Remain get eliminated first then Deal wins because it's the least worst alternative for both of those.

If Deal gets eliminated first then it could go either way.

Which means Brexit is right back where it started of because they forget the rule of only asking a question if you already know the answer.

The problems are that there has been no consensus building, and completely irrelevant stuff like the divorce bill and immigration and on-demand FTA's are still clouding the issue.

Divorce Bill
The economy is already down £26Bn a year and besides any shortfall could easily be made up by EU tariffs or other charges.

Immigration
May set a target of 100,000 , so did she
A - shaft the UK economy so badly that nett migration from Poland falls to zero.
B - allow more than 100,000 in from just China and India.

She chose option C, do both

fergiesfolly

How about a two option referendum: No-Deal vs Remain.
But if neither option passes with a 60% majority, the UK reverts to Mays deal and leaves.

J Mysterio

I agree the job now is for consensus building, both in Parliament and society at large.

The problem is the uninformed and the scale of misinformation. So, the government have to do a better job at explaining why this is the best deal that can seemingly be achieved if the UK must exit the EU.

Problem is it seems difficult to achieve this now given the adversarial nature of how the UK approached 'Brexit'.

'Bureaucrats', 'keeping us against our will' etc. etc. VS 'we are sorry to see you go' and 'we don't understand it, but we respect the decision'.

prawnsambo

J Mysterio wrote: »

I agree with the first paragraph, not so much on the second. While May has been a disaster, who could replace her and agree a deal in the time alotted? Unbelievably, the other Tories are mostly worse then her when it comes to blinkered thinking and unreasonable demands.

I see that it has to be May to conclude this, unless there is to be a GE, which of course isnt to be reccommended either.

May has finally accepted that the deal is as good as it gets, which is something that probably hasnt got the attention it deserves. In Brussels, she had no more demands and only sought clarification. On the EU side, they are so frustrated, they could barely gather the energy or will to even offer that.

You seem to be talking about a deal, when that's already done and dusted. I'm in grave doubt that the EU would countenance another round of talks in a groundhog day re-run with about as much chance of success as the last round had. The problem is that there are fantasists on both sides of the HoC and there's only so many ways that you can tell these people that unicorns don't exist. Eventually you juts have to write it on paper and get them to sign it or else pretend that the whole thing never happened.

And that last option just doesn't seem possible with May in power. She has painted herself into a corner with her red lines and seems totally unwilling to countenance even talk of another referendum. I just don't see it happening while she's in No. 10. The real ballsy solution is to just put it to parliament, vote after vote: May's deal, No deal or No brexit.

First Up

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Anthracite wrote: »

We have a choice of having higher corpo tax rates and fewer good jobs. Let's not pretend that this is a simple equation. It was the corporation tax cuts driven largely by the Progressive Democrats that have made Ireland a global tech hub.

Germany has a CT rate of 32% and I doubt anyone would seriously argue that they have few "good jobs".

The Irish are beholden to the foreigner.

How very 19th century of you.

Germany does not depend on foreign investment to drive economic growth. It has a huge domestic market and a long standing industrial, scientific and engineering tradition.

We are coming from a very different place but if you would rather we revert to the economic policies of the 1950 you could start a campaign.

Peter Flynt

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Germany was building world's most advanced industrial economy while our predecessors were digging for potatoes. Ireland is beholden to our position on periphery.

I've heard of a lot of excuses to justify Tax Haven Ireland (where even the MNCs get electricity for one third the price charged to Joe Soap). . . . . but this really takes the biscuit.

Now back to brexit, and let's not derail this thread.

J Mysterio

If they must.. May Deal VS Revoke Article 50.

It cant be anything else. The Government would be grossly irresponsible to offer a 'No Deal' that could destroy Britian for generations.

It must be May Deal referendum or not I feel. Some thoughts on this:

* The EU wont renegotiate with this government. * May is now near unimpeachable for a year as Prime Minister following Tory confidence vote unless Labour call no confidence in PM * I suspect Labour won't call confidence in PM with Corbyn as leader as he knows his party would not enable him to deliver a hard Brexit (he wants the Tories to deliver and then be outcast). * Only circumstance were I see the EU agreeing to renegotiate is with a new UK government and so a GE would have to be called. * Were a GE to be considered, the UK would have to ask EU to extend A50 and thus risk accepting stipulations for that. There is no time to campaign on the issue, form a government and renegotiatie prior to Brexit Day. * I think an extension of A50 and a GE would make Brexit less likely to ever happen.
So May Deal or Revoke A50, if they must have another referendum. But for gods sake, have a referendum commission and inform the people.

prawnsambo

J Mysterio wrote: »

If they must.. May Deal VS Revoke Article 50.

It cant be anything else. The Government would be grossly irresponsible to offer a 'No Deal' that could destroy Britian for generations.

It must be May Deal referendum or not I feel. Some thoughts on this:
* The EU wont renegotiate with this government.

* May is now near unimpeachable for a year as Prime Minister following Tory confidence vote unless Labour call no confidence in PM

* I suspect Labour won't call confidence in PM with Corbyn as leader as he knows his party would not enable him to deliver a hard Brexit (he wants the Tories to deliver and then be outcast).

* Only circumstance were I see the EU agreeing to renegotiate is with a new UK government and so a GE would have to be called.

* Were a GE to be considered, the UK would have to ask EU to extend A50 and thus risk accepting stipulations for that. There is no time to campaign on the issue, form a government and renegotiatie prior to Brexit Day.

* I think an extension of A50 and a GE would make Brexit less likely to ever happen.

So May Deal or Revoke A50, if they must have another referendum. But for gods sake, have a referendum commission and inform the people.

That's about how I see his stance too. He doesn't want to be the one with the smoking gun at the murder scene, but he's happy to stand back and let the Tories pull the trigger so he can come riding in on his white charger to build his socialist utopia on the bones of the victims.

J Mysterio

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's about how I see his stance too. He doesn't want to be the one with the smoking gun at the murder scene, but he's happy to stand back and let the Tories pull the trigger so he can come riding in on his white charger to build his socialist utopia on the bones of the victims.

Agreed. But how grossly irresponsible. Maybe is is Corbyn who needs ousting.

Shelga

J Mysterio wrote: »

Agreed. But how grossly irresponsible. Maybe is is Corbyn who needs ousting.

Are the members still happy to have him as leader? It really seems like a change of leadership is desperately needed.

I know they tried and failed to kick him out before, but maybe things would be different now? He makes Labour totally unelectable.

ancapailldorcha

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If either Leave or Remain get eliminated first then Deal wins because it's the least worst alternative for both of those.

If Deal gets eliminated first then it could go either way.

Which means Brexit is right back where it started of because they forget the rule of only asking a question if you already know the answer.

The problems are that there has been no consensus building, and completely irrelevant stuff like the divorce bill and immigration and on-demand FTA's are still clouding the issue.

Divorce Bill
The economy is already down £26Bn a year and besides any shortfall could easily be made up by EU tariffs or other charges.

Immigration
May set a target of 100,000 , so did she
A - shaft the UK economy so badly that nett migration from Poland falls to zero.
B - allow more than 100,000 in from just China and India.

She chose option C, do both

J Mysterio wrote: »

Offering no deal on the ballot is playing Russian Roulette (pun not intended). The people - largely uniformed still - are seemingly so vexed and tired of the EU and Brexit, they are likely to vote 'no deal' to bring this to a conclusion (and finally destroy Britain).

It seems to be what they want though. Nobody likes the deal. From a Brexiteer perspective, it turns the UK-EU relationship into the caricature they've been peddling for decades. Remainers dislike it as they see it, rightly as being worse than what the UK had before. I can't see the deal winning any sort of referendum.

ancapailldorcha

J Mysterio wrote: »

Agreed. But how grossly irresponsible. Maybe is is Corbyn who needs ousting.

Corbyn will remain bulletproof unless the UK suffers greatly from a no deal Brexit that the Labour centrists can blame him for, not a sentiment I would disagree with.

20silkcut

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Germany was building world's most advanced industrial economy while our predecessors were digging for potatoes. Ireland is beholden to our position on periphery.

Just a reminder it was the British and their penal laws who tarriffed Irish industry to the hilt and made sure that an industrial revolution never reached Ireland.

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

Chuka Umunna in Andrew Marr saying he thinks the question on the ballot paper in a second vote should be: No Deal, or Remain. Odd but interesting position to take. Dangerous, in my opinion- there’s a real chance No Deal could win??

I fail to see how the public could be asked to vote for "No Deal" in a referendum. It would represent a chaotic and disastrous outcome to the Brexit process.....putting it on a ballot paper for people to vote for as if it was a normal piece of legislation would be downright bizarre.

Capt'n Midnight

Shelga wrote: »

Chuka Umunna in Andrew Marr saying he thinks the question on the ballot paper in a second vote should be: No Deal, or Remain. Odd but interesting position to take. Dangerous, in my opinion- there’s a real chance No Deal could win??

The only benefit of May's deal is that it is achievable and could be used as a box ticking exercise for some political promises.

It's value as an alternative to worse options isn't helping.

What's the point in taking back control of immigration when you aren't even bothering to use the existing controls ?
Vote for me and we will keep fixing the potholes, again.

And besides only 1 in 30 is sure May can get a good deal.

Do you agree or disagree that the Prime Minister will get the right deal for Britain in the Brexit negotiations?
3% Strongly Agree.
17% Agree.

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

We have essentially sacrificed all ambition on services sectors in return for ending free movement, sold the latter as a boon (when amongst other things, it clearly diminishes the value of a UK passport), and presented the former as a regaining of sovereignty, when it guarantees a major loss of market access in much our largest export market.

There's Leavers who'd rather Remain than have this deal.

prawnsambo

The latest unicorn to appear over the horizon of the sunny uplands is GATT article 24. I heard a British politician posit this one on RTE News (came late to it, so don't know who) as a 'soft landing' from a hard brexit. Having researched it a bit, I've found out that it is available to countries or blocs to zero their respective tariffs for up to ten years wilst engaging in FTA talks. However, it has to be mutually agreed and applicable to all trade, so this would seem unlikely.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/LeaveMnsLeave/status/1074243900255203328

Imagine believing this kind of garbage. Viewing things in a simplistic fashion like this is the reason the vote got through, Tim fails to mention that the EU is the largest single market in the world (I am sure they already know this) or that he won't be affected by a hard Brexit, due to his 450 million fortune.

He is also advocating leaving without paying the divorce bill, do that in one of his pubs and see how that goes down.

ancapailldorcha

By the way, Jacob Rees-Mogg left his mic on at that rally and compared the audience to members of China's Communist party. He also refused to stand at the end. Here is a condensed clip:

https://streamable.com/fqchn

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's about how I see his stance too. He doesn't want to be the one with the smoking gun at the murder scene, but he's happy to stand back and let the Tories pull the trigger so he can come riding in on his white charger to build his socialist utopia on the bones of the victims.

If Corbyn and his advisors are waiting to let the torys self destruct,as opposed to forcing a vote of no confidence before the vote on the deal then that`s what he considers his best strategy.It`s always the darkest hour just before dawn.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/antmiddleton/status/1073661776724680704

Is this the peak of it? Suffer together to being the country together?

Christ on a bike...

murphaph

J Mysterio wrote: »

Bizarre suggestion from someone who should know better.

IF they used their common sense and made it an instant runoff like an Irish presidential election then no deal should have no chance really. It would be eliminated after the first count and if not would be beaten by "remain" in the second round as it would need transfers from "May's deal" to win outright and I don't see many people who would accept May's deal also accepting a crash out. They'd surely, if reluctantly, vote to remain with their second preference if they are prepared to be "rule takers".

I think no deal has to be on the ballot to be able to put this to bed. Otherwise there will be cries of double standards from the leave side.

ilovesmybrick

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

There's Leavers who'd rather Remain than have this deal.

I just read the transcript of his speech on the Spectator blog, it's truly excellent, but the comments are disheartening to say the least

What a tedious, unimaginative little man, with zero faith in his country.

The ONLY reason there may be some disruption under a WTO Brexit is that the unelected psychopaths in power in the EU are happy to inflict any misery on their own people for their own ideological ends.

Amazing how Canada and Australia can even survive outside the EU.

this is from the europhile coward who ran away, rather than do his job

I'm afraid that the time for outlining such issues to the British public has long past. Rather than the past 2-3 years weakening some of the leading brexiteer Tories as their lies, misunderstandings, and utter bull became apparent they appear to have if not gained in strength, but at least remain as powerful and unopposed as they were before the referendum. They have also managed, with the complicity of much of the current batch of MPs, to expand the anti-EU vitriol from a minority split in the party, to a multitude of schisms and splits across the entirety of the political system with no sign of any ability to compromise or deal with one another.

And Corbyn and the Labour party need to seriously examine how they've exacerbated these issues through an appallingly weak and ineffectual opposition. Christ if you handed any Irish political party the opportunities to destroy the government that Corbyn has had they would have destroyed them electorally by now. In some regards he's even worse for his actions than Theresa May, and I have no sympathy for her. You can at least make the point that she's attempting to salvage something from this mess, incompetently so, but at least it's an attempt.

fash

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Depends. Say you run it as a three-way FPTP referendum. What happens if Remain wins with 35% of the vote while No deal takes 34% with the deal taking 31%? I like the French-style option where you run Remain vs Leave and then another referendum of Deal or no Deal.

Here is a proposal: vote #1,#2 and #3 - where all are counted, 2 points to "#1, 1 to #2, 0 to #3.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/specialreports/brexit-deadlock-this-three-way-referendum-design-could-break-it-891131.html

However, I can't see how you could allow a no vote - as in theory that prevents a deal with the EU for all time.