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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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LuckyLloyd

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So why then do they stand in "foreign" elections?
I don't want this thread to become a SF bashing thread but SF by being absent are depriving NI people from having their voices heard. Stand down from their MP seats and let someone who will actually do the job take it

They were elected because of their abstentionist stance, not inspite of it.

blanch152

Tell me how wrote: »

It is reasonable to suggest that SF voters made their choice fully expecting the practice of abstentionism to be upheld.

SF doing pretty much anything differently to prior practice would have further strengthened UK media claims that the Union is being under attack by the EU and the Irish government.

I think you missed my point, if SF are sticking to their "principle" at the cost of nationalists not having a say on Brexit, unlike, say the SNP who are ensuring Scottish nationalists are heard, then it would make sense for the NI electorate to elect nationalist politicians who will make their voice heard, especially if an election is called over Brexit.

First Up

Sinn Fein are a single issue party. Irrelevant to anything else.

FrancieBrady

lawred2 wrote: »

Could you imagine the response from little Englanders were Irish nationalists to start playing hurler on the ditch?

SF are doing the exact right thing keeping their head's down on this.

It's a massive result for SF if the choice for the UK is the Deal or No Brexit at all.(which is basically what has happened, bar some more huffing and puffing)

The DUP are now poison in their own Union and there will be a cost to them for what they have done to Tory ambition.
The wider public in the UK are now fully aware of how reluctant these people are to share power and how bigoted they are on social and cultural issues.

Still a few north and south who will claim a win for Irish Unionism out of all this but the reality is that, like the UK in general, it's standing and security is greatly diminished.

EdgeCase

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you missed my point, if SF are sticking to their "principle" at the cost of nationalists not having a say on Brexit, unlike, say the SNP who are ensuring Scottish nationalists are heard, then it would make sense for the NI electorate to elect nationalist politicians who will make their voice heard, especially if an election is called over Brexit.

To be fair to the both SF and the SNP, the Northern Irish and Scottish political situations are drastically different and Northern Ireland's identity questions are much more fraught and complex.

I think speculating on SF changing a long-standing and very core position that they have held since the foundation of their party is simply a waste of time. You might as well be hoping the Tories become socialist republicans. It ain't going to happen!

What's worrying me more so is that despite the Northern Ireland assembly being suspended now since 9 January 2017. It's going on two years without a functioning government at this stage. It's shocking that new elections haven't been called up there. I mean you might as well just abandon democracy entirely at this rate. It's blatantly obvious they're not going to come to some kind of power-sharing agreement anytime soon.

josip

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But equally sterling is likely to fall through the floor in the short term and thus make items priced in sterling much cheaper here.

But most of the stuff they sell, is actually just resold having been imported, or at best assembled there.
So any fall in the value of Sterling will have zero impact on the retail price of goods to an Irish purchaser.

seamus

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But equally sterling is likely to fall through the floor in the short term and thus make items priced in sterling much cheaper here.

Very short term. As prawnsambo points out, weak sterling means that the cost of importing to the UK shoots up, and since the UK is import-heavy, the overall cost to bounce on those goods to Ireland, won't change all that much. For people in the UK, the cost of these goods will rise massively.

The only benefit we'll get in the short-term is retailers selling off inventory at their original purchase price. Which with a weak sterling, benefits us.
When it comes time to restock, the cost of the goods to the retailer will rise, and so the sterling price will have to rise too, and any benefit of a weak sterling to us, is lost.

Shelga

What are the chances of Brexit just not happening at all now?

That option definitely seems more likely than crashing out with no deal, no?

First Up

seamus wrote: »

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But equally sterling is likely to fall through the floor in the short term and thus make items priced in sterling much cheaper here.

Very short term. As prawnsambo points out, weak sterling means that the cost of importing to the UK shoots up, and since the UK is import-heavy, the overall cost to bounce on those goods to Ireland, won't change all that much. For people in the UK, the cost of these goods will rise massively.

The only benefit we'll get in the short-term is retailers selling off inventory at their original purchase price. Which with a weak sterling, benefits us.
When it comes time to restock, the cost of the goods to the retailer will rise, and so the sterling price will have to rise too, and any benefit of a weak sterling to us, is lost.

Goods of UK origin should be cheaper but anything with import content will be vulnerable to sterling's weakness.
I think the bigger problems will be logistical - goods we currently source through UK intermediaries. Those supply chains are all likely to be disrupted.

Leroy42

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you missed my point, if SF are sticking to their "principle" at the cost of nationalists not having a say on Brexit, unlike, say the SNP who are ensuring Scottish nationalists are heard, then it would make sense for the NI electorate to elect nationalist politicians who will make their voice heard, especially if an election is called over Brexit.

The voices may be being heard but it is having no impact at all.

Scotland has been completely cast aside in the debate, the wil of people of the union meaning that anything they have to say is simply ignored as it was covered by the majority.

The only reason the DUP are being any voice is because TM needs them for government, you can be totally sure that had she won a majority the DUP wouldn't even be a footnote in the debate.

SF, even if they took up their seats, are never going to be in a government so, just like the SNP, they would achieve nothing but instead throw away a guiding principle.

Personally I don't agree with their principle, but I respect that it was what they have always stood on.

cml387

Shelga wrote: »

What are the chances of Brexit just not happening at all now?

That option definitely seems more likely than crashing out with no deal, no?

It's inconceivable that Brexit wouldn't happen, without a new referendum. I just don't see how TM thinks that's an option if the vote is defeated, other than a sad attempt to scare the Brexiteers.

Leroy42

Shelga wrote: »

What are the chances of Brexit just not happening at all now?

That option definitely seems more likely than crashing out with no deal, no?

The likelyhood of a delay is certainly increasing, IMO. I just cannot see how the UK can turn back the clock on all this now. They have allowed such fervour and nationalism to take hold that even a compromise deal such as TM has proposed is seen as treachery.

The fact they they are so aghast that they cannot simply leave a backstop whenever they feel like it, despite it being there because of the GFA and the peace of NI, shows just how far they have gone down this rabbit hole.

On top of that, both the PM and the Corbyn both want Brexit, so there isn't even a call for it from the main parties.

cml387

Brexiteers may ask for a delay so that they have time to organise a hard Brexit.

boggerman1

Listening to James O'Brien on lbc.an idiot from Derbyshire saying thanks to EU there are roads to nowhere in Ireland built.when asked to name them naturally he was stumped.god almighty the education system in England has a lot to answer for.but still he wants brexit full steam ahead cause.......he wasn't sure why.

lawred2

boggerman1 wrote: »

Listening to James O'Brien on lbc.an idiot from Derbyshire saying thanks to EU there are roads to nowhere in Ireland built.when asked to name them naturally he was stumped.god almighty the education system in England has a lot to answer for.but still he wants brexit full steam ahead cause.......he wasn't sure why.

such claptrap could only come from a barstool or a tabloid...

big problem with democracy is that those with low level intellect and zero engagement can still have a vote

time after time it's been shown that populism can very quickly whip up the masses into self destructive behaviour

L1011

EdgeCase wrote: »

I think speculating on SF changing a long-standing and very core position that they have held since the foundation of their party is simply a waste of time.

They gave up on council abstentionism, they gave up on Dáil abstentionism, they gave up on Stormont abstentionism and they recognised the police and courts in NI.

They have no issue changing long standing core positions!

Nody

cml387 wrote: »

It's inconceivable that Brexit wouldn't happen, without a new referendum. I just don't see how TM thinks that's an option if the vote is defeated, other than a sad attempt to scare the Brexiteers.

You are missing a key point in your argument which is what's the number 1 issue beyond everything and anything for TM? Answer: To remain a PM for as long as possible. Nothing else matters to her beyond that point; hence if she thinks calling for a new referendum would risk her getting outed now instead of after crash out then she' likely to prefer the crash out...

RobMc59

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They were elected because of their abstentionist stance, not inspite of it.

When I asked the question I thought it a relevant subject and it does seem to divide opinion-personally I believe it's a missed opportunity in an extraordinary situation that we may never see again.

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

When I asked the question I thought it a relevant subject and it does seem to divide opinion-personally I believe it's a missed opportunity in an extraordinary situation that we may never see again.

People could have voted for another Nationalist party who would have taken their seats - the SDLP - but they didn't.

keane2097

RobMc59 wrote: »

When I asked the question I thought it a relevant subject and it does seem to divide opinion-personally I believe it's a missed opportunity in an extraordinary situation that we may never see again.

Based on the last few years I doubt the opportunity to criticise a British PM for incompetence is a once in a lifetime thing.

An Ciarraioch

The final ruling in the Article 50 case will be delivered on Monday morning - so 24 hours before MPs vote.

Calina

RobMc59 wrote: »

When I asked the question I thought it a relevant subject and it does seem to divide opinion-personally I believe it's a missed opportunity in an extraordinary situation that we may never see again.

I think at this point, it is irrelevant and a distraction. Bear in mind they play a long game. Staying out of the way in the context is prudent, meanwhile, the numbers are going there way.

As a general note, the question of SF comes up in this thread regularly. Always but always at a pount at which distraction from some idiocy in London is required.

Anyone who reads the threads knows this. SF by voting against the government can change nothing unless there are a bunch of rebels at least or the DUP vote with. SF would need to extract serious concessions out of the Tories to vote with them. The kind of concessions no UK government is even remotely enabled to deliver. Voting with the Tories for anything would destroy SF completely no matter if unification was delivered or not. SF are effectively powerless and staying out of the way of flying muck. I cannot stand them but they are basically valueless here. Bringing them up is a distraction.

Leroy42

So Tm is off renegotiating the deal without actually telling the EU that she is doing it. She is planning on giving the UK parliament a veto on whether a backstop comes into effect!

The Prime Minister is understood to have discussed the latest veto plans with small groups of rebels in a desperate bid to get them to change their mind ahead of the Commons showdown.

She aired the plan publicly for the first time on Thursday morning, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “The backstop is talked about as if it’s automatic. Actually it is not automatic – there is a choice.

“If we do need [further talks] there is a choice to be made and I am looking at the question of the role of parliament in that choice and then what would happen thereafter.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-theresa-may-backstop-irish-border-withdrawal-agreement-vote-parliament-mps-a8670231.html

So the UK are aghast that they must agree with the EU on the ending of an agreement, but think the EU will be happy to simply let the UK make decisions that effect the EU without any input from the EU? Only last week TM stated, in the HoC, that any deal requires a backstop.

briany

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Tm is off renegotiating the deal without actually telling the EU that she is doing it. She is planning on giving the UK parliament a veto on whether a backstop comes into effect!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-theresa-may-backstop-irish-border-withdrawal-agreement-vote-parliament-mps-a8670231.html

So the UK are aghast that they must agree with the EU on the ending of an agreement, but think the EU will be happy to simply let the UK make decisions that effect the EU without any input from the EU? Only last week TM stated, in the HoC, that any deal requires a backstop.

Whenever you're trying to please two opposing sides, you're going to find yourself doing an awful lot of double-talking and deceit.

ArmaniJeanss

boggerman1 wrote: »

Listening to James O'Brien on lbc.an idiot from Derbyshire saying thanks to EU there are roads to nowhere in Ireland built.when asked to name them naturally he was stumped.god almighty the education system in England has a lot to answer for.but still he wants brexit full steam ahead cause.......he wasn't sure why.

Ireland does have plenty of roads to nowhere. Ironically though they were actually constructed during the 1840s Famine under a Westminster directive, google 'Ireland famine roads'.

[Deleted User]

L1011 wrote: »

They gave up on council abstentionism, they gave up on Dáil abstentionism, they gave up on Stormont abstentionism and they recognised the police and courts in NI.

They have no issue changing long standing core positions!

Absolutely agree, but timing is everything and this isn't the time.

farmchoice

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Tm is off renegotiating the deal without actually telling the EU that she is doing it. She is planning on giving the UK parliament a veto on whether a backstop comes into effect!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-theresa-may-backstop-irish-border-withdrawal-agreement-vote-parliament-mps-a8670231.html

So the UK are aghast that they must agree with the EU on the ending of an agreement, but think the EU will be happy to simply let the UK make decisions that effect the EU without any input from the EU? Only last week TM stated, in the HoC, that any deal requires a backstop.

at present at the end ( under the terms of the WA) of the transition period the uk has a choice if a satisfactory FTA has not being agreed.
they can chose to extend the transition period by 1 or 2 years or they can enter the backstop arrangement.

this is the choice may is offering parliament as opposed to the government deciding. they get to chose between the rock and the hard place.

Imreoir2

boggerman1 wrote: »

Listening to James O'Brien on lbc.an idiot from Derbyshire saying thanks to EU there are roads to nowhere in Ireland built.when asked to name them naturally he was stumped.god almighty the education system in England has a lot to answer for.but still he wants brexit full steam ahead cause.......he wasn't sure why.

To be fair, one of them does go to Cork...

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Yep, I'll be switching to Amazon.es, .fr, .de .it.... 😁

Amazon is a good example. They obviously do a huge amount of business in Ireland, I wonder what plans they have for Irish customers?

seamus wrote: »

Assuming no deal, then you will see a bit of a jump.

At the moment UK retailers who sell decent amounts into Ireland (think Amazon), charge our own rate of 23% VAT on the sale. But the goods are not subject to customs duties.

After a no-deal exit, the UK site will sell the product to you ex-VAT, but Irish customs will require that you pay duty + VAT on the item.

If the item costs less than €150, no duty will be collected on it, but VAT will be.

So, not a major issue for the typical kind of online sales, since most are probably under €150.

However, the package will be stopped and held by the carrier until you pay the VAT. So what was previously a simple transaction with a package that arrived 3 days later, now becomes a far more annoying transaction that may take two weeks to reach you.

For this reason alone, most people will switch to other EU suppliers for online shopping.

farmchoice

i have been listening to most of the HOC debate on the WA so far.
the most striking think is how incredibly badly informed they all are about everything that has happened since article 50 was triggered.

about the negotiations, what the WA is, what the political deceleration is,what is in the WA, what a backstop is, what this backstop is for and why it exists.

and this ignorance extends to every party, front benches included. its mind boggling.

john mc Donnell has been outlining labours position and its all unicorns to beat the band and the torys cant even pick it apart because out from ken clarke they dont have an notion what hes talking about.