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What will the UK look like in 20 years?

steddyeddy

So the UK finally finds out Brexit is bad and they will be a poorer country under every deal or scenario the UK will be worse off post Brexit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-wages-theresa-may-gdp-deal-eu-latest-analysis-a8655746.html

My question isn't really about Brexit as it looks like it's happening. I'm just wondering exactly how poor the UK will become in the next decade if they'll be worse off in every scenario. I think it's remarkable to hear government ministers saying that their actions have led the country to be worse off. All of this started from a rivalry between two old Etonians too.

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SharpshooterTom

Demographically it will continue to change.

1981 - 96% White
1991 - 95% White
2001 - 92% White
2011 - 87% White
2021 - ???? (probably early 80s)

Western Europe is increasingly becoming a multiracial hub (which is a good thing IMO). In 20 years the UK white population will likely be in the 70s. Ireland will do so as well but it will take longer.

steddyeddy

Aegir wrote: »

Do you get invited to many parties?

Yes I do thanks

steddyeddy

Harry Angry Forehead wrote: »

There's no need to be racist towards the Greeks, she's your girlfriend after all! You should love each other.

You haven't experienced the pain of a fiery Greek.....

Franz Von Peppercorn

Aegir wrote: »

Do you get invited to many parties?

Do you argue points or just ad hominems?

Twenty Grand

The reports remind me of the run on Northern Rock bank back in 2007.

Round the clock news coverage, mass panic in the papers, but most people who weren't directly affected didn't give it a seconds thought.

2 years later we were all f*cked.

steddyeddy

timthumbni wrote: »

So you will be fine then.... and I’m sure there are plenty of countries elsewhere in the Eu where racial tensions aren’t rising that you will rush off to this new job in. Good luck.

I'll be fine Tim but I do actually care about British people. I was treated well here by most. My part of England is strongly remain though and I feel sorry for them.

prinzeugen

steddyeddy wrote: »

So the UK finally finds out Brexit is bad and they will be a poorer country under every deal or scenario the UK will be worse off post Brexit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-wages-theresa-may-gdp-deal-eu-latest-analysis-a8655746.html

My question isn't really about Brexit as it looks like it's happening. I'm just wondering exactly how poor the UK will become in the next decade if they'll be worse off in every scenario. I think it's remarkable to hear government ministers saying that their actions have led the country to be worse off. All of this started from a rivalry between two old Etonians too.

It will look the same. One persons opinion being reported as fact.

Has happened all though the whole Britex story. That twat Tony Connolly on RTE is the worst offender. Pushing his opinion as fact in his weekly articles. (Which are in breach of RTEs & the BSAI guidelines btw).

The massive issue with the media today is that one person can voice an opinion and it is taken as gospel even although the reality is different.

Just look at the state of the politics forum here. Opinions become fact and fact becomes trolling.

steddyeddy

prinzeugen wrote: »

It will look the same. One persons opinion being reported as fact.

Has happened all though the whole Britex story. That twat Tony Connolly on RTE is the worst offender. Pushing his opinion as fact.

The massive issue with the media today is that one person can voice an opinion and it is taken as gospel even although the reality is different.

Just look at the state of the politics forum here. Opinions become fact and fact becomes trolling.

You're confusing posts on a forum with a government report. The government's own advisors say every form of Brexit will leave the UK worse off.

prinzeugen

steddyeddy wrote: »

You're confusing posts on a forum with a government report. The government's own advisors say every form of Brexit will leave the UK worse off.

One report of many.. Look at Scotland. Independence would be great according to one report. Reality is they would be bankrupt now if the vote had gone the other way.

According to another report..

Its all just some self important twat giving an opinion. Thats what reports are.

steddyeddy

prinzeugen wrote: »

One report of many.. Look at Scotland. Independence would be great according to one report. Reality is they would be bankrupt now if the vote had gone the other way.

According to another report..

Its all just some self important twat giving an opinion. Thats what reports are.

I assume you treat the reports that Britain will be better off post Brexit the same?

prinzeugen

steddyeddy wrote: »

I assume you treat the reports that Britain will be better off post Brexit the same?

Its an unknown. Yes there is advantages but there could be pitfalls. I believe the UK is better off out.

It may not be a bed of roses to start with. If I put that in a report would it become fact do you think?

steddyeddy

prinzeugen wrote: »

Its an unknown. Yes there is advantages but there could be pitfalls. I believe the UK is better off out.

It may not be a bed of roses to start with. If I put that in a report would it become fact do you think?

If you backed it up with reality it would become more likely. Right now the report that cites trading economics carries more weight.

prinzeugen

steddyeddy wrote: »

If you backed it up with reality it would become more likely. Right now the report that cites trading economics carries more weight.

You cant back it up unless you have a time machine. Its like him telling you what next weeks lotto numbers are. Pure speculation.

The reality is the markets wont allow the UK to go tits up.

Anyway if Corbyn gets in power the Uk will resemble East Germany in the 80s.

Bankrupt and total surveillance of the population.

1984 is a novel not an instruction manual!

Gimme A Pound

John Sacrimoni wrote: »

Children of Men

Deleted User wrote: »

Was just thinking about this in one of the increasingly many crazy Brexit news revelations recently and 28 Days Later kept coming to mind.

I still don't think people fully get the historical magnitude of the populists taking over there. Future generations will have a much better awareness, even in 10 years time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCdRFMp8Xwo

V For Vendetta seems eerily close to reality for Britain now, in my opinion. I think V For Vendetta is set in the late 2010s also!

4068ac1elhodqr

Reckon Scotland will shortly leave, Ireland will become an economic union of sorts, Wales will have the begging cup out.
But even after all this, London will push for a 'full reversal', ideally closer ties with the 3/4 indepedent nations, and ultimately full euro-re-union.

By which time (2038) the EU will have taken the Western Balkands, Turkey, and have a very serious interest in Ukraine, and North Africa (Barcelona agreement).

2018's Universal Credit will be replaced with Universal Basic Income (sounds similar but very different).
Most folks will be twiddling their thumbs as a higer inteligence (ai) tells us what's best for us, and auto-task it upon itself.

Unless religion is banned outright by then (by the ai or spacefolks checking in), there will be widespread community tension as to who's godhead is the coolest.
The below graphic is a 'high sceanario' pattern, but even medium shows that the uk will be about 12% muslim as it approaches 2050.

/Otherwise, if brexit goes hard-on (the eu de-stabalises) the UK will instead search desperately for new full partnerships e.g. with the US (including free open movement of people, services and goods). We'll all take up baseball, rapping and the accents will become 'ever so valley'.

China will be the new bossman squirting it's soy sauce around, and all countries will need partnership agreements just to attempt to compete with the mighty dragon.

John Sacrimoni

Charli Shy Poet wrote: »

V For Vendetta seems eerily close to reality for Britain now, in my opinion. I think V For Vendetta is set in the late 2010s also!

Great movie!

John Sacrimoni

Dexter Vast Hanger wrote: »

Reckon Scotland will shortly leave, Ireland will become an economic union of sorts, Wales will have the begging cup out.
But even after all this, London will push for a 'full reversal', ideally closer ties with the 3/4 indepedent nations, and ultimately full euro-re-union.

By which time (2038) the EU will have taken the Western Balkands, Turkey, and have a very serious interest in Ukraine, and North Africa (Barcelona agreement).

2018's Universal Credit will be replaced with Universal Basic Income (sounds similar but very different).
Most folks will be twiddling their thumbs as a higer inteligence (ai) tells us what's best for us, and auto-task it upon itself.

Unless religion is banned outright by then (by the ai or spacefolks checking in), there will be widespread community tension as to who's godhead is the coolest.
The below graphic is a 'high sceanario' pattern, but even medium shows that the uk will be about 12% muslim as it approaches 2050.

/Otherwise, if brexit goes hard-on (the eu de-stabalises) the UK will instead search desperately for full partnership e.g. with the US (including free open movement of people, services and goods). We'll all take up baseball, rapping and the accents will become 'ever so valley'.

China will be the new bossman squirting it's soy sauces around, and all countries will need partnership agreements just to attempt to compete with the mighty dragon.

I hope im dead by the time Turkey get in.

prinzeugen

John Sacrimoni wrote: »

I hope im dead by the time Turkey get in.

And I hope I am dead before Scotland gets Independence.

mzungu

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The choices are

Leave with no deal - some politicians say it will be OK eventually, The Bank of England say instant recession.
Yes that's exactly what they said.

Remain - let's hit the reset button and never speak of this again.

It would change the pecking order in the backstabbing race to become leader of a very damaged Tory party.

Transition deal - It's damn near Brexit In Name Only. The can gets kicked. The actual deal is deferred. The economy still takes a hit. The clock can't be turned back. They become a third party country, and to rejoin the EU means loosing the special privileges they and taking the Euro and Schengen.

If only the UK had someone like John Hume who put ordinary people ahead of everything regardless of the cost.

Aka the Bobby Ewing in the shower option.

Gimme A Pound

John Sacrimoni wrote: »

Great movie!

One of my favourite movies. Haven't read the graphic novel though. Actually looked it up there - it's set in the 2030s but it refers back to the events in 2018 that lead to the world envisioned in the 2030s! :eek:

Gimme A Pound

prinzeugen wrote: »

And I hope I am dead before Scotland gets Independence.

What would be so bad about that?

prinzeugen

Charli Shy Poet wrote: »

What would be so bad about that?

Bankrupt. The SNP has the country on its knees as it is and blames London for all its failings.

An independent Scotland would turn into a SNP run dictatorship. Its scary looking at some of the stunts they pull. "Catch them young"!

They are known as the Scottish Nazi Party for a reason.

Unless you are wishing me dead.. Then its report button time!

arccosh

Take the oil and gas out of Scotland and you have Ireland....

Even if Scotland wanted independence, and wanted to join the EU.... even if it was fasttracked... if Brexit with a backstop happens... you're looking at 10-15 years minimum to get them in

batgoat

prinzeugen wrote: »

It will look the same. One persons opinion being reported as fact.

Has happened all though the whole Britex story. That twat Tony Connolly on RTE is the worst offender. Pushing his opinion as fact in his weekly articles. (Which are in breach of RTEs & the BSAI guidelines btw).

The massive issue with the media today is that one person can voice an opinion and it is taken as gospel even although the reality is different.

Just look at the state of the politics forum here. Opinions become fact and fact becomes trolling.

Connolly is internationally regarded as one of the best analysts on Brexit...

OldMrBrennan83

timthumbni wrote: »

So you will be fine then.... and I’m sure there are plenty of countries elsewhere in the Eu where racial tensions aren’t rising that you will rush off to this new job in. Good luck.

And there's the one and only reason the whole thing passed at all. "Out of our country you filthy forrin".

Graces7

I left mainland UK in 1992. Even in rural areas it was too overcrowded. Sought refuge on a UK North Sea island. But so did many others...

Came to Ireland in 2002 and no regrets. Far from it. I watch some of the youtube BBC programmes on homelessness, benefits, poverty etc. and would not recognise it as the UK I loved and grew up in.

Brexit is not really going to make any difference in that progression. In many ways, it is already a reality except in name.

What stands out is that their benefit system is not sustainable and nor are the measures that they are using to try to cut the cost.

beertons

Like a giant curry house.

Wanderer78

Graces7 wrote:

What stands out is that their benefit system is not sustainable and nor are the measures that they are using to try to cut the cost.

Austerity is hardly gonna solve that one!

High road

So in 2040 I think several trends will sorta have been turbo charged by brexit.

Politically there won't be any outside actor to blame - no more bloody brussels getting in the way - as an argument for policy failures. Essentially the buck will stop in London. The fig leaf of the EU will not be nearly so available for UK born mistakes. That's not to say the argument won't still be used tho. On that basis politics becomes a rougher game - labour in a poorer country push harder with benefits and social welfare. All the young corbynists now in their 20s are running the party. Some have moderated into a slightly more Blair like ethos but it's still heavily lefty. The Tories meanwhile are struggling, lots of moderates were discussed by the brexit infighting, though they try to retake the party they're be beaten by the true believers with a good base amongst the increasingly elderly party faithful. Over all it's moving to being almost an amerian republican lite party. Low tax and low welfare - which to be fair by 2040 the UK can I'll afford.

Population has boomed to over 75 million, bigger cities and especially London are getting less and less livable, transport infrastructure is creaking at the seams while services like the NHS and Met struggle badly. Prisons are squalid and over crowded, judges after a crisis of legitimacy over short sentences for violent and sexual offences have been far less lenient in their handing out of prison terms. Many britons with European passports have left, notably for Ireland, Spain and France.

Key Social issues concern religious freedom vs secular law. An effort to ban halal slaughtered meat by animal rights groups was recently passed but this lead to large protests by an increasingly vocal Muslim community. Elderly Care is also at the forefront of politics, a number of scandals at care homes and the high number of elderly poor, means it's a hot political issue as the society ages.

The wealthy have moved away from State services and now by and large pay themselves for private schooling, medical treatment and increasingly security. Test have been areas of solid growth, with private hospitals now accounting for a quarter of treatment. Despite labour's tax policies the rich have sequestered their money eithet off shore or in Bitcoin type assets. The average PAYE worker has a lower rate tax level of 35% with higher earners seeing taxes about 60%. Two widely accepted policies have been inheritance duties, and a land tax which to sone degree has cooled off the housing market.

Education wise there has been a divergence in University education, a top ten of places like imperial and Cambridge charge like US institutions, where's a larger rump group have had to slash costs or close. The student debt burden has undermined the ability of the young to start their lives, buy still expensive houses or form businesses. Many now see third level studies as a fools game. Social mobility has reversef, with little movement between the upper and lower social strata.

The royals enjoy an all time high level of repsect, they have avoided most scandal and are seen as one of the few stable institutions. King William is widely liked, tho a republican movement has also emerged on the left.

Media wise there are now two big papers the daily mail and guardian. Each with significant political clout The ft still exists and is the only one seen as neutral. The web has essentially destroyed the rest. The BBC meanwhile now only produces content, then idea of having to channels was seen as irrelevant by 2035. Most entertainment is found on Netflix and Amazon. Radio and podcasts as a medium have grown widely, although the space is fragmented and often given to extreme views. Tommy Robinson has a popular show.

Lastly economically british people have sone badly, the initial brexit shock was followed by a decade of stagnation. Known as the lost years 2025 to 2035 seen almost no wage growth and tell hollowing out of then city of London. Foreign firms and investors now own swaths of British industry and property. Test left in particular had been calling for sport to be nationalised after Saudi investors merged Tottenham and Arsenal so as to qualify for the European ultra league.

This is enjoyable fiction writing!

TomSweeney

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well I live here with my Greek girlfriend and we're both noticing it's getting more racist.

It's not really.