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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is in the EU's interest to ensure that the UK doesn't have its cake and eat it.

The whole point of that metaphor is that it is not possible to have cake and eat it, because after you eat it, it is gone.

This is not the EU being cruel to the UK, it is not a political strategy - it is a simple fact.

RobMc59

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The whole point of that metaphor is that it is not possible to have cake and eat it, because after you eat it, it is gone.

This is not the EU being cruel to the UK, it is not a political strategy - it is a simple fact.

Quoting the EU line is all well and good but its not best for Ireland-all sources predict a hard Brexit will actually damage Ireland more than the UK-perhaps the EU see that as acceptable collateral damage

Nody

RobMc59 wrote: »

Quoting the EU line is all well and good but its not best for Ireland-all sources predict a hard Brexit will actually damage Ireland more than the UK-perhaps the EU see that as acceptable collateral damage

Care to back that claim up because I can find no sources to back up that claim and since you claim all sources do so... Let's take for example the IMF who says UK is worse of (4% loss for UK on WTO terms, 3.9 for Ireland which is the closest I've found). Or how about the Irish central bank who concludes a 0.3 to 0.8% loss for every 1% GDP loss in the UK. Oh and not best for Ireland? I'd suggest you go check out where UK exports are going to and what's a major driver in non EU companies to set up shop in Ireland...

And this is before the simple fact that EU is a rule based organization (unlike UK who takes laws and rules as recommendations at best). Take the Galileo project for example; UK pushed for and agreed to the rules that no third party country can get full access to it. Now they are whining like children outside a candy store that they will not get to have full access to the system after leaving after having previously pushed for those exact rules that they are now complaining about. That is not punishing UK for leaving; it's a direct consequence of UK's decision to leave and was clearly outlined from day 1. It's like I'd go up to my boss and telling them I'm resigning but I expect you to keep paying me my salary because you've done so in the past.

Calina

RobMc59 wrote: »

Quoting the EU line is all well and good but its not best for Ireland-all sources predict a hard Brexit will actually damage Ireland more than the UK-perhaps the EU see that as acceptable collateral damage

It is the UK we have to thank for this calamity whatever the impact on Ireland. The UK voted for Brexit.

No sources predict a hard Brexit will damage aireland more than the Uak. IIRC correctly, NI suffers more in the case of a hard Brexit than the rest of the UK.

If the UK wants to be seen as a good neighbour, a good approach would be acknowledgement of the impact of its decision on its close neighbours and mitigating for it.

The UK sees Ireland as collateral damage to be ignored except as a bargaining chip. The UK has an agreement which it appears to hate because the EU did not see Ireland as collateral damage but as a member whose interests should be protected. The UK's behaviour has been predicated on the idea the EU would hang Ireland out to dry because that is what the UK itself would do.

But responsibility for a hard Brexit lies with the UK and any damage siffered by Ireland, the UK is responsible for.

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

Quoting the EU line is all well and good but its not best for Ireland-all sources predict a hard Brexit will actually damage Ireland more than the UK-perhaps the EU see that as acceptable collateral damage

If this was true, how can you come onto an Irish discussion site and be amazed when posters are upset and angry at the UK? How can you seriously post that there is an echo chamber when the country and the people living here will suffer due to a decision they haven't made, a decision that was made where the side that "won" broke spending rules and where lies were told repeatedly to help win the vote and nobody seems to care?

How can you be amazed that some of us see the only way for the UK to come to its senses is for it to feel the pain of their decision when we are going to be as severely affected?

Then we come on to the fact that we could be talking about people dying in the streets again. The PSNI has warned there is a real risk of a return to the past if Brexit has all those bad consequences everyone is seeing.

So I actually think the discussion on here has been quite calm and rational. We already have people in the UK talking about civil war and riots if they don't get their way. Ireland will be harmed when we did nothing to cause this harm to ourselves. At least during the GFC we shared some of the blame for letting ourselves open to the consequences of the pain that was suffered. But here we are just a bystander to a tantrum that has turned violent.

Ok, rant over. If the UK plan during the talks is to hope the EU will not let Ireland be harmed if they absolutely gut themselves then you are out of luck. We will try to get the best deal we can for ourselves, which is if the UK isn't in the SM and CU is that NI is in both. I think we have come pretty close to that in the WA.

Make no mistake that we aren't somehow aware on here of the damage that could be caused to Ireland. Why do you think we keep posting about how stupid this whole thing is? Funny that people see that as looking down on the people of the UK or somehow looking to deprive them of their democratic right to decide for themselves on the future of their country. But when there is a real chance we will hurt due to their decision, please be careful not to come over as all righteous about us not having a balanced discussion on this thread.

Rhineshark

RobMc59 wrote: »

Quoting the EU line is all well and good but its not best for Ireland-all sources predict a hard Brexit will actually damage Ireland more than the UK-perhaps the EU see that as acceptable collateral damage

No, they don't.

Most sources reckon that Ireland will take a bad hit if the UK does. We all know this. No, it is not likely to be a worse hit. We're not dumping all our trade arrangements in the Thames. And we have been preparing and divesting from the UK.

So having started on a ...well, it is not true at least, that does rather undermine the spiteful comment about how this imaginary worse-than-UK-damage is acceptable collateral to the EU. (Why do you even think that works anymore?)

Basically, everything you said there is incorrect or based on an incorrect assumption.

And sticking with the EU line that the EU are sticking with as the Irish line may not, ultimately, be Good for RoI (very little about this rolling ****show is) but it's a hell of a lot better than the alternatives.

RobMc59

Rhineshark wrote: »

No, they don't.

Most sources reckon that Ireland will take a bad hit if the UK does. We all know this. No, it is not likely to be a worse hit. We're not dumping all our trade arrangements in the Thames. And we have been preparing and divesting from the UK.

So having started on a ...well, it is not true at least, that does rather undermine the spiteful comment about how this imaginary worse-than-UK-damage is acceptable collateral to the EU. (Why do you even think that works anymore?)

Basically, everything you said there is incorrect or based on an incorrect assumption.

And sticking with the EU line that the EU are sticking with as the Irish line may not, ultimately, be Good for RoI (very little about this rolling ****show is) but it's a hell of a lot better than the alternatives.

Ì googled 'brexit effect on Ireland 2018'.
Pointing this out isn't having a pop at Ireland-the UK is on a path to self destruction with a no deal brexit.
There is a definite hierarchy within the EU and the big decisions always seem to conveniently suit the big 2 (formerly big 3)the backstop suits them the most as it stops the UK in its tracks and discourages others which is expectable-can you see any reason why the UK would want a hard border?-Ireland is concerned about the possible effects of Brexit on the close relationship with the UK but that also works both ways-why would that relationship change if the UK wasn't in the EU without a backstop?-it's also in the UK interest to have this close relationship.
I want the UK to remain in the EU and using the same formula as some other posters I want it because the UK will return as of the 'big 3'-if you think the EU doesn't have a hierarchy maybe you need to look again.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Quoting the EU line is all well and good but its not best for Ireland-all sources predict a hard Brexit will actually damage Ireland more than the UK-perhaps the EU see that as acceptable collateral damage

A hard Brexit will be extremely damaging to Ireland, though probably not quite as damaging to us as to the UK. But, yeah, the two of us would be much more severely impacted than any other country.

But it's stupid to blame the EU for this. The EU does not want a hard Brexit, and is not manoeuvring to get one. Advocates for hard Brexit are all in the UK, and if the WA is rejected in the UK it will likely be because it is not hard enough. The Irish backstop is objectionable to Brexiters because it prevents them from having a Brexit as hard as they would like.

It makes no sense to say that we could avoid a hard Brexit if the EU relaxes its line sufficiently to allow the UK to have a WA that will give them a hard Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

RobMc59 wrote: »

can you see any reason why the UK would want a hard border?

Yes, of course I can.

One of the big benefits of Brexit is supposed to be Britain making a tonne of money by making new trade deals with countries outside the EU.

They can't do that and leave their borders wide open.

So for this benefit of Brexit to kick in , they either need a customs border in Ireland, or leave NI in the Single Market and have a customs border down the Irish Sea.

And May has been clear, very clear, that a customs border in the Irish Sea would undermine the Union and she won't have it.

Bit cynical

Peregrinus wrote: »

But it's stupid to blame the EU for this. The EU does not want a hard Brexit, and is not manoeuvring to get one. Advocates for hard Brexit are all in the UK,[...]

Well not entirely in the UK. There have been posts on this forum, for example, advocating a hard brexit on the basis that economic shock might be what the UK needs in order to learn.

First Up

RobMc59 wrote: »

Rhineshark wrote: »

No, they don't.

Most sources reckon that Ireland will take a bad hit if the UK does. We all know this. No, it is not likely to be a worse hit. We're not dumping all our trade arrangements in the Thames. And we have been preparing and divesting from the UK.

So having started on a ...well, it is not true at least, that does rather undermine the spiteful comment about how this imaginary worse-than-UK-damage is acceptable collateral to the EU. (Why do you even think that works anymore?)

Basically, everything you said there is incorrect or based on an incorrect assumption.

And sticking with the EU line that the EU are sticking with as the Irish line may not, ultimately, be Good for RoI (very little about this rolling ****show is) but it's a hell of a lot better than the alternatives.

Ì googled 'brexit effect on Ireland 2018'.
Pointing this out isn't having a pop at Ireland-the UK is on a path to self destruction with a no deal brexit.
There is a definite hierarchy within the EU and the big decisions always seem to conveniently suit the big 2 (formerly big 3)the backstop suits them the most as it stops the UK in its tracks and discourages others which is expectable-can you see any reason why the UK would want a hard border?-Ireland is concerned about the possible effects of Brexit on the close relationship with the UK but that also works both ways-why would that relationship change if the UK wasn't in the EU without a backstop?-it's also in the UK interest to have this close relationship.
I want the UK to remain in the EU and using the same formula as some other posters I want it because the UK will return as of the 'big 3'-if you think the EU doesn't have a hierarchy maybe you need to look again.

Hierarchy, as in the big countries tend to have more influence than the small ones because they make a greater contribution?

Well, welcome to planet Earth; its reassuring to know that you have a firm grasp of the blindingly obvious.

However that is not at all the same as the big ones dominating or exploiting the small ones and if you know anything about how the EU works (which you clearly don't) you would know that it is the exact opposite.

Calina

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well not entirely in the UK. There have been posts on this forum, for example, advocating a hard brexit on the basis that economic shock might be what the UK needs in order to learn.

TBF that is in the context of abysmal negotiation and ongoing cake policy in the UK.

20silkcut

First Up wrote: »

Hierarchy, as in the big countries tend to have more influence than the small ones because they make a greater contribution?

Well, welcome to planet Earth; its reassuring to know that you have a firm grasp of the blindingly obvious.

However that is not at all the same as the big ones dominating or exploiting the small ones and if you know anything about how the EU works (which you clearly don't) you would know that it is the exact opposite.

A quick glance at British history would demonstrate why that is a difficult concept for them to understand.

Calina

RobMc59 wrote: »

can you see any reason why the UK would want a hard border?-

I seem to recall "We want control of our borders" being a rationale for Brexit.

That includes the border landside of NI or don't you understand what the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is?

Professor Moriarty

This morning, Starmer outlined how a second referendum would come about. Assuming May loses the vote, Labour will put down a motion of no confidence. If May loses they will push for a GE. If May wins, they will push for a second referendum. What is very interesting is that he believes that No Deal should not be an option in the referendum. Even though a recent poll found that 30% of voters want a hard Brexit.

As for the supply and confidence agreement, the DUP will vote with Labour to force publication of the AG's legal opinion. If that happens and goes through, May will have lost whatever credibility and authority she has left.

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

Ì googled 'brexit effect on Ireland 2018'.
Pointing this out isn't having a pop at Ireland-the UK is on a path to self destruction with a no deal brexit.
There is a definite hierarchy within the EU and the big decisions always seem to conveniently suit the big 2 (formerly big 3)the backstop suits them the most as it stops the UK in its tracks and discourages others which is expectable-can you see any reason why the UK would want a hard border?-Ireland is concerned about the possible effects of Brexit on the close relationship with the UK but that also works both ways-why would that relationship change if the UK wasn't in the EU without a backstop?-it's also in the UK interest to have this close relationship.
I want the UK to remain in the EU and using the same formula as some other posters I want it because the UK will return as of the 'big 3'-if you think the EU doesn't have a hierarchy maybe you need to look again.

There really is no need for the EU to go hard in the negotiations so far with the UK, by leaving they are showing other nations that if you decide to be part of the biggest single market in the world with all its rules, once you decide to leave it there will only be a downside to it. There is nothing they needed to do to show other countries it is a bad idea, it was obvious from the start it would be an act of self harm to do this. It is crazy that Cameron even thought this was a good idea to propose a referendum. He should never have mooted the idea but here we are.

I have to ask, what big decisions was in favour of Germany and France and the UK that was not in favour of the other EU nations? How is the backstop better for the "big 2" and not for Ireland or the Netherlands or Belgium who has a bigger amount of their exports as a percentage to the UK?

Just for reference, Ireland exports about 11% of our exports to the UK (excluding NI), the Netherlands about 9% of their exports to the UK, Belgium about 7%. France exports about 7% as well and Germany about 5%. All from Wikipedia (I know, but there are references to where they received their inform from)

Here is a website that has a handy map that shows the UK imports and exports around the world.

Who does the UK trade with?
Explore the UK's trade relationships through interactive maps, charts and analysis.

RobMc59

20silkcut wrote: »

A quick glance at British history would demonstrate why that is a difficult concept for them to understand.

On the contrary,the UK does understand the concept of hierarchy-imo it's better for the UK to remain in the EU-if you really think the larger nations don't call the shots that's your opinion but I disagree.

Enzokk

Just to pivot back to the upcoming vote, I don't know what to make of this other than no-one seems to know what is happening right now in the UK.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1068957826620551168

So Robert Peston has it on good authority that she will lose the vote by "nearly 400" yet she is keeping calm and carrying on.

I think the BBC reporter Chris Mason had it about right,

RobMc59

Calina wrote: »

I seem to recall "We want control of our borders" being a rationale for Brexit.

That includes the border landside of NI or don't you understand what the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is?

Your main concern is i assume how Brexit will impact Ireland-sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

Calina

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your main concern is i assume how Brexit will impact Ireland-sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

This comment in no way addresses my comments about Britain wanting to control its borders.

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your main concern is i assume how Brexit will impact Ireland-sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

It entered their heads when they threatened Ireland's economy over the backstop. Apart from that, you're right, not one Brexiteer has ever acknowledged the impact of Brexit on Ireland.

Nate--IRL--

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your main concern is i assume how Brexit will impact Ireland-sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

Indeed. And when Ireland acts toward it's own self interest in dealing with the fallout, this oversight is entirely the Brexiteers own blunder (among many other blunders).

It is not Ireland (or EU) punishing the UK. It is Ireland protecting itself as much as is possible in the situation thrust upon it.

Nate

RobMc59

Calina wrote: »

This comment in no way addresses my comments about Britain wanting to control its borders.

My point it that although Britain(brexiteers) has said it wants to control it's borders it's not an attack or slight on Ireland-Ireland isn't seen as a threat/rival in the power struggle the brexiteers have conned the UK into-Ireland is important to me personally but not to those people who have brought Britain to this-they don't care about their own country so they’re not going to worry about another.

20silkcut

RobMc59 wrote: »

On the contrary,the UK does understand the concept of hierarchy-imo it's better for the UK to remain in the EU-if you really think the larger nations don't call the shots that's your opinion but I disagree.

In the history of this country I don’t think any of us have ever seen Ireland in such a prominent position in international affairs whether or not we call the shots our interests are fully aligned and top of the agenda in a bloc of 500 million people we have never been in such a powerful position vis a vis the UK. This is mind bending to most brexiteers and astonishing to remainers in places like Scotland and Wales and NI who are having their wishes and interests completely ignored in Westminster.

[Deleted User]

RobMc59 wrote: »

My point it that although Britain(brexiteers) has said it wants to control it's borders it's not an attack or slight on Ireland-Ireland isn't seen as a threat/rival in the power struggle the brexiteers have conned the UK into-Ireland is important to me personally but not to those people who have brought Britain to this-they don't care about their own country so they’re not going to worry about another.

The very fundamental problem with this is that the UK has only one land border - the one with us that has caused years of trouble, which was essentially negotiated away via the EU single market and the GFA. Ireland isn't a threat but (the island of) Ireland bears all the costs.

Whatever the intentions good, bad or indifferent we bear substantial costs for someone else's decisions.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

Ì googled 'brexit effect on Ireland 2018'.

Ah,

Our report on Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland,
with the numbers and graphs and highlighting the issues was published by the Economic and Social Research Institute in November.

November 2015.

We we hear UK politicians arguing over what they've just realised or have have been corrected about regarding the implications of Brexit, the attitude over is "We've already gone over this, please try to keep up".

The economic impact figures people in the UK are finally waking up to now have been available for years - see the references in the above report. The only thing that's changed is that some of the "other channels associated with EU membership" are a little easier to assess three years later.

Galileo, customs form costs and queues, e-Border fantasy, NHS recruitment, Banks offshoring, delayed investments etc. etc.

Capt'n Midnight

Maggie pushed the Common Market hard, it's part of UK legacy in the EU.

The Common Market is now the only bit of the EU the Tories want to Remain in, and at the same time it's the bit Labour want to Leave.

Each side as bad as the other. The iceberg has been sighted and they are arguing over whether to fight over who will be in charge of re-arraigning the deckchairs or allowing the passengers to vote on launching the lifeboats.

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Ah,

Our report on Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland,
with the numbers and graphs and highlighting the issues was published by the Economic and Social Research Institute in November.

November 2015.

We we hear UK politicians arguing over what they've just realised or have have been corrected about regarding the implications of Brexit, the attitude over is "We've already gone over this, please try to keep up".

The economic impact figures people in the UK are finally waking up to now have been available for years - see the references in the above report. The only thing that's changed is that some of the "other channels associated with EU membership" are a little easier to assess three years later.

Galileo, customs form costs and queues, e-Border fantasy, NHS recruitment, Banks offshoring, delayed investments etc. etc.

If you want information on a subject how do you research it?Doesn't everyone look on line?-I'd also like to mention I disregarded the BBC and telegraph-the source I took as truthful was RTE.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

On the contrary,the UK does understand the concept of hierarchy-imo it's better for the UK to remain in the EU-if you really think the larger nations don't call the shots that's your opinion but I disagree.

Small countries are disproportionately strong in the EU compared to how their pure population or economy would suggest. If a sufficient number of the biggest countries decide in one direction, it can be difficult or impossible for smaller countries to contradict them - depending on the area of competencr. Describing this as the big countries "calling the shots" is misleading and inaccurate IMO however. It is certainly less so than describing the UK as a place where England "calls the shots"

First Up

RobMc59 wrote: »

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Ah,

Our report on Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland,
with the numbers and graphs and highlighting the issues was published by the Economic and Social Research Institute in November.

November 2015.

We we hear UK politicians arguing over what they've just realised or have have been corrected about regarding the implications of Brexit, the attitude over is "We've already gone over this, please try to keep up".

The economic impact figures people in the UK are finally waking up to now have been available for years - see the references in the above report. The only thing that's changed is that some of the "other channels associated with EU membership" are a little easier to assess three years later.

Galileo, customs form costs and queues, e-Border fantasy, NHS recruitment, Banks offshoring, delayed investments etc. etc.

If you want information on a subject how do you research it?Doesn't everyone look on line?-I'd also like to mention I disregarded the BBC and telegraph-the source I took as truthful was RTE.

If your research only extends as far as Googling something, you are a long way off the pace.