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Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

Autochange

Bear markets
Fud
Regulation
Wall Street manipulation
The supposed tether ticking time bomb

What are your thoughts? Have you cashed out? Have you been buying the dips?

MOD NOTE:
Its good to see healthy debate and discussion taking place and I am sure every supporter of cryptocurrency and blockchain can agree that the contrarian viewpoint is worthwhile reading, if only to act as an anchor and help prevent investors from getting carried away in an echo chamber of "everything is wonderful, just keep going"

However, there have been a few reported posts recently which I did not action as I wanted to see the thread level out itself rather than start forcing viewpoints and I have been in two minds about that decision.

I'm not going to single any posters out but I'm going to ask that all posters read the forum charter and I want to point out that it was established years ago in the Television forum, that dropping in on a forum to tell the followers of that forums topic (in that case a particular tv show) that it was all crap and only idiots watched it etc etc was the exact definition of being a dick and attempting to troll. I know this because I was the mod of the forum at the time. Now look at the forum charter again.

There is pretty much one rule on this forum : if you cannot discuss in a civil manner, and I mean discuss, not soapbox or attack, then you have absolutely no business posting here and I have no qualms about removing your ability to do so.

This forum is for people that have in interest in cryptocurrencies, blockchain and their application to financial investments. that can be positive or negative but if you really feel the need to start pulling out memes / hiding insults in imaginary hashtags / attacking personalities or just generally being a dick there are other forums you can post in where I will let the local mods determine if it is within the scope of allowable behaviour. Here, it is not.

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[Deleted User]

makeorbrake wrote:

They know that its not a flash in the pan and that its going to be around for many years to come. Otherwise, why are they all now investing in it? As regards setting a price, that's a different issue - but of course it's an issue as the same benchmarks can't be used as conventional stocks.

The what's in the whatsy now?

You do realise that everyone who bought into a pyramid scheme thought they were buying into the next big thing. They all thought that it would be around for years & that they would make money. The reality is that only a few early adocptors make money but the problem is that they make it off the backs of the late adocptors, the little guy.

Just because people rush into investing in something doesn't mean its a good investment or an investment at all for that matter

Muscles Schultz

Is now a good time to get a few of these bitycoins?

makeorbrake

Sleeper12 wrote: »

The what's in the whatsy now?

You do realise that everyone who bought into a pyramid scheme thought they were buying into the next big thing.

Except it's not a pyramid scheme. See definition above. People are (wrongly) trying to use this bs to tar and feather it.

It's volatile as hell and EVERYONE knows this. If people get greedy and lose their shirt, that's their issue.

Why the outrage at crypto with regard to speculative investment and not a word about day trading, swing trading, futures, forex, etc?

Sleeper12 wrote: »

The reality is that only a few early adocptors make money but the problem is that they make it off the backs of the late adocptors, the little guy.

The little guy suffers in conventional markets also. Furthermore, don't think this is the end - this cycle will repeat itself.

[Deleted User]

makeorbrake wrote:

and I quote... "A pyramid scheme (commonly known as pyramid scams) is a business model that recruits members via a promise of payments or services for enrolling others into the scheme"

That's Wikipedia. That's not fact. I can write what I want in Wikipedia.

I also said that crypto currency is "like" a Pyramid scheme. No assets & early adoptors make money off the back of the later adoptors. Your shares in a Pyramid scheme are based solely on supply & demand the same as crypto. If the crypto currency goes bust the investor doesn't get a penny because there are no assets. Nada. If the Pyramid investment goes bust the exact same thing happens. Zip, Nada

Can you explain /show in practical ways how it's not like a Pyramid scheme? You do know that unlike most "investments" you don't get a dividend from crypto. Your only possible chance for profits or even your money back is what someone else might be willing to pay

kaymin

makeorbrake wrote: »

Absolutely - that's how supply and demand works. As regards speculation being the driver, well we both know that is currently the dominant force based on the expectation of what's to come. Those that speculate may be off the mark. Nevertheless, the principal applies that supply relative to demand sets token price.

It needs to offer something different i.e. solve a problem that the other network doesnt. Other than that, who is priced out of using a blockchain network right now?

A better question is what is the volume of Blockchain transactions by coin and how have the volumes changed over the past, say 3 years.
Is that information available?

JJJJNR

Sleeper12 wrote: »

That's Wikipedia. That's not fact. I can write what I want in Wikipedia.

I also said that crypto currency is "like" a Pyramid scheme. No assets & early adoptors make money off the back of the later adoptors. Your shares in a Pyramid scheme are based solely on supply & demand the same as crypto. If the crypto currency goes bust the investor doesn't get a penny because there are no assets. Nada. If the Pyramid investment goes bust the exact same thing happens. Zip, Nada

Can you explain /show in practical ways how it's not like a Pyramid scheme? You do know that unlike most "investments" you don't get a dividend from crypto. Your only possible chance for profits or even your money back is what someone else might be willing to pay

So whats your opinion on dark pools, or worse the caymen islands, thats all ok I guess.

JJJJNR

kaymin wrote: »

A better question is what is the volume of Blockchain transactions by coin and how have the volumes changed over the past, say 3 years.
Is that information available?

It costs huge amounts of cash to get that type of information, or you could just use kaggle.

makeorbrake

Sleeper12 wrote:

That's Wikipedia. That's not fact. I can write what I want in Wikipedia.

This is getting ridiculous now. Ok, Oxford Dictionary then says the same thing.

Sleeper12 wrote: »

I also said that crypto currency is "like" a Pyramid scheme. No assets & early adoptors make money off the back of the later adoptors. Your shares in a Pyramid scheme are based solely on supply & demand the same as crypto. If the crypto currency goes bust the investor doesn't get a penny because there are no assets. Nada. If the Pyramid investment goes bust the exact same thing happens. Zip, Nada

I don't give a fiddlers. It's disingenuous - and it's been used across all forms of media to tar and feather crypto. It's a very important distinction. Use 'pyramid scheme' and it explicitly infers that someone has organised a con. That's not the case. It's a highly volatile investment ...or punt - if that's what you want to use - but nobody is conning anyone. Everyone makes their own decision. I'm not recruiting anyone and I hold crypto (and in case you're suggesting that by my posts here that I am, I'm doing a very lousy job at promoting given I have not disclosed which ones I'm holding!).

Sleeper12 wrote: »

Can you explain /show in practical ways how it's not like a Pyramid scheme?

How is forex/day trading/ swing trading any different?

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

A better question is what is the volume of Blockchain transactions by coin and how have the volumes changed over the past, say 3 years.
Is that information available?

I'm sure it is if you want to dig it out. I'm not sure where you're going with that though? I know bitcoin trading volume was reported as having surpassed that of paypal back in August if that helps?

kaymin

JJJJNR wrote: »

It costs huge amounts of cash to get that type of information, or you could just use kaggle.

Seems like basic information that any startup enterprise should be willing to collate and publicise, if nothing else than to promote their coin. But I understand a reluctance to do so as I expect actual usage levels are dismal.

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

But I understand a reluctance to do so as I expect actual usage levels are dismal.

FFS These are public blockchains! Go out and find the info if that's what you want but quit with the inaccurate nonsense. Trading volumes are freely available all over the web but I've spent enough time on this tonight. Go have a look at coinmarketcap to start with.

kaymin

makeorbrake wrote: »

I'm sure it is if you want to dig it out. I'm not sure where you're going with that though? I know bitcoin trading volume was reported as having surpassed that of paypal back in August if that helps?

When you say trading do you mean buying and selling bitcoins or using bitoins to transact in real world things.

JJJJNR

Eh I use free datasets from kaggle that list all crypto markets going back to 2013, it's all up there you just need a bit of patience and learn a basic bit of python.

kaymin

makeorbrake wrote: »

FFS These are public blockchains! Go out and find the info if that's what you want but quit with the inaccurate nonsense. Trading volumes are freely available all over the web but I've spent enough time on this tonight. Go have a look at coinmarketcap to start with.

Less of the anger.

You constantly promote cryptos. Surely you have some idea of the levels of adoption and how they have increased or decreased over time?

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

When you say trading do you mean buying and selling bitcoins or using bitcoins to transact in real world things.

If you want to make the point that the majority of trade is currently based around speculative investing, that's no secret. I don't know if anyone has broken it down between the two - but google it. I'd be interested in checking it out myself (if there was time for everything).

kaymin

makeorbrake wrote: »

If you want to make the point that the majority of trade is currently based around speculative investing, that's no secret. I don't know if anyone has broken it down between the two - but google it. I'd be interested in checking it out myself (if there was time for everything).

It's basic due diligence. Something that should be known before a penny is invested frankly.

JJJJNR

kaymin wrote: »

It's basic due diligence. Something that should be known before a penny is invested frankly.

Don't do it.

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

Less of the anger.

I won't apologise for it because you were suggesting that there was something underhand at play when its not possible on a public blockchain. It's kind of central to the whole thing.

kaymin wrote: »

You constantly promote cryptos.

Again - language. I 'discuss'. I don't 'promote' jack. I can list a shed load of flaws I've referred to surrounding crypto in discussions on here - it would be a long list.

kaymin wrote: »

Surely you have some idea of the levels of adoption and how they have increased or decreased over time?

I'm not going rummaging for stats on it right this minute as I've already spent much longer on this sub-forum tonight than I had envisaged.
However, I know that bitcoin hit a scaling issue that got laid bare at the time of the surge. That has affected uptake. Other proof of work based coins are similarly affected. Newer coins are addressing this but then they have not had the same road testing as BTC.
BTC is trying to get around this via layer 2 solutions. There were reports of some modest growth in LN usage recently - but all of this is still early.

Suffice it to say - real world usage is not where we would all like it to be rightn now. I'd imagine that the stats will reflect that - by all means, dig them out and report back and let us know.

So....getting to your point - if you wish to prove that real world usage is poor today, then sure - no question. Doesn't mean that it has to remain that way perennially.

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

It's basic due diligence. Something that should be known before a penny is invested frankly.

The point of this thread is not about my due diligence. :rolleyes:
Now, I was trying to be helpful in my last few posts WITHOUT going rummaging for the info to help YOU make YOUR point. If you have a point to make (and I believe I've probably already made it for you?), then go and make it.

Don't you worry your pretty little head about my due diligence.

kaymin

makeorbrake wrote: »

So....getting to your point - if you wish to prove that real world usage is poor today, then sure - no question. Doesn't mean that it has to remain that way perennially.

No it doesn't but any traditional start-up / tech company lives and dies by its quarterly reported growth rates. If you equate investing in crypto to investing in traditional stocks then cryptos should also be judged by the same criteria that traditional stocks are judged by. And by your own reckoning they have performed dismally. The rational thing to do is to sell out. And that's not to suggest Blockchain won't ultimately be a success.

kaymin

makeorbrake wrote: »

The point of this thread is not about my due diligence. :rolleyes:
Now, I was trying to be helpful in my last few posts WITHOUT going rummaging for the info to help YOU make YOUR point. If you have a point to make (and I believe I've probably already made it for you?), then go and make it.

Don't you worry your pretty little head about my due diligence.

Less of the condescension

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

No it doesn't but any traditional start-up / tech company lives and dies by its quarterly reported growth rates. If you equate investing in crypto to investing in traditional stocks then cryptos should also be judged by the same criteria that traditional stocks are judged by. And by your own reckoning they have performed dismally. The rational thing to do is to sell out. And that's not to suggest Blockchain won't ultimately be a success.

Have we not already established that conventional forms of assessments cant function when it comes to crypto for the most part?

We're talking about a tech that is still ironing out the knots. The ecosystem needs to be built out. According to your view, there would never be any early stage investment in anything.

kaymin

makeorbrake wrote: »

Have we not already established that conventional forms of assessments cant function when it comes to crypto for the most part?

We're talking about a tech that is still ironing out the knots. The ecosystem needs to be built out. According to your view, there would never be any early stage investment in anything.

No we haven't established that. That's your view but its wrong.

As I said, start-ups live and die by their growth rates. In what universe does that translate to 'there would be no early stage investment in anything'?

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

Less of the condescension

You can get off your high horse on that one. If you want to make a point, go out and get your own facts and data to support it. It's a bit rich asking me for the data and then clobbering me for not having it to hand!

Either you have sufficient interest in the discussion or you don't.

kaymin

makeorbrake wrote: »

You can get off your high horse on that one. If you want to make a point, go out and get your own facts and data to support it. It's a bit rich asking me for the data and then clobbering me for not having it to hand!

Either you have sufficient interest in the discussion or you don't.

Sorry but you've spent the guts of a year defending crypto without basic information on which to judge it. It's laughable.

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

No we haven't established that. That's your view but its wrong.

There was a question there but no problem. So is there anything else apart from growth rates that can be used with a technology that has as yet not settled and a more conventional tech startup? Do tell.

kaymin wrote: »

As I said, start-ups live and die by their growth rates. In what universe does that translate to 'there would be no early stage investment in anything'?

How would you have growth rates in something if the product is as yet not fully market ready? If something has potential at that stage, are you saying that nobody should put money into it?

makeorbrake

kaymin wrote: »

Sorry but you've spent the guts of a year defending crypto without basic information on which to judge it. It's laughable.

That's a lie. I've done no such thing - and just because you summon me to produce data to support your point - doesn't mean that I'm going to go running to get it.

It's absurd.

Find your own data to support your own points!

Otherwise, you have no idea what data - quantitative or qualitative - i've used to arrive at my own decisions. Must not have worked out too bad though given that I quit the day job.

TallyRand

A “tech” that is still ironing out the knots.

Ecosystems that have to be built.

Zealots where mentioned earlier, you are one makeorbrake.

Crypto is a niche for certain cohorts, not for adoption in the mainstream.

To switch a hypotethical scenario around, if offered every crypto nut a million in cash or a USB key with their a million value crypto of choice I have a funny feeling what they’d choose, they know where their bread is buttered.

In it for profit while sticking it to the G Man, nothing else, you can have all the ecosystems you want

makeorbrake

TallyRand wrote: »

A “tech” that is still ironing out the knots.

What's your point? Was the web/internet a finished tech in 1975, 85, 95, 05?

TallyRand wrote: »

Ecosystems that have to be built.

Again, is there a point?

TallyRand wrote: »

Zealots where mentioned earlier, you are one makeorbrake.

That my friend is where you are wrong. I can provide a long list of shortcomings I've found with cryptocurrency and blockchain. On the other hand, we figured out (that despite all your postings here) that you couldn't list one item that you found useful in blockchain tech - not one.
Now, WHO is the zealot?

TallyRand wrote: »

Crypto is a niche for certain cohorts, not for adoption in the mainstream.

We've been over this ground already. You seem to be talking about a straight swap out - sovereign currency for crypto. It's not an either/or scenario (aside from the fact that you only seem to think that blockchain tech implicates money and nothing else!).
Otherwise, your use of the word 'cohorts' betrays your lack of objectivity re. the tech.

TallyRand wrote: »

To switch a hypotethical scenario around, if offered every crypto nut a million in cash or a USB key with their a million value crypto of choice I have a funny feeling what they’d choose, they know where their bread is buttered.

Betrays a total lack of understanding of how a tech of this magnitude is developed but that's your problem.

TallyRand wrote: »

In it for profit while sticking it to the G Man, nothing else, you can have all the ecosystems you want

Is there something wrong with making a profit? As regards your sticking it to the man routine, it boils down to trustless systems. I prefer them to trusted systems. You're free to do as you wish...more fool you if that's your outlook.

el diablo

Muscles Schultz wrote: »

Is now a good time to get a few of these bitycoins?

Possibly a good time to start dollar cost averaging. Quite possible that we can go below $3,000 in the coming days and weeks though. I'll be reentering the market to purchase some BTC this week probably.

@makeorbrake: you're fighting an admirable battle trying to educate the skeptics. :cool: