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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prinzeugen

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not very impressed with Kuenssburgs reporting:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073355430884241409

Not what you wanted to read? Two sides to a story. I am convinced it will end up in a no deal.

And it is the EU commission to blame not the UK.

J Mysterio

Not very impressed with Kuenssburgs reporting:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073355430884241409

Infini

Folkstonian wrote: »

She delayed her meaningful vote to gain some concessions from the EU.

It was literally the only reason she did it.

That she has hit a brick wall despite her apparent confidence when explaining her U-turn on the vote in Parliament, cannot be anything other than disastrous.

She’s well beyond the ‘bloody difficult woman’ stage. She looks hobbled and hopeless.

She's run out of road at this stage. They got 3 choices so make one is the honest responce she's going to get. Remaining either through an A50 withdrawal or a 2nd referendum would end this with the least damage and probably an unwritten rule of "Never Speak of this again" sort of thing.

Otherwise it's either you take the agreement that's on the table and accept that's what you get or you crash out with no deal, ruin your country and cause it's possible breakup as well. If thing's go bad in NI economically at least and enough support builds up I could see a border poll happening or even being a part of any new EU agreement with the State of Little England.

At this point the EU need to take the glove's off and basically hammer home the same point over and over till it finally sink's in with the Brits: Thats the deal take it or leave it, theres no further negotiations at this point. It probably would not hurt to make the point that if they crash out hard any future agreements will be even harsher than what you got now expecially by damaging Ireland as well.

J Mysterio

Whats clear to me at this point is that if there is to be a Brexit, it will be the deal currently on the table.

Whats also clear is that the EU have decided to stop doing little merry dances to comfort May so she can go home with a bone to show in Parliament. It's reality time and the fun and games are over. No one has any more time or patience for the nonsense.

Options as I see them, in order of preference:

* Ratify the deal, work on future relationship
* Second referendum: May Brexit or Revoke article 50
* Revoke article 50
* General Election, Article 50 extension
* No deal Brexit (disaster)

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

She delayed her meaningful vote to gain some concessions from the EU.

No. She delayed the meaningful vote because she was going to lose it badly.

She only then decided, under duress, that she would go to Brussels to seek assurances that the backstop is temporary.

But why does she need to go to Brussels for this? It says it in the withdrawal agreement which agreed between the UK/ EU negotiators: it is an insurance mechamism for if the future relationship negotiations fail to avoid a hard border. And even then it only applies untill another solution is found. So it is inherently temporary and imperminant.

The ERG should be placated by that given how they said the 'alternative' (magic) solutions are easy. They can spend all the time they like thinking about it as the future relationship is negotiated.

Honestly, I wonder why the backstop has become such a focus of the hysteria - there are so many other aspects which it would seem would be more offensive to Brexiteers. DUP influence perhaps.

Imreoir2

Folkstonian wrote: »

She delayed her meaningful vote to gain some concessions from the EU.

It was literally the only reason she did it.

That she has hit a brick wall despite her apparent confidence when explaining her U-turn on the vote in Parliament, cannot be anything other than disastrous.

She’s well beyond the ‘bloody difficult woman’ stage. She looks hobbled and hopeless.

I don't think she is niave enough to expect any significant concession from the EU. She delayed the vote because she could not win it, not because she thought there were any concessions to be won. It's not good enough for her and her ministers to say there are no concessions available, and that the renegioatiation backbenchers are calling for won't work. She has to prove the point, ask for concessions and be seen to fail. If nothing else, that will at least take some of the wind out of the sails of those who are currently insisting on a renegiotiation.

In January, while the deal won't have changed, the context will, at least somewhat. The cliff edge is closer, there is less time for a renegioatiation and an atempt at renegiotiation will be seen to have already failed. This may or may not change the result of the vote, but it is a better strategy than having the deal voted down by a huge margin already.

Folkstonian

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't think concessions are in the cards one way or another. The deal is what it is. It's a matter of optics at this stage and I think that warm words and platitudes from the EU are probably not as helpful to May domesticly as the chance to play the bloody dificult woman again.

She delayed her meaningful vote to gain some concessions from the EU.

It was literally the only reason she did it.

That she has hit a brick wall despite her apparent confidence when explaining her U-turn on the vote in Parliament, cannot be anything other than disastrous.

She’s well beyond the ‘bloody difficult woman’ stage. She looks hobbled and hopeless.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

This tactic would only work if she actually gets concessions and I cannot remember her getting anything from Salzburg, hence parliament hoping to vote against her deal.

A penny for the thoughts of those MPs that were hesitating on voting for or against her but decided to give her a chance. Another meeting with other EU leaders and another humiliation for her and the UK.

I don't think concessions are in the cards one way or another. The deal is what it is. It's a matter of optics at this stage and I think that warm words and platitudes from the EU are probably not as helpful to May domesticly as the chance to play the bloody dificult woman again.

Enzokk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The cynic in me thinks the supposed slapdown by the EU was the desired outcome. The media keeps talking about the EU giving May support and a "lifeline". If anything May is strongest when perceived as being attacked by the EU. The chance to play the wronged party in the aftermath of Slazberg was probably her best moment in the last six months. The reality is that the deal won't be changing. Within the confines of that reality, EU support is not going to get her anywhere domestically. Being allowed to look like she is standing up to/being attacked by the EU on insubstantial things like the tone of meetings and the wording of statements will probably do more to shore up her image at home than any warm words of reasurances the EU could provide.

This tactic would only work if she actually gets concessions and I cannot remember her getting anything from Salzburg, hence parliament hoping to vote against her deal.

A penny for the thoughts of those MPs that were hesitating on voting for or against her but decided to give her a chance. Another meeting with other EU leaders and another humiliation for her and the UK.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

Imagine having even more politicians that needs to have their expenses covered by the taxpayer.

As others have posted it seem like it didn't go well for May.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1073364321370038273

The cynic in me thinks the supposed slapdown by the EU was the desired outcome. The media keeps talking about the EU giving May support and a "lifeline". If anything May is strongest when perceived as being attacked by the EU. The chance to play the wronged party in the aftermath of Slazberg was probably her best moment in the last six months. The reality is that the deal won't be changing. Within the confines of that reality, EU support is not going to get her anywhere domestically. Being allowed to look like she is standing up to/being attacked by the EU on insubstantial things like the tone of meetings and the wording of statements will probably do more to shore up her image at home than any warm words of reasurances the EU could provide.

Enzokk

joe40 wrote: »

In a similar vein, I always found it strange that NI, Scotland and wales have devolved parliments, but not England.

Imagine having even more politicians that needs to have their expenses covered by the taxpayer.

As others have posted it seem like it didn't go well for May.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1073364321370038273

Tell me how

Dimbleby actually going out strong tonight.

tuxy

Headshot wrote: »

Question Time has been a good watch.

****ing love if someone would ask why does May pander to the ERG where it's only makes up 10% of the Conservatives. They caused this mess and reaping the rewards from it

In what way is she pandering more to the ERG than the rest of her party that voted no confidence in her?
If only 10% are ERG and it was 36% who voted no confidence.
That's a massive number considering she has also lost the support of the DUP.

For Forks Sake

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good Brexity line up on Question Time. Dimbelby's last show. Who is replacing him? Be good to see a rolling chair like Have I Got News For You

Politically astute, previous television experience?
Time for the return of the right honourable tub of lard.

latest?cb=20140807213501

FrancieBrady

Tell me how wrote: »

Interesting how David Dimbleby didn't push Davis to answer Jo Brands question as to why he said Brexit would be so easy.

I thought the exact same thing. That is why QT is just soundbyte entertainment and not really a serious political discussion. Nobody ever gets questioned properly.

Tell me how

Interesting how David Dimbleby didn't push Davis to answer Jo Brands question as to why he said Brexit would be so easy.

I'd love someone to ask why aren't they listening to the EU and what they are saying repeatedly.

Suggestion if 2nd referendum gets big cheer. (Show tonight is being held in London of course)

Headshot

Question Time has been a good watch.

****ing love if someone would ask why does May pander to the ERG where it's only makes up 10% of the Conservatives. They caused this mess and reaping the rewards from it

Headshot

I burst my hole at that idiot in the audience with the glasses in question time

what an idiot

Mr.Nice Guy

Very interesting thread here from Peter Foster:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073355214340743168

This bit in relation to Ireland:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073357332485148673

Frustration with her position:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073358059131551750

Expect plenty of Brexiteer fury tomorrow by the looks of this.

devnull

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1073355642541355008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1073355642541355008&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Ftheresa-may-heads-to-brussels-for-brexit-talks-after-surviving-confidence-vote-11579370
Pretty much saying what we all know and seems a dig at Duncan-Smith's comments this morning.

judeboy101

Water John wrote: »

TM gets nothing from the EU.

She got some more frequent flier miles and a bit of lunch, so that's something.

Water John

TM gets nothing from the EU.

A Dub in Glasgo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good Brexity line up on Question Time. Dimbelby's last show. Who is replacing him? Be good to see a rolling chair like Have I Got News For You

Have given up on QT over the last 3-4 years. Might watch it with Fiona Bruce on

1005713h-fiona-bruce-trainers-trans-Nv-BQz-QNjv4-Bq-P794i8zub1-Kbj-Vu-J.jpg

Mr.Nice Guy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good Brexity line up on Question Time. Dimbelby's last show. Who is replacing him? Be good to see a rolling chair like Have I Got News For You

Fiona Bruce will be taking over.

I expect David Davis to bluff his way through tonight's programme to rapturous applause.

FrancieBrady

Good Brexity line up on Question Time. Dimbelby's last show. Who is replacing him? Be good to see a rolling chair like Have I Got News For You

judeboy101

Inquitus wrote: »

A date that can only be met with agreement on the new relationship else there is a backstop........

That's what they have at the moment with transition period, surely. This sounds like " if the EU is so serious about negotiating a deal then we dare you to dare the backstop to sort one out in x time, you agree, we get deal, you try to string it out, we leave"

Inquitus

judeboy101 wrote: »

TM proposes start date for new relationship to get around backstop.

A date that can only be met with agreement on the new relationship else there is a backstop........

judeboy101

TM proposes start date for new relationship to get around backstop.

Tell me how

Nody wrote: »

Your first mistake was to think the UK government a) has a clue what they are talking about b) are telling you the truth and c) has any plan to actually make it so.

https://twitter.com/Caroline_Stocks/status/1073130160885587968

strandroad

Folkstonian wrote: »

In my own experience, there aren’t many people who see Brexit as an opportunity for Britain to reassert itself as a global power on the level of China or the United States.

Anyone who says that UK can negotiate with the EU like equals, or counts on automatic great deals with US or China is in fact expressing this belief. UK has a fraction of their power after all.