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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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rockatansky

Leroy42 wrote: »

She has lied to the DUP,

And for this I wholeheartedly applaud her. She no doubt recognises the DUP for what they really are.

briany

bilston wrote: »

I wonder what Brexiteers will say if it's tight and for example 52% of MPs support the PM and 48% oppose her...?

Something hypocritical, no doubt.

hill16bhoy

Could May's apparent grovelling behind closed doors in order to stay in power be an indication that the vote may not be the plain sailing expected?

Here's something to keep in mind.

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1072853959784755201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072853959784755201&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2018%2Fdec%2F12%2Ftory-mps-trigger-vote-of-no-confidence-in-may-amid-brexit-uncertainty-politics-live

devnull

bilston wrote: »

I wonder what Brexiteers will say if it's tight and for example 52% of MPs support the PM and 48% oppose her...?

They will say it's not a mandate, despite saying it is for Brexit.

They've called for another election, because they didn't like the result of the last one and called for another leadership election, as they don't like the person they voted in last time and say that it's not undemocratic.

But if someone asks for another referendum it's not allowed because it betrays any kind of democracy by asking people the same question again, which is laughable really, but shows you what you're dealing with.

You see this with the way they talk about the EU, and talk about other deals they have made even though they're just proposals. It's all staggering arrogance from people who are used to getting their own way.

Look at it from outside the Brexit bubble, you've got a bunch of very very rich people who have spent their whole life getting their own way due to their wealth and have become arrogant self obsessed Tories. If they want something they get it, if someone else wants something similar, they don't.

The likes of Jacob Rees Mogg wants to cut taxes for the rich whilst increasing them for a poor with a single tax band - he couldn't give a damn about your average man on the street, integrity, compassion and caring for the man down the street and empathy are things he'll never have and it's the likes of him that symbolise everything I hate about the Tory party. He doesn't care about rules, ethics or honesty or consistency. He just cares about himself.

Water John

Historian on Sky thinks it might be close. Whilst Sky have run the list of who has said they will support her, many experts, incl a former whip telling them that MPs are great liars.

devnull

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Something to keep in mind.

Could May's apparent grovelling behind closed doors in order to stay in power be an indication that the vote may not be the plain sailing expected?

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1072853959784755201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072853959784755201&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2018%2Fdec%2F12%2Ftory-mps-trigger-vote-of-no-confidence-in-may-amid-brexit-uncertainty-politics-live

I said that earlier - I wouldn't put anything past these tories.

They're a bunch of back-stabbing, disloyal, unethical and hypocritical rich boys and girls. They'll do anything to look after themselves, honesty is not one of their strong points and if they need to lie about who their supporting to save their career they'll do that.

Kermit.de.frog

She'll win comfortably in my opinion.

There is no other credible way forward, no credible potential leadership options.

When push comes to shove pragmatism wins out...

seamus

Tell me how wrote: »

I actually think he is at least damaging if not outright sacrificing his own Taoiseach aspirations in supporting the C&S over the period which they have done.

Still, I'm personally glad we have a collective government who recognizes the need for a steady ship at the moment.

This is a bit like Kevin Sheedy's goal against the English.

Who would have thought that the Dáil would be the mature parliament, putting the country ahead of party politics, while the UK parliament walks around with it's pants around it's ankles, smelling of booze and vomit all over its shirt?

This should be the last nail coffin for any lingering inferiority complex we have regarding the British.

Hurrache

Water John wrote: »

incl a former whip telling them that MPs are great liars.

Often qualified today as being especially applicable to the Torys.

devnull

MP has now spoke to Sky News confirming that he believes that his fellow MPs are liars and actually not supporting TM despite saying so publicly.

https://twitter.com/MelHand_Teacher/status/1072935610241949698

(saw it myself but showing a tweet from public to add credibility)

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

She'll win comfortably in my opinion.

There is no other credible way forward, no credible potential leadership options.

When push comes to shove pragmatism wins out...

I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

Captain Obvious

Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

Itssoeasy

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

Nope it's a private vote within the Conservative party. What others are saying is that just because many Conservative MPs said on twitter or otherwise doesn't bind them when they are voting privately.

bilston

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

Yeah let's all play that game...although I think it's 317 not 318 Tory MPs.

242-75 to May

devnull

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

Secret Ballot - so you can see why people will say publicly they are backing TM but vote against her.

There was a leadership election with Thatcher and also Ian Duncan-Smith in the past where it looked like both would easily win but they didn't, because ultimately many of the MPs said they would vote one way and voted another.

Personally anyone who has said one thing publicly and do another thing privately shouldn't be involved in politics - it's one thing for people to change their mind, but openly lying to score points is the kind of politician that are not needed in politics.

4068ac1elhodqr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

The markets suggest there will only be between 99-109 agaisnt her, so yes 104.5 is about the average. After all who would actually want the job.

bilston

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Is it not a public vote? Is it being broadcast?

Secret ballot

Water John

I think a camera will be allowed in once the ballot closes.

hill16bhoy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I'll guess 2:1 (214-104)

I'll go with 184-134.

Water John

Anything near that 130 against prediction would be very bad for her, totally lame duck. Sky confirm a camera in the room.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Often qualified today as being especially applicable to the Torys.

Ian Dunt doesn't seem to value her word as being of much value,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1072942567862517761

devnull

Water John wrote: »

Anything near that 130 against prediction would be very bad for her, totally lame duck.

Would be a bigger mandate than they is for Brexit.

Watch the ERG say she has no mandate if she only gets 60-40 in her favour, being the same people who claim 52-48 is a clear mandate.

hill16bhoy

If it's only 86 that's more than sufficient for May to be secure in her job.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1072942071554686977

briany

devnull wrote: »

Would be a bigger mandate than they is for Brexit.

Watch the ERG say she has no mandate if she only gets 60-40 in her favour, being the same people who claim 52-48 is a clear mandate.

What slippery language would Mogg employ in that case in order to dodge accusations of hypocrisy I wonder?

Water John

I'd be surprised if anyone really knows. Former 1922 chair says they should be counted in 10 mins.

briany

A win here would be another middle finger to those who said she wouldn't last six months in the job. Might have to start calling her 'The Barnacle'.

Water John

Mrs. Mediocre would be nearer the mark.

syngindub

Wonder if she will still go to Brussels tomorrow if she doesnt get the vote

devnull

syngindub wrote: »

Wonder if she will still go to Brussels tomorrow if she doesnt get the vote

She would as she'd no longer be leader of the Tory party but she'd still be Prime Minister until a new leader is chosen.

blackcard

How will the result be announced? By who? In camera?