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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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J Mysterio

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Because the UK will cease to exist if there is a no deal Brexit.

OK, it would cease to exist if they were able to make a no deal Brexit stick. What would really happen is that Sterling would collapse and supply chains would break down before Brexit day even happened. If they got to Brexit day without a u turn, Dover would collapse and food and medical imports slow to a trickle. Government collapse in a month.

Long before the NI border becomes a problem, there'd be troops on the streets in London and the new PM would be starting talks with the EU.

Item 1: about that backstop. So a hard border will not be needed.

Reminds one of the German post war economy. I recall an anecdote where someone went for a coffee and it had doubled in price by the time they left. People carted around wheelbarrows of cash to get a loaf of bread. Ok, a crashout is not likely to be quite so bad but it will be massively shıt.

fly_agaric

joe40 wrote:

Quick question about the support ireland is getting from the EU in general. The general narrative is that this is all for ireland's benefit and if we were to change our mind, the backstop would cease to be an issue. (Perhaps time limited).
Is this really credible? Surely the EU do not want a land border with a country totally outside uk. A very porous border with a recent history fairly extreme violence.

I think it is credible (that it is mostly for our benefit).
The backstop (if it somehow came into play) would put NI in a sort of halfway house between the EU and 3rd country Rest of UK.
It could be very profitable for NI but likely to become quite messy for the EU to administer as regards the single market, customs, regulations, EU institutions etc.
That is why rest of the EU were not accepting of this "backstop" concept ever being extended to rest of UK (which afair UK tried to get into agreement at one point during the negotiations). They could accept a small, pretty poor region in this twilight zone but drew the line on whole 1 trillion euro or whatever it is UK economy ever being in a "backstop" situation.

The EU states are supportive because we are still a member. If a small member could expect no support for its position if bullied/harmed by actions of an external state when that went against economic interests of the large states (German and French industry), the EU as an organisation would not last very long. Same as EU won't be long for this world if the UK leaves and yet keeps all benefits of membership while contributing nothing and ignoring EU law on a case by case basis as it desires. It'd be the current problem EU is having with the right wing/semi authoritarian governments in Poland and Hungary on steroids.

edit: Thinking back over it as another poster suggested earlier perhaps it is the deeply ingrained clientelist/"gombeen man" approach we have to our politics that stops people from seeing this. Surely if the Germans/French can protect their own economies in Brexit they'd shaft us so there "must" be some scam being run/some quid pro quo immediately expected here? After all its what we might do in the situation! Ironically it is a little like some of the Brexiteers' withdrawal negotiation reasoning (we can cut a deal with Germany to buy their cars and then they'll whip the others into line).

RobMc59

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Because the UK will cease to exist if there is a no deal Brexit.

OK, it would cease to exist if they were able to make a no deal Brexit stick. What would really happen is that Sterling would collapse and supply chains would break down before Brexit day even happened. If they got to Brexit day without a u turn, Dover would collapse and food and medical imports slow to a trickle. Government collapse in a month.

Long before the NI border becomes a problem, there'd be troops on the streets in London and the new PM would be starting talks with the EU.

Item 1: about that backstop. So a hard border will not be needed.

I agree a no deal brexit would be extremely detrimental to the UK but your post brexit apocalyptic vision of the UK is perhaps over dramatic-remainicant of the fuss over the dreaded millennium bug which was a damp squib.

DOCARCH

Maybe it will only take some serious rumblings by Nissan for the UK to come to it's senses!

Nissan employs nearly 8,000 directly (in Sunderland), and, indirectly, a further 30,000 in companies across the UK supplying parts to Nissan.

J Mysterio

DOCARCH wrote: »

Maybe it will only take some serious rumblings by Nissan for the UK to come to it's senses!

Nissan employs nearly 8,000 directly (in Sunderland), and, indirectly, a further 30,000 in companies across the UK supplying parts to Nissan.

Nissan basically told its employees that Brexit could make operations in Sunderland difficult for them. They were like turkeys voting for christmas. And they still raced to announce the result so they could beat Newcastle. Ridiculous.

Christy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Podge_irl wrote: »

The EU is insisting on it because Ireland wants it and I have seen absolutely no indication that Ireland would have any interest at all in changing their viewpoint. The EU hasn't exactly gone off on their own here - their entire Irish strategy is being driven by what Ireland want. The UK are essentially trying to bully their way out of the backstop and you don't give in to that kind of behaviour no matter what.

Laois_Man wrote: »

What should Ireland modify its demands to?

Well, of course it is totally hypothetical, but I believe that Ireland all along would have had a different approach. Priority would have been to get a deal which maximised trade and minimised the impact of border acknowleging that some form of border is unfortunate but inevitable when a country leaves the Single Market and Customs Union. Generally a much higher weight would have been placed on getting a deal (even an imperfect one) than we have seen from the EU.

Because we are in the EU things are completely different, and because Ireland is a small country we have to be circumspect with our goals and try to make them coincide with those of the EU as a whole or risk humiliation. We therefore only get glimpses of a separate Irish position from politicians such as when they say that we would be amenable to an extension of A50 or that the EU can be flexible in their negotiations.

The situation we find ourselves in is one in which the deal agreed by May is better than we might have expected from Ireland's perspective, but it won't be accepted by the UK Parliament. Who is at fault? Doesn't matter.

Ireland's priority has always been the border. It is the way a lot of trade goes through. It also affects a large number of people very directly on the land as well as inviting back violence to those regions.

As we have seen from the US trade deals are subject to change. A backstop is a far more permanent win.

The UK has already signed up to a soft border I would also point out. They tried to take it back as soon as they were out of the negotiation room but they did. They have promised technological solutions which should assure them the backstop is not needed permanently.

Finally you have to wonder if the UK Parliament would accept any serious deal. It is well over two years since the vote and we have not gotten past Brexit means Brexit. If they ever get a position sorted out negotiations could happen.

Thargor

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-14/investors-beat-may-to-brexit-in-record-retreat-from-u-k-stocks

Economic self mutilation and it hasnt even started yet.

DOCARCH

J Mysterio wrote: »

Nissan basically told its employees that Brexit could make operations in Sunderland difficult for them. They were like turkeys voting for christmas. And they still raced to announce the result so they could beat Newcastle. Ridiculous.

I did hear in the recent past interviews/vox pops with people in Sunderland (in relation of Nissan and Brexit) saying things along the lines that Nissan are 'too ingrained to leave' and 'they really like it here'.

:eek:

Yeah....

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

I agree a no deal brexit would be extremely detrimental to the UK but your post brexit apocalyptic vision of the UK is perhaps over dramatic-remainicant of the fuss over the dreaded millennium bug which was a damp squib.

It was a damp squib because people recognised the problem well in advance and put in the work to fix it before it caused a problem, not blindly insisting that people get on with it while doing little or nothing to address the actual problem.

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

I agree a no deal brexit would be extremely detrimental to the UK but your post brexit apocalyptic vision of the UK is perhaps over dramatic-remainicant of the fuss over the dreaded millennium bug which was a damp squib.

The millennium bug was only a damp squib because it was noticed well ahead of time and countermeasures were taken that were effective. It was forward planning that solved the problem.

A UK crash out no deal would be a small problem if it followed a two year transition where new customs facilities were built and staffed, new procedures for customs documentation were put in place at exporters by extensive training and additional staff. New facilities were provided for stock keeping to cover for loss of JIT deliveries of needed production inventory. Of course, it would increase cost of production, increase staff costs, and reduce flexibility for the economy, but it would be doable - costly but doable.

With no planning and no staffing, a crash out will lead to chaos.

Current UK exporters that only export to the EU have not done export documentation for 20 years. Customs entry fees cost an average of £35 each before the local staff costs, and the total cost of these alone will dwarf the current subvention to the EU by an order of magnitude.

Chaos.

J Mysterio

Looks like BBC News don't like Gary Lineker's criticism of Brexit:

https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/1073553709722992646

murphaph

Bit cynical wrote: »

So will we.

The damage to the UK will be far worse. Ireland has an economy growing fast enough to make a hard Brexit a bump in the road. A very nasty bump for individual firms but not for the country as a whole. We essentially pause our growth for a year while the UK heads into a long and probably deep recession.

They will have little choice but to come back to the table as a third country and negotiate a FTA with a border down the Irish sea. The EU won't be talking about backstops then. It'll be straight to "NI must rejoin the SM and CU in full and the border must be open once again".

Long term it could mean poaching UK businesses and business while they "consider their position" and these businesses won't move back to an uncertain GB in a hurry.

The English and Welsh (mostly driven by large numbers of English living in Wales) will regret this terrible idea much more than Ireland ever will. Ireland should continue playing the long game.

briany

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It was a damp squib because people recognised the problem well in advance and put in the work to fix it before it caused a problem, not blindly insisting that people get on with it while doing little or nothing to address the actual problem.

Yeah, there was a lot of work going on throughout every enterprise to get ready for Y2K. Is there a lot of work going on throughout the UK to prepare for a no-deal Brexit? We've heard about how the UK government is stockpiling the essentials. Is there a lot of other work going on that we don't hear about throughout the businesses of the UK and sectors of government entrusted to look after the public good, or are a lot of people sitting on their hands in a cloud of despair, or increasingly vain hope?

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

Yeah, there was a lot of work going on throughout every enterprise to get ready for Y2K. Is there a lot of work going on throughout the UK to prepare for a no-deal Brexit? We've heard about how the UK government is stockpiling the essentials. Is there a lot of other work going on that we don't hear about throughout the businesses of the UK and sectors of government entrusted to look after the public good, or are a lot of people sitting on their hands in a cloud of despair, or increasingly vain hope?

Did they ever release all the preparation notices?

Laois_Man

Sam Russell wrote: »

The millennium bug was only a damp squib because it was noticed well ahead of time and countermeasures were taken that were effective. It was forward planning that solved the problem.

A UK crash out no deal would be a small problem if it followed a two year transition where new customs facilities were built and staffed, new procedures for customs documentation were put in place at exporters by extensive training and additional staff. New facilities were provided for stock keeping to cover for loss of JIT deliveries of needed production inventory. Of course, it would increase cost of production, increase staff costs, and reduce flexibility for the economy, but it would be doable - costly but doable.

With no planning and no staffing, a crash out will lead to chaos.

Current UK exporters that only export to the EU have not done export documentation for 20 years. Customs entry fees cost an average of £35 each before the local staff costs, and the total cost of these alone will dwarf the current subvention to the EU by an order of magnitude.

Chaos.

Add to that how Nigel Farage is bouncing around to every TV News show in the UK and the US who’ll have him propagating the illusion that the UKs trade mechanisms with countries like China works fantastically well and doesn’t change one iota on March 29th 2019. Some shock is coming their way!

Podge_irl

J Mysterio wrote: »

Looks like BBC News don't like Gary Lineker's criticism of Brexit:

https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/1073553709722992646

Did you read it? They said the exact opposite.

J Mysterio

Podge_irl wrote: »

Did you read it? They said the exact opposite.

Ah, I didnt see the tiny link there to the article. It still seems there is an implication he is doing something wrong, underlined by how they bold certain sections, including how Lineker was previously 'criticised for comments on child migrants'. Feels like the tone is to scold him, as Agnew did.

Sam Russell

There is no way a second referendum could be held before the Mar 29 19 deadline, nor could a canceling of article 50 without a huge push as it needs to go through full legislative passage.

What could perhaps ease the 'The voice of the People' is perhaps to try the 'Citizens Assembly' that we used to get over the problem of the Eighth Amendment. Pick 200 or 300 representative people from all over the UK, selected by a reputable polling organisation. Put them up in a hotel and feed them facts from experts, outlining all the opinions of how the EU works, what benefits or disadvantages that the UK has had from membership of the EU over the last 40 years of membership, and how much they could gain or lose from continued membership. The Assembly would then vote on various questions that would shape the future questions for the UK Parliament to vote on. The Assembly would give a verdict on a number of questions - not a binary IN or OUT or anything as simple as that.

The experience we got from the exercise was quite surprising. The participants appeared to take the exercise with quite a solemn seriousness that added hugely to the conclusions drawn. Since they are anonymous, they carry no burden on expressing opinions other than their own.

I think it could work, as it would give cover to HoC to do the right thing without recourse to red lines.

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

Yeah, there was a lot of work going on throughout every enterprise to get ready for Y2K. Is there a lot of work going on throughout the UK to prepare for a no-deal Brexit? We've heard about how the UK government is stockpiling the essentials. Is there a lot of other work going on that we don't hear about throughout the businesses of the UK and sectors of government entrusted to look after the public good, or are a lot of people sitting on their hands in a cloud of despair, or increasingly vain hope?

Sky news did a report on the Irish governments preparations for Brexit and the information and funding being made available to business so that they can plan, invest in alternative markets, new product lines and logistics to get them "Brexit ready". It was stressed again and again that nothing like that is happening in the UK.

I won't pretend to be an expert on the response to Brexit in the UK business community though from the reports I have read it seems that there is a huge amount of heads being buryed in the sand. Most businesses have done very little to prepare, those that have tried are hampered by the fact that they really don't know what to preare for and even if they did know what a no-deal Brexit would really look like for their business, they can't justify investing in implementing a contengency plan because it would be a huge waste of money should it not happen. While the problems of Brexit can be planned for and mitigated by Irish business in large part by securing alternative supply lines or shifting to alternative markets, these solutions are not really available to business based in the UK. They can't invest in alternative markets because a no-deal Brexit creates new barriers for all of their markets at the same time. They can't sort out alternative supply lines because the roads between their premises and the ports will become the worlds longest truck park. Those UK businesses that are big enough and rich enought to invest in proper contengency plans seem to be focusing on getting out of the UK in part or in some cases compleatly. Their contengency plans look like opening new EU based subsiduaries and moving some staff and operations to EU based branches. Many other businesses, in a no-deal Brexit, will simply cease trading, there is no plan that could save them.

Bit cynical

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You could answer both I suppose. They are almost different questions. I know Republicans who want it to happen and be unsuccessful for example, as they think this is the outcome that moves a UI closer.

I think Brexit is going to happen regardless of our wishes, whatever they may be. The only question is whether or not they get a deal and the nature of that deal.

I suppose I would go along with Ireland's stated position of wanting as much continuity as possible in borders and trade.

If the current deal passes in the UK Parliament then that is very good for Ireland. However we have to recognise the risks. The EU has had the upper hand all along and has run rings around May, but if it fails in the UK Parliament, Ireland pays the highest price, not Barnier or Juncker.

ilovesmybrick

I'm sorry, and I don't want to derail the topic, but I'm currently repairing a system that had not been fixed to deal with to deal with the Y2K issue (yes I know that's bizarre two decades later). That turned out to be a damp squib because preparations were in place and the errors were fixed. That issue could have had serious repercussions but appropriate measures were taken. Comparing a programming issue to Brexit is absolutely absurd.

Simple fact is if electoral databases holding information of individuals born post 2000 were in a system that hadn't been fixed for Y2K the systems could not register their dates of birth. Sensible preparation prevents serious consequences, which is why we're seeing the opposite with Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

seamus wrote: »

At the moment, Rome is burning and there are four Neros, all fiddling to their own tunes.

Crassus and his fire fighting scam is probably the role model for JRM & Co.

Capt'n Midnight

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Sensible preparation prevents serious consequences, which is why we're seeing the opposite with Brexit.

Even if you start preparations early you still need competent people to get stuff done.

Take a look at the UK Army Recruitment system. They used to have 27,000 troops in the North. Now it's just 77,000 and the outsourcers have made a shambles of the recruitment process. A hard border is literally undefendable.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/12/14/uk_army_recruitment_capita_nao_report/

The British Army has missed its recruitment targets by between 21 and 45 per cent each year since 2013 because of a botched project with Capita, according to a damning report released today.

... three times the original budget and four years late – it was riddled with bugs and users encountered multiple problems, ...

To add insult to injury, the online recruitment system is hosted on Capita's IT infrastructure – so it isn't clear if the Army will be able to keep using it once the contract ends in 2022.

Most of the other big ticket UK Govt technology projects are late or over budget. An e-border is pure fantasy. The customs upgrade is flaky.

Capt'n Midnight

quokula wrote: »

It’s worth noting that Corbyn campaigned for Remain, votes Remain,

Back around Friday 10 June 2016 he was very non committal when on The Last Leg

Jeremy Corbyn has said he is about "seven and seven and half out of ten" enthusiastic about staying in the European Union.

Can't find a video link of the exact moment but he sounded like he didn't really care and was just using words. Think somewhere between six and seven ,where a five is don't care and anything less is some form of leave.

Bit cynical

Christy42 wrote: »

Ireland's priority has always been the border. It is the way a lot of trade goes through. It also affects a large number of people very directly on the land as well as inviting back violence to those regions.

As we have seen from the US trade deals are subject to change. A backstop is a far more permanent win.

The UK has already signed up to a soft border I would also point out. They tried to take it back as soon as they were out of the negotiation room but they did. They have promised technological solutions which should assure them the backstop is not needed permanently.

Finally you have to wonder if the UK Parliament would accept any serious deal. It is well over two years since the vote and we have not gotten past Brexit means Brexit. If they ever get a position sorted out negotiations could happen.

Personally, I don't think any open-ended backstop would be agreed by any Parliament. Corbyn, for example, doesn't agree with it. Whoever replaces May won't agree to it. They would agree to rejoin the EU sooner than agree to the backstop and they are not going to rejoin the EU.

Why? Because the backstop is an open-ended commitment that the UK can't get out of unilaterally. Other commitments (such as membership of the EU) only exist while both parties wish them to continue but this goes on forever.

Like I said in an earlier post, us wanting something badly does not make it reasonable in the eyes of others.

It is true that the backstop is a permanent win...if it is won. But only if it is won. A trade deal is not permanent but can be achieved. Though its terms may change in time, there's generally a mutual interest in keeping it going.

Tell me how

seamus wrote: »

^^^^

I guess the problem as everyone sees it, is that avoiding a crash-out requires action. It requires unity of some description, it will require a vote in the HoC for a way forward that a majority of the house agree on.

And at this moment in time it seems that majority agreement on any way forward is a long way away. It's all well and good to say that 90% of the house agree that no deal is the worst thing, but unless you can get them to agree on something else, then no deal is inevitable.

At the moment, Rome is burning and there are four Neros, all fiddling to their own tunes.

As represented perfectly by the video of Gove and Ed Balls doing the Gangnam Style dance which was all over Twitter last night.

Incredible symbolism all over the place throughout this.

Letters falling of the wall (at the exact moment May said the word strength) at the Tory Conference last year
Unable to get out of the car when meeting Merkel this week
Character in Santa outfit telling Gove he had been a naughty boy outside Westminster
And Gove dancing while May metaphorically on her knees in Europe

Water John

Jo Johnson has it in The Times tomorrow that Downing St staff are already looking at 2nd Ref. Some in Cabinet already pushing for it.

Tell me how

Water John wrote: »

Jo Johnson has it in The Times tomorrow that Downing St staff are already looking at 2nd Ref. Some in Cabinet already pushing for it.

Key thing will be options and wording.
I wouldn't put it past them to say "This deal" or "No Deal"

They're not going to open the door with a "Remain" option.

Infini

Water John wrote: »

Jo Johnson has it in The Times tomorrow that Downing St staff are already looking at 2nd Ref. Some in Cabinet already pushing for it.

Penny might be finally dropping that they've run out of road and simply HAVE no other option but to put this to a rerun before they literally run off the cliff edge.
A 2nd referendum would also allow an A50 extention/cancellation to pass the EU as well.

Infini

Tell me how wrote: »

Key thing will be options and wording.
I wouldn't put it past them to say "This deal" or "No Deal"

They're not going to open the door with a "Remain" option.

No deal simply is not an option if there's a referendum it's May's deal or Remain end of story. No Deal won't be counternanced as it literally would be turkeys voting for christmas and cause the ultimate breakup of Britain. The Bullshíteers like Moggles have been put back in their box where they belong if May wants an end to this without a trainwreck that's her only option.