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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Wheres Me Jumper?

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I'm curious to know what they think our place is (apart from being part of the team of 27).

we're not allowed to post vids here, but i'm sure you've seen the Fast Show characters Ralph the English country squire and the Irish groundsman Ted.

blanch152

lawred2 wrote: »

didn't really call for a border poll did they?

they said a no deal crash out situation pushes a border poll forward..

hard to argue surely

That is only true if you ignore the terms of the GFA, something they regularly accuse the UK of.

The truth is that Sinn Fein plays as hard and fast with the terms of the GFA as much as the British do. Here is the text of the provision:

"Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

So, firstly, neither Sinn Fein nor the Irish government have any role in deciding whether a border poll should take place - it is a matter solely for the Secretary of State. Secondly, it has to appear likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish for a united Ireland. "Likely" isn't a simple condition. It would require certainty over what type of united Ireland is likely to be on the table, it would require cross-community buy-in. The idea that nationalists outbreed unionists to 50% plus 1 and then sign up to a united Ireland under existing laws of the Republic would be abhorrent to the principles of the GFA where existing traditions are respected and integrated.

road_high

Well if they’re going to have a second referendum wouldn't they want to be getting on with it very promptly? 29th March is coming around very fast (not to repeat the obvious here).

ancapailldorcha

road_high wrote: »

Well if they’re going to have a second referendum wouldn't they want to be getting on with it very promptly? 29th March is coming around very fast (not to repeat the obvious here).

The EU has said that it would be willing to extend the A50 deadline for this. It's possible that any of the EU27 could throw a spanner in the works but that seems extremely unlikely.

Nody

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ireland is member of EU, that's why it has an abnormal say in this process...

Oh but the article is even more fun...

Over the last few months Tory MPs have asked in private how the Irish Republic can believe its relationship with the EU trumps its relationship with the UK.

They cite economic reasons (the Irish Republic's strong trading links with the UK) and the historical relationship.

The MPs do of course acknowledge that left a troubled legacy.

Yea; rose tinted glasses must have been selling good these last two years I guess. Then again that sounds very much like the "I'm not a racist because I got a black friend" kind of line as well.

Enzokk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-border-poll-4388094-Dec2018/

SF calling a border poll , this seems like very poor timing to me. This just gives the DUP ammo to claim that SF just want to see a hard brexit to bring about a UI

But SF is not involved in any stage of negotiations nor are in power in any government to influence anything so they cannot influence what Brexit is achieved so I fail to see how the DUP could claim what Brexit they want.

Wheres Me Jumper?

road_high wrote: »

Well if they’re going to have a second referendum wouldn't they want to be getting on with it very promptly? 29th March is coming around very fast (not to repeat the obvious here).

well we need to discuss the various options first. if the contributors here are any indication it will probably require at least at least a few weeks Parliamentary debate i should think

An Ciarraioch

Rumours that 48 Tory letters either have been submitted, or are near the target.

road_high

On Mary Lou SF looking to call a border poll, this is completely destabilizing fantasy- it’s not the right time, polls I’ve seen are rarely above 30% support and adding in the chaos of brexit I fail to see how voters in the North would want at this time a double whammy of shocks. Reunification is a long game, adding it into the mix right now is like pouring petrol on the flames.

J Mysterio

blanch152 wrote: »

That is only true if you ignore the terms of the GFA, something they regularly accuse the UK of.

The truth is that Sinn Fein plays as hard and fast with the terms of the GFA as much as the British do. Here is the text of the provision:

"Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

So, firstly, neither Sinn Fein nor the Irish government have any role in deciding whether a border poll should take place - it is a matter solely for the Secretary of State. Secondly, it has to appear likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish for a united Ireland. "Likely" isn't a simple condition. It would require certainty over what type of united Ireland is likely to be on the table, it would require cross-community buy-in. The idea that nationalists outbreed unionists to 50% plus 1 and then sign up to a united Ireland under existing laws of the Republic would be abhorrent to the principles of the GFA where existing traditions are respected and integrated.

Yes... And a crashout Brexit makes a United Ireland likely.

Wheres Me Jumper?

road_high wrote: »

On Mary Lou SF looking to call a border poll, this is completely destabilizing fantasy- it’s not the right time, polls I’ve seen are rarely above 30% support and adding in the chaos of brexit I fail to see how voters in the North would want at this time a double whammy of shocks. Reunification is a long game, adding it into the mix right now is like pouring petrol on the flames.

did you really expect SF to sooth the Tories Brexit woes?

VinLieger

road_high wrote: »

On Mary Lou SF looking to call a border poll, this is completely destabilizing fantasy- it’s not the right time, polls I’ve seen are rarely above 30% support and adding in the chaos of brexit I fail to see how voters in the North would want at this time a double whammy of shocks. Reunification is a long game, adding it into the mix right now is like pouring petrol on the flames.

Agree its not the right time but polling today showed 60% in favour if theres no deal

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-border-poll-4388094-Dec2018/

SF calling a border poll , this seems like very poor timing to me. This just gives the DUP ammo to claim that SF just want to see a hard brexit to bring about a UI

So what?
The DUP are to be protected from the mention of a UI?

I think we are past the 'please be sensitive to Unionists' phase. FG have finally seen the light there - that there is no point being 'nice'. Speak your mind honestly.

MrMusician18

briany wrote: »

Either this source is saying what they're saying out of ignorance or a desire to stoke up divisions with Ireland and make it seem more like it's ireland that is being wilfully intractable out of spite. Either way, the person's words should not be risen to. Does no-one any good.

While remarks like that further poison the well, they are for Tory grassroots consumption. Without attribution, the strategic value of such a statement is limited, though I'm sure the word is out privately regarding who said that.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Newsnight blog...

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1072520557403537408

Ireland is member of EU, that's why it has an abnormal say in this process...

Sir John Major is the real voice of the UK. The place has been hijacked by a bunch of right wing lunatics aided by the press, but I'd say their days are already numbered.

road_high

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

did you really expect SF to sooth the Tories Brexit woes?

It’s not about soothing their woes but a border poll is just a stupid idea right now.

lawred2

road_high wrote: »

On Mary Lou SF looking to call a border poll, this is completely destabilizing fantasy- it’s not the right time, polls I’ve seen are rarely above 30% support and adding in the chaos of brexit I fail to see how voters in the North would want at this time a double whammy of shocks. Reunification is a long game, adding it into the mix right now is like pouring petrol on the flames.

The Tory Brexit is the destabilizer. SF have had no hand act nor part in this entirely UK owned fiasco.

It's entirely valid to state that a no deal crash out will without doubt result in the North of Ireland being worse off and push a bother poll up the agenda.

But SF have zilch to do with destabilizing anything.

Wheres Me Jumper?

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yes... And a crashout Brexit makes a United Ireland likely.

possibility of a UI and the self-destruction of the Tories.
every Shinners wet dream i would have thought.

Wheres Me Jumper?

road_high wrote: »

It’s not about soothing their woes but a border poll is just a stupid idea right now.

not representing your electorate in parliament is a stupid idea.

Rory28

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

keane2097

Christ Almighty, a senior Tory literally comes out with 'the Irish should know their place' and we still have meek Paddies who don't want to mention the prospect of a border poll in case we upset them!?

He's right about some of us knowing our place when it comes to self-flagellation anyway.

tuxy

Rory28 wrote: »

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

Conflicting reports on this. The land border makes it cheaper to support all the problems NI has when compared to what the UK have to payout. But the cost is still unknown. I think it would be very costly at first but that should ease over time.
The most important thing to avoid is the reemergence of violence. I like the idea of a united Ireland but not at the expense of violence even on a smaller scale to the troubles.

Wheres Me Jumper?

keane2097 wrote: »

Christ Almighty, a senior Tory literally comes out with 'the Irish should know their place' and we still have meek Paddies who don't want to mention the prospect of a border poll in case we upset them!?

He's right about some of us knowing our place when it comes to self-flagellation anyway.

i wouldn't be knowing about that type of thing Sur.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what?
The DUP are to be protected from the mention of a UI?

I think we are past the 'please be sensitive to Unionists' phase. FG have finally seen the light there - that there is no point being 'nice'. Speak your mind honestly.

It depends on the audience, you give the DUP short shrift because its all the understand but you also speak past the politicians directly to their voters many of whom do actually have a ounce of cop on.

If there is a Brexit, we need to make partition go away fairly lively and everything from some sort of fudge to keep things as they are up to a United Ireland will be an option.

Wheres Me Jumper?

Rory28 wrote: »

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

i think you need to get a grip Rory.
darkened room and a nice cuppa of herbal tea. Eh?

Rory28

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

i think you need to get a grip Rory.
darkened room and a nice cuppa of herbal tea. Eh?

What are you on about?

Dyr

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

possibility of a UI and the self-destruction of the Tories.
every Shinners wet dream i would have thought.

Break up of the United Kingdom too, for good measure.

Won't be much of a victory if the Loyalists wind up going boogaloo to any sustained degree

briany

Rory28 wrote: »

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

There would be some outstanding questions about a UI. There's the financial aspect, and also the socio-political aspect. The new state would be taking on close to a million people who identify as British, and a good chunk of whom would have voted in the negative in the border poll. Their views and concerns would have to be accommodated. To not do this would make a mockery of the ideals that the flag of Ireland represented before it was co-opted in the North by those of a Republican bent. Those ideals being about peace between the two traditions.

It might be a bit of a hard pill to swallow for some Irish people, but we would at least have to extend the hand of compromise (whether it's slapped away is a different matter). Otherwise, a UI might not be that great of an idea, from a sociological standpoint at least.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

While remarks like that further poison the well, they are for Tory grassroots consumption. Without attribution, the strategic value of such a statement is limited, though I'm sure the word is out privately regarding who said that.

Well whoever it was intended for, it's reached the people concerned. And like all comments about other nations and EU leaders that have also been broadcast, it will do the British government no good. It's just another in a long line of diplomatic faux pas that British politicians and newspapers have been guilty of for decades. People are tired of this crap.

mkdon

tuxy wrote: »

Conflicting reports on this. The land border makes it cheaper to support all the problems NI has when compared to what the UK have to payout. But the cost is still unknown. I think it would be very costly at first but that should ease over time.
The most important thing to avoid is the reemergence of violence. I like the idea of a united Ireland but not at the expense of violence even on a smaller scale to the troubles.

would reopen a can of worms and the troubles