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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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ancapailldorcha

My opinion on how things have gone?

To be honest, I just sort of assumed that I would vote Remain. Then I saw that The Economist had a special report on the subject called "The Reluctant European". I picked it up. It did an excellent job of providing a brief overview of Britain's involvement in the European project including the rebate and the veto, Cameron's decision to withdraw the Conservatives from the European People's Party in a bid to placate the Eurosceptics in his party and what would happen if Britain chose to leave. Most importantly, it dismantled every single leave argument including sovereignty and immigration. It mentioned that the EU member states would each have to ratify the EU-UK trade deal, a fact rarely mentioned at the time.

I was living in very liberal/left-wing Brighton at the time, a better exemplar of the loony lefty elitist caricature you could not possibly find in the UK. I wasn't too worried. Like many, I thought that Remain would claim the day if only narrowly. On Friday the 24th June, there was a horrible shadow over the medical school I was working in at the time. Most of the staff were from Europe, namely Portugal, Spain & Italy. Few, if any got much work done. It took some time for the shock to kick in. That was it. The UK had voted to leave and somehow, nobody was too bothered about the fact that the NHS wasn't getting $350 million a week extra.

However, and it was extremely naive of me in hindsight, I did expect politicians to... "Grow up", for want of a better phrase. I mean, this is the future of the country for crying out loud. Instead, Cameron resigned on the spot rather than try to sort out the mess he'd made while the Tories turned on each other. Labour decided to just keep calm and carry on with very little. Since then, we've seen judges which Brexiteers have told us must be able to enforce the law of the land derided as traitors along with democratically elected MP's. Parliament itself, which is supposed to be sovereign became a target for vitriol. Suddenly, the Good Friday agreement, something barely mentioned at all before the referendum had become an inconvenience. Jacob Rees-Mogg became an envoy of the working man. The party of big business and stability became the party of economic ruin and chaos while Jeremy Corbyn did and still does continue to fiddle. Up became down and black became white.

I knew it'd be a tough few years but I didn't count on so much farce being prevalent in actual Politics that Armando Iannucci would feel surplus to requirements. And what does it look like we'll be left with? Either giving up as opposed to the status quo of pooling sovereignty in order to avoid economic ruin or said economic ruin. And for what? Bananas which are now bendy? More powerful vacuum cleaners? Blue Passports? Spam for dinner? PM Boris Johnson whose new populist Tory party might win power on little over a third of the popular vote?

If British politics was an animal, I'd argue for it to be euthanised. Ironically, it's the undemocratic elements of it which seem to be holding the vaunted democracy somewhat together. The House of Lords seems to doing some decent work in holding the government to account while the civil service, based on a contact of mine in Liam Fox's department seems to be well ahead in preparations for disaster though the easiest trade deal in history is some ways off. Meanwhile, we have a load of Tory rebels who were unhappy with Theresa May's election so they agitated for a second vote.

I don't know any more. Maybe someone here will figure out a way to package and sell irony because that seems to be the only growth industry here at the moment.

DOCARCH

Tell me how wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1073135950992195585

Great reply on Twitter to that...

Captain of the Titanic: "it’s time for the iceberg to get serious about avoiding a collision”.

:P

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

More can kicking by May today:

I don’t expect an immediate breakthrough, but what I do hope is that we can start to work as quickly as possible on the assurances that are necessary.

What work? What part of "It has been agreed and won't be renegotiated" do you not understand? Of course, she understands but is just playing party politics with international diplomacy and international agreements and treaties.

I think she needs it in slogan form: 'we can't return to the borders of the past'.

Tell me how

I have a friend working in a company near Bristol. The company makes parts for various car manufacturers including BMW, Toyota, Peugeot, etc. She mentioned to me before that there was little to zero conversation amongst workers about Brexit.
Her and I are in a group chat and last night we were discussing Brexit with others.

She just sent me a message that she had shown the chat to a colleague because she asked them what they thought of May yesterday and they shrugged and said they didn't really pay attention.

When the colleague saw the chat a group of people (most in Ireland) were having about Brexit, he said, "you people need to get a life".

Thatnastyboy

Tell me how wrote: »

I have a friend working in a company near Bristol. The company makes parts for various car manufacturers including BMW, Toyota, Peugeot, etc. She mentioned to me before that there was little to zero conversation amongst workers about Brexit.
Her and I are in a group chat and last night we were discussing Brexit with others.

She just sent me a message that she had shown the chat to a colleague because she asked them what they thought of May yesterday and they shrugged and said they didn't really pay attention.

When the colleague saw the chat a group of people (most in Ireland) were having about Brexit, he said, "you people need to get a life".

It's alright - the way it's looking now they'll have plenty time to read up on it after the fact.

seamus

Tell me how wrote: »

When the colleague saw the chat a group of people (most in Ireland) were having about Brexit, he said, "you people need to get a life".

To be fair to them, it's hard to see why your ship is sinking when you're standing on the deck.
I'm in an open Slack channel with mostly British people, smart British people, and they don't really understand what's happening themselves. There's very much a, "I can hear what's being said, Brexit is going to hurt, but I don't really know what it is that we can do about it".

Britain has had the privilege in recent history of being able to "soldier on". "No matter what happens, we will soldier on, and in the end, we will be fine". "Keep calm and carry on".

And that's proven true. Through wars and recessions, and more wars and recessions, Britain put the head down, worked through it and came out the other side, usually as one of the strongest economies. So I think culturally the same attitude is prevailing, that a rough ride is ahead, but Britain will put the head down and when the dust settles, Britain will be stronger.

But they can't see that this is different. This is not a global problem. This is not a collective issue that every country is going to have to work through. It's barely even a regional issue. Britain, and Britain alone is going to feel the full weight of this, and putting the head down and pushing through is the worst strategy.

joe40

There are only 3 options, Cancel Brexit, No deal Brexit, or WA exit.

Brexit will only be cancelled as a result of another referendum, which in my mind would be perfectly democratic since things have changed so much since 2016 and I was hoping for that outcome.

I'm now coming round to the idea that the best outcome in the long run for all concerned would be for Britain to exit the EU with the current WA (maybe some tweaks or fudges)

Even if a new referendum were to vote remain Britain's continued existence in the EU would be toxic. Even a labour government would not be able to heal wounds with the EU because of the abysmal attitude of their leadership throughout this.

The Marriage has failed, an amicable divorce might be the best outcome.

Enzokk

This should be a warning to the UK on the upcoming non-negotiations about the WA.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1073232373939097601

It sure doesn't seem like the EU will back down and throw us to the wolves, or at least if they do you can be sure that the border issue will be sorted quickly when the love for the EU will turn sour very quickly here.

Laois_Man

Varadkar interview on Sky News:

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1073228261109452800

And a second bit about the 2030 World Cup bid

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1073229338563219458

Pushing the case for extending article 50!

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They've already said that anyway. The truth of the matter is that Mogg, Johnson, Davis etc. are using the backstop issue to bring the deal down. They actually don't give a crap about NI. If the backstop was removed, they would focus on some other weakness in the agreement. There is no placating the ERG with anything other than Crash Out or Canada+.

The UK, instead of badgering the EU to change their position, could be using this time to flesh out their plans for a 'frictionless border' with NI and prove that the backstop won't be needed. The only reason the backstop is even a thing is because the UK insists they can sort out a frictionless border and the EU are saying 'Yeah, we don't believe you, but if you insist we'll let you try. If you can't make it work, you must agree to our way to comply with the GFA as a fall back plan B"

May could get the votes she needs by announcing something like the following

"The backstop exists as an insurance policy, but I have commissioned tech genius company x to develop a wireless, paperless, cameraless frictionless way of tracking the 110 million border crossings a year between the ROI and NI"

This genius tech guy assures me that he'll have a system up and working and ready to roll out by the end of the transition period in January 2021 and (and it will cost peanuts)"

Nobody will actually believe her, but they might be able to 'accept her assurances' for the purposes of passing the deal. May is going to be gone before the next election so afterwards, they'll be able to blame the backstop on her and whoever the new leader is can say s/he never agreed to her plan but now his hands are tied.

Leroy42

That is a possible solution, except for the fact that the backstop is just the top line of the issues.

They don't want oversight by ECJ, they don't want to pay the €39bn, they don't want to continue to pay, they don't want to continue to follow the rules, they want fishing sorted on 29th.

So even, even if it was possible for something to be done on the backstop, they will simply move onto the next area.

The backstop was agreed a year ago, and yet the UK parliament is still arguing about it!

10000maniacs

Tell me how wrote: »

Wouldn't you love to have the self-belief/self-confidence of a politician?

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1073135950992195585

"Its time for the icebergs to get serious about avoiding a collision." That was a spot on comment in the feed.

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

The backstop was agreed a year ago, and yet the UK parliament is still arguing about it!

To be fair, parliament themselves did not agree to the backstop. Appointed UK negotiators did. Therefore, parliament feel it's within their rights to complain since they're the ones who have vote such an agreement into law per the meaningful vote clause.

Professor Moriarty

Headline from The Telegraph website:

Irish Premier suggests MPs could simply cancel Brexit

Liars.

Imreoir2

DOCARCH wrote: »

Great reply on Twitter to that...

Captain of the Titanic: "it’s time for the iceberg to get serious about avoiding a collision”.

:P

Former leader of the Conservatives cominig out with an equlouent "I know you are but what am I" style argument to defend his stance on the biggest issue to face his country since the second world war.

DOCARCH

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Former leader of the Conservatives cominig out with an equlouent "I know you are but what am I" style argument to defend his stance on the biggest issue to face his country since the second world war.

More like the superior Tory attitude....'Don't you know who we are? We are GREAT Britain'!

Huge issues of misguided self-importance.

'Fog in Channel....Continent Cut Off'.

CelticRambler

Tell me how wrote: »

I do have a small, sneaky feeling in the back of my mind that at some point in the future, we in Ireland will be in a situation where we are being told we are expected to pay for the support which Ireland was given by Europe at this time.

As Seamus says:

seamus wrote: »

Arguably the EU is repaying us right now for saving the union's banking system.

For several decades, the Irish have shown themselves to be good Europeans. We played the Celtic Tiger game and lost, and with an ironically British sense of fair play, took a hit for the German banks and the EU. (I personally believe that the Irish were, collectively, a bunch of feckin eejits and the German banks didn't deserve anything like the amount of blame that was attributed to them, but that's beside the point) The support of our fellow Europeans in the face of Brexit is our reward for being "a great bunch of lads".

Where we'll be held to account will be later on - probably at the time of a reunification of Ireland. That's when the spectre of Corporation Tax and/or Digital Tax and/or Financial Transaction Tax will bite. There'll be a package of Reunification Aid on the table, but a bunch of strings hanging out of it and (no doubt) someone saying "you did really well out of Brexit, getting all those fintech companies, didn't you ...?"

My perspective on where we are is: very close to the dissolution of the United Kingdom. For all the reasons given in the posts above, there is no simple Brexit that can be acceptable to a majority of the UK electorate, with NI and Scotland being the most vociferous agitators. The DUP has boxed Theresa May into a "hard Brexit" corner, and the Scots have boxed her into a "unilateral revocation of A50" corner. It can only be a question of time before the English nationalists' frustration at taking back control turns to real resentment of their Celtic cousins' role in Westminster.

I think the DUP will be given the boot very soon after Brexit (and probably have their £1bn bribe cancelled), and after a few years of BRINO sluggishness, Scotland will be "encouraged" to have another referendum, to allow the English to follow the True Brexit Path to Greatness. In both cases, NI (reunited) and Scotland will rejoin the EU as willing members before the English have resolved their own identity crisis.

DOCARCH

CelticRambler wrote: »

....very close to the dissolution of the United Kingdom....

This question went through my head yesterday....

Why don't England leave the United Kingdom?

I'd agree with CelticRambler suggestion that the UK is likely to dissolve sooner or later!

Akrasia

DOCARCH wrote: »

This question went through my head yesterday....

Why don't England leave the United Kingdom?

I'd agree with CelticRambler suggestion that the UK is likely to dissolve sooner or later!

They want to keep access to the goldmine that is the Scottish fishing industry

Laois_Man

CelticRambler wrote: »

Where we'll be held to account will be later on - probably at the time of a reunification of Ireland. That's when the spectre of Corporation Tax and/or Digital Tax and/or Financial Transaction Tax will bite. There'll be a package of Reunification Aid on the table, but a bunch of strings hanging out of it

IMO, a reunification referendum would struggle to pass in the republic as it is - it might have some chance though if the EU outlined assistance before such a referendum. Us being asked to give up or taxation solvency as a price for it would give it no chance whatsoever.

flatty

Laois_Man wrote: »

IMO, a reunification referendum would struggle to pass in the republic as it is - it might have some chance though if the EU outlined assistance before such a referendum. Us being asked to give up or taxation solvency as a price for it would give it no chance whatsoever.

And there we have it. September 1913.
I can't abide brexit, brexiteers or the tories, but some of the hypocrisy on these threads is nauseating. "we will only unify if we get money to do so" "the eu will give us money to help us if there's a hard brexit"
We, as a nation, have found it very easy to be good Europeans, as they've thrown money at us hand over fist, and then bailed us out when we nearly, through our own greed, crashed the European banking system. We have constantly been devious, the gombeen man of the eu, tugging the forelock, the best boys in the class, whilst facilitating wholesale widespread tax avoidance. Anyone remember the "double Irish"?, or read about the further 43billion and counting of corporation tax non payment that we continue to facilitate?
Some on here need to realise that we are in no position to spout superiority about what a great bunch of Europeans we are. It's not only a bit hypocritical, it's also much easier to be pro EU when we have been massive net beneficiaries both financially and in terms of trade. We are hugely wealthy compared to swathes of the EU.
We should welcome the North back, and not expect to be paid to do so.
Does paddy always have to put a price on every single thing??

briany

DOCARCH wrote: »

This question went through my head yesterday....

Why don't England leave the United Kingdom?

I'd agree with CelticRambler suggestion that the UK is likely to dissolve sooner or later!

The whole point for England is to rule a union, not be ruled by one. They want to be the most important thing in any union in which they participate, which is why they'll attempt to walk the mental tightrope of arguing against one union while arguing for another.

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

The whole point for England is to rule a union, not be ruled by one. They want to be the most important thing in any union in which they participate, which is why they'll attempt to walk the mental tightrope of arguing against one union while arguing for another.

Fintan O'Toole makes this very point in his new Brexit book. In the English Brexiteers' eyes, the country can only be at the head of something (just as it has always been) or the hideous alternative of being subjugated by a "foreign power". There is no halfway house for them of being a 'partnership of equals' or any of that malarkey.

An Claidheamh

Wow, really good article.

Pretty much my reading of the whole cause of Brexit anyway.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-small-boring-and-stupid-theresa-may-eu-withdrawal-deal/

Excellent

The comments below it only prove the man's point.

joe40

briany wrote: »

DOCARCH wrote: »

This question went through my head yesterday....

Why don't England leave the United Kingdom?

I'd agree with CelticRambler suggestion that the UK is likely to dissolve sooner or later!

The whole point for England is to rule a union, not be ruled by one. They want to be the most important thing in any union in which they participate, which is why they'll attempt to walk the mental tightrope of arguing against one union while arguing for another.

In a similar vein, I always found it strange that NI, Scotland and wales have devolved parliments, but not England.

DOCARCH

joe40 wrote: »

In a similar vein, I always found it strange that NI, Scotland and wales have devolved parliments, but not England.

They are looking for that, an English parliament. It just has been on the back burner since Brexit.

Folkstonian

briany wrote: »

The whole point for England is to rule a union, not be ruled by one. They want to be the most important thing in any union in which they participate, which is why they'll attempt to walk the mental tightrope of arguing against one union while arguing for another.

I don’t think this is the most accurate appraisal of the current English mindset.

Only anecdotal of course, but from my experiences or casual conversation with friends and colleagues from back home, if England were to be given an ‘independence’ referendum of its own, the result would be really quite different to the Scottish vote.

English people don’t generally cut around in life like it’s one giant game of Risk anymore. That’s if they ever did. I can’t comment for those before my time!

awec

joe40 wrote: »

In a similar vein, I always found it strange that NI, Scotland and wales have devolved parliments, but not England.

Since ~2015 English MPs can veto bills on English issues.

They can't however (as far as I remember), pass their own bills without an overall majority. I think by coincidence they could until the most recent election, when the parliamentary arithmetic changed significantly (Tories have more Scottish MPs and fewer English).

Folkstonian

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Wow, really good article.

Pretty much my reading of the whole cause of Brexit anyway.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-small-boring-and-stupid-theresa-may-eu-withdrawal-deal/

Excellent

The comments below it only prove the man's point.

Looking past his quite liberal use of some quite nasty language, what parts do you most strongly agree with?

In my own experience, there aren’t many people who see Brexit as an opportunity for Britain to reassert itself as a global power on the level of China or the United States.

People are generally more focused on issues such as migration, lawmaking and democratic accountability.

I’m happy to debate all day long whether there is much substance to their concerns, but I don’t think it’s fair to dismiss the things people are actually saying in order to accuse them of channeling the spirits of James Cook and Cecil Rhodes.

Laois_Man

flatty wrote: »

And there we have it. September 1913.
I can't abide brexit, brexiteers or the tories, but some of the hypocrisy on these threads is nauseating. "we will only unify if we get money to do so" "the eu will give us money to help us if there's a hard brexit"
We, as a nation, have found it very easy to be good Europeans, as they've thrown money at us hand over fist, and then bailed us out when we nearly, through our own greed, crashed the European banking system. We have constantly been devious, the gombeen man of the eu, tugging the forelock, the best boys in the class, whilst facilitating wholesale widespread tax avoidance. Anyone remember the "double Irish"?, or read about the further 43billion and counting of corporation tax non payment that we continue to facilitate?
Some on here need to realise that we are in no position to spout superiority about what a great bunch of Europeans we are. It's not only a bit hypocritical, it's also much easier to be pro EU when we have been massive net beneficiaries both financially and in terms of trade. We are hugely wealthy compared to swathes of the EU.
We should welcome the North back, and not expect to be paid to do so.
Does paddy always have to put a price on every single thing??

Saying a unification referendum wouldn't pass is a opinion of what a result would be - not an opinion not an opinion on what the result should be. Hypocrisy ?? It's what an opinion forum is for - yanno....opinions on what will likely happen! Anyway, there's no way Ireland could have taken down the European banking system on its own and none of that or the rest belongs in a Brexit thread anyway so it's not appropriate to get into the whole Apple Tax case here, which is still unresolved in any case. 2018 is the third year in a row that Ireland will be net contributors to the EU coffers and that doesn't count the billions made over the years in our fishing waters by other European countries....and nobody that I have seen is advocating 'Irexit' because of any of it.