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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Awesomeness

Theresa May has lied consistently and told everyone what they want to hear.

Shes just told MPs there is a legally binding solution to the backstop coming. She's Lying. Again.

She can say she wont contest the next election but is not giving any dates on when she will step down. Shes probably lying there too. But she will say and do anything to survive this evening.

Tell me how

tuxy wrote: »

While it is current affairs most of this nonsense pantomime belongs in the 1800s
How can the UK expect anyone to take them seriously after this?

Through rigid and persistent ignorance that anyone eases opinion matters.

Exactly as they have been engaging with everyone over at least the last 2 years but in reality since day dot. (Outside of the Tony Blair / George Bush bromance)

devnull

Lots of talk on Twitter about cabinet members set to vote against despite saying otherwise publicly. Since its a secret ballot they want to seem loyal in case she wins it.

Says it all about tory party. Based on numbers declared as supporting her she should win but seems we might not be able to trust that.

tuxy

Tell me how wrote: »

This is the epitome of reality TV if you are in any way interested in current affairs.

While it is current affairs most of this nonsense pantomime belongs in the 1800s
How can the UK expect anyone to take them seriously after this?

Tell me how

Sky News giving a run through of what is happening in Committee room 14 in West Minister.

it is fascinating stuff. They spoke through the sequence of the government whips banging tables within the room as May walks in to project an image that she has a lot of support.

This is the epitome of reality TV if you are in any way interested in current affairs.

flatty

Laois_Man wrote: »

May is apparently going to tell the Tory parliamentary party that she will not contest the next General Election.

She said that a good while back. Look, she is a vile backstabbing coward. Her behaviour has been reprehensible. She, out of personal petulance and bigotry, pulled the "three red lines" out of the sky. She shafted Amber Rudd when she perceived a threat. She has dithered and appeased and evaded for two years whilst businesses have upped sticks. She talks about respecting the will of the people, but she won't let them vote on her proposal. She put the proposal to parliament, then pulled it because she was afraid she would look bad. She has attempted at every turn to subvert parliament. She appointed fools and bigots to the highest offices.
I know for a fact that she has one interest only. Being in charge on March 19, as, for whatever reason, she sees it as her place in history. She cares not a whit for the people, the institutions, the border, the violence, nothing.
She cares only about teresa may. Not a single other thing.

Enzokk

briany wrote: »

David Cameron did not believe in Brexit. He was one of the Remain's biggest advocates. I don't really understand how he was supposed to stay on as Prime Minister when his party and country were going in a direction that he fundamentally did not agree with.

It's not that he's above contempt, though. His decision to boil a complex question down to an either/or choice definitely makes him deserving of jeers, imo.

If he truly believed in the EU and knew of its importance to the UK he would have stayed away from the referendum as much as possible. So either he is as ancapailldorcha mentions also a Eurosceptic or he is an idiot who played fast and loose with the future of the country. There is no way him walking away from the mess he made is respectful.

Laois_Man wrote: »

The promise of a referendum was in the Tory manifesto of the 2015 General Election which is the manifesto that the British people voted for - he didn't just call it out of the blue. I don't remember him saying he would stay on regardless of the Brexit result - perhaps he did - I suspect he was very cocky he would win as it did seem a slam dunk until late on. But his leaving was the right thing. You cant spend months going around the country saying Brexit would be a disaster, impossible, and then take charge of Brexit afterwards. And I do remember him saying he was going to resign if the Scottish independence referendum went against him too. Although I think that was after the event. See, he couldn't say he was going to go BEFORE the vote as it may have attracted more votes to Brexit from people who just wanted rid of him

It was in the manifesto to placate the lunatic fringe of his party. If you play with fire you will get burned, only in this case other people will get burned. People who cannot afford it will suffer the most but he is a millionaire and he will be fine.

I agree he was in an impossible position after the election result, but he put himself there. There was nothing to respect about any of his decisions in all of this, as you posted.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Cameron is a Eurosceptic, albeit one that knows that actually leaving the EU is unwise. He was happy to use it as a scapegoat for years never thinking that it might come back to bit him in the posterior.

Then came Indyref 2014 where he was able to successfully employ all manner of scare tactics to coax the Scots into staying in the UK. However, in 2016 he found that he was unable to rely on either his oligarch press baron accomplices or the Labour party and thus, Brexit.

If I ever meet him, I intend to tell him to go back to his shed and think about what he did.

I am sure you are being somewhat facetious but even so, I'd imagine he has heard that and worse many times in the last 2 years.

He got out of a car on Monday night and clarified that he regretted nothing. When you get over the fact that there is always going to be someone in your face saying that you did the wrong thing, no matter how well you have performed, I imagine it is quite easy to rest with what ever decisions you did make.

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

David Cameron did not believe in Brexit. He was one of the Remain's biggest advocates. I don't really understand how he was supposed to stay on as Prime Minister when his party and country were going in a direction that he fundamentally did not agree with.

It's not that he's above contempt, though. His decision to boil a complex question down to an either/or choice definitely makes him deserving of jeers, imo.

Cameron is a Eurosceptic, albeit one that knows that actually leaving the EU is unwise. He was happy to use it as a scapegoat for years never thinking that it might come back to bit him in the posterior.

Then came Indyref 2014 where he was able to successfully employ all manner of scare tactics to coax the Scots into staying in the UK. However, in 2016 he found that he was unable to rely on either his oligarch press baron accomplices or the Labour party and thus, Brexit.

If I ever meet him, I intend to tell him to go back to his shed and think about what he did.

Laois_Man

May is apparently going to tell the Tory parliamentary party that she will not contest the next General Election.

Laois_Man

Enzokk wrote: »

He is a coward. He called the referendum, he said he would see the result through whatever it is, but when it came down to it he ran away as fast as he could. He lit the paper that is burning down the house, turned around and whistled his way out of No 10. He deserves nothing more than contempt.

The promise of a referendum was in the Tory manifesto of the 2015 General Election which is the manifesto that the British people voted for - he didn't just call it out of the blue. I don't remember him saying he would stay on regardless of the Brexit result - perhaps he did - I suspect he was very cocky he would win as it did seem a slam dunk until late on. But his leaving was the right thing. You cant spend months going around the country saying Brexit would be a disaster, impossible, and then take charge of Brexit afterwards. And I do remember him saying he was going to resign if the Scottish independence referendum went against him too. Although I think that was after the event. See, he couldn't say he was going to go BEFORE the vote as it may have attracted more votes to Brexit from people who just wanted rid of him

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

He is a coward. He called the referendum, he said he would see the result through whatever it is, but when it came down to it he ran away as fast as he could. He lit the paper that is burning down the house, turned around and whistled his way out of No 10. He deserves nothing more than contempt.

David Cameron did not believe in Brexit. He was one of the Remain's biggest advocates. I don't really understand how he was supposed to stay on as Prime Minister when his party and country were going in a direction that he fundamentally did not agree with.

It's not that he's above contempt, though. His decision to boil a complex question down to an either/or choice definitely makes him deserving of jeers, imo.

Inquitus

1/10 on now for May to survive, that implies she'll win with a healthy enough margin to take resignation off the table.

Enzokk

Laois_Man wrote: »

David Cameron did not do the cowardly thing - He did the respectable thing! It might not be saying much, but he was a more honorable PM than May is

He is a coward. He called the referendum, he said he would see the result through whatever it is, but when it came down to it he ran away as fast as he could. He lit the paper that is burning down the house, turned around and whistled his way out of No 10. He deserves nothing more than contempt.

robinph

CrabRevolution wrote: »

There's clearly a large number of Tory MPs who are convinced that:

1. The UK can force the EU to give them a better (i.e.more cake) deal.

2. Theresa May is the one best placed to do this.

Otherwise we wouldn't be seeing the numbers we're seeing in the votes.

These seem sort of contradictory, since they want a harder brexit than May is offering, but want May to deliver brexit. In my mind you can't both want May as PM and want a harder brexit.

They either hold an earnest belief that the EU will capitulate to their demands before March no matter who is PM, or just want a no deal brexit and think this is the best way to achieve it.

Apart from the handful of fringe loons I don't think they particularly believe either of those statements. It's just that holding an anonymous ballot enables them to claim they voted whatever way works best for them once the whole thing is over.

They then get to say "I told you so" forever more and come out looking good, despite them knowing it was all a disaster from the outset.

Hurrache

Remember Andrew Ridgen on Stephen Nolan claiming that the British were entitled to Irish passports, amongst other clangers, and hung up during the ad break and wouldn't answer his phone? Seems like he's a nice bloke to work with
https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1072811633788010497

And I caught this the other day, look how petulant and childish he is when someone dares deconstruct his argument.
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1072444378231255040

CrabRevolution

There's clearly a large number of Tory MPs who are convinced that:

1. The UK can force the EU to give them a better (i.e.more cake) deal.

2. Theresa May is the one best placed to do this.

Otherwise we wouldn't be seeing the numbers we're seeing in the votes.

These seem sort of contradictory, since they want a harder brexit than May is offering, but want May to deliver brexit. In my mind you can't both want May as PM and want a harder brexit.

They either hold an earnest belief that the EU will capitulate to their demands before March no matter who is PM, or just want a no deal brexit and think this is the best way to achieve it.

Water John

TM's performance on immigration should have seen her gone as PM. She never used the rules on immigration available to her, but let Rudd take the flack for her and her Windrush scandal.
Her saying it's about immigration is totally disenginous by her.

Thatnastyboy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

You're forgetting the big one...freedom of movement. That's what is underpinning all of this for Joe Soap on the street. Their big concern is not empire or the inner wranglings of the Tory hierarchy or sovereignty. They don't like hearing foreign languages and accents when they go down to the market. They want to bring it back to the 'good old days'. I've listened to radio shows with James O'Brien where he asks them to spell out the advantages and it always comes back to this.

And for May this has been her reddest of red lines. She has not deviated from this demand and whenever she spells out the advantages of Brexit this is the first point she raises. "We will end freedom of movement..."

I guess there is no need to point out the fallacies of that entire notion in this thread

Mr.Nice Guy

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

I see, but for the country or the "people" - There are little to no benefits?

I am well aware of the drawbacks, I just find it hard to believe that the good people of the UK are just allowing this ****show to continue.

It really does seem there are now 2 options on the table - no deal, or cancel the lot.

A no deal brexit will be an unmitigated disaster, cancelling brexit will cause serious unease - that won't go away. I doubt it could reach civil war levels but there would be a perpetual resounding "this wouldn't have happened if we'd left the EU" every time something less than perfect happens...

And it pretty much all stems from the signwriting on the side of a bus

You're forgetting the big one...freedom of movement. That's what is underpinning all of this for Joe Soap on the street. Their big concern is not empire or the inner wranglings of the Tory hierarchy or sovereignty. They don't like hearing foreign languages and accents when they go down to the market. They want to bring it back to the 'good old days'. I've listened to radio shows with James O'Brien where he asks them to spell out the advantages and it always comes back to this.

And for May this has been her reddest of red lines. She has not deviated from this demand and whenever she spells out the advantages of Brexit this is the first point she raises. "We will end freedom of movement..."

robinph

An MP who was suspended from the party due to sexting has just been let back in so now May needs 159 votes rather than the 158 she needed this morning. The guy just let back in has said he'll vote for her though, so not really much difference.

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

I think you have no idea of just what manoeuvring in politics means.

I clarify again that she has lots done wrong but the suggestion that she is less honourable than Cameron (or the idiots who decided not to go for the Tory leadership because of the mess that had to be dealt with) is fiction.

I have just described her maneuvering in politics

You're seriously trying to pass off contempt of Parliament as honorable political maneuvering??

5 People attempted to win the Tory leadership (Leadsom, Gove, Fox, Crabb and Boris) - did you expect everyone in the party to go for it

As others have said many times on this thread, May will have to be dragged out of #10 kicking and screaming. Her management of the entire Brexit process has been a shambles as her 2017 General Election campaign and result also were. Cameron went freely and quickly and of his own volition which was the honorable thing to do for the good of his country and his party. May doesn't give a shiit about the good of either - it's all about her. The British feel humiliated at the way she has handled this, not just lately, it's been building up for 2 and a half years. And that doesn't even include matters separate to Brexit such as Windbrush

Sam Russell

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

I see, but for the country or the "people" - There are little to no benefits?

I am well aware of the drawbacks, I just find it hard to believe that the good people of the UK are just allowing this ****show to continue.

It really does seem there are now 2 options on the table - no deal, or cancel the lot.

A no deal brexit will be an unmitigated disaster, cancelling brexit will cause serious unease - that won't go away. I doubt it could reach civil war levels but there would be a perpetual resounding "this wouldn't have happened if we'd left the EU" every time something less than perfect happens...

And it pretty much all stems from the signwriting on the side of a bus

It was not sign writing, it was stick on plastic - they had to reuse the bus for the election that lost them their majority.

They need a GE - just to clear this nonsense from the politcal sphere - but they have no leadership anywhere in the HOC. Tories have TM - who lies more than tells the truth. Labour have Jezza who is a Brexiteer but leads a party most of whom are remainers. LibDems have a leader I cannot remember his name but who missed a vital vote on Brexit.

It needs a national government to reverse this pantomime. TM standing at the dispatch box calling for unity - with Labour MPs shouting 'They're behind you!' and Tory MPs shouting 'No we're not - we want her gone!'

It has gone beyond farce. If only Spitting Image was still in business.

intellectual dosser

intellectual dosser wrote: »

She needs 158

Latest count is 174 publicly supporting her

For the record this is now apparently 159 because an Andrew Griffiths has had the party whip restored (maybe he can no longer vote??)

[Deleted User]

I think I might put some money on no Brexit. I don't know the odds but it's the only thing I see happening.

Thatnastyboy

Nody wrote: »

There are tangible benefits for a very limited number of people who will benefit from the crash (be it pound, businesses or property) in a disaster economy style. Others want to turn UK into little USA in terms of regulation for similar reasons (though I'd not be surprised if there is one or two idealists in there from rich families who'll not be impacted anyway).

I see, but for the country or the "people" - There are little to no benefits?

I am well aware of the drawbacks, I just find it hard to believe that the good people of the UK are just allowing this ****show to continue.

It really does seem there are now 2 options on the table - no deal, or cancel the lot.

A no deal brexit will be an unmitigated disaster, cancelling brexit will cause serious unease - that won't go away. I doubt it could reach civil war levels but there would be a perpetual resounding "this wouldn't have happened if we'd left the EU" every time something less than perfect happens...

And it pretty much all stems from the signwriting on the side of a bus

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

She'll win this comfortably and gain a free pass for a year.

Biggest losers ERG and DUP.

I agree on the ERG, this seems like the final throw of the dice for them in terms of TM.

But not sure how the DUP lose out. They won't lose any seats in any GE and they havn't really got anything from TM in terms of Brexit.

swampgas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1072839747431792641

Excellent thread on way no matter what way they turn the backstop or a CU is the only outcome.

Good line from that thread:

Ultimately the backstop crystallizes those choices the UK does not want to make.

It is the prism where ideology collides unhappily with reality.

Hard choices need to be made by the UK. They need to decide which humiliating climb-down to make:

Reverse Brexit, admit they really do need the EU much more than it needs them, and that actually the EU is *ahem* quite a good thing
Take May's deal, and admit that they are now much worse off than they were before, except with control over FOM that they will probably never use
Crash out, break the GFA, and beg for mercy from the EU and the WTO as their country goes into meltdown.

There are no good options, just bad, really bad and catastrophic ones.

fash

cml387 wrote: »

Well worth reading. And from a Daily Telegraph journalist no less.

Peter Foster is a really good journalist on brexit, well worth keeping up with.

Folkstonian

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Backstop will be rock solid concrete if she wins. DUP don't have the balls to bring down the govt.

Arguably after threatening her they are the biggest loser if she wins.

A win doesn’t give her a free pass to do anything.

But more pertinently, with no credible alternative on the table, people were predicting she would get her withdrawal agreement through parliament comfortably enough.

She pulled the vote because even she realised she faced a humiliating rout.

I definitely wouldn’t be counting chickens before the result of tonight’s vote is officially released.