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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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[Deleted User]

Did the annual booze run to Newry today. Crazy busy for a Monday. Came out the back way from the Quays and then up by Flagstaff hill to get back on the motorway as quickly as possible. It meant crossing a potential EU/non-EU frontier 4 times. How awkward will this journey be in the event of a crash out Brexit in a little over 3 months I wonder....?

Hurrache

WTF is going through these people's minds
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1072131209231298560

Nody

Hurrache wrote: »

WTF is going through these people's minds

Well to be fair this is very much in TMs style of "do anything, say anything and promise anything" to remain as a PM. This buys her some more time in the hope a magical unicorn will come and save her; fully in line with the anything but having to take a decisive decision that could see her ousted now rather than tomorrow basically.

BonnieSituation

So let me see...

Is the vote going ahead now?

Is she still making a statement at 1530?

trellheim

Pound showing very close to .91 for a Euro on xe.com

panic boys its red alert

FreudianSlippers

What could the purpose of delaying tomorrow's vote be other than to call a general election?

May and EU have been saying for at least 2 weeks now that this is the best deal - so no point delaying to try to get a new deal.
May has no chance of flipping all Torys back to her side and getting the DUP on side as well (which is effectively what it looks like she's have to do to get this deal over the line) - no delay is going to assist her with this.

I'm not going to be going to the bookies, but I have a feeling it's a resignation announcement at 15:30.

trellheim

I'm not going to be going to the bookies, but I have a feeling it's a resignation announcement at 15:30.

no I am expecting some sort of Neville Chamberlain trip to Munich "I have in my hand a piece of paper"

tuxy

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

What could the purpose of delaying tomorrow's vote be other than to call a general election?

Maybe she wanted to hold the vote and lose by a small enough margin. Watch the markets fall and then hold a second vote where MPs will take her side to stop the damage to the economy.
Trying to stall now that she will lose by too many votes to try to have the HOC vote on it a second time.

Nody

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

What could the purpose of delaying tomorrow's vote be other than to call a general election?

May and EU have been saying for at least 2 weeks now that this is the best deal - so no point delaying to try to get a new deal.
May has no chance of flipping all Torys back to her side and getting the DUP on side as well (which is effectively what it looks like she's have to do to get this deal over the line) - no delay is going to assist her with this.

I'm not going to be going to the bookies, but I have a feeling it's a resignation announcement at 15:30.

Sorry FS but I think you give TM to much credit in the character and backbone department there. She'll make another statement like the one after the fiasco in Salzburg about hearing the people, stubborn woman etc. and some faux outrage to show the Brexiteers she means business and do the whole dance & show about the new deal she's promising she'll sort out. The reason for the delay is because of her renegotiation as she now understands "how important it is for people" or some such and it will buy her time until after the new year basically.

tuxy

She has nothing left to lose, her political career will be over after brexit. Might as well hold on and see how long a no confidence vote takes.

4068ac1elhodqr

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'm not going to be going to the bookies, but I have a feeling it's a resignation announcement at 15:30.

Can't see it, even with a generous 3/1 for 2018 exit.
She's a stubborn and determined Catholic as you will ever see.

Dyr

Presume she's going to Europe tomorrow to give them what for/beg for scraps on the backstop (a backsop?) that she can sell back to the HOC

I reckon the British MP's genuinely cant accept that the EU might throw the UK under the bus rather than us

Enzokk

Water John wrote: »

If TM delays vote until the New Year, what she wants to push is my Deal or Crash out.
Time for Parliament to take control from her hands, in that case.

Parliament could also vote to reverse article 50 so there is 3 choices available to the UK right now. It really depends what Theresa May wants. I wonder if she will realize by changing the course of Brexit that she may just stay until 2022 as PM as the ERG doesn't have enough votes to remove her and she can then focus on domestic politics rather than Brexit.

bilston wrote: »

A second referendum could be very dangerous. While it may become the only option, I think other alternatives need to be looked at first...and I say that as a Remainer. A narrow Remain victory could leave some very angry people out there who might mobilise behind the likes of Yaxley Lennon.

First try and get a Parliament in place whereby a majority for one outcome or the other exists. To do that you need a General Election. If that doesn't work then go back to the people.

If people want to riot over Brexit let them go ahead. They are in the minority and as the marches the weekend shows the likes of Robinson and his followers will always be in the minority. Time for the people to stand up to the extremists in their country. These include the extreme politicians as well.

Rjd2 wrote: »

I actually think Labour pleading for a general election here is doing them no favors, its looks as self-serving and cynical as what Johnson has been doing over the last few years. The vast majority of Tories want Brexit in one shape or other so May and any other leader has to commit to that, but that's not the case for Labour, their is no political hay to be made with their current stance.

Its all very odd to watch indeed.

Labour is in very much a similar position as the SNP before the 2017 election where they were agitating for a new independence referendum and it just made the electorate angry. Maybe if they rowed in behind staying and reversing article 50 they would gain even more traction but they are just as useless at leadership level as the Tories.

Here is a tweet with video of our stance on the deal available.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1072113140949762049

VinLieger

trellheim wrote: »

Pound showing very close to .91 for a Euro on xe.com

panic boys its red alert

Looks like it was starting to recover when the vote was called off now that theres just mass confusion everywhere its starting to drop again

Nody

tuxy wrote: »

She has nothing left to lose, her political career will be over after brexit. Might as well hold on and see how long a no confidence vote takes.

I'd expect it about a week or so in so 4th or 5th of April. Need to get a few days of horrible news out there to ensure you can pretend to be the knight in shining armor to fix things; if there was only one contender I'd put it back another week or two to really dig the heel in on the bad news but with at least 3 wannabie PMs in the wing I think a week is the max it will take.

Strazdas

Bambi wrote: »

Presume she's going to Europe tomorrow to give them what for/beg for scraps on the backstop (a backsop?) that she can sell back to the HOC

I reckon the British MP's genuinely cant accept that the EU might throw the UK under the bus rather than us

Thursday.....that's the day of the EU leaders meeting.

briany

Nody wrote: »

Sorry FS but I think you give TM to much credit in the character and backbone department there. She'll make another statement like the one after the fiasco in Salzburg about hearing the people, stubborn woman etc. and some faux outrage to show the Brexiteers she means business and do the whole dance & show about the new deal she's promising she'll sort out. The reason for the delay is because of her renegotiation as she now understands "how important it is for people" or some such and it will buy her time until after the new year basically.

Being the PM of the UK must feel like a constant morphine drip that you never develop a tolerance to or a drowsiness from, if she wants to just hang on as PM for a little more time but with no ideas as to how to make constructive use of that time.

Strazdas

Douglas Thoughtless Headache wrote: »

Can't see it, even with a generous 3/1 for 2018 exit.
She's a stubborn and determined Catholic as you will ever see.

She definitely won't resign : she'll try the desperate plea to the EU angle first before she attempts anything else.

hill16bhoy

Hurrache wrote: »

WTF is going through these people's minds
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1072131209231298560

The British want to be allowed unilaterally withdraw from the backstop.

That is OUT.

The British want a legally binding commitment from the EU that the backstop will never be used.

That is OUT.

The British want to renege on the deal they signed just three weeks ago.

That is OUT.

serfboard

briany wrote: »

You can't have a referendum with 3 options because you invite the potential scenario where Remain wins but only has an explicit mandate from, say, 40 percent of the electorate. You better believe that every single Brexiteer of influence would have a year of field days with that. And Remainers would make a similar political noise if Leave won with 40 percent. Disaffected wouldn't be a strong enough adjective for the level of anger when a clear minority gets to decide the course of the UK, possibly for the foreseeable future.

Good points, but, to me, you can't have two options on this issue - in that case, which do you leave out? A two-option referendum would cause (more) chaos.

Deal/No-Deal - no remain option.

Deal/Remain - no WTO option. Facing down the ERG/UKIP? Not likely.

No-Deal/Remain - Nothing like any Brexit that people might have voted for, plus why don't you put The Deal, that you supposedly sincerely believe in, to the people? Also, in this scenario, Remain wins, therefore No Brexit, again leading to chaos.

Sorry, there has to Ref2, and it has to be three options. Nothing else can work, IMO.

Enzokk

Arlene has had her say,

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1072142368973963264

The replies are interesting, seems that people have caught on to the DUP.

4068ac1elhodqr

Strazdas wrote: »

She definitely won't resign : she'll try the desperate plea to the EU angle first before she attempts anything else.

Yep, not until March, after which it's booky wooky time, beach holiday, and a golden pension to look forward to anyway.

Labour are circling like pack hounds now, barking "call an election then". But Jez can only win if he looses the PR disaster that is Diane Abbot, quickfast.

VinLieger

The EU side should just lock up shop and leave a piece of paper stuck to the inside window saying "Gone on holidays to visit close friends..... the Irish..... back April 1st"

Enzokk

serfboard wrote: »

Good points, but, to me, you can't have two options on this issue - in that case, which do you leave out? A two-option referendum would cause (more) chaos.

Deal/No-Deal - no remain option.

Deal/Remain - no WTO option. Facing down the ERG/UKIP? Not likely.

No-Deal/Remain - Nothing like any Brexit that people might have voted for, plus why don't you put The Deal, that you supposedly sincerely believe in, to the people? Also, in this scenario, Remain wins, therefore No Brexit, again leading to chaos.

Sorry, there has to Ref2, and it has to be three options. Nothing else can work, IMO.

Could you ask two questions? Do you want to continue with Brexit or not? Second question, do you want the deal as negotiated or leave without a deal? Then if leaving the EU wins at least you get a mandate from the people on what deal they want as well.

Nody

serfboard wrote: »

Good points, but, to me, you can't have two options on this issue - in that case, which do you leave out? A two-option referendum would cause (more) chaos.

Deal/No-Deal - no remain option.

Deal/Remain - no WTO option. Facing down the ERG/UKIP? Not likely.

No-Deal/Remain - Nothing like any Brexit that people might have voted for, plus why don't you put The Deal, that you supposedly sincerely believe in, to the people? Also, in this scenario, Remain wins, therefore No Brexit, again leading to chaos.

Sorry, there has to Ref2, and it has to be three options. Nothing else can work, IMO.

I think I saw on twitter the best solution it with a two question set up.

Q1) Should we remain or leave EU without a deal?
Remain - See Q2
Leave without a deal

Q2) Only applicable if you voted remain in Q1
Cancel A50
Leave on May's deal

It's not perfect but at least you give only binary choices to people and will clearly give a remain/leave vote there.

4068ac1elhodqr

If there's a cancel on the A50 or 2nd Ref,
do expect fuel shortages but not from dockside redtape,
but due to 'yellow/orange vests'.

briany

Nody wrote: »

I think I saw on twitter the best solution it with a two question set up.

Q1) Should we remain or leave EU without a deal?
Remain - See Q2
Leave without a deal

Q2) Only applicable if you voted remain in Q1
Cancel A50
Leave on May's deal

It's not perfect but at least you give only binary choices to people and will clearly give a remain/leave vote there.

If you had three choices on a ballot, the way I'd do it is,

[ ] Cancel A50. Remain in EU.
[ ] Accept the proposed WA
[ ] Leave without a deal

Do it PR style. Order of preference. Lowest 1st preference option, gets its 2nd pref redistributed among the other two. Having a winner with less than 50 percent of the overall tally just isn't an option in this case. The final decision would need a proper mandate to have any legs. It's a snowman waiting for Spring, otherwise.

cantwbr1

briany wrote: »

Nody wrote: »

I think I saw on twitter the best solution it with a two question set up.

Q1) Should we remain or leave EU without a deal?
Remain - See Q2
Leave without a deal

Q2) Only applicable if you voted remain in Q1
Cancel A50
Leave on May's deal

It's not perfect but at least you give only binary choices to people and will clearly give a remain/leave vote there.

If you had three choices on a ballot, the way I'd do it is,

[ ] Cancel A50. Remain in EU.
[ ] Accept the proposed WA
[ ] Leave without a deal

Do it PR style. Order of preference. Lowest 1st preference option, gets its 2nd pref redistributed among the other two. Having a winner with less than 50 percent of the overall tally just isn't an option in this case. The final decision would need a proper mandate to have any legs. It's a snowman waiting for Spring, otherwise.

This is the correct option. Ideally they would bring in outside support to help/supervise. Now where would they get experts in PR/STV to help.
The irony would be brilliant

flatty

May will announce that she is stable and strong, and going back to the EU to assert her authority. The question is, whether she can dress whatever twaddle she comes back with in new enough clothes to mask the fact that it's still a crash test dummy. I doubt it, but it's her final throw of the dice. She is absolutely desperate to be pm at the time of brexit. It is her raison d'etre. That's it.

devnull

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1072150631270486016

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