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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Why is David Davis still invited on to programmes like Question Time? Caroline Lucas was visibly angry when telling him he was playing fast and loose with people's lives. Blithely saying that leaving without a deal will be fine.

This is the man who thinks there is a transition period with no deal. Why on earth does no one call him out on this absolute bullshit? JLR and other companies have said they will have no choice but to leave the UK if there is no deal. Manufacturing will be utterly decimated.

I honestly don't know how someone in the audience didn't go for him. He is despicable, as is the BBC for indulging his dangerous lies.

To the intelligent and informed, Davis is proof that Brexit is madness. To the conditioned and brainwashed, he is a British bulldog sticking it to Johnny Foreigner. To be fair, the BBC must also cater for the useful idiots.

Shelga

Why is David Davis still invited on to programmes like Question Time? Caroline Lucas was visibly angry when telling him he was playing fast and loose with people's lives. Blithely saying that leaving without a deal will be fine.

This is the man who thinks there is a transition period with no deal. Why on earth does no one call him out on this absolute bullshit? JLR and other companies have said they will have no choice but to leave the UK if there is no deal. Manufacturing will be utterly decimated.

I honestly don't know how someone in the audience didn't go for him. He is despicable, as is the BBC for indulging his dangerous lies.

fash

Keatsian wrote: »

But if the UK leaves with no deal because the people voted to leave with no deal? Then it becomes very, very difficult for any London government to return to talks in the short to medium term.

Good point. No where to go if the people say "no deal". No trade agreements possible with anyone if there is never a way back to at least an agreement with the EU.

Laois_Man

bob mcbob wrote: »

The North East region was offered it but rejected it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_North_East_England_devolution_referendum

Ignored by Westminister but happy that way

The comments at the bottom of the page are far more interesting than the call!

Hilarious stuff!

bob mcbob

joe40 wrote: »

In a similar vein, I always found it strange that NI, Scotland and wales have devolved parliments, but not England.

The North East region was offered it but rejected it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_North_East_England_devolution_referendum

Ignored by Westminister but happy that way

Skelet0n

James O'Brien had a great caller from Mayo talking about how important the GFA is.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obriens-caller-brexit-good-friday-agreement/

Powerful stuff, falling on deaf ears in the UK though.

Laois_Man

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UK: "Can we have an extension on A50 to have a referendum?"

EU: "That depends, what'll be on the ballot paper?"

UK: "May's deal or No Deal"

EU: "In that case, no. Yer out on March 29th, bye."

Except the answer to that question would be " "Remain or May's deal or No Deal"

Zubeneschamali

Laois_Man wrote: »

The EU have no say whatsoever in what options the UK puts on its ballot paper! .

UK: "Can we have an extension on A50 to have a referendum?"

EU: "That depends, what'll be on the ballot paper?"

UK: "May's deal or No Deal"

EU: "In that case, no. Yer out on March 29th, bye."

Keatsian

Laois_Man wrote: »

EU states would jump at the chance of keeping the UK in altogether. The EU have no say whatsoever in what options the UK puts on its ballot paper! Without a second referendum, they would likely leave with no deal anyway.

Without a second referendum, they can leave with the deal before them.

Would the EU "jump at the chance" of a possible Remain by taking the risk of lending democratic legitimacy to a no deal Brexit? Very unlikely. If the UK "crashes out" with no deal in March, that's very bad, but at least the UK can return to the negotiating table once they come to their senses.

But if the UK leaves with no deal because the people voted to leave with no deal? Then it becomes very, very difficult for any London government to return to talks in the short to medium term.

10000maniacs

I agree with all the comments about Laura Kuenssburg and quite frankly all of the journalists at the BBC. Whenever a brexiteer appears on ANY BBC programme, very few hard questions are asked and even when they are asked, they are ignored and swept over. See Jo Brands question on Question Time to David Davis last night. Note how quickly Dimbleby moved to another question. There is definitely an agenda at the BBC to bring Brexit of any kind over the line and to give brexiteers a free ride.

Laois_Man

Keatsian wrote: »

That wouldn't be an easy thing to get on the ballot. Any referendum would require either the extension or withdrawal of Article 50, to give the UK time to hold it. A withdrawal is very unlikely - rebel Tories would support a motion of no confidence in the government before they'd countenance allowing May to withdraw Article 50.

That leaves an extension, which the EU would have to grant. The EU would be receptive to facilitating a Remain or Leave-with-May's-deal ballot. But a ballot that included a no deal option, which would see the UK walk away from its financial commitments, leave citizens' rights unresolved, and necessitate a hard border in Ireland? The EU will not be open to that.

EU states would jump at the chance of keeping the UK in altogether. The EU have no say whatsoever in what options the UK puts on its ballot paper! Without a second referendum, they would likely leave with no deal anyway.

Keatsian

Laois_Man wrote: »

From the point of view of those who voted to leave, that is a completely unacceptable choice. Let there be a third option - i.e. WTO Leave. There's a severe danger they might just actually choose it. But they have to be given the choice.

That wouldn't be an easy thing to get on the ballot. Any referendum would require either the extension or withdrawal of Article 50, to give the UK time to hold it. A withdrawal is very unlikely - rebel Tories would support a motion of no confidence in the government before they'd countenance allowing May to withdraw Article 50.

That leaves an extension, which the EU would have to grant. The EU would be receptive to facilitating a Remain or Leave-with-May's-deal ballot. But a ballot that included a no deal option, which would see the UK walk away from its financial commitments, leave citizens' rights unresolved, and necessitate a hard border in Ireland? The EU will not be open to that.

Hermy

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Might watch it with Fiona Bruce on

Do you not think it will get significantly worse with Bruce as host?
To me she's blandness personified.

Imreoir2

Spook_ie wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-how-much-it-will-cost-to-travel-to-the-eu-after-brexit-11580454

So in the event of a crash out Brexit who's going to be the first to collect their 30 pieces of silver the EU( Ireland) or the UK?

EDIT. Actually can ignore that as long as Ireland doesn't sign up to Schengen

You vote to remove free travel and complain when you have to pay to travel. :rolleyes:

Sam Russell

Spook_ie wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-how-much-it-will-cost-to-travel-to-the-eu-after-brexit-11580454

So in the event of a crash out Brexit who's going to be the first to collect their 30 pieces of silver the EU( Ireland) or the UK?

EDIT. Actually can ignore that as long as Ireland doesn't sign up to Schengen

Ireland will not be getting any of it. It is a visa for entry into the Schengen area.

Laois_Man

VinLieger wrote: »

No its not the people who voted leave all voted for something different, many who did might be perfectly happy with May's deal as it is still a brexit.

Let them have the chance express that choice then!
The June 2016 referendum was ridiculous. Everybody who voted was given a binary choice for what is no way, a binary situation.

On the upside, if what May is really doing is actually trying to engineer a second referendum behind it all in the hope of getting a "remain" result as some have theorized, splitting the "Leave" vote in 2 by adding two flavors of leave would nearly guarantee a remain victory!

But then, you can never be too certain what madness the British public will vote for when the next version of the NHS bus is rolled out.

seamus

Enzokk wrote: »

Once again she went to the EU to ask them for help. When they asked her how they can help her she had no answer, but yeah it is the EU that is unhelpful once again.

"What would you like for Xmas, Brexiteers?"

"Surprise us!"

That's what it boils down to for me. They don't know what they want, but there's going to be hell to pay if they don't get it!

Spook_ie

https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-how-much-it-will-cost-to-travel-to-the-eu-after-brexit-11580454

So in the event of a crash out Brexit who's going to be the first to collect their 30 pieces of silver the EU( Ireland) or the UK?

EDIT. Actually can ignore that as long as Ireland doesn't sign up to Schengen

VinLieger

Laois_Man wrote: »

From the point of view of those who voted to leave, that is a completely unacceptable choice.

No its not the people who voted leave all voted for something different, many who did might be perfectly happy with May's deal as it is still a brexit.

Laois_Man

J Mysterio wrote: »

* Second referendum: May Brexit or Revoke article 5

From the point of view of those who voted to leave, that is a completely unacceptable choice. Let there be a third option - i.e. WTO Leave. There's a severe danger they might just actually choose it. But they have to be given the choice.

VinLieger

I had quite a lot of respect for the BBC up until the last two years. Their "reporting" on brexit and constant need for "balance" regardless of the facts of a situation is just headache inducing. They are so afraid of offending either side just to save their own skins that they are just doing more damage.

Much like the tories and labour the BBC is more concerned with protecting itself than the country

boggerman1

Apparently when may was asked by leaders what the UK wanted all she could da was"brexit means brexit".sure how can u talk to a robot spouting such stuff.let em crash out.its the only solution unfortunately

CrabRevolution

The tweet seems to be based on a predetermined notion that the EU is for some reason naturally and objectively obliged to concede to the UKs demands.

It's the same delusion that has led them to this mess.

Leroy42

On Laura reporting. Unhelpful seems very much like her opinion. Unhelpful to whom? Unhelpful how?

She is there to report the happens, to report the facts. Not paint the picture that the PM whats to hear. There is no doubt that Laura is more concerned with the bubble of Westminster and the 'soap opera' of politics that actually presenting the facts.

Why not simply state what happened. TM asked for help, was given the floor to describe what she needed but instead of pointing it out went into the usual slogans of working together, partnership. They get it, they understand. What is it that you want.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not very impressed with Kuenssburgs reporting:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073355430884241409

Not surprised as she probably feels sympathy with the PM.

prinzeugen wrote: »

Not what you wanted to read? Two sides to a story. I am convinced it will end up in a no deal.

And it is the EU commission to blame not the UK.

Once again she went to the EU to ask them for help. When they asked her how they can help her she had no answer, but yeah it is the EU that is unhelpful once again. The quicker people realise there is no magical solution no matter how nice they ask or how many times it would get us quicker to a deal, but Theresa May still thinks she can get a magical deal and keep everyone happy.

This is not a message problem, it is a not listening or understanding problem from the UK.

Seth Brundle

prinzeugen wrote: »

Not what you wanted to read? Two sides to a story. I am convinced it will end up in a no deal.

And it is the EU commission to blame not the UK.

Foolish statement!
Has the EU forced the UK to stumble around drunk whilst saying meaningless soundbites or forced them into a position of not knowing what they actually want?
The British government wanted this but hadn't thought about the specifics of what they wanted or the effects from it.

You reap what you sow!

Zubeneschamali

prinzeugen wrote: »

I am convinced it will end up in a no deal.

And it is the EU commission to blame not the UK.

The UK is leaving - no-one in the EU has to pretend to care who the UK gutter press blame for stuff anymore. The EU want this done so they can focus on more important issues.

fash

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The EU did not force the UK to adopt its red lines. A much better deal could have been reached if not for the red lines the UK set out at the start. It may well end up in a no deal, but the fault is the UK's from start to finish. Brexit is a UK decision, and chosing to allow a no-deal Brexit is also a UK decision. No one is forcing them to do this to themselves.

Mr Prinz is a Brexiter: everything is the EU's fault and he is always the victim. Facts and reality don't matter-only feelings - but only his.

Imreoir2

prinzeugen wrote: »

Not what you wanted to read? Two sides to a story. I am convinced it will end up in a no deal.

And it is the EU commission to blame not the UK.

The EU did not force the UK to adopt its red lines. A much better deal could have been reached if not for the red lines the UK set out at the start. It may well end up in a no deal, but the fault is the UK's from start to finish. Brexit is a UK decision, and chosing to allow a no-deal Brexit is also a UK decision. No one is forcing them to do this to themselves.

Peregrinus

What the Kuenssberg tween doesn't mention is that the reason May is given "little hope of anything she can offer to backbenchers at home" is because, when asked what she needed, she was unable to answer. She's not getting because she didn't ask. She didn't ask, I'm guessing, because she was unable to think of anything that she could plausibly hope to get that would, in fact, solve her domestic problem.

OK, it's a tweet; you can only get so much into a tweet. Still, other journalists are managing to tweet about this.

It's clear how this looks from the EU side; as they see it, May thinks it's her job to tell them about her problem, and their job to devise and deliver a solution to her problem. Hence their frosty response.

As for the EU commission being to blame, that's absurd. This problem is entirely of May's making, the consequence of errors which were in no way forced upon her by the EU. Despite having already adopted the objective of avoiding a hard border in Ireland, and knowing that that was also an objective of the EU's, May chose in her Lancaster House speech, six months after the referendum, to target a hard brexit, ruling out all of the mechanisms which, currently, keep the border open. Then, again in no way forced by the EU, she chose to call a general election, thereby losing her majority and making herself dependent on the DUP, which creates barriers to making any special terms for NI which could help to keep the border open, while allowing her to pursue the hard brexit she wants for the bulk of the UK. May's difficulty now in honouring the commitment she gave last December, and repeated last March, is entirely the result of obstacles that she choose to place in her own way. There is no way the EU Commission can be blamed for May's choices.