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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Zubeneschamali

Laois_Man wrote: »

The EU have no say whatsoever in what options the UK puts on its ballot paper! .

UK: "Can we have an extension on A50 to have a referendum?"

EU: "That depends, what'll be on the ballot paper?"

UK: "May's deal or No Deal"

EU: "In that case, no. Yer out on March 29th, bye."

Laois_Man

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UK: "Can we have an extension on A50 to have a referendum?"

EU: "That depends, what'll be on the ballot paper?"

UK: "May's deal or No Deal"

EU: "In that case, no. Yer out on March 29th, bye."

Except the answer to that question would be " "Remain or May's deal or No Deal"

Skelet0n

James O'Brien had a great caller from Mayo talking about how important the GFA is.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obriens-caller-brexit-good-friday-agreement/

Powerful stuff, falling on deaf ears in the UK though.

bob mcbob

joe40 wrote: »

In a similar vein, I always found it strange that NI, Scotland and wales have devolved parliments, but not England.

The North East region was offered it but rejected it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_North_East_England_devolution_referendum

Ignored by Westminister but happy that way

Laois_Man

bob mcbob wrote: »

The North East region was offered it but rejected it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_North_East_England_devolution_referendum

Ignored by Westminister but happy that way

The comments at the bottom of the page are far more interesting than the call!

Hilarious stuff!

fash

Keatsian wrote: »

But if the UK leaves with no deal because the people voted to leave with no deal? Then it becomes very, very difficult for any London government to return to talks in the short to medium term.

Good point. No where to go if the people say "no deal". No trade agreements possible with anyone if there is never a way back to at least an agreement with the EU.

Shelga

Why is David Davis still invited on to programmes like Question Time? Caroline Lucas was visibly angry when telling him he was playing fast and loose with people's lives. Blithely saying that leaving without a deal will be fine.

This is the man who thinks there is a transition period with no deal. Why on earth does no one call him out on this absolute bullshit? JLR and other companies have said they will have no choice but to leave the UK if there is no deal. Manufacturing will be utterly decimated.

I honestly don't know how someone in the audience didn't go for him. He is despicable, as is the BBC for indulging his dangerous lies.

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Why is David Davis still invited on to programmes like Question Time? Caroline Lucas was visibly angry when telling him he was playing fast and loose with people's lives. Blithely saying that leaving without a deal will be fine.

This is the man who thinks there is a transition period with no deal. Why on earth does no one call him out on this absolute bullshit? JLR and other companies have said they will have no choice but to leave the UK if there is no deal. Manufacturing will be utterly decimated.

I honestly don't know how someone in the audience didn't go for him. He is despicable, as is the BBC for indulging his dangerous lies.

To the intelligent and informed, Davis is proof that Brexit is madness. To the conditioned and brainwashed, he is a British bulldog sticking it to Johnny Foreigner. To be fair, the BBC must also cater for the useful idiots.

ancapailldorcha

Shelga wrote: »

Why is David Davis still invited on to programmes like Question Time? Caroline Lucas was visibly angry when telling him he was playing fast and loose with people's lives. Blithely saying that leaving without a deal will be fine.

This is the man who thinks there is a transition period with no deal. Why on earth does no one call him out on this absolute bullshit? JLR and other companies have said they will have no choice but to leave the UK if there is no deal. Manufacturing will be utterly decimated.

I honestly don't know how someone in the audience didn't go for him. He is despicable, as is the BBC for indulging his dangerous lies.

The BBC has become the mouthpiece of the establishment which means not criticising the new boss or any future boss which is also why Jeremy Corbyn gets such an easy ride. I'm not sure how much better Channel 4 are either when Barry Gardiner has been repeatedly allowed to spout mistruths about renegotiating with the EU.

cml387

The advantages of having David Davis on is that he appears normal (until he opens his mouth of course).
Some of the Brexiteers seem human, but some expression or sideways glance or turn of phrase gives them away and then their alien origins are clear.

Nobody can convince me that Jacob Rees Mogg wasn't assembled on some distant planet from a set of "English Toff" blueprints.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/brehonisbest/status/1073491717570117634

It's all quite humiliating isn't it?

ilovesmybrick

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/brehonisbest/status/1073491717570117634

It's all quite humiliating isn't it?

It's actually kind of worth watching the full video here https://luxtimes.lu/european-union/35921-brexit-is-your-choice-not-mine-says-bettel

Tell me how

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's all quite humiliating isn't it?

Came here to post that.

EU are fast running out of patience. Irrespective of what happens May, a different deal WILL NOT be negotiated.

Choice between No Deal/2nd Referendum is all that's left now it looks like.

ilovesmybrick

Tell me how wrote: »

Came here to post that.

EU are fast running out of patience. Irrespective of what happens May, a different deal WILL NOT be negotiated.

Choice between No Deal/2nd Referendum is all that's left now it looks like.

Yet if you look at the Express the headline is

Luxembourg Prime Minister RAGES about no-deal – 'Brexit was YOUR idea, not mine!

I didn't see much rage there, just pure bemusement!

Shelga

Do people like Davis genuinely think the EU is going to backtrack at the very last minute? Why would they?

The UK has a hell of a lot more to lose than the EU, in the event of a no deal. What a colossal risk to take, when it's now clear that it's a bluff anyway.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The BBC has become the mouthpiece of the establishment which means not criticising the new boss or any future boss which is also why Jeremy Corbyn gets such an easy ride. I'm not sure how much better Channel 4 are either when Barry Gardiner has been repeatedly allowed to spout mistruths about renegotiating with the EU.

Watching Twitter during QT last night there were posts calling it both Tory propaganda and Remain advertisers.

Think a political media can consider itself as doing a good job when both sides hate them.

Personally, I do feel the personal leanings of their staff seeps through from time to time.

Same could be said of C4 to some degree where most seem to be of the remain persuasion.

Leroy42

I see TM and Juncker had a bit of a spat at the parliament today. Channel 5 have 'hired' some 'expert lip readers' to work out what was said.

it appears that TM is annoyed that Juncker called her nebulous.

To me, this goes to the very heart of the problem. He called he position nebulous, but even if he did say it about her, she is supposed to be above this playground stuff. She is supposed to be working on getting a renegotiation but appears to be more worried about how she is perceived.

Stop messing about and get on with the real work.

josip

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Yet if you look at the Express the headline is

I didn't see much rage there, just pure bemusement!

I think we have to accept at this stage that the UK will crash out on the 29th, will stay out and move further away.
The British I know who are educated enough to stop this, simply repeat, "Oh, the politicians will work something out", any time I ask them about their plans.
The remaining British who are not able to inform themselves, will read the Express headline, never read the full article or watch the full clip, and will remain in cloud cuckoo land.
I no longer have any hope.

Professor Moriarty

josip wrote: »

I think we have to accept at this stage that the UK will crash out on the 29th, will stay out and move further away.
The British I know who are educated enough to stop this, simply repeat, "Oh, the politicians will work something out", any time I ask them about their plans.
The remaining British who are not able to inform themselves, will read the Express headline, never read the full article or watch the full clip, and will remain in cloud cuckoo land.
I no longer have any hope.

The Express has all the gravitas of the Beano.

Bit cynical

Tell me how wrote: »

I do have a small, sneaky feeling in the back of my mind that at some point in the future, we in Ireland will be in a situation where we are being told we are expected to pay for the support which Ireland was given by Europe at this time.

I don't think we have really been given support it is just that Ireland's interests to avoid a hard border coincided with the EU's desire to make brexit difficult for the UK. The problem is that making brexit difficult for the UK may have an outcome that Ireland does not want.

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see TM and Juncker had a bit of a spat at the parliament today. Channel 5 have 'hired' some 'expert lip readers' to work out what was said.

it appears that TM is annoyed that Juncker called her nebulous.

To me, this goes to the very heart of the problem. He called he position nebulous, but even if he did say it about her, she is supposed to be above this playground stuff. She is supposed to be working on getting a renegotiation but appears to be more worried about how she is perceived.

Stop messing about and get on with the real work.

The only bit of real work left, that we know of, is for May to take her deal back to the Commons where it will be shot to bits like a clay pigeon.

What happens after that is anybody's guess.

Will there be a second referendum? Hard to say. It certainly won't be on the current timescale, anyway. I presume that it would need to be OK'd by parliament. Also, somebody mentioned a clause in the Great Repeal act which said the UK would stop observing current EU treaties on 30th March, so if that's true then that would probably need changing, too. Basically, it would potentially require a lot more arguing when there just isn't the time.

Somebody on Question Time mentioned a Citizen's Jury deciding whether to revoke A50. Interesting idea. At least it's a change from the circular arguments going on.

At this point, my money would be on May having no choice but to put the deal to a vote, and when it gets crushed, she'll resign the next day. Some Karl Donitz type figure will lead the UK into a no-deal exit, while the ERG clink champagne glasses in the background.

Tell me how

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think we have really been given support it is just that Ireland's interests to avoid a hard border coincided with the EU's desire to make brexit difficult for the UK. The problem is that making brexit difficult for the UK may have an outcome that Ireland does not want.

Username fits the bill.:pac:

LeinsterDub

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think we have really been given support it is just that Ireland's interests to avoid a hard border coincided with the EU's desire to make brexit difficult for the UK. The problem is that making brexit difficult for the UK may have an outcome that Ireland does not want.

Yeah because it the EU that is acting like children in the HoC.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

Somebody on Question Time mentioned a Citizen's Jury deciding whether to revoke A50. Interesting idea. At least it's a change from the circular arguments going on.

Caroline Lucas of The Green Party I think.

Water John

Parliament won't allow a Crash out Brexit. May's Deal gets defeated. LB move a no confidence and lose that. Then we move to a situation where a majority of MPs are in favour of a 2nd Ref. That requires an extension to Art 50.
Main decision is, what is on the ballot paper.

Blowfish

As I see it there are only the 3 options left, remain, May's deal and No Deal. The best thing that I can think of for May is to create a 'shit or get off the pot' moment in parliament between those 3 options.

She'd need to be completely up front and obvious ahead of time about what she is doing and that each MP will have to justify their choices to their constituents when she does the following:

Put forward legislation that states something along the lines of 'if there is no agreement between EU & UK by Jan 21st, the UK will withdraw Article 50. The result of this will then be the 'default' option depending on the second proposal.

Put forward her deal for a vote. It'll then be a choice between her deal and whatever parliament chose above.

It would be far from perfect for anyone, but forcing Parliament to actually chose something is about the only thing she can do.

LuckyLloyd

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think we have really been given support it is just that Ireland's interests to avoid a hard border coincided with the EU's desire to make brexit difficult for the UK. The problem is that making brexit difficult for the UK may have an outcome that Ireland does not want.

The answer to this was and continues to be (and will continue to be) that, if faced with the following choices:

A) A negotiated settlement that compromises SM integrity and the working operation of the GFA

B1) No Deal with a consequent imposition of a Hard Border
B2) Clear violations of GFA commitments on the part of the UK
B3) Economic hardships in the UK as a consequence of a disorderly exit

Then we take the second choice. Because it creates a possibility in the short to medium term of recovering the current situation. If we negotiate away the current situation then it is gone forever and, worse, we agreed to it.

Christy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Tell me how wrote: »

I do have a small, sneaky feeling in the back of my mind that at some point in the future, we in Ireland will be in a situation where we are being told we are expected to pay for the support which Ireland was given by Europe at this time.

I don't think we have really been given support it is just that Ireland's interests to avoid a hard border coincided with the EU's desire to make brexit difficult for the UK. The problem is that making brexit difficult for the UK may have an outcome that Ireland does not want.

The EU have tried. Short of sending them state aid like a 3rd world country (or intentionally side the trade deal towards the UK like some do in lieu of state aid) they could not be more accommodating. The EU wanted a soft border because well, it is in the interest of EU citizens (Irish) to not have it and it is no skin off the rest of them.

I would agree that the EU will not be with Ireland through everything. Everyone has their own interests in the club. No other country will ever be totally with Ireland through everything. All we, or any other country, can do is make deals with countries whose interests align with your own. That means the EU.

Leroy42

No deal crash out is the default.

When people claim that the HoC won't allow it, it is only partially in their gift. They would not only need to vote against the no deal, but then vote in something that the EU will accept. Either accept the deal or extend/cancel A50.

There is very little evidence to suggest that HoC is willing to do either or those.

So despite the HoC claiming they won't allow a No Deal, come 30th March that is exactly what will happen.

hill16bhoy

Water John wrote: »

Parliament won't allow a Crash out Brexit. May's Deal gets defeated. LB move a no confidence and lose that. Then we move to a situation where a majority of MPs are in favour of a 2nd Ref. That requires an extension to Art 50.
Main decision is, what is on the ballot paper.

What is the process for deciding to hold a second referendum?

I presume it would be a parliamentary motion?

Who brings it? Somebody from Labour, presumably? And surely it would have to be accompanied by a simultaneous motion to extend Article 50?

Would it be against Corbyn's wishes?

How many Tories would have to "defect" for such a motion to be approved?

If it's approved, but May or whoever is Prime Minister is personally against it, are they then entirely bound by such a motion/s being passed, ie. would parliament as a whole effectively be "the government", not the government itself?